Thursday, October 8, 2009

Coonelly's Wrap-Up

Frank Coonelly and his end-of-the-season take on the Buccos, from his monthly chat:
"We have made tremendous progress in terms of adding talent to the organization over the past two years and are now in a far stronger position than we have been in years.

The 2009 season was one in which we continued to acquire talent and significantly upgrade the talent level across the entire organization. We are very pleased with the talent we were able to add through the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, international signings and through trades at the Major League level. 2009 was also a year in which there were tremendous development strides taken by individual players both at the Major League and Minor League levels.

Nevertheless, our objective is to win in Pittsburgh and we fell far short of our expectations in this regard.

We will aggressively look to supplement this core through free agency and the trade market as we continue to develop players in our system. The good news for Pirates fans is that the days of wholesale changes are over and, with a far superior talent base, the Pirates organization is poised to return to its rightful place in the National League."
Just in case you were wonderin' what 2009 was all about.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Pellas On The Pirates: Offseason Moves, Volume One

Interesting that others in the blogosphere have also --- independently? --- suggested that it would be a good idea to trade Zach Duke to Milwaukee for J. J. Hardy, a notion that we kicked around here on The Green Weenie a few days ago.

All of which got me thinking, in my best If-Only-I-Were-Neil-Huntington mode, about what should be done this offseason so 2010 will not resemble the train wreck that was 2009.

I would be on the horn to Milwaukee immediately re: Hardy. Even if his bat never comes all the way back to what he showed in 07-08, he is an athletic player who has plus power for his position and a plus glove.

I'd deal Duke for him in a heartbeat and have an open competition in spring training for Duke's spot among Daniel McCutchen, Brad Lincoln and Kevin Hart and see what happens. I'd hope Lincoln would go north with the team as he really has nothing left to prove in the minors, and Hart, I suspect, is better suited to bullpen duty. This would mean all 3 pitchers would make the team, with McCutchen and Lincoln at the back of the rotation.

While this would leave us a bit thinner in terms of overall pitching depth, we still have Jeff Karstens and, possibly, Phil Dumatrait as long men and/or fill-ins in the event of injury or ineffectiveness, and presumably some of our young guns will soon be within shouting distance of Pittsburgh as they come up through the minors. We could also, of course, either make a big splash with a veteran starting pitcher free agent, or we could go trolling through the junk bin (where we got Dumatrait).

But the main point is that we have some pitching depth from which to deal---for once. Hardy would be an ideal buy low player whose star has dimmed but who is unquestionably young enough to bounce back. Plus, he'd be ultra-motivated against Milwaukee, and we can't punch them in the nose enough times to suit me.

I'm not sure about Andy LaRoche, whether at third base or at second. Certainly his so-so bat would play better at 2B than it did at 3B this season, but it's so hard to say with him because his minor league career was uniformly excellent and with his very good defense I would be willing to try him again at third next year, at least until Alvarez comes up. On the other hand, Alvarez may well be a first baseman, in which case maybe we ought to move Andy to second and take an extended look at Neil Walker at third.

Yes to Rick Ankiel as an offseason signing, except of course for the unfortunate fact that he has satan as his agent. Xavier Nady---another name being suggested in some circles---does, too, by the way. I wouldn't mind either of those guys because Ankiel is way better than Brandon Moss if he can return to his 07-08 form (he's also better defensively) and Nady, even with his elbow, is way better than Steve Pearce, who shouldn't be anywhere close to our roster next season or any season after that. But there again, we have Garrett Jones to consider, and we have Alvarez to consider.

FWIW, I'd move LaRoche to second at least temporarily so we could evalute both him and Walker until the All Star break. Jones would be my 1B with Ankiel in right until Alvarez comes up. (I don't believe in Clement at Indy.) If Alvarez is in shape, he becomes the 3B with Walker moving to a Jose Bautista 3B-OF utility role.

If not, he becomes the 1B and Ankiel would then switch off with Jones and Milledge and even McCutchen when he needs the occasional day off. Moss would probably be gone by this point, if in fact he even made the team at all out of spring training. It's hard to see where he would fit if we sign Ankiel or a similar player in the offseason.

Anyway, Ankiel would allow us to keep Tabata at Triple-A until after the All Star break, at which point we could bring him up and work him in gradually (again, no role for Moss, unless we want to save the bucks and not bother to sign Ankiel in the first place; either way Tabata is the future at one corner spot).

Evan Meek would be my closer in the 'pen, and I'd bring Mike Gonzalez back as fast as possible to be our main lefthander. Etc and so forth.

This is of course very preliminary and off the cuff. But our lineup would look like this:

CF Andrew McCutchen
2B Andy LaRoche
1B Garrett Jones
RF Rick Ankiel
C Ryan Doumit
SS J. J. Hardy
LF Lastings Milledge
3B Neil Walker

Rotation: Maholm, Morton, Ohlendorf, D. McCutchen, B. Lincoln (or a veteran placeholder until Lincoln is called up)

Long Relief / Spot Starters: Jeff Karstens, Phil Dumatrait (though either or both could be replaced this offseason and both have had some health issues)

Short Relievers: Jesse Chavez, Mike Gonzalez, Matt Capps, Joel Hanrahan, Kevin Hart; Dumatrait would be the second lefty here if healthy, though Hart might be the man if we decide to keep just one leftie, and either Hart or Dumatrait or both could end up back at Indy.

This hurts me personally because I've always liked Dumatrait and the guy can unquestionably pitch on the rare occasions when he is physically sound. It's just that he's never physically sound. Well, almost never. Anyway, someone here is probably going to get bumped, because the Pirates won't go with a 12 man pitching staff. But because I'm not yet sure how this will shake out, I'm listing 27 players here instead of 25.

Closer: Evan Meek

Bench: Delwyn Young, Jason Jaramillo, Brandon Moss (until Tabata is ready), some combination of 3 other players, likely 1 internal and 2 veterans signed in the offseason. Jack Wilson just might be back. Or the team could choose to keep Cedeno around, only this time as a backup rather than as the starter (something I would much prefer, and which is a no-brainer if we get Hardy). And so on.

That's not a great team, but it's not bad on paper, and I think we'd have at least a fighting chance at ending our run of losing seasons. And of course, we're now getting to the point at which our internal reinforcements coming up from the minors should---emphasis on "should"---start telling by the middle of next season. I'd gladly take my chances with this roster for a year or two while we wait for the kids to get here.

(GW regular Will Pellas puts on his GM cap, and presto - the 2010 Buccos! His piece is certainly a strong starting point for the winter's hot stove league. Ya listening, Neal?)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The Recaps

Just so GW doesn't bore you with his worldview of Bucco baseball, here's a few thoughts tossed out by the beat people and blogosphere:

-- Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette has ten ways to boost the Bucs. It starts with focus on the big league team and ends with spend!

-- Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review has the positional breakdown of the Bucs heading into 2010.

-- Jen Langosch of MLB.com has the recap of a very long season, what went right, and what went wrong.

She also has 2010 contract issues and a position-by-position breakdown of the team.

-- John Perrotto of the Pirates Report hands out his 2009 player awards.

-- Charlie at The Bucs' Dugout has rolled out his current Top Thirty prospects list.

-- Jim Rosati at The North Side Notch hands out his player awards.

-- Matt Bandi of The Pittsburgh Lumber Company gives his take on DK's ten steps to improvement.

-- Brian of Raise The Jolly Roger has a list of things we know now that we didn't know in March.

-- Pat Lackey of WHYGAVS has his shopping list ready.

Monday, October 5, 2009

The Next Move...

I am just a poor boy, though my story is seldom told
I have squandered my resistance,
For a pocketful of mumbles, such are promises
All lies and jest
Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

Now the years are rolling by me, they are rockin' even me
I am older than I once was, and younger than I'll be
That's not unusual, no it isn't strange
After changes upon changes, we are more or less the same
After changes we are more or less the same.
(Paul Simon - "The Boxer")

Sometimes, GW thinks that song was written for Pirate fans of the past seventeen years. No matter who was the boss, after changes upon changes, we are more or less the same. How can Pittsburgh's suits flip that tune?

Everyone could see the 2009 train wreck coming; you can't entirely demolish a team and expect to have it compete when you turn your proven players over for a grab bag full of shiny baubles. Did it have to done that way? Maybe; it's surely open to debate.

Here's what they should do now if they want to restore trust with both the fans and the players, neither of which have reason to believe much that the suits say. Make 2010 the year of the Pirates. Focus on Pittsburgh. No excuses, no hedging.

Yes, the pitching was terrible when they got here. Yes, the minor league system had less talent than your average T-Ball team. We understand they wanted to flood the organization with players, especially at the upper levels, and some arms.

OK, mission accomplished. Four guys are left from the 2008 25-man roster; the payroll is down to $28M. A draft protocol and budget have been established, ditto a framework for evaluating international and Latino talent (although as the Sano situation showed, there's still a learning curve to be mastered).

If the suits want to continue their addiction to the waiver wire and minor-league free agents, well, knock yourselves out. Maybe there's another Garrett Jones or Steve Jackson out there. But prove to us that you're not in love with the art of the deal; build Pittsburgh a major league team.

After all, picking up a Rule 5 player in 2009 to send to Indy in 2010 or claiming a guy off waivers because you're "intrigued by players with options remaining" gets old.

Shortly some of the young hot shots will be bubbling up to the show. Pedro's due this year if he doesn't fall on his puss at Indy, and Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln are at least on the horizon. The pieces are slowly beginning to fall in place.

Start filling in the holes. Is Ronny Cedeno the answer at short? We're certainly unconvinced, and there is some young talent out there that could be picked up in trade. It may be beyond the Pirates' ability to assemble an attractive package, but take a look, please.

The team is dying for some middle of the order presence. Quit telling us about doubles and gap power; bring in a big bopper that has a record of bringing home some runs.

And what genius decided that a bullpen without lefties was balanced? Fix that, and give JR half a chance. And what's this we read about the suits not even looking at another starter? We think a top-end guy is worth a flyer, someone like Ben Sheets who is looking to reestablish himself.

Does a rotation of Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Ben Sheets, Paul Maholm, and Charlie Morton (or whomever; may the best man win) sound a little stronger than what we're throwing out now?

The Pirates are in the situation now where they can expect a player or two to join the big club every year from the farm. It's time to quit worrying about Indianapolis' roster and worry about Pittsburgh.

The payroll has been cut in nearly half; don't let it burn a hole in your pocket, Mr. Nutting. Even Scrooge had his epiphany; aren't the ghosts of Pirates past. present, and future enough?

Dance to a different drummer, and get some players for Pittsburgh.

Free Agents

OK, there's some groundswell for the Bucs to fill a hole or three by using the money that's not being spent on payroll to find a free agent. A middle infielder or a guy with some pop would be a nice addition, no?

Before we take a look at the market, though, the Pirates have one winter conundrum, which is identifying what area they need to shore up without clogging the pipeline. And that depends mightily on one Mr. Pedro Alvarez, who the Pirates expect to be with the team next summer.

Is Pedro going to get with the program and report lean and mean to camp, or is he destined to be Pop's clone? If he's in third base shape, Andy LaRoche stands a good shot at dueling Delwyn Young for second base, and it may be that they will provide an internal answer to that position.

Ah, but if he eats his way to first base, then the Bucco options are a little more limited. That keeps Garrett Jones in the outfield, and probably takes Pittsburgh out of the corner outfield/first base market, the likeliest source of some sorely needed muscle.

Ignoring the minor-league meat market, which the suits are sure to trawl, here's some potential FAs that may be a match for Pittsburgh:

Ricky Ankiel, 30, OF (.231/11/38, 403 AB) Lousy year in 2009, but in 2008 he hit .264/25/71 with 463 AB. If the price is right, he could challenge for a spot, and his defensive skills are a good match for PNC.

Xavier Nady, 31 (1B-OF) Hey, his free agent year went south in a hurry with his season-ending injury. But he could, if recovered, play first and right and pop 15-20 over the fence. Then again, he is a Scott Boras client...

Nick Johnson, 31, 1B (.292/8/61) Johnson's power has dropped considerably since he broke his leg in 2007, but he did have a .472 OBP, and his patience at the plate might rub off on the baby Buccos.

As far as that LOOGY goes, the best are John Grabow, Will Ohman, and Alan Embry. Grabow will sit down with the Cubs after the season, and Ohman and Embry have club options, so none may make it to market. Joe Beimel is also avaiable.

We think they'll stay in the organization for the starting five, and Neal Huntington has suggested he likes the rotation as is, at least enough to keep it intact in 2010.

Ben Sheets and Joel Piniero are seeking deals if they decide to go outside the system for an arm. We mention that pair because what they need is a top three pitcher; there are already in-house candidates aplenty for the bottom end.

We think shortstop is a position where the Bucs could upgrade, but that would be through the trade market, not free agency. Khalil Greene is the only guy out there, and his last two years have been a nightmare at the dish.

J.J. Hardy is available from the Brew Crew, the D-backs' Stephen Drew's name has popped up, and Reid Brignac, the Tampa Bay Rays prospect in AAA Durham, who is pretty effectively blocked by Jason Bartlett and Tim Beckham, could be on the block.

None will come cheaply, and the Pirates may not have the minor league manpower to put together a package for them. Still, worth kickin' the tires.

There's not a lot out there for mid-level pick-ups; it's not a very strong FA class overall. It seems to us that there's a very limited set of players with the skill set, age, and contract value that the suits would pursue for other than a bench role.

If Neal Huntington does bag one or two, it'll be a good off-season for the team; but we think he'll continue to dumpster dive until the minor-league system is stocked deeply enough to deal. So if you were counting on some of that unspent payroll bringing Matt Holliday into town, don't hold your breath.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Pack Up the Bats

Hey, even for the Pirates, this was a frustrating way to end the season. They pounded out ten knocks - nine were singles, natch - drew four walks, and still managed to get shut out by the Reds, 6-0.

The Pirates hitters went an amazing 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position; their need for a RBI guy is old news, but geez...0-for-13? That's what happens when you hit into a pair of DPs, have a runner thrown out at home, get a guy picked off of second, and whiff seven times.

Two of their hottest bats, Lastings Milledge and Andy LaRoche, came a cropper today, leaving eleven runners on base between them.

Jeff Karstens, working on short rest, only got into the third and left behind 2-0. Still, the committee approach did OK except for Donnie Veal, who was lit up for a four-spot in the fifth frame.

So the Bucs limp into the off season, finishing 2009 with a 62-99 slate.

-- Paul Maholm finally admitted that his scarred left knee was injured during his first start and bothered him during through June. He was seen with a brace on it occasionally, but still stuck to his story during the season.

He said that it affected his mechanics as he tried to find a comfortable way to pitch, and that his late season resurgence was due to diminished pain and a return to proper mechanics, getting the sink back in his ball.

-- Hey, at least the Pirates learned to catch the ball this year. The Pirates had 101 error-free games this year; the previous best was 99 games in 2007. The Pirates also have made the fewest errors (73) in MLB this season.

-- Bob Nutting will get to dig into his pocket again for June's player draft. The Pirates clinched the second spot, between Washington and Baltimore, after today's loss.

-- Matt Foreman of Baseball America on Pirate prospect OF'er Starling Marte of West Virginia:
"Marte is a plus-plus runner with a very good arm. Defensively, he's a solid player, but one manager had this to say about his defense — 'He makes some plays where you say 'Wow,' but then you look and see that he's got 800 errors, so you back off.' The numbers say he only had seven errors. At this point, Marte needs a little more mileage. He's still learning pitch recognition and plate discipline, though he did put up solid numbers."
He added that he thought SS Chase D'Arnaud was on the bubble of being included in the Top Twenty Sally League prospects.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Bumbling Bucs Back

OK, now that the trot to the finish is about over and the Pirates are not going to lose 100 games, it's back to normal.

The pitching, which had been so sharp, went astray. Zach Duke was all over the place, giving up five runs on six hits with five walks and two Ks. it took him five innings and 86 pitches to get there, and the Buc bullpen wasn't much sharper.

The Bucs pulled within a run at 5-4 in the top of the sixth on Delwyn Young's three-run dinger, but Chris Bootcheck gave back two of them in the Reds' half of the frame, and that pretty much set the stage for the fat lady.

The Pirates had six hits all night; Young had three of them.

Tomorrow is the last hurrah; Jeff Karstens and a cast of thousands will line up to pitch the finale. Then comes the hard part, separating the wheat from the chaff.

-- Ryan Doumit may be done for the year. He took a shot off the mask Friday night, and has shown some slight concussion-like symptoms. GW would like to see the Bucs take a little better care of him next year and limit his appearances to maybe 125-130 games behind the plate. Doumit is an accident waiting to happen.

-- Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review reports that Brandon Moss is at a crossroads in his career.
"It appears that Brandon Moss will head into next year as the incumbent right fielder. But during Moss’ exit meeting with manager John Russell and GM Neal Huntington, it was made clear that he still has a lot of work to do to establish job security.

'He realizes the opportunity he got this year, and also realizes he really didn’t take advantage of it,' manager John Russell said.

With Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez on their ways up and Andrew McCutchen and Lastings Milledge playing well, there might not be room for Moss in the Pirates’ outfield. His future probably includes a pinch-hitter role."
-- The Pirates are supposedly still in discussions with Perry Hill. If they sweet talk him into returning, all they'll be looking for coaching-wise in the off season will be Joe Kerrigan's new Boy Robin.

-- Let's see. Jose Ascanio just had labrum surgery, making his future a coin-toss. Kevin Hart was 1-8 with a 6.92 ERA in the Steel City. Utility man Josh Harrison is in Class A.

John Grabow had a 3.24 ERA in 30 outings with the Cubs. Tom Gorzelanny was 4-2 with a 5.63 ERA as a Windy City starter.

We're not sure that we'd have pulled the trigger on that deal, although as always, we'll hedge our bet by saying we'll find out in 2011. But those early returns...

Friday, October 2, 2009

McCutchen Wraps Up Reds

OK, the Pirates tried leading off the first with back-to-back walks, no luck. A lead-off single in the second, less luck. A walk and double to start the third inning - bingo, two run single. Andy LaRoche got thrown out at second with no outs, but hey, he did his job. About time someone did!

It was even a better start to the fourth; Lastings Milledge, who lost a homer to the rain in Chicago yesterday, took a two-strike curveball yard.

It stayed that way until the seventh, when Daniel McCutchen made his only mistake. He hung a change-up to Wladimir Balentien (try typing that!) and he drilled it far into the night.

That was it for McCutchen, who had another strong outing, going 6-1/3 innings, giving up a run on four hits, with two walks and five strikeouts. McC's pitch count was at 96 (64 were strikes), so it was his last inning no matter what.

Jesse Chavez got the last two outs. LaRoche added a little excitement with a two-out single, but was caught again trying to stretch it. At least there were two away this time, the textbook opportunity to push the envelope and try to get into scoring position.

Joel Hanrahan pitched a clean eighth frame. Matt Capps came on to close the game, and brought home the bacon for his 27th save. And hey, it was Daniel McCutchen's first MLB win, too.

As an added bonus, the victory guarantees that Pittsburgh will not suffer the ignominy of 100 losses. JR may be an eccentric strategist, but give him his due - he kept his team playing when it would have been easy to lose them.

The Pirates recent streak is a nice finish to a dismal season, keyed by some strong pitching. But the Bucs again demonstrated their need for some ooomph at the plate next year.

Andrew McCutchen and Andy LaRoche are teaming up nicely at the top of the order; Garrett Jones and Ryan Doumit may or may not be a pair of middle-of-the-order building blocks. Even if they do pan out, the Bucs need a clean-up bat next year.

Could mid-June be Pedro time?

Bucco Banter

-- Well, add Jose Ascanio to the list of Pirate pitchers that had a tweak that Dr. James Andrews had to fix. Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette and Jen Langosch of MLB.com both report that he had surgery for a torn labrum today in Pensecola. There's no schedule for his return.

-- Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review says that Charlie Morton is learning how to pitch with a little help from his friends in Pittsburgh. Addressing the perceived lack of leadership and veteran presence, Morton says "I've talked more baseball here than in any other clubhouse I've been in."

-- The Bucs are going to finish the season on Sunday with the pitch-by-committee approach they've used with so success recently. They're shutting Kevin Hart down and bringing back Jeff Karstens on three days rest, according to the beat reporters.

-- LHP Rudy Owens and C Tony Sanchez made Baseball America's Top Twenty Prospects list for the Sally league.

-- How low can you go? The Las Vegas Sun reports that authorities have an arrest warrant for former Pirate, Astro, and Yankee pitcher Shawn Chacon as a result of his alleged failure to pay Caesars Palace $150,000 in gambling markers. Geez, good thing he left Pittsburgh before the Rivers Casino opened, hey?

-- Mr. Nutting may have to fight to keep one of his revenue streams gushing because of mismanagement in DC - and no, not Congress. Craig Calcaterra of NBC's Circling the Bases says:
"The big teams like the Yankees and Dodgers bite their tongues and pay their revenue sharing money out to the Pirates and Royals of the world because, well, that's the system we have. They may not bite their tongues much longer, though, because they really, really don't like paying a large-market team like the Nationals -- which Forbes Magazine rates as the second most profitable team in baseball -- that kind of scratch...

...Given the financial disparities in the game, some form of revenue sharing is essential. But a system that rewards a team with huge welfare checks for keeping its payroll lower than its market and revenue would rationally dictate (and losing tons of ballgames in the process) is not a sustainable one.

I suspect that it would take the form of requiring any teams receiving checks to spend the money on players as opposed to simply pocketing it and declaring a profit like the Nats and Pirates do every year."
-- Old Pirate and current Astro announcer, Milo Hamilton, 82, is still at it. CitiField became the 57th stadium that he's broadcast a game from when he got behind the mic last night.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Cover Up...

For your viewing pleasure: A vid of Joe Mauer stealing the Tigers' signs off of Gerald Laird and passing them on to Jason Kubel as the Twins try to stay alive in the AL Central:


The Twins deny the whole thing.

Credit: Craig Calcaterra of NBC's Circling the Bases.