Saturday, November 14, 2009

2010 ZiPS

The 2010 ZiPS Projections have been released, and here's what the 2010 Pirates, if they don't make any more moves, are profiled to hit:

CF - Andrew McCutchen (.281/15/72, 27 stolen bases)
2B - Akinora Iwamura (.286/4/31)
RF - Garrett Jones (.285/24/78)
C - Ryan Doumit (.276/12/52)
3B - Andy LaRoche (.260/12/61)
LF - Lasting Milledge (.272/9/42)
1B - Steve Pearce (.268/19/85)
SS - Ronny Cedeno (.252/9/38)

UT - Delwyn Young (.269/8/46)
UT - Ramon Vazquez (.253/4/24)
UT - Brandon Moss (.259/11/56)
UT - Jason Jaramillo (.264/6/36)
UT - Neil Walker (.260/16/84)

?? - Pedro Alvarez (.233/22/84 - 500 at bats)
?? - Jose Tabata (.266/6/37 - 400 at bats)

And yes, we'd like a shot of whatever they were drinking when they came up with Pearce and Walker's line. Still, an improvement over last year's projected production.

SP - Zach Duke (9-13/4.76)
SP - Paul Maholm (9-11/4.34)
SP - Ross Ohlendorf (7-12/5.03)
SP - Charlie Morton (11-11/4.12)
SP - Daniel McCutchen (8-13/4.99)

RP - Matt Capps (3-3/3.88)
RP - Joel Hanrahan (3-3/4.04)
RP - Evan Meek (1-1/4.55)
RP - Jeff Karstens (5-7/4.87)
RP - Kevin Hart (6-10/4.83)
RP - Jose Ascanio (3-4/4.32)
RP - Steve Jackson (3-5/5.02)

?? - Brad Lincoln (6-10/5.14 - 120 IP)
?? - Jeff Sues (3-5/4.92 - 80 IP)

We're thinking that the numbers on Ohlendorf, Meek, and to a degree, Morton, are skewed by sample size; none have very many innings yet. In fact, this is the area that should show the most fluctuation in projected performance. Except for a handful of guys, none of them has established much of a baseline yet.

Baseball Think Factory, which produces ZiPS, thinks:
"This will probably shock absolutely nobody, but the Pirates won't be a very good team in 2010.

The Bucs will spend 2010 trying to sort out some of the talent they've acquired in the last year. There's not a whole lot of must-play star talent that will make some of the decisions easy (aside from McCutchen), so the team's going to be tested at how to find playing time for all of Walker, Milledge, Tabata, and Moss, among other questions. Some of the non-stathead Pirate fans are going to continue to be unhappy because Doumit and Duke should be the next to go.

So, 2010? Don't count the Pirates on getting too far into the 70s in the win column, but there's a lot more hope with the future of the team, if they continue to do what they're doing."

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