Hey, in a surprise development, the Pirate suits blinked as they approached Nate McLouth's arbitration panel in Phoenix today. Not only did they ink him for this year, but in a marathon session before the hearing, they signed him up for four years.
With his bonus, McLouth gets $3.5M this year, $4.5M in 2010, $6.5M in 2011, and has a team option for $10.65M in 2012, according to several sources. He has the usual array of incentives, and his are escalators - not one-time bonus checks, but money added directly to his base pay that carries over for future seasons.
It's a fair deal; Ryan Ludwick just signed for $5M, Corey Hart for $3.25M, Andre Ethier for $3.1M, and Rick Ankiel for $2.83M, so the baseline numbers fit.
If they exercise the option years, Pittsburgh now has McLouth, Ian Snell, and Paul Maholm under control through the 2012 season, and Ryan Doumit until 2013.
The guys under contract this year now are Jack Wilson ($7.25M), Adam LaRoche ($7.05M), Freddy Sanchez ($6.1M), McLouth ($3.5M), Maholm ($3.5M), Snell ($3M), Doumit ($2.35M), Matt Capps ($2.3M), John Grabow ($2.3M), Zach Duke ($2.2M), Ramon Vazquez ($2M), Eric Hinske ($1.5M), and Tyler Yates ($1.3M). That's $44.35M for the signed, sealed, and delivered lucky thirteen players.
Throw in a dozen guys making minimum wage on the 25-man roster, and we're looking at about a $50M payroll without bonuses, equivalent of two years of Manny. By himself. The City should do so well with its budget; that's $4M under the suit's self-imposed cap.
Well, they wanted flexibility, and did a good job of getting it, too. They've got four young guns bought out of their arbitration years; maybe they'll work on extending Matt Capps next. Heck, they have enough to take on another Boras client in the 2009 draft.
And ya know what? We're not bummed at the figure; actually, we're kinda impressed. They have control of their core youngsters, either contractually or through future arbitration, and a couple of bucks in play money to satisfy whatever small itch they'd like to scratch.
And they'll be in good shape next season, too. If we read the service times right (and please don't assume we can; if there's anyone else eligible, give GW a yell), the following guys will be arbitration-eligible after the season: Yates (year 3), Capps and Duke (year 2), and Sean Burnett and Tom Gorzelanny (first year). Jeff Karstens could end up a "Super Two" if he stays on the roster all year. And even if Pedro defies the odds and arrives in 2010, he's signed for $500K.
So no bank-breakers there, plus Wilson, Adam LaRoche, and Sanchez are pocketing over $20M this year, and we assume some of that should shake free over the course of the season.
Bob Nutting hired the right guys.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
Craig Hansen - A Sleeper?
Craig Hansen is the big - 6'6", 230 lb - flamethrower that the Bucs got from the Red Sox as part of the Jay Bay deal. Of the four guys Pittsburgh were sent in return, he's probably struggled the most, though that LaRoche kid is givng him a good run for the money.
The 25-year old native of Glen Cove, NY, used to hit the upper 90s with his heater, but with the Pirates, his velocity has dropped to 92 MPH, and he hasn't found a plate big enough to split yet.
It wasn't always that way. After a so-so frosh year at St. John's in the Big East, he became the closer as a sophomore, striking out 59 in 40-1/3 frames and saving ten games. Hansen had his coming out party during his junior season with the Red Storm.
He put together a 3-2 record with 14 saves, punching out 85 hitters in 64 innings with a 1.68 ERA, and was named a first-team All-American by Baseball America. It impressed the nearby Boston suits.
They took him with the 26th pick of the first round of the 2005 draft, and signed him to a four-year deal valued at $4M. The Red Sox also added him to the 40-man roster. Nice vote of confidence, hey?
The Red Sox assigned Hansen to the GCL briefly before sending him to the AA Portland Sea Dogs. He joined Boston for a September cup of coffee, making his debut in the show on September 19 against the Devil Rays. Hansen struck out the first man he faced, pitching a perfect inning with two strikeouts.
He started 2006 at Portland, and after 5 appearances was shipped to AAA Pawtucket. Hansen worked 36 innings there, K'ing 26 and walking - red flag here - 19. But they called him up to Beantown anyway, and he took his lumps.
Hansen got into 38 games, and had a 6.63 ERA as a middle reliever. He struck out 30 in 38 innings and walked 15. The big guy got to start 2007 back in AAA.
He spent the year there, and his control, well, it was out of control. In 51-1/3 innings, he walked 32 and struck out 48. The Red Sox shipped him to Mesa after the season to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, where he threw very little, but did OK. In five innings, he whiffed 8 and issued just one free pass.
Hansen complained of fatigue - and his roomies beefed about his snoring - and after some tests, they found out he had sleep apnea. That was in 2006, but he soldiered through it for awhile. But after the 2007 season, he finally had surgery to correct it.
We'd like to report that the now bright-eyed, bushy-tailed Hansen immediately made a turnaround. But alas, it was more of the same ol', same ol' in 2008. He started out at Pawtucket again, and it looked promising. In 16-2/3 innings, he sent 17 batters back to the dugout empty-handed and walked five.
But the Red Sox couldn't let well enough be, and called him back up. In 32 innings of work, he gave up 23 free passes and K'ed 25. Then it was off to Pittsburgh. He walked 20! in 16 innings and only punched out seven guys.
On August 27th, Hansen was optioned to AAA Indy after he allowed four earned runs without recording an out against the Cubs the night before. Hansen was recalled on September 2nd. He had a whole two innings with the Indians to get his act back together.
So what do the Bucs have, besides a guy with a ton of potential but who's been slowly circling the drain for the past three years? Here's what Sox Prospects said about him last season:
Hansen is the textbook example of a guy that the Red Sox - and the Pirates, for that matter - wouldn't keep on the farm long enough to learn his craft. Everybody loves that power arm. And he's out of options, even before he hit his arbitration years.
We're not sure, given his track record, why Pittsburgh didn't start him out at Indy instead of throwing him right into the fire. Maybe the suits were hoping he'd show the fans that they knew what they were doing when they swung the Bay deal; maybe they just were enamored of his rifle. Could be with no options, they figured "what the heck," too.
At any rate, it's time for Craig Hansen to live up to the promise this spring. Joe Kerrigan has his work cut out for him. And we hope he's up to the task. We'd hate to see that 97 MPH heater of old painting the corner while he's in someone else's uniform.
The 25-year old native of Glen Cove, NY, used to hit the upper 90s with his heater, but with the Pirates, his velocity has dropped to 92 MPH, and he hasn't found a plate big enough to split yet.
It wasn't always that way. After a so-so frosh year at St. John's in the Big East, he became the closer as a sophomore, striking out 59 in 40-1/3 frames and saving ten games. Hansen had his coming out party during his junior season with the Red Storm.
He put together a 3-2 record with 14 saves, punching out 85 hitters in 64 innings with a 1.68 ERA, and was named a first-team All-American by Baseball America. It impressed the nearby Boston suits.
They took him with the 26th pick of the first round of the 2005 draft, and signed him to a four-year deal valued at $4M. The Red Sox also added him to the 40-man roster. Nice vote of confidence, hey?
The Red Sox assigned Hansen to the GCL briefly before sending him to the AA Portland Sea Dogs. He joined Boston for a September cup of coffee, making his debut in the show on September 19 against the Devil Rays. Hansen struck out the first man he faced, pitching a perfect inning with two strikeouts.
He started 2006 at Portland, and after 5 appearances was shipped to AAA Pawtucket. Hansen worked 36 innings there, K'ing 26 and walking - red flag here - 19. But they called him up to Beantown anyway, and he took his lumps.
Hansen got into 38 games, and had a 6.63 ERA as a middle reliever. He struck out 30 in 38 innings and walked 15. The big guy got to start 2007 back in AAA.
He spent the year there, and his control, well, it was out of control. In 51-1/3 innings, he walked 32 and struck out 48. The Red Sox shipped him to Mesa after the season to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, where he threw very little, but did OK. In five innings, he whiffed 8 and issued just one free pass.
Hansen complained of fatigue - and his roomies beefed about his snoring - and after some tests, they found out he had sleep apnea. That was in 2006, but he soldiered through it for awhile. But after the 2007 season, he finally had surgery to correct it.
We'd like to report that the now bright-eyed, bushy-tailed Hansen immediately made a turnaround. But alas, it was more of the same ol', same ol' in 2008. He started out at Pawtucket again, and it looked promising. In 16-2/3 innings, he sent 17 batters back to the dugout empty-handed and walked five.
But the Red Sox couldn't let well enough be, and called him back up. In 32 innings of work, he gave up 23 free passes and K'ed 25. Then it was off to Pittsburgh. He walked 20! in 16 innings and only punched out seven guys.
On August 27th, Hansen was optioned to AAA Indy after he allowed four earned runs without recording an out against the Cubs the night before. Hansen was recalled on September 2nd. He had a whole two innings with the Indians to get his act back together.
So what do the Bucs have, besides a guy with a ton of potential but who's been slowly circling the drain for the past three years? Here's what Sox Prospects said about him last season:
"Hansen's fastball has historically topped out in the high 90s, and he consistently hit the mid-90s. In 2008, he's been sitting more around 92 mph. He also possesses an excellent high-80s slider, which has been somewhat of a mystery -- sometimes its absolutely dominant and other times it just isn't there."Well, he best do it now.
"A fierce competitor who has struggled with adversity early in his professional career. Seems to have the tools to be a successful major league closer, just needs to work on his confidence and composure on the mound. Struggles with getting behind early in counts. When he gets first pitch strikes, he can be dominant. All in all, if Hansen can get his slider going on a regular basis, he is an MLB-caliber reliever."
Hansen is the textbook example of a guy that the Red Sox - and the Pirates, for that matter - wouldn't keep on the farm long enough to learn his craft. Everybody loves that power arm. And he's out of options, even before he hit his arbitration years.
We're not sure, given his track record, why Pittsburgh didn't start him out at Indy instead of throwing him right into the fire. Maybe the suits were hoping he'd show the fans that they knew what they were doing when they swung the Bay deal; maybe they just were enamored of his rifle. Could be with no options, they figured "what the heck," too.
At any rate, it's time for Craig Hansen to live up to the promise this spring. Joe Kerrigan has his work cut out for him. And we hope he's up to the task. We'd hate to see that 97 MPH heater of old painting the corner while he's in someone else's uniform.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
The Beat Goes On..
* Some fans were left wondering when they discovered that Pedro Alvarez had tendinitis added to his list of ailments. That, at least, is something to not worry about. It's very rarely chronic, and the way he got it, during instructional league in the fall, is not unusual - he probably worked too hard.
The Pirate spin is he was in lousy shape, and there may be some truth to that; he probably did the minimum while in contract limbo. But our guess is that when he reported, he tried to impress the brass and just overdid it, causing the tendinitis. And the cure is, plain and simply, rest; no workouts allowed. So it ended up a no-win situation for the star-crossed infielder.
We don't have any problem with his conditioning. He's just a college kid getting a lesson in a fishbowl about professional shape, and we think he gets it now. Alvarez is a big guy, and he'll never look like Twiggy. The Bucs just showed some tough love (and maybe some residual ire at Scott Boras), and the message was received.
* The Pirates have seven guys eyeing an outfield spot, and five are lefty. We thought we'd take a look at their splits, and see what problems, and opportunities, that presents, using their career stats.
Two of the everyday players, LHs Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss, have fairly decent splits; McLouth's is .264/.252 and Moss' .244/.266 (yah, he hits lefties better, but he's only faced them 76 times) over their brief careers. McLouth's slugging percentage drops mightily against lefties (.536/.388); Moss' doesn't (.442/.422).
So John Russell may want to toggle McLouth around in the lineup, depending on the mound opponent, while Moss can be penciled in every day behind the middle of the order.
LH Nyjer Morgan's batting average shows a big split (.307/.250), but his OBP doesn't (.353/.339), good news for a top of the order guy. Both, though, are low. Ideally, you want at least a .375 OBP leading off, edging towards .400. Wait for those walks, Nyjer!
Eric Hinske is a batter that you want to pick your spots for; he needs protected. His split is .264/.219, and his slugging % is .458/.365, numbers befitting a LH platoon player.
LH Jeff Salazar rarely faces lefties; he only has 22 career at-bats against them. His splits are .245/.273, OBP .356/.273. Salazar is another platoon player.
The righties are Craig Monroe and Steve Pearce. Monroe is on an even keel, hitting .250/.259 with a slugging % of .443/.468. Pearce has raked lefties, batting .244/.266 with his slugging percentage at an eyepopping .348/.615 split. But with a mere 177 MLB at-bats, those numbers can't be counted on very much.
The verdict? Nah, not that easy. There's only three guys with any kind of track record. McLouth (4 seasons) and Monroe (8 seasons) hit pretty equally no matter which side they face, while Hinske (7 seasons) is a one-way batter.
The other four all have 2 or 3 seasons under their belt, so the sample doesn't tell much of a tale. Salazar, Moss, Pearce and Morgan are pups; none has batted over 275 times in the show yet.
Four of guys - McLouth, Moss, Morgan, and Monroe - so far seem capable of handling all comers, while Hinske, Pearce, and Salazar have sizeable splits. Still, not too bad for being young and tilted to one side of the batter's box.
* Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune-Review has the dope on Brandon Moss' knee surgery.
It ends up his knee was "too angled" for the microfracture procedure, so they just cleaned it out with the scope.
He also reports that Jeff Karstens is throwing bullpen sessions, so his achy elbow from mini-camp isn't a big deal at this point.
* Jen Langosch of MLB.com talked to Joe Kerrigan, who doesn't have any major concerns over the Pirates' pitching mechanics:
* Chuck Finder of the Post-Gazette profiled Adam LaRoche, who gave his preview of the upcoming season:
The Pirate spin is he was in lousy shape, and there may be some truth to that; he probably did the minimum while in contract limbo. But our guess is that when he reported, he tried to impress the brass and just overdid it, causing the tendinitis. And the cure is, plain and simply, rest; no workouts allowed. So it ended up a no-win situation for the star-crossed infielder.
We don't have any problem with his conditioning. He's just a college kid getting a lesson in a fishbowl about professional shape, and we think he gets it now. Alvarez is a big guy, and he'll never look like Twiggy. The Bucs just showed some tough love (and maybe some residual ire at Scott Boras), and the message was received.
* The Pirates have seven guys eyeing an outfield spot, and five are lefty. We thought we'd take a look at their splits, and see what problems, and opportunities, that presents, using their career stats.
Two of the everyday players, LHs Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss, have fairly decent splits; McLouth's is .264/.252 and Moss' .244/.266 (yah, he hits lefties better, but he's only faced them 76 times) over their brief careers. McLouth's slugging percentage drops mightily against lefties (.536/.388); Moss' doesn't (.442/.422).
So John Russell may want to toggle McLouth around in the lineup, depending on the mound opponent, while Moss can be penciled in every day behind the middle of the order.
LH Nyjer Morgan's batting average shows a big split (.307/.250), but his OBP doesn't (.353/.339), good news for a top of the order guy. Both, though, are low. Ideally, you want at least a .375 OBP leading off, edging towards .400. Wait for those walks, Nyjer!
Eric Hinske is a batter that you want to pick your spots for; he needs protected. His split is .264/.219, and his slugging % is .458/.365, numbers befitting a LH platoon player.
LH Jeff Salazar rarely faces lefties; he only has 22 career at-bats against them. His splits are .245/.273, OBP .356/.273. Salazar is another platoon player.
The righties are Craig Monroe and Steve Pearce. Monroe is on an even keel, hitting .250/.259 with a slugging % of .443/.468. Pearce has raked lefties, batting .244/.266 with his slugging percentage at an eyepopping .348/.615 split. But with a mere 177 MLB at-bats, those numbers can't be counted on very much.
The verdict? Nah, not that easy. There's only three guys with any kind of track record. McLouth (4 seasons) and Monroe (8 seasons) hit pretty equally no matter which side they face, while Hinske (7 seasons) is a one-way batter.
The other four all have 2 or 3 seasons under their belt, so the sample doesn't tell much of a tale. Salazar, Moss, Pearce and Morgan are pups; none has batted over 275 times in the show yet.
Four of guys - McLouth, Moss, Morgan, and Monroe - so far seem capable of handling all comers, while Hinske, Pearce, and Salazar have sizeable splits. Still, not too bad for being young and tilted to one side of the batter's box.
* Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune-Review has the dope on Brandon Moss' knee surgery.
It ends up his knee was "too angled" for the microfracture procedure, so they just cleaned it out with the scope.
He also reports that Jeff Karstens is throwing bullpen sessions, so his achy elbow from mini-camp isn't a big deal at this point.
* Jen Langosch of MLB.com talked to Joe Kerrigan, who doesn't have any major concerns over the Pirates' pitching mechanics:
"I see good deliveries. I see no major projects. I see a few tweaks, a few minor adjustments here and there, but everybody has that."And that included Donnie Veal.
"But as a whole, we have a good set of deliveries here," he continued. "That's a good foundation. There are really no major projects to tear down and rebuild, which is great."
* Chuck Finder of the Post-Gazette profiled Adam LaRoche, who gave his preview of the upcoming season:
"We have the same core coming back. What we have going for us is the same guys with a little bit more experience, hopefully a little more established as a group, a little more confident. We still have to prove to ourselves that we're a good ballclub. It's going to be a grind.
"Again, clubs are going to look at us as not a threat. That's a fact. We're not going to scare a lot of people. Which is good, really; we can sneak up on people.
"We don't have the luxury of having injuries this year. I mean, can't do it. We got to get guys to stay well and grind it out. There aren't going to be a lot of homers hit. There aren't going to be a lot of shutouts. It's going to be a grind. But it's going to be fun. Guys want to win. Guys are competitive."
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Notes From the Campfire...
* Phil Dumatrait is throwing long toss at camp, and in a couple of weeks, he should begin working off of a mound. Widely thought to be a DL candidate, he now looks like he has a chance to be the long man out of the pen when camp breaks, stretching his arm out until he can rejoin the rotation later in the summer.
He can thank extended spring training, due to the WBC, if he leaves Bradenton on the 25-man roster. But what's good for him isn't such great news for a couple of bubble guys that the suits will have to decide on sooner instead of later now.
Donnie Veal, the Rule 5 pick with mechanical hitches, could find another LH long man ahead of him. And whomever the sixth starter for the Pirates ends up to be - Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen, Gorzo, Zach Duke, or long-shot Jimmy Barthmaier - may find themselves in Indy when the season starts instead of Pittsburgh.
In the long run, the only guy it really affects is Veal. If he doesn't make the roster, he has to be offered back to the Cubs. The other starting pitchers all have options, so they can start in AAA without risking them on waivers.
* The most interesting storyline to GW is what the braintrust decides to do with Craig Hansen. He's the victim of being fast-tracked by the Red Sox, and his potential hasn't translated into MLB production. If ever a guy needed some innings in the minors, Hansen is the one.
But he's out of options. The suits must feel the heat; it would be a blow to their touted player evaluation mystique if he was cut after being a part of the wildly vilified Jason Bay deal last July.
And they're not frivolous or ego-driven decisions being made regarding the futures of Hansen and Veal. Both are huge projects, but have power arms in a popgun system and great upside if they can ever harness their stuff, the key word being "if."
* Which Ian Snell decides to show up for the Pirates will go a long way to determining the effectiveness of the staff. He had a dismal 2008, showing immaturity, a wild streak that wouldn't end, and running up some hellacious pitch counts. But after a trip to the DL cleared his head a bit, Snell went 3-3 with 3.68 ERA in his final eight starts in August and September.
In those final 44 innings of 2008, Snell gave up 42 hits, struck out 37 batters and walked 21. He pitched over 6 innings just once in that span, and threw under 95 pitches twice. So he has a ways to go to get back to the glory days, and being aggressive and getting ahead of batters will be the key.
Another question is whether starting the spring by pitching for Puerto Rico in the WBC will help or hurt. It should give Snell a jolt out of the box, but he's a guy the Pirates expect to start 30+ games, and how his arm will hold up in the dog days will be seen. A good performance in the WBC would have him starting the year with his head screwed on straight, but what if he runs into a couple of tough outings...?
* We're also into redemption (blame that on the good nuns at St. Wendelin's), and Snell's not alone in searching for some. Can Zach Duke, and especially Tom Gorzelanny, find the stuff that made them effective MLB pitchers again? That's a tale we'll be watching with anticipation. They could really solidify the middle and back of the rotation if they're on their game.
* We're looking forward to seeing some of the young arms in action. While GW has his doubts about stalling Steve Pearce, Andrew McCutchen, and Neil Walker at AAA, it does make perfect sense to let Evan Meek get repetitions at Indy and hopefully reinforce the success he had in the minors last season.
Daniel McCutchen, Jimmy Barthmaier, Juan Mateo, Jeff Sues, and Ron Uviedo are all guys whose stuff will be on exhibit, too. This camp has a little more going on than last year's did, and we're eager to see what's ahead.
* Speaking of the future, GW really enjoys following the exploits of the two Indian pitchers, Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel. They're going to the GCL, and may - heck, probably - will never get past A ball.
But they love the sport, and bring some uninhibited joy and wonder to spring, kinda like little league kids going straight to the pros. And hey, the strongest substance they're on is probably garam masala. They remind us that baseball isn't always a business - sometimes it's still just a game.
And after all, it's the game that we all love.
He can thank extended spring training, due to the WBC, if he leaves Bradenton on the 25-man roster. But what's good for him isn't such great news for a couple of bubble guys that the suits will have to decide on sooner instead of later now.
Donnie Veal, the Rule 5 pick with mechanical hitches, could find another LH long man ahead of him. And whomever the sixth starter for the Pirates ends up to be - Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen, Gorzo, Zach Duke, or long-shot Jimmy Barthmaier - may find themselves in Indy when the season starts instead of Pittsburgh.
In the long run, the only guy it really affects is Veal. If he doesn't make the roster, he has to be offered back to the Cubs. The other starting pitchers all have options, so they can start in AAA without risking them on waivers.
* The most interesting storyline to GW is what the braintrust decides to do with Craig Hansen. He's the victim of being fast-tracked by the Red Sox, and his potential hasn't translated into MLB production. If ever a guy needed some innings in the minors, Hansen is the one.
But he's out of options. The suits must feel the heat; it would be a blow to their touted player evaluation mystique if he was cut after being a part of the wildly vilified Jason Bay deal last July.
And they're not frivolous or ego-driven decisions being made regarding the futures of Hansen and Veal. Both are huge projects, but have power arms in a popgun system and great upside if they can ever harness their stuff, the key word being "if."
* Which Ian Snell decides to show up for the Pirates will go a long way to determining the effectiveness of the staff. He had a dismal 2008, showing immaturity, a wild streak that wouldn't end, and running up some hellacious pitch counts. But after a trip to the DL cleared his head a bit, Snell went 3-3 with 3.68 ERA in his final eight starts in August and September.
In those final 44 innings of 2008, Snell gave up 42 hits, struck out 37 batters and walked 21. He pitched over 6 innings just once in that span, and threw under 95 pitches twice. So he has a ways to go to get back to the glory days, and being aggressive and getting ahead of batters will be the key.
Another question is whether starting the spring by pitching for Puerto Rico in the WBC will help or hurt. It should give Snell a jolt out of the box, but he's a guy the Pirates expect to start 30+ games, and how his arm will hold up in the dog days will be seen. A good performance in the WBC would have him starting the year with his head screwed on straight, but what if he runs into a couple of tough outings...?
* We're also into redemption (blame that on the good nuns at St. Wendelin's), and Snell's not alone in searching for some. Can Zach Duke, and especially Tom Gorzelanny, find the stuff that made them effective MLB pitchers again? That's a tale we'll be watching with anticipation. They could really solidify the middle and back of the rotation if they're on their game.
* We're looking forward to seeing some of the young arms in action. While GW has his doubts about stalling Steve Pearce, Andrew McCutchen, and Neil Walker at AAA, it does make perfect sense to let Evan Meek get repetitions at Indy and hopefully reinforce the success he had in the minors last season.
Daniel McCutchen, Jimmy Barthmaier, Juan Mateo, Jeff Sues, and Ron Uviedo are all guys whose stuff will be on exhibit, too. This camp has a little more going on than last year's did, and we're eager to see what's ahead.
* Speaking of the future, GW really enjoys following the exploits of the two Indian pitchers, Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel. They're going to the GCL, and may - heck, probably - will never get past A ball.
But they love the sport, and bring some uninhibited joy and wonder to spring, kinda like little league kids going straight to the pros. And hey, the strongest substance they're on is probably garam masala. They remind us that baseball isn't always a business - sometimes it's still just a game.
And after all, it's the game that we all love.
Friday, February 13, 2009
A Little of This...
While the Pirate pitchers and catchers are getting poked and probed by the medicos, GW thought he'd take a quick lap around Bradenton and the league to see whassup as we enter spring traing:
* Now that the batteries are in camp, the next reporting date is Monday, when the position players are due in. Full squad workouts start Tuesday.
* The Bucs and Nate McLouth still may reach a middle ground on contract numbers and avoid arbitration. "It's possible we will be able to reach an agreement, and maybe more so today than when I spoke to you last," McLouth told Jen Langosch of MLB.com. "I don't know what odds I would put on it or what percentage, but there's a chance."
If they do ink a deal, it'll be a one-year contract, and they'll agree to disagree until next season.
* Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette picks out what he sees as the top ten issues confronting the 2009 edition of the Buccos, topped by Adam LaRoche's miserable April starts.
* Rob Beirtempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review reports that LHP Phil Dumatrait just began tossing this week and looks like a very likely bullpen candidate to start the season.
* The Associated Press' Alan Robinson talks about the Pirate pitching. Buc skipper John Russell had this to say about Joe Kerrigan and his staff: “Joe is not going to be a miracle worker, he’s not going to come in and sprinkle fairy dust around and everybody’s going to be a Cy Young pitcher. But these guys will be better.”
* The Top 100 prospects list of 2009 was released by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Pittsburgh is represented by Pedro Alvarez (#4), Andrew McCutchen (#25), and Jose Tabata (#91).
Current Bucs that were on the 2008 list were Andy LaRoche (#14), Andrew McCutchen (#24), Steve Pearce (#43), and Neil Walker (#94).
* The Sporting News takes the view that the 2009 Pirate squad will end up in the cellar of the NL Central Division.
* Tom Singer of MLB.com explains how the hot stove turned cold for so many free agents this year. He lists the guys that took the biggest pay cuts this off-season:
• Jason Giambi: cut $15.75 million ($21 million with Yankees to $5.25 million with A's).
• Mike Hampton: $13 million ($15 million with Braves to $2 million with Astros).
• Bobby Abreu: $11 million ($16 million with Yankees to $5 million with Angels).
• Andy Pettitte: $10.5 million ($16 million to $5.5 million with Yankees).
• Carl Pavano: $9.5 million ($11 million with Yankees to $1.5 million with Indians).
• Pat Burrell: $7 million ($14 million with Phillies to $7 million with Rays).
• Adam Dunn: $5 million ($13 million with Reds/D-backs to $8 million with Nats).
• Omar Vizquel: $4.9 million ($5.3 million with Giants to Minor deal with Rangers).
• Jason Varitek: $4 million ($9 million to $5 million with Red Sox).
• Angel Berroa: $3.95 million ($4.75 million with Dodgers to Minor deal with Yankees, valued at $800,000 if on big league roster).
• Juan Uribe: $3.5 million ($4.5 million with White Sox to Minor deal with Giants, valued at $1 million if on big league roster).
• Brad Penny: $3.5 million ($8.5 million with Dodgers to $5 million with Red Sox).
* Baseball America rates the #1 draft picks of the decade - and hey, they actually have three numero unos they consider worse selections than Bryan Bullington!
* Now that the batteries are in camp, the next reporting date is Monday, when the position players are due in. Full squad workouts start Tuesday.
* The Bucs and Nate McLouth still may reach a middle ground on contract numbers and avoid arbitration. "It's possible we will be able to reach an agreement, and maybe more so today than when I spoke to you last," McLouth told Jen Langosch of MLB.com. "I don't know what odds I would put on it or what percentage, but there's a chance."
If they do ink a deal, it'll be a one-year contract, and they'll agree to disagree until next season.
* Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette picks out what he sees as the top ten issues confronting the 2009 edition of the Buccos, topped by Adam LaRoche's miserable April starts.
* Rob Beirtempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review reports that LHP Phil Dumatrait just began tossing this week and looks like a very likely bullpen candidate to start the season.
* The Associated Press' Alan Robinson talks about the Pirate pitching. Buc skipper John Russell had this to say about Joe Kerrigan and his staff: “Joe is not going to be a miracle worker, he’s not going to come in and sprinkle fairy dust around and everybody’s going to be a Cy Young pitcher. But these guys will be better.”
* The Top 100 prospects list of 2009 was released by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Pittsburgh is represented by Pedro Alvarez (#4), Andrew McCutchen (#25), and Jose Tabata (#91).
Current Bucs that were on the 2008 list were Andy LaRoche (#14), Andrew McCutchen (#24), Steve Pearce (#43), and Neil Walker (#94).
* The Sporting News takes the view that the 2009 Pirate squad will end up in the cellar of the NL Central Division.
* Tom Singer of MLB.com explains how the hot stove turned cold for so many free agents this year. He lists the guys that took the biggest pay cuts this off-season:
• Jason Giambi: cut $15.75 million ($21 million with Yankees to $5.25 million with A's).
• Mike Hampton: $13 million ($15 million with Braves to $2 million with Astros).
• Bobby Abreu: $11 million ($16 million with Yankees to $5 million with Angels).
• Andy Pettitte: $10.5 million ($16 million to $5.5 million with Yankees).
• Carl Pavano: $9.5 million ($11 million with Yankees to $1.5 million with Indians).
• Pat Burrell: $7 million ($14 million with Phillies to $7 million with Rays).
• Adam Dunn: $5 million ($13 million with Reds/D-backs to $8 million with Nats).
• Omar Vizquel: $4.9 million ($5.3 million with Giants to Minor deal with Rangers).
• Jason Varitek: $4 million ($9 million to $5 million with Red Sox).
• Angel Berroa: $3.95 million ($4.75 million with Dodgers to Minor deal with Yankees, valued at $800,000 if on big league roster).
• Juan Uribe: $3.5 million ($4.5 million with White Sox to Minor deal with Giants, valued at $1 million if on big league roster).
• Brad Penny: $3.5 million ($8.5 million with Dodgers to $5 million with Red Sox).
* Baseball America rates the #1 draft picks of the decade - and hey, they actually have three numero unos they consider worse selections than Bryan Bullington!
Thursday, February 12, 2009
The Pitchers Report...
The Steeler hangover is about gone, and won't resurface until the April draft. The winds are howling, and we may see some flakes tonight. But hey, the pitchers and catchers are reporting, and finally 'tis the season when a young man's fancy turns to thoughts of...baseball.
28 pitchers will start working out under the Florida sun, and all that's absolutely certain is that only 12 of them will break camp as Pittsburgh Pirates.
The questions to be answered in the next few weeks from the staff:
* Will talent or options have more effect on shaping the final roster?
It won't cause a problem with the rotation. Phil Dumatrait is the only guy out of options. Jeff Karstens, Tom Gorzelanny and Jimmy Barthmaier all have one option year left, while Ross Ohlendorf has two, and Zach Duke has three.
Daniel McCutchen's clock hasn't started yet, and Paul Maholm and Ian Snell are under contract. Virgil Vasquez is only in camp for a cup of coffee before he heads to the hinterlands.
Ah, but the bullpen. Matt Capps is signed this year, as is John Grabow, but Sean Burnett and Craig Hansen are out of options and either make the club or are probably lost. Ditto with Rule 5 pickup Donnie Veal. Tyler Yates is out of options, too. Denny Bautista has an opt-out clause if he doesn't make the 25-man by June 1st.
That leaves Chris Bootcheck, Jesse Chavez, Dave Davidson, Jason Davis, Daniel Haigwood, Juan Mateo, Evan Meek, Romulo Sanchez, Brian Slocum, Jeff Sues, and Ron Uviedo in the less than envious position of holding minor-league contracts, so they can go straight to the bushes, risk-free.
Now some of them, of course, are in Bradenton for a look-see only, and are ticketed for the minors no matter what they do. But for a handful, it's not a very level playing field. It'll be interesting to see how the Pirates play it.
They've shown some cases where they're quick to the gun for underachievers (see Matty Mo & Tom Gorzelanny) and other cases where they just fall in love with potential (see Andy LaRoche). It should keep everyone on their toes right up to cutdown day.
* Will Joe Kerrigan's veteran counsel break the Bucco urge to nibble, nibble, nibble? Can he somehow convince these guys that going after batters and getting that first pitch over sounds like a plan?
Jeff Andrews was a pretty laissez faire kind of coach. We'll see what difference a more aggressive guy like Kerrigan, with an eye to detail and pre-game prep, will have on the staff.
Remember, some of these pitchers have had four coaches (Spin Williams, Jim Colbert, Jeff Andrews, and now Kerrigan) in five years. Who knows how many conflicting bits of pitching minutiae are floating around between their ears?
* This is a staff that pitches to contact; will the team bail them out or add gas to the fire? Only two teams struck out fewer batters, and only two teams had a worse defensive efficiency rating - 1/3 of all the balls put in play against the Bucs resulted in a safe baserunner. Throw in 657 walks, and the result is a bunch of guys circling the bases when the Pirates are in the field.
So the two keys to improving the pitching are pretty basic stuff - throw strikes and catch the dang ball. Both could be a challenge. If they're up to the task, the pitching could be OK. If not, same ol', same ol'.
* The final piece of the puzzle is the Gunner's famous "hidden vigorish." What are the odds of two pitchers - Maholm and Grabow - having career years while everyone else implodes, ends up on the DL, gets sent down, or in some cases, all three? Maybe those odds will reverse themselves this season.
After all, they say that the sun shines on every dog's butt once in awhile. Maybe 2009 will be the year our mutts catch a couple of rays.
28 pitchers will start working out under the Florida sun, and all that's absolutely certain is that only 12 of them will break camp as Pittsburgh Pirates.
The questions to be answered in the next few weeks from the staff:
* Will talent or options have more effect on shaping the final roster?
It won't cause a problem with the rotation. Phil Dumatrait is the only guy out of options. Jeff Karstens, Tom Gorzelanny and Jimmy Barthmaier all have one option year left, while Ross Ohlendorf has two, and Zach Duke has three.
Daniel McCutchen's clock hasn't started yet, and Paul Maholm and Ian Snell are under contract. Virgil Vasquez is only in camp for a cup of coffee before he heads to the hinterlands.
Ah, but the bullpen. Matt Capps is signed this year, as is John Grabow, but Sean Burnett and Craig Hansen are out of options and either make the club or are probably lost. Ditto with Rule 5 pickup Donnie Veal. Tyler Yates is out of options, too. Denny Bautista has an opt-out clause if he doesn't make the 25-man by June 1st.
That leaves Chris Bootcheck, Jesse Chavez, Dave Davidson, Jason Davis, Daniel Haigwood, Juan Mateo, Evan Meek, Romulo Sanchez, Brian Slocum, Jeff Sues, and Ron Uviedo in the less than envious position of holding minor-league contracts, so they can go straight to the bushes, risk-free.
Now some of them, of course, are in Bradenton for a look-see only, and are ticketed for the minors no matter what they do. But for a handful, it's not a very level playing field. It'll be interesting to see how the Pirates play it.
They've shown some cases where they're quick to the gun for underachievers (see Matty Mo & Tom Gorzelanny) and other cases where they just fall in love with potential (see Andy LaRoche). It should keep everyone on their toes right up to cutdown day.
* Will Joe Kerrigan's veteran counsel break the Bucco urge to nibble, nibble, nibble? Can he somehow convince these guys that going after batters and getting that first pitch over sounds like a plan?
Jeff Andrews was a pretty laissez faire kind of coach. We'll see what difference a more aggressive guy like Kerrigan, with an eye to detail and pre-game prep, will have on the staff.
Remember, some of these pitchers have had four coaches (Spin Williams, Jim Colbert, Jeff Andrews, and now Kerrigan) in five years. Who knows how many conflicting bits of pitching minutiae are floating around between their ears?
* This is a staff that pitches to contact; will the team bail them out or add gas to the fire? Only two teams struck out fewer batters, and only two teams had a worse defensive efficiency rating - 1/3 of all the balls put in play against the Bucs resulted in a safe baserunner. Throw in 657 walks, and the result is a bunch of guys circling the bases when the Pirates are in the field.
So the two keys to improving the pitching are pretty basic stuff - throw strikes and catch the dang ball. Both could be a challenge. If they're up to the task, the pitching could be OK. If not, same ol', same ol'.
* The final piece of the puzzle is the Gunner's famous "hidden vigorish." What are the odds of two pitchers - Maholm and Grabow - having career years while everyone else implodes, ends up on the DL, gets sent down, or in some cases, all three? Maybe those odds will reverse themselves this season.
After all, they say that the sun shines on every dog's butt once in awhile. Maybe 2009 will be the year our mutts catch a couple of rays.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Hot Stove Goes Cold
Ah, the life of a blogger. Bobby Abreu didn't play out for a stinkin' news cycle before he went and signed up with the Angels for a year at $5M guaranteed and another $3M worth of incentive carrots bobbing in front of his nose.
We can't even fantasize about Adam Dunn manning the middle of the lineup. He went and inked a 2 year deal for $20M with the Nats. The Nats!!! Oh, the humanity!
The inning eater they were looking for to anchor an underachieving staff? Well, scrub Braden Looper from the list. He's about to ply his trade for division rival Milwaukee after agreeing to a year at $4.75M and an option for 2010.
That pretty well throws a pail of ice water over the embers of the Pirate's Hot Stove season. They never did come up with that righty power bat or veteran arm to gobble up some innings.
Can you blame the Bucs? Sure, they didn't want to drop a dollar on someone to help keep the team afloat for the short term. You gotta pay to play.
And you can blame the market, too. There were LH corners galore, but not much from the right side. The pitching? Heck, we have more back-of-rotation guys than you can shake a stick at. Why overpay another one, especially a dinosaur?
Thank God for Ramon Vazquez, Eric Hinske, and, uh, Donnie Veal. And hey - Manny's still out there...
We can't even fantasize about Adam Dunn manning the middle of the lineup. He went and inked a 2 year deal for $20M with the Nats. The Nats!!! Oh, the humanity!
The inning eater they were looking for to anchor an underachieving staff? Well, scrub Braden Looper from the list. He's about to ply his trade for division rival Milwaukee after agreeing to a year at $4.75M and an option for 2010.
That pretty well throws a pail of ice water over the embers of the Pirate's Hot Stove season. They never did come up with that righty power bat or veteran arm to gobble up some innings.
Can you blame the Bucs? Sure, they didn't want to drop a dollar on someone to help keep the team afloat for the short term. You gotta pay to play.
And you can blame the market, too. There were LH corners galore, but not much from the right side. The pitching? Heck, we have more back-of-rotation guys than you can shake a stick at. Why overpay another one, especially a dinosaur?
Thank God for Ramon Vazquez, Eric Hinske, and, uh, Donnie Veal. And hey - Manny's still out there...
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
A Guy Can Dream, Can't He?
Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says the Pirates are one of the teams in on Bobby Abreu here, along with the Angels, Braves, Reds and Mets.
Now GW doesn't think the Bucs are front runners; heck, they may never get to the point where they even offer him a deal. Three of the other clubs are contenders, and Pittsburgh would have to top their bids to get him. And in fact, the Angels may be close to inking him.
But hey, what would it mean to the Bucco faithful, and the team, if the local rags sported the headline "Abreu signs with Pirates for 2 years, $11M" the week they headed into camp? (Two years because he'll be 35 in March, and Tabata should be up after that.)
First, it'd cause quite a shuffle in the Pirate outfield. Brandon Moss would have to fight Nyjer Morgan for left, Nate McLouth would stay in center, and Abreu would patrol right.
The suits would have more options concerning wunderkind Andrew McCutchen's inevitable call-up. Morgan would be thrown into the fire with Moss, and competition for jobs, never a bad thing, would finally become more than lip service.
Bat him third, and you can keep McLouth at the top of the order and you can bet Ryan Doumit will see more runners at cleanup than ever before. Abreu's lifetime OBP is .405, and starting from 1999, he's never taken fewer than 73 walks, at one point drawing 100+ for eight straight seasons.
The OBP is why GW likes him batting third, in case you're wondering, plus he's not that much of an HR hitter. Abreu has also stolen 20 sacks or more for 10 years straight. The down side is he's an automatic 100+ strikeout guy.
Another lefty? Abreu has had great splits throughout his career, batting .308 against righties and .280 against lefties, although he does have more power facing RHP. His split last year was .315/.287 with a line of .296/20/100.
Abreu hasn't hit lower than .277 since he played full-time in 1998, has driven in 100 runs or more seven of the past eight seasons (the last six in a row), and been an iron man, never playing in fewer than 151 games since becoming a regular.
As far as his fielding, well, we wouldn't put him in center, but he's league average or better in right, and still has that cannon. Abreu has never thrown out fewer then six runners since becoming a starting OF'er, and gunned down 10 guys last season.
And he'd be a salesman off the field, too. In Philly and New York both, he lent his name to many charitable and youth endeavors.
Now Abreu isn't Jason Bay or Xavier Nady at the plate; he doesn't have their power. But he'd sure help fill in the gap while the Pirates are scrambling to develop the players who will one day take their places in the lineup.
More importantly, signing a guy like Bobby Abreu would deliver a message to the fans and the team that the suits are playing for today, not a couple seasons down the road. And that would be be a powerful message for a skeptical City.
We know the chances of bringing him to Pittsburgh are as slim as Ed Creech's draft record, but a guy can dream, can't he...?
Now GW doesn't think the Bucs are front runners; heck, they may never get to the point where they even offer him a deal. Three of the other clubs are contenders, and Pittsburgh would have to top their bids to get him. And in fact, the Angels may be close to inking him.
But hey, what would it mean to the Bucco faithful, and the team, if the local rags sported the headline "Abreu signs with Pirates for 2 years, $11M" the week they headed into camp? (Two years because he'll be 35 in March, and Tabata should be up after that.)
First, it'd cause quite a shuffle in the Pirate outfield. Brandon Moss would have to fight Nyjer Morgan for left, Nate McLouth would stay in center, and Abreu would patrol right.
The suits would have more options concerning wunderkind Andrew McCutchen's inevitable call-up. Morgan would be thrown into the fire with Moss, and competition for jobs, never a bad thing, would finally become more than lip service.
Bat him third, and you can keep McLouth at the top of the order and you can bet Ryan Doumit will see more runners at cleanup than ever before. Abreu's lifetime OBP is .405, and starting from 1999, he's never taken fewer than 73 walks, at one point drawing 100+ for eight straight seasons.
The OBP is why GW likes him batting third, in case you're wondering, plus he's not that much of an HR hitter. Abreu has also stolen 20 sacks or more for 10 years straight. The down side is he's an automatic 100+ strikeout guy.
Another lefty? Abreu has had great splits throughout his career, batting .308 against righties and .280 against lefties, although he does have more power facing RHP. His split last year was .315/.287 with a line of .296/20/100.
Abreu hasn't hit lower than .277 since he played full-time in 1998, has driven in 100 runs or more seven of the past eight seasons (the last six in a row), and been an iron man, never playing in fewer than 151 games since becoming a regular.
As far as his fielding, well, we wouldn't put him in center, but he's league average or better in right, and still has that cannon. Abreu has never thrown out fewer then six runners since becoming a starting OF'er, and gunned down 10 guys last season.
And he'd be a salesman off the field, too. In Philly and New York both, he lent his name to many charitable and youth endeavors.
Now Abreu isn't Jason Bay or Xavier Nady at the plate; he doesn't have their power. But he'd sure help fill in the gap while the Pirates are scrambling to develop the players who will one day take their places in the lineup.
More importantly, signing a guy like Bobby Abreu would deliver a message to the fans and the team that the suits are playing for today, not a couple seasons down the road. And that would be be a powerful message for a skeptical City.
We know the chances of bringing him to Pittsburgh are as slim as Ed Creech's draft record, but a guy can dream, can't he...?
The Rotation of the Future
The Pirate rotation of the future is awfully young - they're not stacked up in Indy waiting for a call, but in Altoona and below - but there are a couple of guys that could pop up to take regular spots by 2011.
Brad Lincoln was selected in 2006 ahead of Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. Baseball America rated him as the Pirates' fourth overall organizational prospect in 2009 and predicts that he'll join the Pittsburgh rotation in 2010. But whether the 23-year old RHP will meet those expectations depends on how well he continues to rebound from 2007 TJ surgery.
He put up modest stats at Hickory and Lynchburg, but did work a total of 103-1/3 innings a year removed from the knife, didn't have any residual arm problems, and his control was there, even if he struggled to regain complete command of his pitches.
His WHIP was around 1.27, he walked fewer than 2 batters per nine innings, and K'd over six per game, all pretty good numbers for a recovery season. The youngster will have to cut down on long balls allowed, but that's a part of a control pitcher's learning curve.
Lincoln throws a low-to-mid 90s fastball, has a good curve, and his changeup is coming along. We expect to see him in Altoona, and his work there will dictate exactly how fast a track he's on for a PNC splashdown.
Rated right behind Lincoln was Dodger pickup Bryan Morris, part of the Jason Bay deal. He's another first round pick of 2006, and like Lincoln, had TJ surgery in 2007. Baseball America rated him the Pirates' fifth best organizational prospect of 2009, and foresees an arrival date in the show of 2011 or 2012.
In fact, BA says that Lincoln and Morris should be Pittsburgh's one-two punch in 2012. Talk about a pair of guys joined at the hip!
Morris threw 96 innings of A ball in his come-back season. He struck out 83 batters, but walked 43, so his stuff is OK, but a little scattered. Morris was also shut down pretty much by the Pirates after they got him, working only 14 innings at Hickory. They say it was just precautionary - he had bicep tenderness - but that may be a red flag to watch for down the road.
To add to the woes, the 22-year old (he'll be 23 in March) had toe surgery, totally unrelated to the other problems, so he'll have a late start to the season.
Still, the RHP has the tools. Morris' heater is gunned at 95, his curve is sharp, and he's working on a changeup. What he needs most is a season or two without any visits to the surgeon. He may start at Lynchburg, but we expect him to be with the Curve before too long.
Daniel Moskos can't be blamed for where he was picked. The question is whether or not he has first-round ability and a future role with the team.
He was a reliever at Clemson, but the new suits had him start at Lynchburg last year, and the results weren't pretty. Moskos is supposed to have a power arm, but his heater was pressed to touch 90, although his slider is considered top notch.
The 22-year old LHP will likely join Altoona's rotation this year. We don't think the starting experiment will last that long. As a two pitch pony, Moskos looks like a bullpen guy, maybe becoming the Bucs next LOOGY.
Tony Watson, 23-year old LHP, has put together two solid seasons in the Pirate A ranks. Drafted in the ninth round in 2007, Watson fit the Littlefield mold of a finesse pitcher, depending on a change-up for his out pitch. But unlike most Littlefield selections, he was actually somewhat touted and drafted lower than expected.
He's got excellent control, walking fewer than two batter per nine, and he gets about a half-dozen K's per game. Watson will get to step up to Altoona this year, and another good season will get him notice as a young gun on the rise. The Curve should have quite a rotation this year; that's about the level all the upside guys have reached.
Rafael De Los Santos is a young guy - he's 22 - that has some upside. He throws a low 90s fastball, slider and changeup. De Los Santos can make bats miss the ball, but his balls miss the plate pretty often, too.
His stats at Hickory were flat-out ugly, but he doubled his innings pitched and may have just hit the wall. The RHP will be floating around somewhere in the A level this year, and may yet blossom.
20-year old LHP Nelson Pereira will get a look at West Virginia this year after blazing through the GCL last year as a 19-year old after two excellent VSL campaigns.
The youngster from El Salvador has good off speed stuff, especially his changeup and curve, and his heater is good enough to set them up. He had a 4.6/1 K to BB ratio, so he can miss some bats and still find the dish.
Christopher Aure, 19-year old LHP drafted from high school out of North Pole, Alaska, could end up more than just the answer to a trivia quiz. He's a project, but his heater is in the upper 80 range and improving while he's shown some progress with his other pitches, notably the curve and changeup.
Aure did just OK in the GCL, and there's some debate whether he's better suited to start or come out of the pen, but he has some upside and may be a keeper.
Andres Santos, a guy the Bucs picked up in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft from the Yankees, has some upside. The Evil Empire gave him a $400K bonus to sign, and he was lights out in the Dominican League last year.
The 22-year old Dominican has a low 90s heater and a sweet change up, and he struck out a batter an inning in the DSL with decent control. Maybe Rene Gayo and Kyle Starks stole one for the team.
Another grab bag pick that may have a shot is Rafael Quintero, a 21-year old RHP plucked from the Indians in the minor's Rule 5 draft, who had some great numbers in the DSL.
The Venezuelan is a converted catcher with great control and over a strikeout per inning. Given his background, he's a darkhorse, but hey...nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Quinton Miller, 19-year old RHP, was drafted out of high school and has yet to pitch in pro ball. He throws a fastball that ranges from the high 80s to the low 90s, with a nice slider and average change.
The Bucs thought he was worth $900K in the 20th round - he had commited to playing at North Carolina - so they certainly feel he has some major upside.
Justin Wilson led Fresno State to the College World Series when his teammate Tanner Schleppers went down. The Bucs couldn't get Schleppers to sign on the dotted line, but after a long dance, reeled Wilson into the fold.
The 21-year old LHP features a 90 MPH fastball, curve and slider. Wilson signed too late to pitch last year, and he's ticketed to head to Class A West Virgina in 2009.
Guys that we profiled yesterday that were invited to camp and have chances to eventually dent the rotation in the near term are Daniel McCutchen, Jimmy Barthmaier, Ross Ohlendorf, and perhaps Donnie Veal.
It's not a very deep collection of arms, and for all the attention Littlefield paid to pitchers, it's an area Huntington and gang are going to have really work at to build up some depth and talent.
Brad Lincoln was selected in 2006 ahead of Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. Baseball America rated him as the Pirates' fourth overall organizational prospect in 2009 and predicts that he'll join the Pittsburgh rotation in 2010. But whether the 23-year old RHP will meet those expectations depends on how well he continues to rebound from 2007 TJ surgery.
He put up modest stats at Hickory and Lynchburg, but did work a total of 103-1/3 innings a year removed from the knife, didn't have any residual arm problems, and his control was there, even if he struggled to regain complete command of his pitches.
His WHIP was around 1.27, he walked fewer than 2 batters per nine innings, and K'd over six per game, all pretty good numbers for a recovery season. The youngster will have to cut down on long balls allowed, but that's a part of a control pitcher's learning curve.
Lincoln throws a low-to-mid 90s fastball, has a good curve, and his changeup is coming along. We expect to see him in Altoona, and his work there will dictate exactly how fast a track he's on for a PNC splashdown.
Rated right behind Lincoln was Dodger pickup Bryan Morris, part of the Jason Bay deal. He's another first round pick of 2006, and like Lincoln, had TJ surgery in 2007. Baseball America rated him the Pirates' fifth best organizational prospect of 2009, and foresees an arrival date in the show of 2011 or 2012.
In fact, BA says that Lincoln and Morris should be Pittsburgh's one-two punch in 2012. Talk about a pair of guys joined at the hip!
Morris threw 96 innings of A ball in his come-back season. He struck out 83 batters, but walked 43, so his stuff is OK, but a little scattered. Morris was also shut down pretty much by the Pirates after they got him, working only 14 innings at Hickory. They say it was just precautionary - he had bicep tenderness - but that may be a red flag to watch for down the road.
To add to the woes, the 22-year old (he'll be 23 in March) had toe surgery, totally unrelated to the other problems, so he'll have a late start to the season.
Still, the RHP has the tools. Morris' heater is gunned at 95, his curve is sharp, and he's working on a changeup. What he needs most is a season or two without any visits to the surgeon. He may start at Lynchburg, but we expect him to be with the Curve before too long.
Daniel Moskos can't be blamed for where he was picked. The question is whether or not he has first-round ability and a future role with the team.
He was a reliever at Clemson, but the new suits had him start at Lynchburg last year, and the results weren't pretty. Moskos is supposed to have a power arm, but his heater was pressed to touch 90, although his slider is considered top notch.
The 22-year old LHP will likely join Altoona's rotation this year. We don't think the starting experiment will last that long. As a two pitch pony, Moskos looks like a bullpen guy, maybe becoming the Bucs next LOOGY.
Tony Watson, 23-year old LHP, has put together two solid seasons in the Pirate A ranks. Drafted in the ninth round in 2007, Watson fit the Littlefield mold of a finesse pitcher, depending on a change-up for his out pitch. But unlike most Littlefield selections, he was actually somewhat touted and drafted lower than expected.
He's got excellent control, walking fewer than two batter per nine, and he gets about a half-dozen K's per game. Watson will get to step up to Altoona this year, and another good season will get him notice as a young gun on the rise. The Curve should have quite a rotation this year; that's about the level all the upside guys have reached.
Rafael De Los Santos is a young guy - he's 22 - that has some upside. He throws a low 90s fastball, slider and changeup. De Los Santos can make bats miss the ball, but his balls miss the plate pretty often, too.
His stats at Hickory were flat-out ugly, but he doubled his innings pitched and may have just hit the wall. The RHP will be floating around somewhere in the A level this year, and may yet blossom.
20-year old LHP Nelson Pereira will get a look at West Virginia this year after blazing through the GCL last year as a 19-year old after two excellent VSL campaigns.
The youngster from El Salvador has good off speed stuff, especially his changeup and curve, and his heater is good enough to set them up. He had a 4.6/1 K to BB ratio, so he can miss some bats and still find the dish.
Christopher Aure, 19-year old LHP drafted from high school out of North Pole, Alaska, could end up more than just the answer to a trivia quiz. He's a project, but his heater is in the upper 80 range and improving while he's shown some progress with his other pitches, notably the curve and changeup.
Aure did just OK in the GCL, and there's some debate whether he's better suited to start or come out of the pen, but he has some upside and may be a keeper.
Andres Santos, a guy the Bucs picked up in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft from the Yankees, has some upside. The Evil Empire gave him a $400K bonus to sign, and he was lights out in the Dominican League last year.
The 22-year old Dominican has a low 90s heater and a sweet change up, and he struck out a batter an inning in the DSL with decent control. Maybe Rene Gayo and Kyle Starks stole one for the team.
Another grab bag pick that may have a shot is Rafael Quintero, a 21-year old RHP plucked from the Indians in the minor's Rule 5 draft, who had some great numbers in the DSL.
The Venezuelan is a converted catcher with great control and over a strikeout per inning. Given his background, he's a darkhorse, but hey...nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Quinton Miller, 19-year old RHP, was drafted out of high school and has yet to pitch in pro ball. He throws a fastball that ranges from the high 80s to the low 90s, with a nice slider and average change.
The Bucs thought he was worth $900K in the 20th round - he had commited to playing at North Carolina - so they certainly feel he has some major upside.
Justin Wilson led Fresno State to the College World Series when his teammate Tanner Schleppers went down. The Bucs couldn't get Schleppers to sign on the dotted line, but after a long dance, reeled Wilson into the fold.
The 21-year old LHP features a 90 MPH fastball, curve and slider. Wilson signed too late to pitch last year, and he's ticketed to head to Class A West Virgina in 2009.
Guys that we profiled yesterday that were invited to camp and have chances to eventually dent the rotation in the near term are Daniel McCutchen, Jimmy Barthmaier, Ross Ohlendorf, and perhaps Donnie Veal.
It's not a very deep collection of arms, and for all the attention Littlefield paid to pitchers, it's an area Huntington and gang are going to have really work at to build up some depth and talent.
Monday, February 9, 2009
The 2009 Rotation
OK, it's simple enough this year. The pitching rotation is not set in stone like it was last year, nor will there be a cast of hundreds trying to win a spot. There are 10 guys gunning for five spots, so there should be plenty of innings to go around this spring for everyone to get a fair look. The competition:
Paul Maholm is da man. 2008 was his breakout season with a 9-9/3.71 line. Maholm parlayed that into a nice contract, and is ready to take a leadership role on the staff. Maholm is also a workhorse; he's thrown 560 innings and picked up 27 wins in his three MLB seasons.
He throws four pitches - a 90 MPH fastball, curve, slider and change. His control is good, if not exceptional, and his strikeout rate is about 6 batters per nine innings. Maholm is a ground ball pitcher, so infield defense is a key to his game.
The 26-year old LHP is the epitome of a guy that does a lot of little things right. Maholm doesn't fold under pressure, holds runners, doesn't usually walk himself into trouble, and is in professional shape. Having said that, he doesn't have top-of-the order stuff. But Maholm is a solid MLB pitcher, and should be a steady middle of the rotation guy for the foreseeable future, maybe growing into a #2 pitcher.
Ian Snell has the best stuff on the team, with a mid 90s heater and a sharp slider. So what's the problem? Well, he certainly threw too many pitches in too few innings, spent some time on the DL, and his control was the worst it had ever been, although he still could punch out a batter when he had to.
Some say that he has to mature some; he has too many games that he's cruising when the least bit of adversity completely derails him. There were whispers that his conditioning wasn't up to snuff last season, either, although he has a reputation as being a guy that prides himself on his shape. Whatever the problem, a 7-12/5.42 line was the result.
One thing is certain - Snell is the closest to having a top-of-the-order arm on the staff, and getting him back in operating order is job #1 for Joe Kerrigan. He's carrying around a pretty pricey long term deal, and it's hoped that Kerrigan's detailed game plans will help focus the 28-year old RHP. And while he's at it, we hope he teaches him to throw an off-speed pitch to keep the lefty hitters honest - they hit .314 off Snell last year, with a .914 OPS.
The suits say that Maholm is the only lock for the rotation; they're blowing smoke. There's no way Snell doesn't break camp with the team short of injury.
Tom Gorzelanny was the suits' favorite whipping boy last year. He was out of shape, his work habits were questioned, and he suffered the ignominy of being sent back to the bushes, topped off by a stint on the DL when he was finally recalled. To boot, he walked 70 batters and only K'ed 67. Ouch!
But possible redemption is around the corner. They worked on the 26-year old LHP's mechanics - and head - at Indy, and he came into mini-camp in better shape. He has a decent low 90s heater, but his bread-and-butter pitch is the changeup.
The question is whether Jim Tracy's blatant overuse of Gorzo in 2007, when he was 14-10/3.88, was the root of his pitching problems in 2008, when he was 6-9/5.72. For the Pirates sake, let's hope so.
Zach Duke is the textbook example of a back end rotation guy, and that's not said as an insult. He's a pitcher with an upper 80s fastball that lives off his curve, strikes out only about four batters per nine innings, and gets opponents to hit the ball on the ground. Like Maholm, Duke depends on his infield to have success.
Duke was 5-14/4.82 last year, but didn't pitch as badly as the stat line. The 25-year old LHP (he'll be 26 in April) had a terrible July, but otherwise just ran into some hard luck. He looked a lot more like the 2006 version (no, we don't ever expect to see the 2005 Duke again, when as a rookie he was 8-2/1.81).
He does the professional things well - he only gives up a couple of walks per nine innings, holds runners, and gets ground balls - but his inability to strike out hitters and dependence on his fielders will keep him at the 4-5 spot on the staff.
Jeff Karstens, a late addition to the Nady/Marte deal with the Yankees, was immediately plugged into the rotation when he joined the Bucs. The 26-year old RHP flirted with a no-no against the Cubs, but settled in to finish with a 2-6/4.03 line for the Pirates.
He's a soft thrower with an upper 80s fastball, curve, slider, and changeup. Karstens can't get the bat to miss many balls (his control is excellent, but he only struck out 23 batters in 51-1/3 innings), and depends on command and location to get by. He also has an elbow problem that popped up in mini-camp that's supposed to set him back a week or two in Bradenton; we'll find out how severe it is soon enough.
Karstens looks like a back of the rotation/long relief pitcher for the Pirates.
Ross Ohlendorf was a guy the Bucs were after, and they finally pried him loose from the Yankees. The 26-year old RHP, touted to be a flamethrower, threw just in the low 90s with a 0-3/6.35 line for the Pirates, and had 13 K's and 12 BBs in 22-2/3 innings, hardly dominating stuff.
He admitted to being worn down at the end of the season, and that's the nub of the problem. The Big O threw 131-2/3 innings in 42 outings, 25 from the pen and 17 as a starter, not a particularly overwhelming workload. The Pirates have to decide if his future is as a starter and stretch him out, or, as the Yankees thought before dealing him, in the bullpen. Either way, he's likely to end up in Indy, though he does have a shot at being the long man out of the pen.
Phil Dumatrait is this year's mystery man. Is he the dude that lit the league up in April and May replacing the infamous Matty Mo, or the bum that got hammered in his last three outings? We may not find the answer this year.
The 27-year old has a couple of questions hanging over him. First, how badly was his performance affected by a bum wing, which landed him on the DL and eventually led to surgery? Second, can they stretch him out as a starter? He only has 17 MLB starts, and he wore down as the game went on.
If he was healthy - which he isn't - he'd probably be a lock to make the rotation with his low 90s heater setting up his offspeed stuff, although the LHP had some control issues, walking nearly five batters per nine innings. Dumatrait is out of options and hasn't been throwing, so he'll most likely start the year on the DL and pop back onto the 25-man when he's recovered.
Still, we can't help but feel 2008 and possibly 2009 will be wasted years for Dumatrait, and he needs to get healthy and notch some innings on his belt.
Daniel McCutchen throws a two and four seam heater, both in the low 90s, with an excellent curve and a changeup. He's still waiting to get a call to the show, and will probably have to wait a little longer, although he does have an outside shot at making the club.
McCutchen goes after batters, and has pretty good control. As with most guys that are around the plate, he's susceptible to the long ball, giving up 26 in 171-1/3 combined innings last year. The 26-year old RHP had a combined 7-9/4.01 ERA in AAA last year, and unless someone falls flat on their face, is likely to end up at Indy.
Jimmy Barthmaier, 25-year old RHP, was a top five prospect for the Astros in 2005-06, but when he was promoted to AA in 2007, he got bombed. The Pirates claimed him after the season, and thought enough of him to keep him on the 40-man after a combined 5-5/3.85 line at Altoona and Indy last year.
Barthmaier throws in the low 90s, and has a decent curve and changeup. He struck out eight and walked three per nine innings. Barthmaier needs to get stronger, though - he averaged just under 5 innings pitched per start, and he'll be ticketed for Indy to begin the season. But his career is back on track.
Virgil Vasquez, a 26-year old RHP, is here just to provide some depth at Indy. He's never pitched in the majors, and is a control artist with a subpar upper 80s heater and the usual array of curve-slider-changeup. He was waived by three teams during the 2008-09 off season, with Pittsburgh being the only club that had room on its 40-man for him.
So how does the rotation set up? It looks to GW like Maholm-Snell-Gorzo-Karstens-Duke will be the starting five. Dumatrait will be on the DL, Vasquez and Barthmaier are heading to Indy, with Ohlendorf and McCutchen joining them, unless Karstens' elbow becomes an issue; then those two will be fighting for the fifth spot.
Of course, there will be a lot of twists and turns in the Pirate pitching soap opera, so stay tuned. There's still not enough competition, depth, or quality, and that will make for some interesting coaching - and management - decisions.
And remember that it's not a staff that can get by on pure stuff and power; it'll depend mightily on team defense; as they say in the lingo, it's a group that pitches to contact. For the rotation to improve, the glovework has to hold up its end of the bargain in 2009, no matter what miracles Kerrigan and maturity perform.
Perry Hill may just end up being the key coach for the pitching staff this season.
Paul Maholm is da man. 2008 was his breakout season with a 9-9/3.71 line. Maholm parlayed that into a nice contract, and is ready to take a leadership role on the staff. Maholm is also a workhorse; he's thrown 560 innings and picked up 27 wins in his three MLB seasons.
He throws four pitches - a 90 MPH fastball, curve, slider and change. His control is good, if not exceptional, and his strikeout rate is about 6 batters per nine innings. Maholm is a ground ball pitcher, so infield defense is a key to his game.
The 26-year old LHP is the epitome of a guy that does a lot of little things right. Maholm doesn't fold under pressure, holds runners, doesn't usually walk himself into trouble, and is in professional shape. Having said that, he doesn't have top-of-the order stuff. But Maholm is a solid MLB pitcher, and should be a steady middle of the rotation guy for the foreseeable future, maybe growing into a #2 pitcher.
Ian Snell has the best stuff on the team, with a mid 90s heater and a sharp slider. So what's the problem? Well, he certainly threw too many pitches in too few innings, spent some time on the DL, and his control was the worst it had ever been, although he still could punch out a batter when he had to.
Some say that he has to mature some; he has too many games that he's cruising when the least bit of adversity completely derails him. There were whispers that his conditioning wasn't up to snuff last season, either, although he has a reputation as being a guy that prides himself on his shape. Whatever the problem, a 7-12/5.42 line was the result.
One thing is certain - Snell is the closest to having a top-of-the-order arm on the staff, and getting him back in operating order is job #1 for Joe Kerrigan. He's carrying around a pretty pricey long term deal, and it's hoped that Kerrigan's detailed game plans will help focus the 28-year old RHP. And while he's at it, we hope he teaches him to throw an off-speed pitch to keep the lefty hitters honest - they hit .314 off Snell last year, with a .914 OPS.
The suits say that Maholm is the only lock for the rotation; they're blowing smoke. There's no way Snell doesn't break camp with the team short of injury.
Tom Gorzelanny was the suits' favorite whipping boy last year. He was out of shape, his work habits were questioned, and he suffered the ignominy of being sent back to the bushes, topped off by a stint on the DL when he was finally recalled. To boot, he walked 70 batters and only K'ed 67. Ouch!
But possible redemption is around the corner. They worked on the 26-year old LHP's mechanics - and head - at Indy, and he came into mini-camp in better shape. He has a decent low 90s heater, but his bread-and-butter pitch is the changeup.
The question is whether Jim Tracy's blatant overuse of Gorzo in 2007, when he was 14-10/3.88, was the root of his pitching problems in 2008, when he was 6-9/5.72. For the Pirates sake, let's hope so.
Zach Duke is the textbook example of a back end rotation guy, and that's not said as an insult. He's a pitcher with an upper 80s fastball that lives off his curve, strikes out only about four batters per nine innings, and gets opponents to hit the ball on the ground. Like Maholm, Duke depends on his infield to have success.
Duke was 5-14/4.82 last year, but didn't pitch as badly as the stat line. The 25-year old LHP (he'll be 26 in April) had a terrible July, but otherwise just ran into some hard luck. He looked a lot more like the 2006 version (no, we don't ever expect to see the 2005 Duke again, when as a rookie he was 8-2/1.81).
He does the professional things well - he only gives up a couple of walks per nine innings, holds runners, and gets ground balls - but his inability to strike out hitters and dependence on his fielders will keep him at the 4-5 spot on the staff.
Jeff Karstens, a late addition to the Nady/Marte deal with the Yankees, was immediately plugged into the rotation when he joined the Bucs. The 26-year old RHP flirted with a no-no against the Cubs, but settled in to finish with a 2-6/4.03 line for the Pirates.
He's a soft thrower with an upper 80s fastball, curve, slider, and changeup. Karstens can't get the bat to miss many balls (his control is excellent, but he only struck out 23 batters in 51-1/3 innings), and depends on command and location to get by. He also has an elbow problem that popped up in mini-camp that's supposed to set him back a week or two in Bradenton; we'll find out how severe it is soon enough.
Karstens looks like a back of the rotation/long relief pitcher for the Pirates.
Ross Ohlendorf was a guy the Bucs were after, and they finally pried him loose from the Yankees. The 26-year old RHP, touted to be a flamethrower, threw just in the low 90s with a 0-3/6.35 line for the Pirates, and had 13 K's and 12 BBs in 22-2/3 innings, hardly dominating stuff.
He admitted to being worn down at the end of the season, and that's the nub of the problem. The Big O threw 131-2/3 innings in 42 outings, 25 from the pen and 17 as a starter, not a particularly overwhelming workload. The Pirates have to decide if his future is as a starter and stretch him out, or, as the Yankees thought before dealing him, in the bullpen. Either way, he's likely to end up in Indy, though he does have a shot at being the long man out of the pen.
Phil Dumatrait is this year's mystery man. Is he the dude that lit the league up in April and May replacing the infamous Matty Mo, or the bum that got hammered in his last three outings? We may not find the answer this year.
The 27-year old has a couple of questions hanging over him. First, how badly was his performance affected by a bum wing, which landed him on the DL and eventually led to surgery? Second, can they stretch him out as a starter? He only has 17 MLB starts, and he wore down as the game went on.
If he was healthy - which he isn't - he'd probably be a lock to make the rotation with his low 90s heater setting up his offspeed stuff, although the LHP had some control issues, walking nearly five batters per nine innings. Dumatrait is out of options and hasn't been throwing, so he'll most likely start the year on the DL and pop back onto the 25-man when he's recovered.
Still, we can't help but feel 2008 and possibly 2009 will be wasted years for Dumatrait, and he needs to get healthy and notch some innings on his belt.
Daniel McCutchen throws a two and four seam heater, both in the low 90s, with an excellent curve and a changeup. He's still waiting to get a call to the show, and will probably have to wait a little longer, although he does have an outside shot at making the club.
McCutchen goes after batters, and has pretty good control. As with most guys that are around the plate, he's susceptible to the long ball, giving up 26 in 171-1/3 combined innings last year. The 26-year old RHP had a combined 7-9/4.01 ERA in AAA last year, and unless someone falls flat on their face, is likely to end up at Indy.
Jimmy Barthmaier, 25-year old RHP, was a top five prospect for the Astros in 2005-06, but when he was promoted to AA in 2007, he got bombed. The Pirates claimed him after the season, and thought enough of him to keep him on the 40-man after a combined 5-5/3.85 line at Altoona and Indy last year.
Barthmaier throws in the low 90s, and has a decent curve and changeup. He struck out eight and walked three per nine innings. Barthmaier needs to get stronger, though - he averaged just under 5 innings pitched per start, and he'll be ticketed for Indy to begin the season. But his career is back on track.
Virgil Vasquez, a 26-year old RHP, is here just to provide some depth at Indy. He's never pitched in the majors, and is a control artist with a subpar upper 80s heater and the usual array of curve-slider-changeup. He was waived by three teams during the 2008-09 off season, with Pittsburgh being the only club that had room on its 40-man for him.
So how does the rotation set up? It looks to GW like Maholm-Snell-Gorzo-Karstens-Duke will be the starting five. Dumatrait will be on the DL, Vasquez and Barthmaier are heading to Indy, with Ohlendorf and McCutchen joining them, unless Karstens' elbow becomes an issue; then those two will be fighting for the fifth spot.
Of course, there will be a lot of twists and turns in the Pirate pitching soap opera, so stay tuned. There's still not enough competition, depth, or quality, and that will make for some interesting coaching - and management - decisions.
And remember that it's not a staff that can get by on pure stuff and power; it'll depend mightily on team defense; as they say in the lingo, it's a group that pitches to contact. For the rotation to improve, the glovework has to hold up its end of the bargain in 2009, no matter what miracles Kerrigan and maturity perform.
Perry Hill may just end up being the key coach for the pitching staff this season.
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