Quick Peek:
Pitching - the Bucs lack a go-to guy unless Mitch Keller turns it around. They recognize that fact by carrying 14 arms: five starters (Keller, Tyler Anderson, JT Brubaker, Wil Crowe and Chad Kuhl, with Steven Brault on the DL). four long man/starters (Trevor Cahill, Luis Oviedo, Chris Stratton and Duane Underwood Jr.) and five pure relievers (Dave Bednar, Kyle Crick, Michael Feliz, Sam Hward and Rich Rodriguez). Expect short starts, maybe some bullpenning, and early experimentation with a bullpen by committee, especially in high-leverage situations.
Infield - Ke'Bryan Hayes, Kevin Newman, Adam Frazier and Colin Moran will catch the ball a heckuva lot better, but there's a lot of doubles but not many long balls expected from that group. We think that Fraze will have another strong year even though much of Piratedom looks at him as a trade bauble. Erik Gonzalez and Phil Evans provide the back up; they're both adequate and also serve as the RH bench bats. The catching will be glove strong, but prob not much with the bat between Jake Stallings and Michael Perez, with Perez hopefully providing occasional lefty pop.
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| We're looking for good things from Fraze in 2021 - image Pirates |
Outfield - Pretty dang thin; Bryan Reynolds should be a keystone, but the jury is out on Gregory Polanco and Tony Alford. Dustin Fowler is the lefty fourth guy, with Evans capable of playing a corner spot as the RH pine piece. There's not a lot in the upper levels to push the gang, just Travis Swaggerty, Jared Oliva and Troy Stokes. It's a spot they definitely need to shore up.
Outlook - The pitching, this year more than ever, will be a team effort; Shelty is gonna shake 'n' bake until he finds a workable formula without a true rotation/backend go-to guy yet to emerge. The hitting will depend on bunching together hits; there won't be many three-run dingers to jump start things. It's not a strong division and the Pirates should be in the 75 win range.
Tomorrow's Opener:
Chad Kuhl & Kyle Hendricks start off the season at 2:20. It will be carried by AT&T SportsNet, 93.7 The Fan, 100.1 FM/KDKA-1020 AM, and the Pirates Radio Network.
Kuhl, 28, is making his first Opening Day trip to the hill after most pundits were debating whether he start or head to the pen a month ago. Chad has been a punching bag for Chicago with a 2-6/5.82 slash in 11 starts, so we hope for a change of direction. He only tossed eight innings in the spring, so it may turn into a bullpenning opener for Pittsburgh.
Hendricks, 30, is getting his second consecutive OD call for the Windy City. He's spent his seven-year career as a Cubbie with a 69-48/3.12 slash in 174 starts. Hendricks has pitched well against the Buccos with a 3.02 ERA in 19 lifetime starts, but with a so-so 6-8 result.
I largely concur with your team analysis. The bench is paper thin and as long as pitchers are still coming to the plate in the National League, they will need more than just 3 guys they can call on (forget using the other catcher as a pinch hitter unless he is coming into the game behind the dish). This is why I was so bent about a veteran with some pop such as Todd Frazier getting kicked to the curb despite his 218 career HR on a team that, as you say, will hit lots of doubles but not many balls over the fence. And also because there isn't a lot in the upper minors to push the existing position players for playing time, especially in the outfield. I do think we may see Travis Swaggerty get some at-bats this year if he does well down on the farm. Tony Alford could end up a real find; sometimes high pedigree guys like him just need to get away from their original organizations before they blossom and their real talent comes out.
ReplyDeleteAll in all I don't see the Cherington Bucs bottoming out to nearly the same degree that we saw under Huntington-Coonelly. This team may actually be halfway watchable. I suppose both Polanco and Frazier are likely to be dealt, and if they play well prior to getting traded their loss will obviously hurt in the short term. Even so, I don't see 100 losses and they may even sneak in under the 90 level. I figure 3 years until we see what kind of team Cherington is really building.
PS Just saw your blurb about Todd Frazier coming back on a minor league deal. Okay, that makes more sense. We'll see if he has anything left down at Triple-A Indianapolis and if the pitching sorts itself out in some kind of more or less normal way, then maybe he will contribute this season. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteYah, lotta holes yet, Wil - 1B, C, OF, pitching... I agree about a 2024 window; three years seems about the right timeframe considering the resources.
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