Personnel Decisions Coming Up...

Red Letter Autumn Events - World Series, Halloween and the 2020 Roster:

Free Agency (day after World Series):
They have three guys who become FA's: Frankie Liriano, Melky Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall. None will be given qualifying offers and will hit the market. Frankie the likeliest to return and Melky may get a second look, too, as a vet who comes cheap, while Lonnie is a page turned.

Team Options (five days after World Series):
Starling Marte's option is for $11.5M ($2M buyout) with a second option in 2021, Chris Archer's is for $9M ($1.75M buyout), and is also good through 2021. We can't see them passing on either player this campaign.

Additions to the 40-Man (deadline November 20):
They now have nine players on the 60-day IL, and all but Chisenhall will be returned to the roster, which sits at 37 players now. That lineup includes Archer, Gregory Polanco, Kyle Crick, Nick Burdi, Chad Kuhl, Edgar Santana, Jason Martin, and Jameson Taillon (out for 2020). The Bucs have to make room for at least a couple of guys from the Rule 5 Draft, with Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz chief among them. Will Craig, a first-round pick in 2016, and pitchers Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce are in the mix.

Time for Oneil Cruz to go on the 40-man - photo MLB Pipeline

40-Man Players at Risk:
Between that jam and the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, the Pirates will have to remove as many as 10 players currently occupying a spot on their roster. Relievers Dovydas Neverauskas and Montana DuRapau weren’t called up in September despite the staff’s struggles, which doesn't bode well for their future with the organization. There are several other relievers who came and went throughout the season, late-season waiver claims and emergency depth arms who could be removed and replaced; Clay Holmes and Geoff Hartlieb saw a lot of action and they may make the cut; Wei-Chung Wang and Williams Jerez are lefties, and Yacksel Rios and Parker Markel also ate some innings. The Pirates have already outrighted C Catcher Steven Baron, IF Corban Joseph and IF Jake Elmore.

Arb-Eligible Players (deadline for tender offer December 2):
The arb-eligibles are Keone Kela (third year), Michael Feliz (second year), and Taillon, Bell, Adam Frazier, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, Elis Diaz, Erik Gonzalez, Chad Kuhl and Jake Elmore, who are all entering their first option season. Matt Schwarz's MLB Trade Rumor's estimated their worth to be: Bell: $5.9M; Kela: $3.4M; Musgrove: $3.4M; Frazier: $3.2M; Williams: $3M; Taillon: $2.3M; Diaz: $1.4M; Kuhl: $1.4M; Feliz: $1.2M; and Gonzalez: $800K.

Most are shoo-ins to be tendered, but there are a couple who may be a coin flip, González and Diaz. Gonzalez had a big closing month, batting .322 while showing some versatility. Diaz is another who can go either way - he hit just .241 with no power after a nice year in 2018, plus his fielding (and framing) are probably a part of the problem with Pirates pitching. We're guessing he's on the Tony Sanchez track if the Buccos can lure a veteran backstop.

Decision time on Eli - photo Pittsburgh Pirates

Needs:
Pitching - at least one mid-rotation starter with JT out for the year and another back end reliever, hopefully a guy who can hold an eighth-inning role if *cross fingers* Keone can claim the closer role.
Catching - Even if Diaz bounces back with the bat, he was the worst-rated catcher with 500 or more innings with a DRS of -23, and minuses in every fielding category.
Power -  Our guess is they hope Marte, Bell and Gregory Polanco become the 3-4-5 middle of the order; seems kinda far fetched to us. After that trio, Bryan Reynolds with 16 homers was the muscle man and may grow into a middle-lineup guy, but in a league that featured moon shots last year, easy runs are the coin of the realm, and the Bucs were short changed.

Strengths:
Starling Marte put up a nice year; he plays a premium position well and added 23 homers and a 123 OPS+. Some of the kids did come through, too. Bryan Reynolds made the loss of Corey Dickerson a little more bearable with 16 homers, a 131 OPS+ and at least average outfield play.

Kevin Newman held down short with a .308 BA, but his -6 DRS might indicate he's better suited to second base. Adam Frazier, for all the beefing, was capable there, hitting .278 with a 99 OPS+ and putting up a +6 DRS to become an unlikely Gold Glove finalist. Josh Bell was a hammer in the middle of the lineup, but ran hot and cold while his defense. He's cobbled together -14 DRS in his past two years. Colin Moran hit lefties as well as righties, had an 97 OPS+ and had trouble catching a cold.

Is K-Man the future at short?  - photo Pittsburgh Pirates

Jose Osuna and Jake Stallings have the look of competent bench guys, so the year wasn't a complete wash. A gang of complimentary, MLB average, players showed up, with a lot of defensive holes, but except for Bell, Marte and possible growth from Reynolds, no true impact players. The Bucs are counting on Gregory Polanco to become a difference maker, but he's 28, is still rehabbing from 2018 injuries, and has been consistently a .250 hitter w/the potential to hit 25 HR with a lifetime 100 OPS+. Those are the numbers of another complimentary player, not an impact bat.

The back end of the bullpen took hits, but will have Crick, Nick Burda and Edgar Santana back. Joe Musgrove showed potential, while Mitch Keller's FIP (3.19) and BABIP (.475!) give hope for an improved 2020 showing. Archie, Chad Kuhl and JT Brubaker should back in action and Dario Agrazal in the mix, but it's still a group that's thin at the top.