ZiPS and Chones: The Bullpen

Here's the 2009 pre-season projections for the bullpen, shown as (W-L-S, ERA):

ABOVE PROJECTIONS:

Evan Meek (1-1-0, 3.45) ZiPS (2-3, 5.03) Chones (0-3, 4.33)
The Rule 5 pick paid dividends for the Pirates and is the logical challenger for Matt Capp's closer spot.

Steve Jackson (2-3-0, 3.14) ZiPS (5-7, 5.32) Chones (3-3, 4.58)
Yo-yo'ed back and forth, and is a good bridge pitcher when he can get his change up over the plate.

AS PROJECTED:

Jesse Chavez (1-4-0, 4.01) ZiPS (3-5, 4.96) Chones (4-4, 4.24)
Faded at the end, probably due to mental exhaustion with Grabow and Burnett gone and Meek and Hanrahan hurt. A tough projection because he had no MLB time, Chones nailed his performance while ZiPS missed pretty badly.

Joel Hanrahan (PIT 0-1-0, 1.72; COM 1-4-5, 4.78) ZiPS (5-4, 3.92) Chones (4-4, 3.93)
Different pitcher in Pittsburgh, maybe because he was removed from the closing pressure cooker and settled into a set-up role.

BELOW PROJECTIONS:

Jeff Karstens (4-6-0, 5.42) ZiPS (5-9, 5.18) Chones (6-6, 4.25)
Showed promise as a long man/spot starter in the pen; his stats suffered badly after his personal leave, followed closely by a back sprain.

Matt Capps (4-8-27, 5.80) ZiPS (5-3, 3.27) Chones (4-3, 3.48)
Still has the velocity, but lacking in command. Says he's going back to being a flame thrower instead of using so much off-speed stuff. A huge question mark going into 2010, and probably on the block if someone will overpay for him.

Under 20 innings: Jose Ascanio (PIT 0-1, 6.75; COM 0-2, 4.00; ZiPS 2-2 4.91; Chones 3-3, 4.58), Donnie Veal (1-0-0, 7.16; ZiPS 5-10, 5.95; Chones 5-9, 5.73), Chris Bootcheck (0-0-0, 11.05; ZiPS 1-3, 5.98; Chones 3-3, 4.14), Denny Baustista (1-1-0, 5.27; ZiPS 3-4 4.62; Chones 4-4, 4.23), Phil Dumatrait (0-2-0, 6.92; ZiPS 4-10, 5.88; Chones 3-4, 4.89), Tyler Yates (0-2-0, 7.50; ZiPS 3-4, 4.79; Chones 4-3, 4.08), Chris Hansen (0-0-0, 5.68; ZiPS 3-5, 4.82; Chones 4-3, 3.95), Eric Hacker (0-0-0, 6.00; COM 0-1 7.88; ZiPS 8-8 4.81; Chones 6-6, 5.07), and Anthony Claggett (0-0-0, 9.00 COM 0-0 27.00; ZiPS 5-5 5.10; Chones 2-3, 5.20)

Of this group, Ascanio, Yates and Hansen will start 2010 on the DL, Dumatrait has to show he's recovered his stuff after surgery, and Veal with join Indy's rotation. There's not a lot left to sort through after them.

The Pirates had a pretty good eye in putting this gang together. They need a preferably veteran lefty, and may be looking for a closer that doesn't bring the drama of Capps to the ninth inning. One word of warning; Hanrahan is the only guy with closer experience, and he was only 5-of-10 for the Nats. The rest of the staff went 0-for-8 in save chances in 2009.