OK, the Pirate payroll is starting to fall in line now - 4 arb players, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, John Grabow, and Tyler Yates, signed on the dotted line; Paul Maholm and Nate McLouth are playing it out a little longer, having exchanged arbitration figures with the team, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette. The payroll so far:
Jack Wilson, SS - $7.25M (club option $8.4M in 2010 with $600K buyout)
Adam LaRoche, 1B - $7.05M (2010 free agency year)
Freddy Sanchez, 2B - $6.1M (club option $8M in 2010 with $600K buyout)
Ian Snell, SP - $3M ($4.25M in 2010, club option in 2011 for $6.75M, club option in 2011 for $9.75M)
Nate McLouth, OF - exchanged salary figures; $2.75M team; $3.8M, player (2010 and 2011 - arbitration years)
Paul Maholm, SP - exchanged salary figures; $2.65 team; $3.8M, player (2010 and 2011 - arbitration years)
Matt Capps, RP - $2.3M (2010 and 2011 - arbitration years)
John Grabow, RP - $2.3M (2010 free agency year)
Zach Duke, SP - $2.2M (2010 and 2011 - arbitration years)
Ryan Doumit, C - $2.05M ($3.55M in 2010, $5.1M in 2011, club option for next two years must be exercised in 2012; $7.25M in 2012, $8.25M in 2013 with $500K buyout)
Ramon Vazquez, IF - $2M ($2M in 2010 - not sure of annual splits, 2-year deal for $4M)
Tyler Yates, RP - $1.3M (2010 - arbitration year)
With the gap between the Pirates and their two arb guys, the payroll for the dozen signed players will fall between $40.95M - $43.15M. Throw in thirteen near or minimum wage workers and a few bucks to pay off Matt Morris and a couple of other ex-Bucs, and you have a base payroll in the range of $49 or $50M as it now stands, without bonuses or incentives.
Last year's opening day payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, was $48.7M.
So much for rolling in the extra cash freed up by dumping Jay Bay and Matty Mo's money, hey?
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Monday, January 19, 2009
Were the 1969 Steelers the 2009 Pirates?
Ya know, GW enjoyed crossing over and watching the Black and Gold hammer its way into the Super Bowl. The Steelers were so good that they could afford squandering opportunity after opportunity to put away an excellent Baltimore eleven, and that's impressive. Just ask Tennessee or Miami.
But GW remembers the days of "Hey diddle diddle, Rogel up the middle" and the gridders' sad sack history, the groans of "Same Old Steelers" and gnashing of teeth over the tight purse strings of the now beloved Chief, Art Rooney.
In other words, the Steelers of yore were the Pirates of today.
But in 1969, the Steeler's began an era of success that most fans consider to be their rightful legacy; most don't remember the bad ol' days. And maybe that offers a glimpse into the Pirate blueprint going down the road.
The most obvious sea change was bringing in Chuck Noll to coach, and that professionalized the whole organization, bringing an outsiders perspective to the Steelers. He built a whole new culture on the North Side, much like Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington are doing now in the Pirate offices.
One major change was instead of signing vets whose better days were behind them, the suits turned to the draft to revitalize the team. Art Rooney Jr., scouting guru, was suddenly appreciated, and his skills and focus were sharpened by head-butting sessions with Emperor Chaz. Bill Nunn beat the bushes of the small black college circuit, turning up gem after gem for the team.
The team turned over personnel almost overnight, getting younger, stronger, and faster. But the transition wasn't easy by any stretch of the imagination. They had just one win in Noll's opening campaign, and it took four years to reach the promised land of playoff football.
But once they got there, the system was in place, and generally fed on itself. There were some down times, to be sure, but drafting new blood and judiciously bringing in free agents for targeted positions filled the gaps. They've qualified for the post season 24 times since 1972, and brought home the crown five times.
How does this correspond to the Pirates' new trail blazers? Well, there are certain similarities.
The Pirates are stripping down the team, preparing for a brave new world of competitive ball a couple of seasons down the road. The Steelers won just a dozen games in three seasons until they broke out with Franco's Immaculate Reception. So you have to stay the course and keep building the roster until you reach a critical mass of talent, and it's not a quick or painless process.
Second, player evaluation and scouting were finally accepted as the key component to replenishing the organization. Greg Smith seems to have a much better eye for talent (and a much larger budget for signing them) than Ed Creech, and Rene Gayo is taking the role of Bill Nunn, scouring the Latino sandlots, baseball's equivalent of the traditionally black college beat.
Will the Pirates be able to successfully bring in free agents like the Steelers? That has yet to be seen - first, you need pieces to fill, not a tabula rosa, before that road is taken. And to their credit, they're not bringing in has-beens to placate the fans and present potential blocks for the youngsters.
There is, of course, one difference. The Steelers operated without a cap until 1994, and did pretty well, making 14 playoff appearances in 22 years beginning in 1972. The did OK with the cap, too, reaching the post season 10 times in 15 years. But there was one huge game-breaker involved in that deal.
The Steelers non-capped years coincided with the NFL's lack of free agency. Guys with Pittsburgh were basically Black and Gold property, much like the pre-Curt Flood days of baseball.
When free agency was granted in 1992, the league quickly adopted a cap in 1994 when they saw how the escalation in player contracts was threatening to cause a huge divide in the league's competitive balance. They also don't guarantee contracts, although bonus money is carried on the books for the length of the deal as "dead" money.
That sword swings both ways - the NFL is now considering scrapping the cap after the 2010 season, so obviously they don't consider it a cure-all in its present form.
The Pirate 2008 financials, as far as we can figure, are $139M in revenues, according to Forbes Magazine, with $50.8M spent on payroll, or about 37%. Pittsburgh is among the bottom dwellers in both figures.
The NFL cap is set at about 60% of league-average revenues, but they don't have to support the costs of a minor-league system, thanks to the NCAA. The cap and the amount plowed back into salaries helps mitigate the effects of free agency to a degree.
You can look at the Bucs payroll a couple of ways - it's less than a quarter of the Evil Empire's checkbook, but just $200K less than Tampa Bay's salaries. The key is how you spend your money, not how much you toss around, though more cash does make it easier to overcome the clunker deals that are killers to smaller franchises and just cash burners to the big boys.
The lesson to be learned here from the Steelers is that with some team-building skills - a mix of pups, contract extensions, and minimal and targeted free agent signings - you can compete in Pittsburgh no matter what system is in place.
The Steeler template of 1969 - change the culture, blow up the team, draft some talent, and ride out the growing pains while working within the economic system of the times - looks a lot like the Pirate roadmap of today. Let's hope they can pull it off half as well.
But GW remembers the days of "Hey diddle diddle, Rogel up the middle" and the gridders' sad sack history, the groans of "Same Old Steelers" and gnashing of teeth over the tight purse strings of the now beloved Chief, Art Rooney.
In other words, the Steelers of yore were the Pirates of today.
But in 1969, the Steeler's began an era of success that most fans consider to be their rightful legacy; most don't remember the bad ol' days. And maybe that offers a glimpse into the Pirate blueprint going down the road.
The most obvious sea change was bringing in Chuck Noll to coach, and that professionalized the whole organization, bringing an outsiders perspective to the Steelers. He built a whole new culture on the North Side, much like Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington are doing now in the Pirate offices.
One major change was instead of signing vets whose better days were behind them, the suits turned to the draft to revitalize the team. Art Rooney Jr., scouting guru, was suddenly appreciated, and his skills and focus were sharpened by head-butting sessions with Emperor Chaz. Bill Nunn beat the bushes of the small black college circuit, turning up gem after gem for the team.
The team turned over personnel almost overnight, getting younger, stronger, and faster. But the transition wasn't easy by any stretch of the imagination. They had just one win in Noll's opening campaign, and it took four years to reach the promised land of playoff football.
But once they got there, the system was in place, and generally fed on itself. There were some down times, to be sure, but drafting new blood and judiciously bringing in free agents for targeted positions filled the gaps. They've qualified for the post season 24 times since 1972, and brought home the crown five times.
How does this correspond to the Pirates' new trail blazers? Well, there are certain similarities.
The Pirates are stripping down the team, preparing for a brave new world of competitive ball a couple of seasons down the road. The Steelers won just a dozen games in three seasons until they broke out with Franco's Immaculate Reception. So you have to stay the course and keep building the roster until you reach a critical mass of talent, and it's not a quick or painless process.
Second, player evaluation and scouting were finally accepted as the key component to replenishing the organization. Greg Smith seems to have a much better eye for talent (and a much larger budget for signing them) than Ed Creech, and Rene Gayo is taking the role of Bill Nunn, scouring the Latino sandlots, baseball's equivalent of the traditionally black college beat.
Will the Pirates be able to successfully bring in free agents like the Steelers? That has yet to be seen - first, you need pieces to fill, not a tabula rosa, before that road is taken. And to their credit, they're not bringing in has-beens to placate the fans and present potential blocks for the youngsters.
There is, of course, one difference. The Steelers operated without a cap until 1994, and did pretty well, making 14 playoff appearances in 22 years beginning in 1972. The did OK with the cap, too, reaching the post season 10 times in 15 years. But there was one huge game-breaker involved in that deal.
The Steelers non-capped years coincided with the NFL's lack of free agency. Guys with Pittsburgh were basically Black and Gold property, much like the pre-Curt Flood days of baseball.
When free agency was granted in 1992, the league quickly adopted a cap in 1994 when they saw how the escalation in player contracts was threatening to cause a huge divide in the league's competitive balance. They also don't guarantee contracts, although bonus money is carried on the books for the length of the deal as "dead" money.
That sword swings both ways - the NFL is now considering scrapping the cap after the 2010 season, so obviously they don't consider it a cure-all in its present form.
The Pirate 2008 financials, as far as we can figure, are $139M in revenues, according to Forbes Magazine, with $50.8M spent on payroll, or about 37%. Pittsburgh is among the bottom dwellers in both figures.
The NFL cap is set at about 60% of league-average revenues, but they don't have to support the costs of a minor-league system, thanks to the NCAA. The cap and the amount plowed back into salaries helps mitigate the effects of free agency to a degree.
You can look at the Bucs payroll a couple of ways - it's less than a quarter of the Evil Empire's checkbook, but just $200K less than Tampa Bay's salaries. The key is how you spend your money, not how much you toss around, though more cash does make it easier to overcome the clunker deals that are killers to smaller franchises and just cash burners to the big boys.
The lesson to be learned here from the Steelers is that with some team-building skills - a mix of pups, contract extensions, and minimal and targeted free agent signings - you can compete in Pittsburgh no matter what system is in place.
The Steeler template of 1969 - change the culture, blow up the team, draft some talent, and ride out the growing pains while working within the economic system of the times - looks a lot like the Pirate roadmap of today. Let's hope they can pull it off half as well.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
CHONE 2009 - Pirate Pitchers
OK, today we look at the CHONE projections for the Bucco staff. One of the problems with projections, of course, is that they depend on a certain baseline of work for accurate results. The more innings under your belt, the better the projection.
Most of the bullpen has pitched long enough for a credible history, although Sean Burnett is still haunted from his line as a failed starter. But only half the starters have enough time in service to chart with any degree of accuracy.
So we're just taking a look at, first, what a normal season should be after last season's debacle, and second, a comparison of the pitchers on hand, especially the new and young arms.
Starters:
LH Paul Maholm (175 innings, 9-10, 4.32 ERA)
LH Tom Gorzelanny (151 innings, 8-9, 4.41 ERA)
RH Ian Snell (174 innings, 9-10, 4.50 ERA)
RH Jeff Karstens (107 innings, 5-6, 4.54 ERA)
LH Zach Duke (164 innings, 8-10, 4.66 ERA)
RH Daniel McCutchen (120 innings, 6-8, 4.80 ERA)
LH Phil Dumatrait (57 innings, 3-4, 4.89 ERA)
RH Jimmy Barthmaier (117 innings, 5-8, 4.92 ERA)
LH Donnie Veal (123 innings, 5-9, 5.85 ERA - probably will work out of the pen)
So CHONE has the staff rebounding. Pitchers are notoriously difficult to slot; most have considerable swings in ERA, wins, and innings from year to year. But it does show the major weakness in the constitution of the Pirate pitching - everyone fits into the 3-4-5 end of the rotation, and no one rises to the top.
Snell, Gorzo, and Maholm are the three to watch. Snell has top of the order stuff, and the other two should fall in behind him. If two of the three come through, the staff should be competitive.
And they need to; CHONE only projects 40 wins or so out of the top five pitchers, and that makes for a long year. Last season, the starters only put together 34 wins, the same number Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly notched by themselves for the Cubs; the other half came from the overused and overexposed Pirate pen.
If they don't...well, McCutchen may have mid-order potential one day, and it's gonna be a long time until Brad Lincoln and Bryan Morris will be ready for the show. And that's about it for the foreseeable future.
And no, we didn't forget about Ross Ohlendorf. Sean Smith at CHONE has him as a bullpen guy. Maybe he knows something we don't...
Relievers:
RH Matt Capps (62 innings, 4-3, 3.48 ERA)
RH Juan Mateo (47 innings, 3-2, 3.83 ERA)
RH Ross Ohlendorf (64 innings, 4-3, 3.94 ERA)
LH John Grabow (66 innings, 4-3, 3.95 ERA)
RH T.J. Beam (64 innings, 4-3, 4.08 ERA)
RH Tyler Yates (64 innings, 4-3, 4.08 ERA)
RH Brian Slocum (48 innings, 3-3, 4.13 ERA)
RH Craig Hansen (65 innings, 4-4, 4.15 ERA)
RH Denny Bautista (66 innings, 4-4, 4.23 ERA)
RH Jesse Chavez (60 innings, 4-4, 4.24 ERA)
RH Chris Bootcheck (50 innings, 3-3, 4.32 ERA)
RH Evan Meek (52 innings, 3-3, 4.33 ERA)
LH Sean Burnett (61 innings, 3-4, 4.72 ERA)
LH Daniel Haigwood (47 innings, 2-3, 4.98 ERA - will probably start at Indy)
RH Romulo Sanchez (52 innings, 2-3, 5.19 ERA)
What's it tell us? Just what we've always known. The Bucs have always been fairly deep in the pen compared to the rotation, and seem to have forged a master mold of arms (not a lot of difference from Beam to Meek, according to CHONE) available as interchangeable parts as performance and injury require.
Mateo and Slocum are rated higher than we thought; they could be interesting guys to watch in Bradenton, although both are probably predestined to land at Indy.
The obvious concern is that without Damaso Marte, the team is noticeably short handed from the left side, especially if the suits find a taker for Grabow. Maybe Veal can pick up the slack, but that's a big if for a Rule 5 pick-up looking for a spot.
Just making the team would be a major accomplishment for him. And if he sticks, we see an Evan Meek template of sorts in the making - back to the minors in 2010 for a spell to work on becoming a starter, where his value to the team would skyrocket.
And speaking of making the team, what better way to segue into CHONE's look at the farm:
Starters:
RH Yoslan Herrera (106 innings, 5-7, 5.18 ERA)
RH Derek Hankins (111 innings, 4-8, 5.59 ERA)
RH Michael Crotta (111 innings, 4-8, 5.68 ERA)
LH Corey Hamman (102 innings, 4-7, 5.74 ERA)
LH Anthony Watson (91 innings, 3-7, 6.13 ERA)
LH Brian Holliday (92 innings, 3-7, 6.13 ERA)
RH Brad Lincoln (51 innings, 2-4, 6.18 ERA - first season back from TJ surgery)
LH Daniel Moskos (72 innings, 2-6, 6.25 ERA - probably destined for bullpen)
RH Jared Hughes (103 innings, 3-8, 6.64 ERA)
RH Bryan Morris - not rated by CHONE.
Don't weep quite yet - all these guys are young. Littlefield didn't leave much in the system, and it shows. There's a huge gap in MLB ready arms in the organization, and that's why the team was blown up last season - to buy time for the future.
Relievers:
RH Jeff Sues (34 innings, 1-2, 5.03 ERA)
LH Dave Davidson (44 innings, 2-3, 5.32 ERA)
RH Matt McSwain (27 innings, 1-2, 5.53 - starts in minors)
RH Eric Krebs (30 innings, 1-2, 5.70 ERA - starts in minors)
RH Ronald Uviedo (26 innings, 1-2, 6.58 ERA)
As for this gang, all the AAA arms will have an audition in spring training, and if you're in the minors and used out of the bullpen for anything other than closing, well, that's not a great career path to be on. Sues and Uviedo, though, have the potential to reach PNC as contributing arms.
We knew the pitching was Pittsburgh's Achille's heel. The projections show it, and the fact that 14 of the 23 guys going to spring training this year are Huntington pick-ups confirms the tale.
Most of the bullpen has pitched long enough for a credible history, although Sean Burnett is still haunted from his line as a failed starter. But only half the starters have enough time in service to chart with any degree of accuracy.
So we're just taking a look at, first, what a normal season should be after last season's debacle, and second, a comparison of the pitchers on hand, especially the new and young arms.
Starters:
LH Paul Maholm (175 innings, 9-10, 4.32 ERA)
LH Tom Gorzelanny (151 innings, 8-9, 4.41 ERA)
RH Ian Snell (174 innings, 9-10, 4.50 ERA)
RH Jeff Karstens (107 innings, 5-6, 4.54 ERA)
LH Zach Duke (164 innings, 8-10, 4.66 ERA)
RH Daniel McCutchen (120 innings, 6-8, 4.80 ERA)
LH Phil Dumatrait (57 innings, 3-4, 4.89 ERA)
RH Jimmy Barthmaier (117 innings, 5-8, 4.92 ERA)
LH Donnie Veal (123 innings, 5-9, 5.85 ERA - probably will work out of the pen)
So CHONE has the staff rebounding. Pitchers are notoriously difficult to slot; most have considerable swings in ERA, wins, and innings from year to year. But it does show the major weakness in the constitution of the Pirate pitching - everyone fits into the 3-4-5 end of the rotation, and no one rises to the top.
Snell, Gorzo, and Maholm are the three to watch. Snell has top of the order stuff, and the other two should fall in behind him. If two of the three come through, the staff should be competitive.
And they need to; CHONE only projects 40 wins or so out of the top five pitchers, and that makes for a long year. Last season, the starters only put together 34 wins, the same number Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly notched by themselves for the Cubs; the other half came from the overused and overexposed Pirate pen.
If they don't...well, McCutchen may have mid-order potential one day, and it's gonna be a long time until Brad Lincoln and Bryan Morris will be ready for the show. And that's about it for the foreseeable future.
And no, we didn't forget about Ross Ohlendorf. Sean Smith at CHONE has him as a bullpen guy. Maybe he knows something we don't...
Relievers:
RH Matt Capps (62 innings, 4-3, 3.48 ERA)
RH Juan Mateo (47 innings, 3-2, 3.83 ERA)
RH Ross Ohlendorf (64 innings, 4-3, 3.94 ERA)
LH John Grabow (66 innings, 4-3, 3.95 ERA)
RH T.J. Beam (64 innings, 4-3, 4.08 ERA)
RH Tyler Yates (64 innings, 4-3, 4.08 ERA)
RH Brian Slocum (48 innings, 3-3, 4.13 ERA)
RH Craig Hansen (65 innings, 4-4, 4.15 ERA)
RH Denny Bautista (66 innings, 4-4, 4.23 ERA)
RH Jesse Chavez (60 innings, 4-4, 4.24 ERA)
RH Chris Bootcheck (50 innings, 3-3, 4.32 ERA)
RH Evan Meek (52 innings, 3-3, 4.33 ERA)
LH Sean Burnett (61 innings, 3-4, 4.72 ERA)
LH Daniel Haigwood (47 innings, 2-3, 4.98 ERA - will probably start at Indy)
RH Romulo Sanchez (52 innings, 2-3, 5.19 ERA)
What's it tell us? Just what we've always known. The Bucs have always been fairly deep in the pen compared to the rotation, and seem to have forged a master mold of arms (not a lot of difference from Beam to Meek, according to CHONE) available as interchangeable parts as performance and injury require.
Mateo and Slocum are rated higher than we thought; they could be interesting guys to watch in Bradenton, although both are probably predestined to land at Indy.
The obvious concern is that without Damaso Marte, the team is noticeably short handed from the left side, especially if the suits find a taker for Grabow. Maybe Veal can pick up the slack, but that's a big if for a Rule 5 pick-up looking for a spot.
Just making the team would be a major accomplishment for him. And if he sticks, we see an Evan Meek template of sorts in the making - back to the minors in 2010 for a spell to work on becoming a starter, where his value to the team would skyrocket.
And speaking of making the team, what better way to segue into CHONE's look at the farm:
Starters:
RH Yoslan Herrera (106 innings, 5-7, 5.18 ERA)
RH Derek Hankins (111 innings, 4-8, 5.59 ERA)
RH Michael Crotta (111 innings, 4-8, 5.68 ERA)
LH Corey Hamman (102 innings, 4-7, 5.74 ERA)
LH Anthony Watson (91 innings, 3-7, 6.13 ERA)
LH Brian Holliday (92 innings, 3-7, 6.13 ERA)
RH Brad Lincoln (51 innings, 2-4, 6.18 ERA - first season back from TJ surgery)
LH Daniel Moskos (72 innings, 2-6, 6.25 ERA - probably destined for bullpen)
RH Jared Hughes (103 innings, 3-8, 6.64 ERA)
RH Bryan Morris - not rated by CHONE.
Don't weep quite yet - all these guys are young. Littlefield didn't leave much in the system, and it shows. There's a huge gap in MLB ready arms in the organization, and that's why the team was blown up last season - to buy time for the future.
Relievers:
RH Jeff Sues (34 innings, 1-2, 5.03 ERA)
LH Dave Davidson (44 innings, 2-3, 5.32 ERA)
RH Matt McSwain (27 innings, 1-2, 5.53 - starts in minors)
RH Eric Krebs (30 innings, 1-2, 5.70 ERA - starts in minors)
RH Ronald Uviedo (26 innings, 1-2, 6.58 ERA)
As for this gang, all the AAA arms will have an audition in spring training, and if you're in the minors and used out of the bullpen for anything other than closing, well, that's not a great career path to be on. Sues and Uviedo, though, have the potential to reach PNC as contributing arms.
We knew the pitching was Pittsburgh's Achille's heel. The projections show it, and the fact that 14 of the 23 guys going to spring training this year are Huntington pick-ups confirms the tale.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
CHONE 2009 - Pirate Position Players
OK, as my good bud and collaborator Will notes, CHONE projections tend towards the norm, evening out the breakout seasons with the complete falls from grace. Still, as a team projection, they're OK, assuming that as many guys will perform above the norm as below in any given season.
We thought we'd take a look at them not so much as a prognostication tool, but as a basis for comparison between the starting lineup and what's behind it - how, for example, do Moss, Pearce and Monroe match up, or little LaRoche, Vazquez, Phillips, and Walker, or McCutchen and Morgan? Is there any depth?
Here's what CHONE's Sean Smith figures the lines that the 2009 starting position players should produce based on past performance:
1B: Adam LaRoche (504 at-bats, .264/23/84)
2B: Freddy Sanchez (548 at-bats, .290/8/60)
SS: Jack Wilson (484 at-bats, .273/7/41)
3B: Andy LaRoche (403 at bats, .256/13/59)
CA: Ryan Doumit (384 at bats, .281/14/60)
LF: Nyjer Morgan (442 at bats, .276/2/33)
CF: Nate McLouth (438 at bats, .274/16/53)
RF: Brandon Moss (476 at bats, .267/13/68)
Hmmm...it'll interesting to see what John Russell does for a middle-of-the-order with that collection. If Smith is right, runs will be hard to come by next season, but we saw that over the last two months of 2008, and you don't need a sabermetric system to draw that conclusion. It's a no-brainer.
Of a little more interest, to GW at least, is what CHONE thinks of the troops Neal Huntington and crew brought in to plump out the roster and fill in at Indy.
IF: Garrett Jones (1B - 506 at bats, .259/20/83); Ramon Vazquez (339 at bats, .251/6/35); Andy Phillips (317 at bats, .271/11/43); Luis Cruz (457 at bats, .247/7/47); Brian Bixler (465 at bats, .245/6/42).
C: Jason Jamarillo (429 at bats, .256/7/49); Robinzon Diaz (401 at bats, .279/3/48).
OF: Steve Pearce (481 at bats, .266/17/79); Craig Monroe (438 at bats, .257/17/69); Jeff Salazar (385 at bats, .255/8/46).
Hey, there's a little potential there. Pittsburgh has some alternatives in the OF, Jones and Pearce could be a fairly equivalent platoon at first if big bro LaRoche goes, and Phillips wouldn't be a noticeable downgrade at third if little LaRoche takes a swan dive. But the middle of the infield is weaker without the old heads, Wilson and Sanchez, manning their familiar spots.
People remember that the pitching spots were written in stone during camp last year, but they forget how little competition there was for bench spots. Maybe this year the young guys and the vet fill-ins will have to wage a bit of a battle to earn that seat on the pine. Russell doesn't seem adverse to platooning guys; maybe he'll have a couple more options this season.
And now - what does CHONE project the young guns will do if they get the call to the show?
1B: Jason Delaney (457 at bats, .247/7/55); Jamie Romak (408 at bats, .199/14/54)
2B: Shelby Ford (379 at bats, .253/4/40)
SS: Brian Friday (356 at bats, .247/2/26); Jose De Los Santos (382 at bats, .246/1/29)
3B: Neil Walker (482 at bats, .247/11/64); Jim Negrych (451 at bats, .279/3/57)
C: Steve Lerud (385 at bats, .210/8/48)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (499 at bats, .261/9/52); Jose Tabata (407 at bats, .251/5/49); Anthony Webster (436 at bats, .259/6/43)
A couple of guys jump out - Negrych and McCutchen, for example, should both be fast trackers if the CHONE numbers hold up.
Oh, and for you guys that hold out hope that Dirt Dog Doug pulls on the Pirate jersey one more time: his projected line is 297 at bats, .266/6/37.
(Tomorrow: CHONE and the pitchers *yikes*)
We thought we'd take a look at them not so much as a prognostication tool, but as a basis for comparison between the starting lineup and what's behind it - how, for example, do Moss, Pearce and Monroe match up, or little LaRoche, Vazquez, Phillips, and Walker, or McCutchen and Morgan? Is there any depth?
Here's what CHONE's Sean Smith figures the lines that the 2009 starting position players should produce based on past performance:
1B: Adam LaRoche (504 at-bats, .264/23/84)
2B: Freddy Sanchez (548 at-bats, .290/8/60)
SS: Jack Wilson (484 at-bats, .273/7/41)
3B: Andy LaRoche (403 at bats, .256/13/59)
CA: Ryan Doumit (384 at bats, .281/14/60)
LF: Nyjer Morgan (442 at bats, .276/2/33)
CF: Nate McLouth (438 at bats, .274/16/53)
RF: Brandon Moss (476 at bats, .267/13/68)
Hmmm...it'll interesting to see what John Russell does for a middle-of-the-order with that collection. If Smith is right, runs will be hard to come by next season, but we saw that over the last two months of 2008, and you don't need a sabermetric system to draw that conclusion. It's a no-brainer.
Of a little more interest, to GW at least, is what CHONE thinks of the troops Neal Huntington and crew brought in to plump out the roster and fill in at Indy.
IF: Garrett Jones (1B - 506 at bats, .259/20/83); Ramon Vazquez (339 at bats, .251/6/35); Andy Phillips (317 at bats, .271/11/43); Luis Cruz (457 at bats, .247/7/47); Brian Bixler (465 at bats, .245/6/42).
C: Jason Jamarillo (429 at bats, .256/7/49); Robinzon Diaz (401 at bats, .279/3/48).
OF: Steve Pearce (481 at bats, .266/17/79); Craig Monroe (438 at bats, .257/17/69); Jeff Salazar (385 at bats, .255/8/46).
Hey, there's a little potential there. Pittsburgh has some alternatives in the OF, Jones and Pearce could be a fairly equivalent platoon at first if big bro LaRoche goes, and Phillips wouldn't be a noticeable downgrade at third if little LaRoche takes a swan dive. But the middle of the infield is weaker without the old heads, Wilson and Sanchez, manning their familiar spots.
People remember that the pitching spots were written in stone during camp last year, but they forget how little competition there was for bench spots. Maybe this year the young guys and the vet fill-ins will have to wage a bit of a battle to earn that seat on the pine. Russell doesn't seem adverse to platooning guys; maybe he'll have a couple more options this season.
And now - what does CHONE project the young guns will do if they get the call to the show?
1B: Jason Delaney (457 at bats, .247/7/55); Jamie Romak (408 at bats, .199/14/54)
2B: Shelby Ford (379 at bats, .253/4/40)
SS: Brian Friday (356 at bats, .247/2/26); Jose De Los Santos (382 at bats, .246/1/29)
3B: Neil Walker (482 at bats, .247/11/64); Jim Negrych (451 at bats, .279/3/57)
C: Steve Lerud (385 at bats, .210/8/48)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (499 at bats, .261/9/52); Jose Tabata (407 at bats, .251/5/49); Anthony Webster (436 at bats, .259/6/43)
A couple of guys jump out - Negrych and McCutchen, for example, should both be fast trackers if the CHONE numbers hold up.
Oh, and for you guys that hold out hope that Dirt Dog Doug pulls on the Pirate jersey one more time: his projected line is 297 at bats, .266/6/37.
(Tomorrow: CHONE and the pitchers *yikes*)
Friday, January 16, 2009
Mini Camp Mini Notes
GW wishes he were with the Buccos at Bradenton - 45 may be a wintry blast in Florida, but it ain't nothin' like the real thing - and like you, he's here wondering if he's gonna have to auction off his first born when the gas bill comes to roost in the mailbox next month.
But the surest harbinger of spring has arrived, warming the cockles of GW's hardball heart. The Pirates got together for a little game of catch, the prelude to camp. Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette covered it pretty well in the PBC Blog (apparently the Trib can't afford air fare or decided it's still football season, probably both), and between DK and a few other web stories, these points stuck out:
* The guys are in shape, never a given in the past - except for Pedro Alvarez *sigh*. Go figure;
* Donnie Veal can bring it;
* Tyler Yates decided to impress the brass by staying home in Hawaii and filing for arbitration (the other no-shows were the injured Phil Dumatrait, Romulo Sanchez & Ronald Uviedo, still pitching in the winter leagues, and Craig Hansen, who had a family matter to attend to, along with infield coach Perry Hill, who was sick);
* Andrew McCutchen is packing some muscle this year and hasn't given up on breaking with the team after camp;
* Brandon Moss is recovered from whatever mysterious procedure they did to his knee;
* Andy LaRoche and Steve Pearce were pounding BP;
* and Joe Kerrigan is an energizer bunny with a yap that never quits (not to mention the fourth pitching coach in five seasons for the Pirates - no wonder the guys are confused!)
The other news of the day:
* All six arbitration eligible Pirates - Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm, Adam LaRoche, John Grabow, Zach Duke, and Yates - filed for arbitration, as expected. The other arb eligible players, Ryan Doumit and Denny Bautista, inked deals, while Raul Chavez (now with Toronto) and Jason Davis (a free agent) were non-tendered. The hearings will be scheduled beginning February 1st if the team can't come to terms with the guys.
* The Bucs signed another special assistant to Neal Huntington's posse, long-time Tiger scout and GM Bill Lajoie. He joins Chuck Tanner as a senior advisor for player evaluation. Lajoie is 74, and Tanner is 79 - when the Pirates name someone a senior advisor, they ain't kidding!
Lajoie also worked in Boston, where he was said to enjoy matching sabermetric ratings with the old seat-of-the-pants eyeball model, a great mix for this era. While with the Tigers, he said the goal was to amass power arms and power bats, so he'll fit right in here.
* Jake at Bucco Blog has an interesting piece on the Buc's plan for the future - he calls it restructuring, not rebuilding.
* The Bucs are still keeping an eye on Pedro Martinez. We wonder if they're gonna have any eyes on Mark Mulder when he throws for the scouts in a couple of weeks? And we're curious just how affordable the 30-year old Ben Sheets may end up in a market that's not showing him much love?
But the surest harbinger of spring has arrived, warming the cockles of GW's hardball heart. The Pirates got together for a little game of catch, the prelude to camp. Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette covered it pretty well in the PBC Blog (apparently the Trib can't afford air fare or decided it's still football season, probably both), and between DK and a few other web stories, these points stuck out:
* The guys are in shape, never a given in the past - except for Pedro Alvarez *sigh*. Go figure;
* Donnie Veal can bring it;
* Tyler Yates decided to impress the brass by staying home in Hawaii and filing for arbitration (the other no-shows were the injured Phil Dumatrait, Romulo Sanchez & Ronald Uviedo, still pitching in the winter leagues, and Craig Hansen, who had a family matter to attend to, along with infield coach Perry Hill, who was sick);
* Andrew McCutchen is packing some muscle this year and hasn't given up on breaking with the team after camp;
* Brandon Moss is recovered from whatever mysterious procedure they did to his knee;
* Andy LaRoche and Steve Pearce were pounding BP;
* and Joe Kerrigan is an energizer bunny with a yap that never quits (not to mention the fourth pitching coach in five seasons for the Pirates - no wonder the guys are confused!)
The other news of the day:
* All six arbitration eligible Pirates - Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm, Adam LaRoche, John Grabow, Zach Duke, and Yates - filed for arbitration, as expected. The other arb eligible players, Ryan Doumit and Denny Bautista, inked deals, while Raul Chavez (now with Toronto) and Jason Davis (a free agent) were non-tendered. The hearings will be scheduled beginning February 1st if the team can't come to terms with the guys.
* The Bucs signed another special assistant to Neal Huntington's posse, long-time Tiger scout and GM Bill Lajoie. He joins Chuck Tanner as a senior advisor for player evaluation. Lajoie is 74, and Tanner is 79 - when the Pirates name someone a senior advisor, they ain't kidding!
Lajoie also worked in Boston, where he was said to enjoy matching sabermetric ratings with the old seat-of-the-pants eyeball model, a great mix for this era. While with the Tigers, he said the goal was to amass power arms and power bats, so he'll fit right in here.
* Jake at Bucco Blog has an interesting piece on the Buc's plan for the future - he calls it restructuring, not rebuilding.
* The Bucs are still keeping an eye on Pedro Martinez. We wonder if they're gonna have any eyes on Mark Mulder when he throws for the scouts in a couple of weeks? And we're curious just how affordable the 30-year old Ben Sheets may end up in a market that's not showing him much love?
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Pirate CHONE Projections 2009
Hey, we thought we'd let you do the work today. Here, compliments of Baseball Projections, are the CHONE ratings for your 2009 PBC's hitters and hurlers. Read 'em and weep.
If you'd like a look at all the players, here's Fangraph's MLB CHONE Projections.
CHONE is a system that projects a player's performance for the upcoming year, as worked out by Sean Smith, and cover a team's MLB and upper minor league roster. The team list may have a gonzo name or two; it's a month old, though the numbers still stand for 2009.
If you'd like a look at all the players, here's Fangraph's MLB CHONE Projections.
CHONE is a system that projects a player's performance for the upcoming year, as worked out by Sean Smith, and cover a team's MLB and upper minor league roster. The team list may have a gonzo name or two; it's a month old, though the numbers still stand for 2009.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Marilyn Monroe's Son, Craig
Hey, Craig Monroe is a pretty good jock, but his mom, Marilyn Monroe, was the standout, starring in softball and basketball when she was growing up in Texarkana, Texas.
But when she became pregnant with Craig as a teenager, she gave up her shot at college to raise her son. But she never lost her skills.
Monroe couldn't beat his mom at basketball until he was a high school sophomore. And he was a pretty sweet hoopster, named All-State as a shooting guard at Texas High, where he set a record for most three-pointers in a game.
On the gridiron, he was a star wide receiver and cornerback who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns in the same game.
Baseball was an afterthought in school. He was never really a star player, though he did excel in the local summer leagues. But a dislocated shoulder changed his plans.
He went to Texarkana JC, as his bum wing scared away the college recruiters bird dogging him for the other sports, and was debating on which sport to focus on when the Texas Rangers made the decision easy. They took Monroe in the 8th round of the 1995 draft, attracted by his tools and athleticism.
It looked like they may have wasted a pick for the first few seasons of his career as he floundered in the low minors. But he broke out at AA Tulsa in 2000, hitting .282 with 20 homers, 64 walks, 12 steals, and a .506 slugging percentage.
He was jumped to AAA Oakland in 2001, and hit .280 with 20 homers, 10 steals, 46 walks, and a .512 slugging percentage. He worked hard to improve his defense, considered a minus by most scouts. Monroe had the speed and arm, but was clueless running his routes.
Monroe hit .212 in a 27-game, 52 at-bat audition with the Rangers in 2001, with 2 dingers, and found himself on waivers.
The Tigers claimed him, and sent him to AAA Toledo, where he hit .321 with 10 HR and 49 RBI in 99 games. Scouts began to see him as a potential MLB fourth outfielder, and the Tigers as more.
Monroe got into 128 games for Detroit in 2003, hitting .230 with 23 homers and 70 RBI. He put together three pretty good season after that, hitting .293/18/72 in 2004 and .277/20/89 in 2005.
Monroe will remember 2004 for a different reason. That's when he was pinched for wrapping a $30 belt around his waist and trying to walk out of a Florida store without paying for it. His record was cleared after he spent some time in a rehab class.
His 2006 campaign made his rep, as he hit .255 with 28 HRs and 92 RBI. Monroe's grand slam off Javier Vazquez help separate the Tigers from their closest pursuers, the White Sox. He also tied a franchise record by hitting five home runs in the postseason, and was thought of as one of the big-time clutch hitters in the league after that those performances.
But as quickly as it came, it went. Mid-way through the 2007 season, Monroe, who lost his starting job in left field to Marcus Thames, was hitting only .222 with 11 home runs and 55 RBIs in 99 games for Motown. The low light came when he struck out 5 times in a 9 inning game against the Milwaukee Brewers, earning a platinum sombrero.
The Tigers called up minor league whiz kid Cameron Maybin and DFA'ed Monroe, eventually shipping him and cash to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Clay Rapada. He hit .204 with a long ball for the Cubbies in limited work off the bench.
Before the 2008 season, the The Twins acquired Monroe from the Tigers for a player to be named later. They released him in August after 58 games and a line of .202/8/29.
Monroe made $4.7M with the Tigers and Cubs in 2007, and in 2008 the Twins signed him to a one year deal worth $3.82M. It's a pretty safe bet the Bucs inked him for a bunch less.
What does C-Moe bring to the table? Well, his D never improved a lot. He can play the corners, and his youthful speed has long left him, although his wheels are still OK and he has a nice arm.
Monroe is a streaky batter, and the right-handed batter can't hit righties worth a dang. He's hit .276 and .271 against LHP the past two years, and .138 and .194 against RHP, and is a platoon/PH guy all the way. Monroe has struck out a lot (26%) and walked a little (7%) for the past two seasons.
He's still pretty clutch, though, with .283 and .254 RISP averages the last pair of seasons, considerably higher than his overall batting average. So Monroe has a decent chance of sticking with the club, especially if the suits, for reasons known only to them and the baseball gods, plan to team Steve Pearce and Neil Walker together at Indy for another year.
And when Andrew McCutchen debuts, he could give the Bucs a RH outfielder with a little pop to play RF and Nyjer can slide into the LH centerfield role, maybe platooning with McCutch.
It's not a major move, but the pieces fit together for 2009, anyway.
But when she became pregnant with Craig as a teenager, she gave up her shot at college to raise her son. But she never lost her skills.
Monroe couldn't beat his mom at basketball until he was a high school sophomore. And he was a pretty sweet hoopster, named All-State as a shooting guard at Texas High, where he set a record for most three-pointers in a game.
On the gridiron, he was a star wide receiver and cornerback who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns in the same game.
Baseball was an afterthought in school. He was never really a star player, though he did excel in the local summer leagues. But a dislocated shoulder changed his plans.
He went to Texarkana JC, as his bum wing scared away the college recruiters bird dogging him for the other sports, and was debating on which sport to focus on when the Texas Rangers made the decision easy. They took Monroe in the 8th round of the 1995 draft, attracted by his tools and athleticism.
It looked like they may have wasted a pick for the first few seasons of his career as he floundered in the low minors. But he broke out at AA Tulsa in 2000, hitting .282 with 20 homers, 64 walks, 12 steals, and a .506 slugging percentage.
He was jumped to AAA Oakland in 2001, and hit .280 with 20 homers, 10 steals, 46 walks, and a .512 slugging percentage. He worked hard to improve his defense, considered a minus by most scouts. Monroe had the speed and arm, but was clueless running his routes.
Monroe hit .212 in a 27-game, 52 at-bat audition with the Rangers in 2001, with 2 dingers, and found himself on waivers.
The Tigers claimed him, and sent him to AAA Toledo, where he hit .321 with 10 HR and 49 RBI in 99 games. Scouts began to see him as a potential MLB fourth outfielder, and the Tigers as more.
Monroe got into 128 games for Detroit in 2003, hitting .230 with 23 homers and 70 RBI. He put together three pretty good season after that, hitting .293/18/72 in 2004 and .277/20/89 in 2005.
Monroe will remember 2004 for a different reason. That's when he was pinched for wrapping a $30 belt around his waist and trying to walk out of a Florida store without paying for it. His record was cleared after he spent some time in a rehab class.
His 2006 campaign made his rep, as he hit .255 with 28 HRs and 92 RBI. Monroe's grand slam off Javier Vazquez help separate the Tigers from their closest pursuers, the White Sox. He also tied a franchise record by hitting five home runs in the postseason, and was thought of as one of the big-time clutch hitters in the league after that those performances.
But as quickly as it came, it went. Mid-way through the 2007 season, Monroe, who lost his starting job in left field to Marcus Thames, was hitting only .222 with 11 home runs and 55 RBIs in 99 games for Motown. The low light came when he struck out 5 times in a 9 inning game against the Milwaukee Brewers, earning a platinum sombrero.
The Tigers called up minor league whiz kid Cameron Maybin and DFA'ed Monroe, eventually shipping him and cash to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Clay Rapada. He hit .204 with a long ball for the Cubbies in limited work off the bench.
Before the 2008 season, the The Twins acquired Monroe from the Tigers for a player to be named later. They released him in August after 58 games and a line of .202/8/29.
Monroe made $4.7M with the Tigers and Cubs in 2007, and in 2008 the Twins signed him to a one year deal worth $3.82M. It's a pretty safe bet the Bucs inked him for a bunch less.
What does C-Moe bring to the table? Well, his D never improved a lot. He can play the corners, and his youthful speed has long left him, although his wheels are still OK and he has a nice arm.
Monroe is a streaky batter, and the right-handed batter can't hit righties worth a dang. He's hit .276 and .271 against LHP the past two years, and .138 and .194 against RHP, and is a platoon/PH guy all the way. Monroe has struck out a lot (26%) and walked a little (7%) for the past two seasons.
He's still pretty clutch, though, with .283 and .254 RISP averages the last pair of seasons, considerably higher than his overall batting average. So Monroe has a decent chance of sticking with the club, especially if the suits, for reasons known only to them and the baseball gods, plan to team Steve Pearce and Neil Walker together at Indy for another year.
And when Andrew McCutchen debuts, he could give the Bucs a RH outfielder with a little pop to play RF and Nyjer can slide into the LH centerfield role, maybe platooning with McCutch.
It's not a major move, but the pieces fit together for 2009, anyway.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Bert Blyleven...Inching Towards the Hall
Hey, another Hall of Fame vote, another door slammed in Bert Blyleven's grizzled puss. Just who is this guy that evokes so much passion from both his supporters and detractors?
Bert Blyleven was born April 6, 1951 in Zeist, Netherlands, moved to Canada, and was raised in Garden Grove, California.
He got his baseball jones as a youngster watching Sandy Koufax pitch (his dad was a sportswriter), and later starred on the Santiago High nine. Blyleven was drafted out of high school by the Minnesota Twins in the third round in 1969, 55th overall. After 21 minor league starts he was called to the show at age 19, on June 2, 1970.
His curve was already a knee-buckler, and he was named AL Rookie Pitcher of the Year by The Sporting News, going 10-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 135 Ks in 164 innings of work.
For the next six seasons, he was the mainstay of the Twin staff, winning 85 games while never having an ERA higher than 3.00, pitching less than 275 innings or striking out fewer than 219 batters.
But Blyleven was hounded by media and fans who were frustrated by a bad Minnesota team and appointed him as the scapegoat. He wanted out, and got his wish when was traded to the Texas Rangers on June 1, 1976. He pitched well with the Rangers, having a 2.76 ERA in his first season and throwing a no-hitter against the California Angels on September 22, 1977.
Then came his brief Bucco stay. On December 8, 1977, Blyleven and John Milner were traded to the Pirates as part of the first four-team trade in MLB history, with Al Oliver and the Mets' Jon Matlock going to the Rangers, and the Braves tossing in an odd player or two.
He became the rotation's tough-luck guy in Pittsburgh, rarely getting any run support, and he hurt his own cause as his performance dropped each season. Blyleven started off 14-10 with a 3.03 ERA in 1978, followed by 12-5 slate - he had an astounding 20 no decisions, still a record - and 3.60 ERA in the championship year of 1979 (he went 2-0 in the post season, with a Series win and ERA of 1.40), and then fell to 8-13 in 1980 with a 3.83 ERA.
Blyleven and the Pirates finally butted heads. He was unhappy with Chuck Tanner's strategy of going to the bullpen in close games, priding himself on complete games, and he threatened to retire he wasn't traded. It was less than an amicable divorce.
Blyleven did get what he wanted, going to the Cleveland Indians on December 9, 1980 for four guys, Bob Owchinko being the biggest name that came back in return. They gave him away rather than put up with what the suits considered his self-centered guff.
He bounced around after that. In what was fast becoming a career calling card, Blyleven became unhappy playing for the lackluster Indians and forced a trade back to the Twins, where he passed the 3,000-strikeout mark and helped Minnesota to a 1987 World Series crown.
Blyleven went to the California Angels in 1989 and put together 17-5 record and 2.73 ERA, but he missed the entire 1991 season following rotator cuff surgery. He came back in 1992, but was done, a victim of age and the knife, going 8-12 with a 4.74 ERA.
He retired following that season with a career 287-250 record, 3,701 strikeouts and a 3.31 ERA. Blyleven won major league games before he turned twenty and he won major league games after he turned forty, a club that includes only Herb Pennock & Mike Morgan. He also won fifteen games by the score of 1-0. Only two other pitchers have won more 1-0 games, Walter "Big Train" Johnson and Christy Mathewson.
Blyleven has been the color man for the Twins since 1995, and will be the pitching coach for the Dutch national team in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.
He ranks 5th all-time in strikeouts, 9th in shutouts with 60, and 27th all-time in wins. Blyleven is the only retired member of the 3000 strikeout club not yet in the Hall of Fame, but the writers ain't showing him much love.
His detractors point out that he had just one 20-win season, two All-Star bids and never won a Cy Young Award during his 22 year career. In the key categories of strikeouts, wins and ERA, he only led his league once, when he topped the American League in strikeouts in 1985.
They say Blyleven's numbers are a product of longevity, not HoF talent, and use his regular trade demands as an example of Blyleven looking to pad his stats rather than be a team player, a career-long criticism that still haunts him. All GW can add to the debate is that he's never seen a curve ball better than Blyleven's - and we've seen Koufax's, the next best.
He received only 17.55% of the vote in 1998, his first year of eligibility. This year, Blyleven received 336 votes, or 61.9% of the vote. He needs to convince 69 more voters that he deserves a bust, and has until 2012 to sell himself before he's handed off to the Veteran's Committee.
Oh, well. As Blyleven once said early on in the process, "I know I've got a lock on the Dutch Hall of Fame." He should; he's one of only seven Dutchmen to play MLB.
Blyleven is sometimes his worst enemy, even as an announcer for his Twins. In 2006, he dropped a couple of f-bombs on the air when he didn't realize that the camera was still rolling. He was suspended for 7 games, and his fans were spotted holding "Free Bert" signs at the Metrodome.
"Circle Me, Bert" is another popular stadium sign. Fans hope that he'll spot their poster and circle them on television with his telestrator, ala Bob Walk, which gets the lucky winner $100 worth of state lottery tickets.
Blyleven is the main character in many a story. These are told in Baseball - A Laughing Matter, by Warner Fusselle, Rick Wolff and Brian Zevnik of The Sporting News, published in 1987 and related by Wikipedia:
* Blyleven appeared as himself in the 1990 Jim Belushi film Taking Care of Business. During a 2006 broadcast, he forgot the name of the movie and had to be reminded of it by a technician in the broadcast booth.
* He was one of baseball's most famous dugout pranksters during his playing days. Blyleven earned the nickname "Frying Dutchman" because of his love of giving unsuspecting teammates a hotfoot, and was famous in the Bucco dugout for lighting up Phil Garner.
* ESPN announcer Chris Berman, known for his corny handles, tagged him as Bert "Be Home" Blyleven.
* He appeared in a TV commercial for a home realtor company, playing off the many cities he played for during his career.
* Blyleven didn't even know his correct name until he was about to get married. He thought that his given name was Rikaalbert, but when he was about to get married and got a copy of his birth certificate, he discovered that his name was actually Rik Aalbert Blyleven. Hey, common mistake.
Bert Blyleven may or may not get voted into the Hall of Fame, but if Cooperstown had a wing for its characters, he'd be a shoo-in.
Bert Blyleven was born April 6, 1951 in Zeist, Netherlands, moved to Canada, and was raised in Garden Grove, California.
He got his baseball jones as a youngster watching Sandy Koufax pitch (his dad was a sportswriter), and later starred on the Santiago High nine. Blyleven was drafted out of high school by the Minnesota Twins in the third round in 1969, 55th overall. After 21 minor league starts he was called to the show at age 19, on June 2, 1970.
His curve was already a knee-buckler, and he was named AL Rookie Pitcher of the Year by The Sporting News, going 10-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 135 Ks in 164 innings of work.
For the next six seasons, he was the mainstay of the Twin staff, winning 85 games while never having an ERA higher than 3.00, pitching less than 275 innings or striking out fewer than 219 batters.
But Blyleven was hounded by media and fans who were frustrated by a bad Minnesota team and appointed him as the scapegoat. He wanted out, and got his wish when was traded to the Texas Rangers on June 1, 1976. He pitched well with the Rangers, having a 2.76 ERA in his first season and throwing a no-hitter against the California Angels on September 22, 1977.
Then came his brief Bucco stay. On December 8, 1977, Blyleven and John Milner were traded to the Pirates as part of the first four-team trade in MLB history, with Al Oliver and the Mets' Jon Matlock going to the Rangers, and the Braves tossing in an odd player or two.
He became the rotation's tough-luck guy in Pittsburgh, rarely getting any run support, and he hurt his own cause as his performance dropped each season. Blyleven started off 14-10 with a 3.03 ERA in 1978, followed by 12-5 slate - he had an astounding 20 no decisions, still a record - and 3.60 ERA in the championship year of 1979 (he went 2-0 in the post season, with a Series win and ERA of 1.40), and then fell to 8-13 in 1980 with a 3.83 ERA.
Blyleven and the Pirates finally butted heads. He was unhappy with Chuck Tanner's strategy of going to the bullpen in close games, priding himself on complete games, and he threatened to retire he wasn't traded. It was less than an amicable divorce.
Blyleven did get what he wanted, going to the Cleveland Indians on December 9, 1980 for four guys, Bob Owchinko being the biggest name that came back in return. They gave him away rather than put up with what the suits considered his self-centered guff.
He bounced around after that. In what was fast becoming a career calling card, Blyleven became unhappy playing for the lackluster Indians and forced a trade back to the Twins, where he passed the 3,000-strikeout mark and helped Minnesota to a 1987 World Series crown.
Blyleven went to the California Angels in 1989 and put together 17-5 record and 2.73 ERA, but he missed the entire 1991 season following rotator cuff surgery. He came back in 1992, but was done, a victim of age and the knife, going 8-12 with a 4.74 ERA.
He retired following that season with a career 287-250 record, 3,701 strikeouts and a 3.31 ERA. Blyleven won major league games before he turned twenty and he won major league games after he turned forty, a club that includes only Herb Pennock & Mike Morgan. He also won fifteen games by the score of 1-0. Only two other pitchers have won more 1-0 games, Walter "Big Train" Johnson and Christy Mathewson.
Blyleven has been the color man for the Twins since 1995, and will be the pitching coach for the Dutch national team in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.
He ranks 5th all-time in strikeouts, 9th in shutouts with 60, and 27th all-time in wins. Blyleven is the only retired member of the 3000 strikeout club not yet in the Hall of Fame, but the writers ain't showing him much love.
His detractors point out that he had just one 20-win season, two All-Star bids and never won a Cy Young Award during his 22 year career. In the key categories of strikeouts, wins and ERA, he only led his league once, when he topped the American League in strikeouts in 1985.
They say Blyleven's numbers are a product of longevity, not HoF talent, and use his regular trade demands as an example of Blyleven looking to pad his stats rather than be a team player, a career-long criticism that still haunts him. All GW can add to the debate is that he's never seen a curve ball better than Blyleven's - and we've seen Koufax's, the next best.
He received only 17.55% of the vote in 1998, his first year of eligibility. This year, Blyleven received 336 votes, or 61.9% of the vote. He needs to convince 69 more voters that he deserves a bust, and has until 2012 to sell himself before he's handed off to the Veteran's Committee.
Oh, well. As Blyleven once said early on in the process, "I know I've got a lock on the Dutch Hall of Fame." He should; he's one of only seven Dutchmen to play MLB.
Blyleven is sometimes his worst enemy, even as an announcer for his Twins. In 2006, he dropped a couple of f-bombs on the air when he didn't realize that the camera was still rolling. He was suspended for 7 games, and his fans were spotted holding "Free Bert" signs at the Metrodome.
"Circle Me, Bert" is another popular stadium sign. Fans hope that he'll spot their poster and circle them on television with his telestrator, ala Bob Walk, which gets the lucky winner $100 worth of state lottery tickets.
Blyleven is the main character in many a story. These are told in Baseball - A Laughing Matter, by Warner Fusselle, Rick Wolff and Brian Zevnik of The Sporting News, published in 1987 and related by Wikipedia:
* Blyleven appeared as himself in the 1990 Jim Belushi film Taking Care of Business. During a 2006 broadcast, he forgot the name of the movie and had to be reminded of it by a technician in the broadcast booth.
* He was one of baseball's most famous dugout pranksters during his playing days. Blyleven earned the nickname "Frying Dutchman" because of his love of giving unsuspecting teammates a hotfoot, and was famous in the Bucco dugout for lighting up Phil Garner.
* ESPN announcer Chris Berman, known for his corny handles, tagged him as Bert "Be Home" Blyleven.
* He appeared in a TV commercial for a home realtor company, playing off the many cities he played for during his career.
* Blyleven didn't even know his correct name until he was about to get married. He thought that his given name was Rikaalbert, but when he was about to get married and got a copy of his birth certificate, he discovered that his name was actually Rik Aalbert Blyleven. Hey, common mistake.
Bert Blyleven may or may not get voted into the Hall of Fame, but if Cooperstown had a wing for its characters, he'd be a shoo-in.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Pittsburgh - August 2009
In the last post, we took a look at the upcoming mix-and-match makeup of the 2009 Pirates. Now it's time to hop into the GW time machine and set the dials for August 1st, 2009. (Don't worry - H.G. Wells approves. He even lent us the machine.)
The Cubbies were easily atop the division, while the surprising Reds and steady Cards were both alive in the wildcard race. The Pirates were dueling with the Astros for the last spot in the NL Central, with the Bucs sitting at 45-58 at the end of July.
The pitching had turned the corner under Joe Kerrigan, compiling a 4.45 ERA, near the league norm, and was on pace to cut walks and pump up the Ks by 5%. The pre-game planning paid off, too, as the starters averaged 6-2/3 innings per outing in 2009, a full inning deeper than it went 2008.
The bullpen had benefited from fewer appearances and innings, although free passes were still a problem. Matt Capps, after a slow start, had been money in the bank after mastering an off speed pitch, adding a foot to his heater and making batters look silly.
But the offense struggled. The middle of the lineup lacked big boppers, and the team wasn't constructed to play effective small ball, with little speed to speak of and in the midst of transitioning to an AL model attack. The result was a lot of 2 and 3 run games, and that just wasn't enough. Something had to give. And it did, on deadline day.
The usually dapper Neal Huntington stepped in front of the cameras, suit wrinkled and some stubble showing, to announce that Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, and John Grabow had been traded to contenders and pretenders just under the deadline, fulfilling season-long predictions.
All were performing at about their MLB average - LaRoche was earning $7.25M after arbitration, and had a line of .273/19/65. Grabow was 2-1 with 12 holds and a 3.78 ERA, showing good control and equal effectiveness against righties and lefties, and had won $1.75M in his arbitration hearing for 2009. Both were in their walk year.
Wilson, making $7.25M and due $8.4 next year, was healthy and hitting .269/5/35. Sanchez had some minor bumps and bruises, but still had steady if limited range in the field and a batting line of .298/6/55, while taking home $6.1M with another $8M coming in 2010. Both of these guys had team options for next season, with $600K buyouts.
The return? Six minor league players, four reporting to AA and a pair to AAA. One was a middle infielder, two were outfielders with some power, and the other three were starting pitchers.
The fans and media were aghast. Losing Jack Splat and Sanchez, two guys deeply embedded in the community, took its toll at the gate, along with the universally held suspicion that the Bucs were more concerned about the bottom line than a winning team. The Pirates averaged under 13,000 fans for the final two months of the season.
The lineup took on an entirely new look. Steve Pearce and Garrett Ford began platooning at first base, Luis Cruz and Andy Phillips shared the chores at second, fighting for an everyday gig, and Ramon Vazquez took over at short, while Pedro Lopez and Neil Walker came up as a spare infielders. The Pirates were out of MLB ready lefties for the bullpen, and Evan Meek got his long-awaited call back to the show.
But other pieces were beginning to fall into place. Andrew McCutchen finally punched his ticket, and with an outfield going from left to right of Nate McLouth, McCutchen, and Brandon Moss, balls that routinely fell in were now being run down. McCutchen looked lost for a month at the dish, but came around to hit .285 in September, ending his rookie year with a .250 average.
Ryan Doumit was still susceptible to nagging injuries behind the plate, but caught 130 games and avoided the DL. Jason Jamarillo proved adequate as his back-up, hitting .260 and playing solid defense with a decent arm. (Ronny Paulino, meanwhile, was hitting .280 at Philly, with a dozen HR and 50 RBI, after Carlos Ruiz broke his ankle in June.)
But unlike 2008, these guys didn't mope around the diamond. Sensing that jobs and careers were to be had, they hustled and dove all over the yard for nine innings, under the watchful eye of clubhouse leader Doumit, who had taken on the roles of big brother and team sheriff when needed.
Oh, the rag-tag bunch didn't fare particularly better than last year's version - they would finish last, with a 68-94 record - but they were beginning to take on the look of a team.
The future was fast approaching. After tearing it up for the Curve, both Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata would start 2010 in Indy. Shelby Ford, Jim Negrych, and Jamie Romak were already there. Bryan Morris and Brad Lincoln were both working their way up the ladder and were in AA, and several members of the 2008 draft class were settled in at Lynchburg on the way to Altoona. The Pirates had bottomed out; now it was time to finally put a team together.
Change at long last had arrived in Pittsburgh.
(GW warns his long suffering readers that no number or scenario in this post, except for Wilson and Sanchez's contracts, have any basis in reality other than GW's imagination and prognostication skills, convoluted as they may be. No voodoo rites were called upon for technical assistance, like Ouija boards, fresh chicken entrails, tea leaves, Delphi oracles, VOR, Baseball Bibles, or PECOTA, although there was this quatrain by Nostradamus...)
The Cubbies were easily atop the division, while the surprising Reds and steady Cards were both alive in the wildcard race. The Pirates were dueling with the Astros for the last spot in the NL Central, with the Bucs sitting at 45-58 at the end of July.
The pitching had turned the corner under Joe Kerrigan, compiling a 4.45 ERA, near the league norm, and was on pace to cut walks and pump up the Ks by 5%. The pre-game planning paid off, too, as the starters averaged 6-2/3 innings per outing in 2009, a full inning deeper than it went 2008.
The bullpen had benefited from fewer appearances and innings, although free passes were still a problem. Matt Capps, after a slow start, had been money in the bank after mastering an off speed pitch, adding a foot to his heater and making batters look silly.
But the offense struggled. The middle of the lineup lacked big boppers, and the team wasn't constructed to play effective small ball, with little speed to speak of and in the midst of transitioning to an AL model attack. The result was a lot of 2 and 3 run games, and that just wasn't enough. Something had to give. And it did, on deadline day.
The usually dapper Neal Huntington stepped in front of the cameras, suit wrinkled and some stubble showing, to announce that Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, and John Grabow had been traded to contenders and pretenders just under the deadline, fulfilling season-long predictions.
All were performing at about their MLB average - LaRoche was earning $7.25M after arbitration, and had a line of .273/19/65. Grabow was 2-1 with 12 holds and a 3.78 ERA, showing good control and equal effectiveness against righties and lefties, and had won $1.75M in his arbitration hearing for 2009. Both were in their walk year.
Wilson, making $7.25M and due $8.4 next year, was healthy and hitting .269/5/35. Sanchez had some minor bumps and bruises, but still had steady if limited range in the field and a batting line of .298/6/55, while taking home $6.1M with another $8M coming in 2010. Both of these guys had team options for next season, with $600K buyouts.
The return? Six minor league players, four reporting to AA and a pair to AAA. One was a middle infielder, two were outfielders with some power, and the other three were starting pitchers.
The fans and media were aghast. Losing Jack Splat and Sanchez, two guys deeply embedded in the community, took its toll at the gate, along with the universally held suspicion that the Bucs were more concerned about the bottom line than a winning team. The Pirates averaged under 13,000 fans for the final two months of the season.
The lineup took on an entirely new look. Steve Pearce and Garrett Ford began platooning at first base, Luis Cruz and Andy Phillips shared the chores at second, fighting for an everyday gig, and Ramon Vazquez took over at short, while Pedro Lopez and Neil Walker came up as a spare infielders. The Pirates were out of MLB ready lefties for the bullpen, and Evan Meek got his long-awaited call back to the show.
But other pieces were beginning to fall into place. Andrew McCutchen finally punched his ticket, and with an outfield going from left to right of Nate McLouth, McCutchen, and Brandon Moss, balls that routinely fell in were now being run down. McCutchen looked lost for a month at the dish, but came around to hit .285 in September, ending his rookie year with a .250 average.
Ryan Doumit was still susceptible to nagging injuries behind the plate, but caught 130 games and avoided the DL. Jason Jamarillo proved adequate as his back-up, hitting .260 and playing solid defense with a decent arm. (Ronny Paulino, meanwhile, was hitting .280 at Philly, with a dozen HR and 50 RBI, after Carlos Ruiz broke his ankle in June.)
But unlike 2008, these guys didn't mope around the diamond. Sensing that jobs and careers were to be had, they hustled and dove all over the yard for nine innings, under the watchful eye of clubhouse leader Doumit, who had taken on the roles of big brother and team sheriff when needed.
Oh, the rag-tag bunch didn't fare particularly better than last year's version - they would finish last, with a 68-94 record - but they were beginning to take on the look of a team.
The future was fast approaching. After tearing it up for the Curve, both Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata would start 2010 in Indy. Shelby Ford, Jim Negrych, and Jamie Romak were already there. Bryan Morris and Brad Lincoln were both working their way up the ladder and were in AA, and several members of the 2008 draft class were settled in at Lynchburg on the way to Altoona. The Pirates had bottomed out; now it was time to finally put a team together.
Change at long last had arrived in Pittsburgh.
(GW warns his long suffering readers that no number or scenario in this post, except for Wilson and Sanchez's contracts, have any basis in reality other than GW's imagination and prognostication skills, convoluted as they may be. No voodoo rites were called upon for technical assistance, like Ouija boards, fresh chicken entrails, tea leaves, Delphi oracles, VOR, Baseball Bibles, or PECOTA, although there was this quatrain by Nostradamus...)
Sunday, January 11, 2009
The Bucs Of 2009
As promised, here's your 2009 PBC, to date:
Added SP Daniel Haigwood and Brian Slocum, RP Chris Bootcheck and Donnie Veal, IF Ramon Vazquez and Andy Phillips, 1B Garrett Jones, SS Anderson Machado and Pedro Lopez; C Jason Jamarillo, and OF Jeff Salazar. Lost SP John van Benschoten, RP Frankie Osoria, C Ronny Paulino and Raul Chavez, OF Jason Michaels and Chris Duffy, and IF Chris Gomez. Unsigned free agents are IF Doug Mientkiewicz and Luis Rivas, and RP Jason Davis.
This year's starting rotation is shaping up to become the baseball version of the TV hit, "Survivors." GW figures Paul Maholm and Ian Snell have nailed down their spots. The rest have a bare-knuckles battle to impress Joe Kerrigan, especially as Phil Dumatrait has taken himself out of the early rotation mix with lingering shoulder woes.
Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, and Ross Ohlendorf are looking at three open spots and maybe a long relief role. Dumatrait may end up with that slot if his arm allows, and Karstens has filled that bill in New York.
For what it's worth, the current Pirate depth chart lists the guys in this order: Maholm, Snell, Ohlendorf, Gorzo, Duke, Karstens and Dumatrait.
Our take? Well, there's a little more competition, though not enough for our taste, and the guys will be working with the knowledge that there will be alternatives chomping at the bit in Indy for once, with Jimmy Barthmaier and the losers of the battle royale eyeing starting spots in Pittsburgh.
The pitchers had a 5.08 ERA in 2008, and were in the bottom three in strikeouts and top two in walks. Joe Kerrigan probably can't do much mechanically with the gang, but his game prep should improve the mental approach that Pirate hurlers have been so sorely lacking. A little more thought and aggression could get the staff moving in the right direction, and a 4.50 ERA with an attendant rise in K's and drop in walks would be a good year.
The bullpen should be OK. It's always been the easiest component of a team to cobble together when the closer is in place, and Matt Capps should be motivated, coming off an injury and the last year of his contract (though he does have two seasons of arbitration remaining in 2010 and 2011).
John Grabow will be working on his last arbitration year, and Tyler Yates and Sean Burnett seem set, as does Donnie Veal if he can find the plate at all in the spring. Grabow is the guy they'll depend on for the 8th inning bridge to Capps. If he's dealt, Yates will probably step into the role.
That leaves two spots for a small army of bullpen candidates, and one should be taken by a sixth starter. TJ Beam and Chris Bootcheck probably have a head start on Evan Meek, Craig Hansen, Jesse Chavez, and Romulo Sanchez. Like the rotation, the pen has to zero in on the plate if they want to avoid throwing gas on a fire.
Their stat line will be linked to getting an extra inning or two out of the starters. There were a lot of cases of August burnout and a spate of minor injuries when the innings finally caught up to the bullpen.
One last thought on the pitching decisions, as brought up by Dejan Kovacevic in the Post Gazette today:
And to make it more interesting, bubble child and wild thing Craig Hansen is a Scott Boras client. The plot thickens.
The infield, at least, is set for now. Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, and Andy LaRoche will cover the diamond with Ryan Doumit behind the dish - and we think his game will pick up with Kerrigan calling the pitches, something Russell rarely did.
There will be some battling for the bench spots. Vasquez is the only sure thing, and if the Bucs don't deal, Steve Pearce is probably in, too. The backup catcher's job will be decided between Jamarillo and Robinzon Diaz.
The last two slots on the pine will be contested by Luis Cruz, Brian Bixler, Salazar, Lopez, Phillips, and Jones. The Pirates could go a number of ways here, and still may land a bargain basement free agent, like Mientkiewicz, in the next few weeks to further muddy the situation.
And if young LaRoche continues to treat a baseball like a live hornet's nest, Neil Walker may even find a little love and eventually jump into the mix.
The shadow looming over the infield is that although it's set now, come trade deadline, Adam LaRoche, Wilson, and Sanchez will all be dangled. If they have fairly healthy and normal statistical seasons in 2008, they'll almost surely be gone. That will make life real interesting in Bucco country, as none of three have an obvious replacement in the organization.
The outfield is in complete flux for the 2009 squad. To us, Nate McLouth is the only deserving full time player in a Pirate uniform. Brandon Moss is still among the walking wounded, Nyjer Morgan can't throw a baseball across a little league infield, Steve Pearce is a project in the pasture...well, you get the picture.
Salazar has an OK stick and can actually play the field, but he's left handed, as is everyone but Pearce. The suits won't start Andrew McCutchen's clock quite yet, and Jose Tabata, even if he keeps on raking, is a couple of years away at best.
The outlook this year is glum. The pitching should improve - how could it get worse? - the infield and catching should be OK, if thin, and the outfield doesn't go get the ball very well or show much corner power. In fact, there's virtually no middle-of-the-order presence at all. And it could go downhill in July at the trade deadline.
Ya know what? It doesn't bother us. The suits took apart an organization that was dysfunctional, and it will take some time to see results. Pittsburgh has more talent in the system today than it's had at any time during this decade, and it's eventually going to percolate up the show. The team will be stripped down to rock bottom this year, and hopefully in 2010, the jigsaw will start to fit together.
The Bucs are moving in the right direction, but it's a journey, not a step. If they stay the course and catch a break or two, by 2010 the light should start to shine. But until then, there are gonna be some dark days at PNC.
(Tomorrow - from the Bucs of January to the August lineup.)
Added SP Daniel Haigwood and Brian Slocum, RP Chris Bootcheck and Donnie Veal, IF Ramon Vazquez and Andy Phillips, 1B Garrett Jones, SS Anderson Machado and Pedro Lopez; C Jason Jamarillo, and OF Jeff Salazar. Lost SP John van Benschoten, RP Frankie Osoria, C Ronny Paulino and Raul Chavez, OF Jason Michaels and Chris Duffy, and IF Chris Gomez. Unsigned free agents are IF Doug Mientkiewicz and Luis Rivas, and RP Jason Davis.
This year's starting rotation is shaping up to become the baseball version of the TV hit, "Survivors." GW figures Paul Maholm and Ian Snell have nailed down their spots. The rest have a bare-knuckles battle to impress Joe Kerrigan, especially as Phil Dumatrait has taken himself out of the early rotation mix with lingering shoulder woes.
Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, and Ross Ohlendorf are looking at three open spots and maybe a long relief role. Dumatrait may end up with that slot if his arm allows, and Karstens has filled that bill in New York.
For what it's worth, the current Pirate depth chart lists the guys in this order: Maholm, Snell, Ohlendorf, Gorzo, Duke, Karstens and Dumatrait.
Our take? Well, there's a little more competition, though not enough for our taste, and the guys will be working with the knowledge that there will be alternatives chomping at the bit in Indy for once, with Jimmy Barthmaier and the losers of the battle royale eyeing starting spots in Pittsburgh.
The pitchers had a 5.08 ERA in 2008, and were in the bottom three in strikeouts and top two in walks. Joe Kerrigan probably can't do much mechanically with the gang, but his game prep should improve the mental approach that Pirate hurlers have been so sorely lacking. A little more thought and aggression could get the staff moving in the right direction, and a 4.50 ERA with an attendant rise in K's and drop in walks would be a good year.
The bullpen should be OK. It's always been the easiest component of a team to cobble together when the closer is in place, and Matt Capps should be motivated, coming off an injury and the last year of his contract (though he does have two seasons of arbitration remaining in 2010 and 2011).
John Grabow will be working on his last arbitration year, and Tyler Yates and Sean Burnett seem set, as does Donnie Veal if he can find the plate at all in the spring. Grabow is the guy they'll depend on for the 8th inning bridge to Capps. If he's dealt, Yates will probably step into the role.
That leaves two spots for a small army of bullpen candidates, and one should be taken by a sixth starter. TJ Beam and Chris Bootcheck probably have a head start on Evan Meek, Craig Hansen, Jesse Chavez, and Romulo Sanchez. Like the rotation, the pen has to zero in on the plate if they want to avoid throwing gas on a fire.
Their stat line will be linked to getting an extra inning or two out of the starters. There were a lot of cases of August burnout and a spate of minor injuries when the innings finally caught up to the bullpen.
One last thought on the pitching decisions, as brought up by Dejan Kovacevic in the Post Gazette today:
"Phil Dumatrait, Sean Burnett, Craig Hansen and (Tyler) Yates are the only pitchers on the 40-man roster who are out of options, meaning they must make the team -- the 25-man roster -- out of spring training or the Pirates risk losing them on waivers if they try to send them to the minors. In Burnett's case, if he does not make the team, he would become a free agent."
And to make it more interesting, bubble child and wild thing Craig Hansen is a Scott Boras client. The plot thickens.
The infield, at least, is set for now. Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, and Andy LaRoche will cover the diamond with Ryan Doumit behind the dish - and we think his game will pick up with Kerrigan calling the pitches, something Russell rarely did.
There will be some battling for the bench spots. Vasquez is the only sure thing, and if the Bucs don't deal, Steve Pearce is probably in, too. The backup catcher's job will be decided between Jamarillo and Robinzon Diaz.
The last two slots on the pine will be contested by Luis Cruz, Brian Bixler, Salazar, Lopez, Phillips, and Jones. The Pirates could go a number of ways here, and still may land a bargain basement free agent, like Mientkiewicz, in the next few weeks to further muddy the situation.
And if young LaRoche continues to treat a baseball like a live hornet's nest, Neil Walker may even find a little love and eventually jump into the mix.
The shadow looming over the infield is that although it's set now, come trade deadline, Adam LaRoche, Wilson, and Sanchez will all be dangled. If they have fairly healthy and normal statistical seasons in 2008, they'll almost surely be gone. That will make life real interesting in Bucco country, as none of three have an obvious replacement in the organization.
The outfield is in complete flux for the 2009 squad. To us, Nate McLouth is the only deserving full time player in a Pirate uniform. Brandon Moss is still among the walking wounded, Nyjer Morgan can't throw a baseball across a little league infield, Steve Pearce is a project in the pasture...well, you get the picture.
Salazar has an OK stick and can actually play the field, but he's left handed, as is everyone but Pearce. The suits won't start Andrew McCutchen's clock quite yet, and Jose Tabata, even if he keeps on raking, is a couple of years away at best.
The outlook this year is glum. The pitching should improve - how could it get worse? - the infield and catching should be OK, if thin, and the outfield doesn't go get the ball very well or show much corner power. In fact, there's virtually no middle-of-the-order presence at all. And it could go downhill in July at the trade deadline.
Ya know what? It doesn't bother us. The suits took apart an organization that was dysfunctional, and it will take some time to see results. Pittsburgh has more talent in the system today than it's had at any time during this decade, and it's eventually going to percolate up the show. The team will be stripped down to rock bottom this year, and hopefully in 2010, the jigsaw will start to fit together.
The Bucs are moving in the right direction, but it's a journey, not a step. If they stay the course and catch a break or two, by 2010 the light should start to shine. But until then, there are gonna be some dark days at PNC.
(Tomorrow - from the Bucs of January to the August lineup.)
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