-- Unless they've not learned their Mad Capper lesson, the suits are gonna have deal Delwyn Young or Brandon Moss; both are out of options and Ryan Church (Fangraph's Jack Moore loves the deal) is making at least one of them redundant. Steve Pearce, Brian Bixler, and Neal Walker all have at least one option remaining.
The beat gang also says a couple more free agent signings are in the air, along with a possible trade. Change is Pittsburgh's only constant. Neal Huntington is at a GM meeting in Arizona now. We wonder what Zach Duke or Ryan Doumit are worth these days?
Our guess is the signing of Luke Carlin was to shore up the catching spot if someone meets Huntington's price for Doumit. The Bucs didn't suffer too badly with Jason Jaramillo and Robby Diaz splitting dish time last season.
-- The beat guys and gals are also reporting that a deal for Octavio Dotel is just around the bend, on the heels of agreeing to terms with long-man D.J. Carrasco for a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. It'll be worth $950K if he stays in the show and some bonus sugar if he pitches enough, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette.
-- Adam LaRoche overplayed his hand a bit, so it seems. After reportedly turning down a two year/$17.5M deal with the Giants, he ended up with the D-Backs, getting one year and between $4.5-5.5M, according to tweets and stuff collected by Major League Trade Rumor's Tim Dierkes.
-- Green Weenie may have to give up on sabermetrics. No, not because he's too old school to do the math, but because according to the Associated Press, someone wants to trademark the term, which has been in the public domain for 30 years. Lawyers and baseball, bah!
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Storylines
OK, mini-camp has started, and except for visa problems *sigh* for Jose Tabata and Jose Ascanio, the gang's all in Florida.
For the Pirates, it's step one in determining a roster with which to bravely march into the future. There are two places where the traffic is especially congested, the outfield corners and the bullpen.
The crowd in the pasture consists of sure shots Andrew McCutchen, Lastings Milledge, Garrett Jones, and Ryan Church. After that, aye carumba!
Will this be the end of the road for Brandon Moss or Delwyn Young? Can John Raynor transfer his center field skills into a roster position? Jonathan Van Every is in camp too, even though he seems to be penciled in as Indy insurance. The only oufielders absent are Moss and Church.
The outfield shakeout will be one top storyline to watch in March to see who wins the steel-cage match for the suddenly crowded field of fly boys. It'll be affected by a couple of questions - when will Tabata take his bow, and will Jones remain at least a platoon OFer or become a full-time first baseman?
The bullpen is another area that's drawn a cattle call. Roster players Anthony Claggett, Joel Hanrahan, Steven Jackson, Chris Jakubauskas, Javier Lopez, Evan Meek, and Ronald Uviedo are in Florida. Uviedo is the only guy that will start for sure on the farm, though Claggett is a long-shot.
Non-roster attendees are Jeff Karstens, Vinnie Chulk, Virgil Vasquez, Jeremy Powell, Jack Taschner, Justin Thomas and Brian Burres. No Dotel or Carrasco signings - yet.
Ascanio, Tyler Yates, Neal Cotts, and Craig Hansen are out with injuries; Wil Ledezma, Ramon Aguero, and Jean Machi all got byes because they were in winter ball.
This will be another storyline worth watching in the spring. Hanrahan, Meek, and Lopez are locks; four positions will be up for grabs.
Starters Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, Daniel McCutchen, Hart, Brad Lincoln, and Donnie Veal are also throwing. Jimmy Barthmaier is there too, but hasn't recovered enough from his TJ surgery from last May to toss the pill yet.
There are some storylines here, too - when will Lincoln get the call? Will Hart start in the pen or rotation? Do the suits think they have enough depth to deal a Duke or Maholm?
Other position players that are taking advantage of some early work are Ramon Vazquez, Jeff Clement, Andy LaRoche and Steve Pearce along with catchers Ryan Doumit, Jason Jaramillo and Erik Kratz.
The storyline here is what becomes of Clement and the guys who split time between Indy and Pittsburgh - Pearce, Brian Bixler, and Neal Walker?
So the prelude is finally being played. 2010 may not add a lot of wins to the Bucs' total, but it looks like a year in transition as the suits finally muck their way into putting together a roster for the future.
For the Pirates, it's step one in determining a roster with which to bravely march into the future. There are two places where the traffic is especially congested, the outfield corners and the bullpen.
The crowd in the pasture consists of sure shots Andrew McCutchen, Lastings Milledge, Garrett Jones, and Ryan Church. After that, aye carumba!
Will this be the end of the road for Brandon Moss or Delwyn Young? Can John Raynor transfer his center field skills into a roster position? Jonathan Van Every is in camp too, even though he seems to be penciled in as Indy insurance. The only oufielders absent are Moss and Church.
The outfield shakeout will be one top storyline to watch in March to see who wins the steel-cage match for the suddenly crowded field of fly boys. It'll be affected by a couple of questions - when will Tabata take his bow, and will Jones remain at least a platoon OFer or become a full-time first baseman?
The bullpen is another area that's drawn a cattle call. Roster players Anthony Claggett, Joel Hanrahan, Steven Jackson, Chris Jakubauskas, Javier Lopez, Evan Meek, and Ronald Uviedo are in Florida. Uviedo is the only guy that will start for sure on the farm, though Claggett is a long-shot.
Non-roster attendees are Jeff Karstens, Vinnie Chulk, Virgil Vasquez, Jeremy Powell, Jack Taschner, Justin Thomas and Brian Burres. No Dotel or Carrasco signings - yet.
Ascanio, Tyler Yates, Neal Cotts, and Craig Hansen are out with injuries; Wil Ledezma, Ramon Aguero, and Jean Machi all got byes because they were in winter ball.
This will be another storyline worth watching in the spring. Hanrahan, Meek, and Lopez are locks; four positions will be up for grabs.
Starters Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, Daniel McCutchen, Hart, Brad Lincoln, and Donnie Veal are also throwing. Jimmy Barthmaier is there too, but hasn't recovered enough from his TJ surgery from last May to toss the pill yet.
There are some storylines here, too - when will Lincoln get the call? Will Hart start in the pen or rotation? Do the suits think they have enough depth to deal a Duke or Maholm?
Other position players that are taking advantage of some early work are Ramon Vazquez, Jeff Clement, Andy LaRoche and Steve Pearce along with catchers Ryan Doumit, Jason Jaramillo and Erik Kratz.
The storyline here is what becomes of Clement and the guys who split time between Indy and Pittsburgh - Pearce, Brian Bixler, and Neal Walker?
So the prelude is finally being played. 2010 may not add a lot of wins to the Bucs' total, but it looks like a year in transition as the suits finally muck their way into putting together a roster for the future.
Monday, January 11, 2010
What's Up Doc?
Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette is reporting that the Bucs and Ryan Church have reached a deal, pending a physical. And rest assured the Pirate sawbones will poke and prod Church.
Church's 2009 list of maladies included a sore hamstring, hyper-extended elbow, and back spasms. The back issues are the main concern. He also suffered a minor concussion while running out a grounder in 2008 and catching a knee to the noggin.
The 31 year-old was picked by the Cleveland Indians in the 14th round of the 2000 draft, from the University of Nevada at Reno. In January of 2004, he was traded by the Indians to the Montreal Expos.
He got into 30 games for the Expos in 2004, and stunk the joint out. But in 2005, he rallied after a slow start to get himself into the ROY race. That's when his first brush with the injury bug-a-boo occurred, ironically at PNC Park.
On June 22nd, 2005, he crashed into Pittsburgh's outfield wall. At the time, Church was batting .325 with a .544 slugging percentage. After the collision, he made two trips to the disabled list and faded in the second half of the season.
Still, he finished hitting .287 with with 9 homers and 42 RBI in just over 300 at-bats. Church started 2006 in AAA, but was called up quickly and in the past five years has put together a .272 lifetime average and played all three outfield positions.
Want some more Pittsburgh connections? On November 30th, 2007, Church was traded by the Washington Nats along with Brian Schneider to the New York Mets for Lastings Milledge.
On July 10th, 2009, he was traded to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur, and was DFA'ed by Atlanta on December 8th, 2009 to make room for the return of Rafael Soriano. The Braves non-tendered Church, whom we believe has one more arbitration year (he was a Super Two guy), making him a free agent and reconnecting him with the Pirates.
If he gets past the doc's exam later this week, he fills a definite need for the Bucs. Church is a left handed hitter, which means that Garrett Jones can go to first when a righty is on the hill (and that Brandon Moss' chances of making the team are growing dimmer; the Pirates will have more outfielders in camp than Carter has little pills!)
He hit .287/.357/.460 against righties over the past three seasons, making him a perfect platoon guy (he's played both off the bench and as a starter) and insurance policy for Jose Tabata.
Church is a pretty accomplished gloveman, too, having played center for Washington once upon a time, although he's surely penciled into a corner spot, likely right, in Pittsburgh.
The contract terms weren't announced. Church took in $2.8M last year, so it'll be interesting to see what the Bucs offered.
So if his back is up to snuff, it'll be time for the suits to reel in a couple of relievers and head to Florida.
Church's 2009 list of maladies included a sore hamstring, hyper-extended elbow, and back spasms. The back issues are the main concern. He also suffered a minor concussion while running out a grounder in 2008 and catching a knee to the noggin.
The 31 year-old was picked by the Cleveland Indians in the 14th round of the 2000 draft, from the University of Nevada at Reno. In January of 2004, he was traded by the Indians to the Montreal Expos.
He got into 30 games for the Expos in 2004, and stunk the joint out. But in 2005, he rallied after a slow start to get himself into the ROY race. That's when his first brush with the injury bug-a-boo occurred, ironically at PNC Park.
On June 22nd, 2005, he crashed into Pittsburgh's outfield wall. At the time, Church was batting .325 with a .544 slugging percentage. After the collision, he made two trips to the disabled list and faded in the second half of the season.
Still, he finished hitting .287 with with 9 homers and 42 RBI in just over 300 at-bats. Church started 2006 in AAA, but was called up quickly and in the past five years has put together a .272 lifetime average and played all three outfield positions.
Want some more Pittsburgh connections? On November 30th, 2007, Church was traded by the Washington Nats along with Brian Schneider to the New York Mets for Lastings Milledge.
On July 10th, 2009, he was traded to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur, and was DFA'ed by Atlanta on December 8th, 2009 to make room for the return of Rafael Soriano. The Braves non-tendered Church, whom we believe has one more arbitration year (he was a Super Two guy), making him a free agent and reconnecting him with the Pirates.
If he gets past the doc's exam later this week, he fills a definite need for the Bucs. Church is a left handed hitter, which means that Garrett Jones can go to first when a righty is on the hill (and that Brandon Moss' chances of making the team are growing dimmer; the Pirates will have more outfielders in camp than Carter has little pills!)
He hit .287/.357/.460 against righties over the past three seasons, making him a perfect platoon guy (he's played both off the bench and as a starter) and insurance policy for Jose Tabata.
Church is a pretty accomplished gloveman, too, having played center for Washington once upon a time, although he's surely penciled into a corner spot, likely right, in Pittsburgh.
The contract terms weren't announced. Church took in $2.8M last year, so it'll be interesting to see what the Bucs offered.
So if his back is up to snuff, it'll be time for the suits to reel in a couple of relievers and head to Florida.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Hey, Big Spender
Ya know, ol' Green Weenie can't help but to look at the rest of the free-spending Central Division and wonder how the penny-pinching Pirates fit in.
The Central King-Kong is Chicago. The Cubs have $104M+ invested in just in eight players: Carlos Zambrano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, and Carlos Silva (they took on his bad contract in exchange for Milton Bradley's bad contract and $9M).
They haven't made any real moves except for signing Marlon Byrd for $3M and John Grabow for $3.5M.
Overall, their contracted obligation is $124,625,000 for eleven signed players; they have eight more guys entering arbitration. Estimated Payroll: $140M
Then there's St. Louis. They just signed Matt Holliday to a seven year, $120M contract. The holy trinity of Holliday, Albert Pujols, and Chris Carpenter will earn $47.5M this year.
The Cards have a $81,287,500 commitment to a dozen players this season and two arbitration-eligible players. Estimated Payroll: $100M
The Astros? They don't have the long green to bring in a big gun; heck, they have $48M tied up this year in just Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Roy Oswalt. Geez, it was all they could do ink Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15M contract.
So far, they owe $74,106,500 to twelve players in 2010, and have six guys entering arbitration. Estimated Payroll: $93M
Milwaukee's big signings were lefty Randy Wolf for three years, $29.75M, LaTroy Hawkins for two years and $7.5M, and resigning Trevor Hoffman for another $7.5M.
The Brew Crew has $62,987,500 payable to ten players under contract this season with three guys due arbitration. Estimated Payroll: $80M
Look at our Ohio rivals, the Cincy Reds. Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated just tweeted that they are on the verge of signing Cuban fastballer Aroldis Chapman for a guaranteed five year, $30M deal.
Hey, he's a 22 year-old lefty that hits 102 MPH; some people think he's the second coming of Randy Johnson. Stephen Strasburg, last year's numero uno, looks like a bargain at a mere $15M. We won't even bring up the peanuts involved in the Miguel Sano bidding war.
They have $63,879,167 committed to ten players in 2010; three of the remainder are due for arbitration. But they're a young team, and like the Bucs, feature a lot of players under team control. Estimated Payroll: $73.5M
Hey, Pittsburgh added $4M+ to its payroll when it dealt for Akinori Iwamura; of course, they made a big chunk of that up by releasing Matt Capps.
The Bucs have $20,525,000 due to eight players under contract; Zach Duke is due arbitration. Estimated Payroll: $34M
We don't really think any deep analysis is needed. The Buc payroll is less than half of the next lowest in the division. That's OK for now.
Here's the upcoming conundrum: all the players the Pirates have under control will sooner or later become eligible for arbitration and real contracts. They're in decent shape for the next couple of years, but then the young talent they've been hoarding will come due for major league salaries. That's when the salary gap will become unsustainable.
And that's when we'll find out if the Pirates can compete financially or will just continue their hamster-wheel existence of dealing players for prospects.
EDIT - Guys, sorry that I ended up with a modestly expanded version of Dejan Kovacevic's article from Sunday's Post Gazette. That's what I get for watching football all day instead of checking out the local sports before I post!
(Contract and payroll figures were taken from Cot's Contracts. The payrolls are based on 25-man rosters.)
The Central King-Kong is Chicago. The Cubs have $104M+ invested in just in eight players: Carlos Zambrano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, and Carlos Silva (they took on his bad contract in exchange for Milton Bradley's bad contract and $9M).
They haven't made any real moves except for signing Marlon Byrd for $3M and John Grabow for $3.5M.
Overall, their contracted obligation is $124,625,000 for eleven signed players; they have eight more guys entering arbitration. Estimated Payroll: $140M
Then there's St. Louis. They just signed Matt Holliday to a seven year, $120M contract. The holy trinity of Holliday, Albert Pujols, and Chris Carpenter will earn $47.5M this year.
The Cards have a $81,287,500 commitment to a dozen players this season and two arbitration-eligible players. Estimated Payroll: $100M
The Astros? They don't have the long green to bring in a big gun; heck, they have $48M tied up this year in just Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Roy Oswalt. Geez, it was all they could do ink Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15M contract.
So far, they owe $74,106,500 to twelve players in 2010, and have six guys entering arbitration. Estimated Payroll: $93M
Milwaukee's big signings were lefty Randy Wolf for three years, $29.75M, LaTroy Hawkins for two years and $7.5M, and resigning Trevor Hoffman for another $7.5M.
The Brew Crew has $62,987,500 payable to ten players under contract this season with three guys due arbitration. Estimated Payroll: $80M
Look at our Ohio rivals, the Cincy Reds. Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated just tweeted that they are on the verge of signing Cuban fastballer Aroldis Chapman for a guaranteed five year, $30M deal.
Hey, he's a 22 year-old lefty that hits 102 MPH; some people think he's the second coming of Randy Johnson. Stephen Strasburg, last year's numero uno, looks like a bargain at a mere $15M. We won't even bring up the peanuts involved in the Miguel Sano bidding war.
They have $63,879,167 committed to ten players in 2010; three of the remainder are due for arbitration. But they're a young team, and like the Bucs, feature a lot of players under team control. Estimated Payroll: $73.5M
Hey, Pittsburgh added $4M+ to its payroll when it dealt for Akinori Iwamura; of course, they made a big chunk of that up by releasing Matt Capps.
The Bucs have $20,525,000 due to eight players under contract; Zach Duke is due arbitration. Estimated Payroll: $34M
We don't really think any deep analysis is needed. The Buc payroll is less than half of the next lowest in the division. That's OK for now.
Here's the upcoming conundrum: all the players the Pirates have under control will sooner or later become eligible for arbitration and real contracts. They're in decent shape for the next couple of years, but then the young talent they've been hoarding will come due for major league salaries. That's when the salary gap will become unsustainable.
And that's when we'll find out if the Pirates can compete financially or will just continue their hamster-wheel existence of dealing players for prospects.
EDIT - Guys, sorry that I ended up with a modestly expanded version of Dejan Kovacevic's article from Sunday's Post Gazette. That's what I get for watching football all day instead of checking out the local sports before I post!
(Contract and payroll figures were taken from Cot's Contracts. The payrolls are based on 25-man rosters.)
Saturday, January 9, 2010
The Bullpen Rebuild
Hey, should we be worried about the 2010 Pirate bullpen? After all, the suits, in many public statements, have made it fairly clear that they believe that it's an area that's a) can be addressed year-to-year by market means, and b) not a place to tie up money.
Unlike some of the other suit philosophies, Green Weenie thinks they're right on in this case.
They've lost Solly Torres, Damaso Marte, John Grabow, Sean Burnett, Jesse Chavez, and Matt Capps since Neal Huntington's arrival. Ramon Aguero and Ronald Uviedo are the only relievers on the 40-man roster who predate the current front office.
All the gonzo guys were from the back end of the pen, and three of them signed up with other teams for $3M/year or better contracts.
Now we'll admit some of the replacements have been less than stellar - Denny Bautista, Chris Bootcheck, Romulo Sanchez, Frankie Osario, Marino Salas...but the key is none of those guys were supposed to see the ball with the game on the line. They were cannon fodder, meant to eat innings when the starters faltered early.
A bullpen is as good as the arms it can trot out to close a game in the last two or three innings; that usually requires an investment in three, maybe four pitchers. Heck, you don't even need a lights-out closer. Having Mariana Rivera is nice, but there have been plenty of closer-by-committee pens, or closer switches during the year. Just look at Pittsburgh.
We went back to Teke's last season of 1984 to see who closed: they were John Candelaria, Don Robinson, Jim Gott, Bill Landrum, Stan Belinda, Alejando Pena, Rick White, Cecilio Guante, Dan Miceli, Francisco Cordova, Rick Loiselle, Mike Williams, Jose Mesa, Mike Gonzalez, Solly Torres, and the Mad Capper.
There were a couple of clunkers in there, but all in all, they finished games pretty well and affordably over the past twenty-five years. Mike Williams closed for four years to lead the pack; Capps was actually one of our longer-tenured ninth inning men.
Let's start with the basic building block, the closer. It appears that Joel Hanrahan is the default guy, with Evan Meek on tap if he reverts to Nat days. That's one place we'd like to see a veteran guy as an insurance policy.
Octavio Dotel would do just fine if the Bucs can ink him; we're not at all convinced that Kevin Gregg is an upgrade, and there's no need for a pricey closer for a team that's still building. Ramon Aguero will be at Altoona if the fat hits the fire.
Meek and Javier Lopez will be the set-up men; its possible that one of the Cub pitchers the Bucs got for John Grabow and Gorzo, Jose Ascanio or Kevin Hart, could become late-inning guys if they fizzle as starters.
Both Tyler Yates and Neal Cotts fit in here, but neither will be back from TJ surgery until the late summer at best. Ascanio and Chris Hansen aren't throwing yet, either; their recovery timeline is still up in the air.
For a bridge arm, Steve Jackson should have a leg up on the competition. Chris Jakubauskas, Wil Ledezma, and Justin Thomas are all looking to land a spot here, too. If the Pirates are hot on DJ Carrasco, this is his place in the puzzle; he's a mid-inning pitcher, not a back ender.
For the long man/sixth starter spot, Hart, maybe Daniel McCutchen if he doesn't land a starting role, Jeff Karstens and Brian Burres are all possibilities.
It's not unusual for a bullpen to be unsettled at this time of the year; both the Brewers and Cardinals were in the same boat last year, and showed you can build a viable relief corp from scratch.
Do we like this bullpen? Not yet. It's too young and thin at the back end. But add a veteran set-up guy and have someone rise to take Matt Capp's role, and it's OK. There are still dozens of arms on the market, and we think that a couple at least will sign on for a stint at Pirate City in March.
But we do agree with the basic premise that now's not the time to load up on $3M set-up guys. In a couple of years, when a win is worth something in the standings, that may change. But for now, it looks like the suits are on the right track for filling the pen.
Unlike some of the other suit philosophies, Green Weenie thinks they're right on in this case.
They've lost Solly Torres, Damaso Marte, John Grabow, Sean Burnett, Jesse Chavez, and Matt Capps since Neal Huntington's arrival. Ramon Aguero and Ronald Uviedo are the only relievers on the 40-man roster who predate the current front office.
All the gonzo guys were from the back end of the pen, and three of them signed up with other teams for $3M/year or better contracts.
Now we'll admit some of the replacements have been less than stellar - Denny Bautista, Chris Bootcheck, Romulo Sanchez, Frankie Osario, Marino Salas...but the key is none of those guys were supposed to see the ball with the game on the line. They were cannon fodder, meant to eat innings when the starters faltered early.
A bullpen is as good as the arms it can trot out to close a game in the last two or three innings; that usually requires an investment in three, maybe four pitchers. Heck, you don't even need a lights-out closer. Having Mariana Rivera is nice, but there have been plenty of closer-by-committee pens, or closer switches during the year. Just look at Pittsburgh.
We went back to Teke's last season of 1984 to see who closed: they were John Candelaria, Don Robinson, Jim Gott, Bill Landrum, Stan Belinda, Alejando Pena, Rick White, Cecilio Guante, Dan Miceli, Francisco Cordova, Rick Loiselle, Mike Williams, Jose Mesa, Mike Gonzalez, Solly Torres, and the Mad Capper.
There were a couple of clunkers in there, but all in all, they finished games pretty well and affordably over the past twenty-five years. Mike Williams closed for four years to lead the pack; Capps was actually one of our longer-tenured ninth inning men.
Let's start with the basic building block, the closer. It appears that Joel Hanrahan is the default guy, with Evan Meek on tap if he reverts to Nat days. That's one place we'd like to see a veteran guy as an insurance policy.
Octavio Dotel would do just fine if the Bucs can ink him; we're not at all convinced that Kevin Gregg is an upgrade, and there's no need for a pricey closer for a team that's still building. Ramon Aguero will be at Altoona if the fat hits the fire.
Meek and Javier Lopez will be the set-up men; its possible that one of the Cub pitchers the Bucs got for John Grabow and Gorzo, Jose Ascanio or Kevin Hart, could become late-inning guys if they fizzle as starters.
Both Tyler Yates and Neal Cotts fit in here, but neither will be back from TJ surgery until the late summer at best. Ascanio and Chris Hansen aren't throwing yet, either; their recovery timeline is still up in the air.
For a bridge arm, Steve Jackson should have a leg up on the competition. Chris Jakubauskas, Wil Ledezma, and Justin Thomas are all looking to land a spot here, too. If the Pirates are hot on DJ Carrasco, this is his place in the puzzle; he's a mid-inning pitcher, not a back ender.
For the long man/sixth starter spot, Hart, maybe Daniel McCutchen if he doesn't land a starting role, Jeff Karstens and Brian Burres are all possibilities.
It's not unusual for a bullpen to be unsettled at this time of the year; both the Brewers and Cardinals were in the same boat last year, and showed you can build a viable relief corp from scratch.
Do we like this bullpen? Not yet. It's too young and thin at the back end. But add a veteran set-up guy and have someone rise to take Matt Capp's role, and it's OK. There are still dozens of arms on the market, and we think that a couple at least will sign on for a stint at Pirate City in March.
But we do agree with the basic premise that now's not the time to load up on $3M set-up guys. In a couple of years, when a win is worth something in the standings, that may change. But for now, it looks like the suits are on the right track for filling the pen.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Pedro
Hey, Washington Heights in Manhattan is noted for many things, some cool and some that aren't all that savory. But it was home to one of baseball's hallowed fields, the Polo Grounds, where Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, and Tom Seaver once strutted their stuff.
The Heights was also the nest where a couple of pretty fair major league careers were hatched; those of Manny Ramirez and Rod Carew. The Pirates are hoping to add a third name to Washington Heights' MLB honor roll, Pedro Alvarez.
Alvarez, who will be 23 in February, was a high school phenom. In his senior year of 2005, he set records for his team, Horace Mann, an independent prep school, in home runs, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and RBIs. Alvarez was named the Louisville Slugger and Gatorade New York Athlete of the Year and was on LS's All-America squad.
He also took his summer club team, the Bayside Yankees, to a national title in 2005. The Red Sox drafted him in the fourteenth round after that season, as he was ranked as the 97th best pro prospect in the country by BA. The Sox offered him a bonus said to be $775K, but Alvarez opted to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. Good move. It's not often the Pirates outbid the boys from Boston for a player.
He got off to a scorching start at Vandy and was picked as BA's National Freshman of the Year in 2006. Alvarez was then selected to the USA National team, leading the team in batting average. Baseball America ranked him as the 2nd best pro prospect on the squad. Sports Illustrated ranked him as the best pro prospect on the team and said that he was the "early favorite to be drafted first in 2008."
Before the 2007 campaign began Alvarez was named to the watchlist for the SEC and national player of the year awards and a pre-season All-America. Alvarez lived up to the hype, hitting .397 with 17 home runs, 65 RBI, 72 runs, an on-base percentage of .467, and a slugging percentage of .706 for the 51-11 Commodores.
Vanderbilt won its first ever SEC regular-season championship that year. During the SEC Tournament, Alvarez was named Tournament MVP. He was invited back to Team USA and led the team in homers, RBIs, batting average, hits, and slugging percentage.
He was first team All-America for three publications, and second-team on another pair before the 2008 season. Hey, even Dave Littlefield knew this kid could play, although we shudder to think who the Bucs would have picked if the new suits hadn't come aboard.
Alvarez kept raking as a junior, but he suffered a broken hamate bone, which sapped a lot of his power that season and took him out of the lineup for several weeks.
Maybe because of that (or the dreaded signability issue), Tampa Bay led off the 2008 draft by picking high school shortstop Tim Beckham, and the new Pirate front office earned huge cred among the long-suffering fans by taking Alvarez next.
Ah, but no one anticipated the upcoming drama. Scott Boras dragged the negotiations out to the midnight hour, when the Pirates announced they signed Alvarez to a $6M contract. After a few days of silence, Boras claimed that the ink dried two minutes late. The deal was no deal according to his calculations.
The whole affair was dumped in the league office's lap and went in front of a judge. But again, at the last minute, Alvarez and Boras relented and signed a new contract worth $6.35M. Why the brinkmanship?
As near as GW can figure, it was because Buster Posey got a $6.2M bonus in 2008, the highest ever before Steven Strasburg and Dustin Ackley bettered that number in 2009. So not only did Boras get the richest bonus up to that time, but he set the bar higher for the upcoming rooks. Devil or angel, he can sure work the system.
Of course, others rightly point out that the union filed the grievance, not the agent, and it was to uphold the contract, as the league had always allowed a little wiggle room for late signings and they didn't want to upset the apple cart. Apparently, both sides were leery of the ramifications of a binding decision, so they settled before a verdict was rendered. Machiavelli could be a GM today.
Anyway, 2008 was a lost year professionally for Alvarez, who bore the brunt of Boras' machinations. The Bucs front office didn't help by darkly muttering about his uncanny resemblance to the Sta-Puf Marshmallow Man. In fact, Alvarez didn't stay in shape because of a bout of tendinitis in his knees; he's in much better condition now that his knees have calmed down and he's on a structured program.
The draft flap was much ado about nothing. By all accounts, Pedro is a good kid, hard worker, and an academic whiz. Still, he bore the onus of being an ornery Boras client in the short term while losing what should have been his rookie season.
But everyone, from Neal Huntington to Scott Boras to Joe Fan knew that his public persona would eventually be linked to his performance. And hey, he's done a pretty good job of earning a little love lately.
After tearing it up in training camp, Alvarez was assigned to High A Lynchburg. He was productive, with 14 homers and 55 RBI in 243 at-bats, although he was hitting just .247. No problem; he was moved on to Altoona.
Alvarez hit .333/.419/.590 for the Curve with an OPS of 1.009, whacking 13 homers and driving home 40 in 222 at-bats. His overall maiden line was .288/.378/.535 with a .913 OPS, 32 doubles, 129 K's and 71 walks in 465 at-bats. And while he didn't exactly play third like Andy LaRoche, he wasn't Richie Hebner, either.
His arm is strong enough. He's a big guy (6'-2", 210-15 pounds), and his range isn't great. But Alvarez has an adequate mitt at the hot corner for now. Whether or not he moves to first, we think, will depend on how Andy LaRoche, Garrett Jones, and Jeff Clement play out by the time Pedro gets his call, likely this summer.
He's ticketed to start the year at Indy, and if all goes according to plan, it'll be Pedro time at PNC come June.
The Heights was also the nest where a couple of pretty fair major league careers were hatched; those of Manny Ramirez and Rod Carew. The Pirates are hoping to add a third name to Washington Heights' MLB honor roll, Pedro Alvarez.
Alvarez, who will be 23 in February, was a high school phenom. In his senior year of 2005, he set records for his team, Horace Mann, an independent prep school, in home runs, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and RBIs. Alvarez was named the Louisville Slugger and Gatorade New York Athlete of the Year and was on LS's All-America squad.
He also took his summer club team, the Bayside Yankees, to a national title in 2005. The Red Sox drafted him in the fourteenth round after that season, as he was ranked as the 97th best pro prospect in the country by BA. The Sox offered him a bonus said to be $775K, but Alvarez opted to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. Good move. It's not often the Pirates outbid the boys from Boston for a player.
He got off to a scorching start at Vandy and was picked as BA's National Freshman of the Year in 2006. Alvarez was then selected to the USA National team, leading the team in batting average. Baseball America ranked him as the 2nd best pro prospect on the squad. Sports Illustrated ranked him as the best pro prospect on the team and said that he was the "early favorite to be drafted first in 2008."
Before the 2007 campaign began Alvarez was named to the watchlist for the SEC and national player of the year awards and a pre-season All-America. Alvarez lived up to the hype, hitting .397 with 17 home runs, 65 RBI, 72 runs, an on-base percentage of .467, and a slugging percentage of .706 for the 51-11 Commodores.
Vanderbilt won its first ever SEC regular-season championship that year. During the SEC Tournament, Alvarez was named Tournament MVP. He was invited back to Team USA and led the team in homers, RBIs, batting average, hits, and slugging percentage.
He was first team All-America for three publications, and second-team on another pair before the 2008 season. Hey, even Dave Littlefield knew this kid could play, although we shudder to think who the Bucs would have picked if the new suits hadn't come aboard.
Alvarez kept raking as a junior, but he suffered a broken hamate bone, which sapped a lot of his power that season and took him out of the lineup for several weeks.
Maybe because of that (or the dreaded signability issue), Tampa Bay led off the 2008 draft by picking high school shortstop Tim Beckham, and the new Pirate front office earned huge cred among the long-suffering fans by taking Alvarez next.
Ah, but no one anticipated the upcoming drama. Scott Boras dragged the negotiations out to the midnight hour, when the Pirates announced they signed Alvarez to a $6M contract. After a few days of silence, Boras claimed that the ink dried two minutes late. The deal was no deal according to his calculations.
The whole affair was dumped in the league office's lap and went in front of a judge. But again, at the last minute, Alvarez and Boras relented and signed a new contract worth $6.35M. Why the brinkmanship?
As near as GW can figure, it was because Buster Posey got a $6.2M bonus in 2008, the highest ever before Steven Strasburg and Dustin Ackley bettered that number in 2009. So not only did Boras get the richest bonus up to that time, but he set the bar higher for the upcoming rooks. Devil or angel, he can sure work the system.
Of course, others rightly point out that the union filed the grievance, not the agent, and it was to uphold the contract, as the league had always allowed a little wiggle room for late signings and they didn't want to upset the apple cart. Apparently, both sides were leery of the ramifications of a binding decision, so they settled before a verdict was rendered. Machiavelli could be a GM today.
Anyway, 2008 was a lost year professionally for Alvarez, who bore the brunt of Boras' machinations. The Bucs front office didn't help by darkly muttering about his uncanny resemblance to the Sta-Puf Marshmallow Man. In fact, Alvarez didn't stay in shape because of a bout of tendinitis in his knees; he's in much better condition now that his knees have calmed down and he's on a structured program.
The draft flap was much ado about nothing. By all accounts, Pedro is a good kid, hard worker, and an academic whiz. Still, he bore the onus of being an ornery Boras client in the short term while losing what should have been his rookie season.
But everyone, from Neal Huntington to Scott Boras to Joe Fan knew that his public persona would eventually be linked to his performance. And hey, he's done a pretty good job of earning a little love lately.
After tearing it up in training camp, Alvarez was assigned to High A Lynchburg. He was productive, with 14 homers and 55 RBI in 243 at-bats, although he was hitting just .247. No problem; he was moved on to Altoona.
Alvarez hit .333/.419/.590 for the Curve with an OPS of 1.009, whacking 13 homers and driving home 40 in 222 at-bats. His overall maiden line was .288/.378/.535 with a .913 OPS, 32 doubles, 129 K's and 71 walks in 465 at-bats. And while he didn't exactly play third like Andy LaRoche, he wasn't Richie Hebner, either.
His arm is strong enough. He's a big guy (6'-2", 210-15 pounds), and his range isn't great. But Alvarez has an adequate mitt at the hot corner for now. Whether or not he moves to first, we think, will depend on how Andy LaRoche, Garrett Jones, and Jeff Clement play out by the time Pedro gets his call, likely this summer.
He's ticketed to start the year at Indy, and if all goes according to plan, it'll be Pedro time at PNC come June.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
#2 - Jose Tabata
José Tábata, born August 12, 1988, in Anzoategui, Venezuela, was inked by the New York Yankees in 2004 at the tender age of 16 for $550K. He was highly thought of from the get-go, considered to be one of those rare five-tool players almost unanimously by scouts. And by 2008, he had become the Yankees' Number 2 prospect, according to Baseball America.
At the age of 17 and in his first year of American pro ball (he spent his sixteen year-old season in the DSL), Tábata led the Yankees farm system in batting average, hitting .314/.382/.417 for the Gulf Coast Yankees in 2005.
In 2006, Tábata batted .298/.377/.420 for the Low A Charleston RiverDogs of the Sally League. He was selected as a member of the All-Star Futures Game as a member of the World Team. The game was part of the 2006 All-Star Game at PNC Park, and he played center field while going 1-for-3 with a single off fellow Yankees farmhand Phil Hughes.
He was hit on the right wrist later in the season, ending his year. The wrist would continue to bother him throughout 2007, and he finally had the hamate bone removed in August of that year. He was still having problems with it into early 2008.
In 2007, Tábata played for the High-A Tampa Yankees, where he hit .307/.371/.392, and was assigned to AA Trenton to begin 2008.
The Yankees started to wonder about his mental makeup after he was suspended twice that summer.
Tabata first lost three games for leaving a contest without the team's permission. A short while later, he either was yanked after he didn't back up Austin Jackson in the outfield, or got into a shoving match inside the dugout. Either way, it cost him more time.
Even before those incidents, some scouts claimed that Tabata coasted through many games, playing hard only as the spirit moved him. Copping a 'tude, especially in a tradition-laden organization like the Yankees, probably torpedoed any career plans he had to pull on the pinstripes.
On July 26, 2008, Tábata was part of the return, along with Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, and Daniel McCutchen, when Xavier Nady and Dámaso Marte went to the Big Apple.
He moved from AA Trenton to Altoona, and during the year his line was .277/.345/.388.
Tabata started 2009 with the Curve, and got a late call to Indy. He started off slowly, then missed nearly two months with a late April hamstring injury (he also missed time in 2008 with a pull). His combined line last year was .293/.357/.406. In five minor league seasons, he's compiled a .295/.364/.402 line.
Tabata finished the year in the Arizona Fall League, where he raked, hitting .392/.448/.517, and was added to the forty-man roster on November 11th.
His maturity level, questioned by the NYY, seemed just fine here. In March of 2009, Tábata's wife, Amalia Tábata Pereira, was arrested and charged with kidnapping a 2-month-old girl in Florida.
In what could have been a springboard to personal disaster, Tabata instead handled himself well, and had a problem-free 2009 season. A combination of being a little older, speaking and understanding English a bit better, and being out of the New York media splash have contributed to his maturity.
The guy some scouts compared to Manny Ramirez ain't quite there yet. The most noticeable difference is that Tabata has never hit more than eight home runs in any minor-league season, certainly an un-Manny stat.
Some people think he's a line-drive hitter whose swing is built to crank out doubles and top out as a 12-15 homer guy; others believe that his stronger base (he's put on 50 pounds since the Yankees found him in 2004; he's 5'-11" and 215 pounds now) and complete recovery from hamate surgery will make him a potential 30 HR guy.
His speed is good, but Tabata hasn’t stolen 20 or more bases since leaving the GCL in 2005. His speed has decreased a bit as his lower body has gotten heavier, and last year was his poorest showing on the basepaths, stealing just eleven bases in nineteen tries (58%).
Still, he runs well enough that he's played plenty of center field, although he projects to be a corner outfielder when he reaches the show. He's gotten time in right because of his plus arm, although PNC's left field would seem a natural spot for him.
Tabata turned 21 in August. His first three or four pro season saw him playing as one of the youngest guys at his level, and with little command of English to help him along.
He hits for average, has a good OBP, an above-average arm, above-average speed, and plays above-average defense. The power question is still up in the air, although we don't think he's going to end up a big bopper. All in all, maybe not five tools, but a plus player in almost every aspect of his game. He's close to winding his Major League clock.
Jose Tabata is scheduled to start the year in Indy. He could be up as soon as June, time enough to get his feet wet and still avoid Super Two arbitration status.
(Next - #1 Pedro Alvarez)
At the age of 17 and in his first year of American pro ball (he spent his sixteen year-old season in the DSL), Tábata led the Yankees farm system in batting average, hitting .314/.382/.417 for the Gulf Coast Yankees in 2005.
In 2006, Tábata batted .298/.377/.420 for the Low A Charleston RiverDogs of the Sally League. He was selected as a member of the All-Star Futures Game as a member of the World Team. The game was part of the 2006 All-Star Game at PNC Park, and he played center field while going 1-for-3 with a single off fellow Yankees farmhand Phil Hughes.
He was hit on the right wrist later in the season, ending his year. The wrist would continue to bother him throughout 2007, and he finally had the hamate bone removed in August of that year. He was still having problems with it into early 2008.
In 2007, Tábata played for the High-A Tampa Yankees, where he hit .307/.371/.392, and was assigned to AA Trenton to begin 2008.
The Yankees started to wonder about his mental makeup after he was suspended twice that summer.
Tabata first lost three games for leaving a contest without the team's permission. A short while later, he either was yanked after he didn't back up Austin Jackson in the outfield, or got into a shoving match inside the dugout. Either way, it cost him more time.
Even before those incidents, some scouts claimed that Tabata coasted through many games, playing hard only as the spirit moved him. Copping a 'tude, especially in a tradition-laden organization like the Yankees, probably torpedoed any career plans he had to pull on the pinstripes.
On July 26, 2008, Tábata was part of the return, along with Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, and Daniel McCutchen, when Xavier Nady and Dámaso Marte went to the Big Apple.
He moved from AA Trenton to Altoona, and during the year his line was .277/.345/.388.
Tabata started 2009 with the Curve, and got a late call to Indy. He started off slowly, then missed nearly two months with a late April hamstring injury (he also missed time in 2008 with a pull). His combined line last year was .293/.357/.406. In five minor league seasons, he's compiled a .295/.364/.402 line.
Tabata finished the year in the Arizona Fall League, where he raked, hitting .392/.448/.517, and was added to the forty-man roster on November 11th.
His maturity level, questioned by the NYY, seemed just fine here. In March of 2009, Tábata's wife, Amalia Tábata Pereira, was arrested and charged with kidnapping a 2-month-old girl in Florida.
In what could have been a springboard to personal disaster, Tabata instead handled himself well, and had a problem-free 2009 season. A combination of being a little older, speaking and understanding English a bit better, and being out of the New York media splash have contributed to his maturity.
The guy some scouts compared to Manny Ramirez ain't quite there yet. The most noticeable difference is that Tabata has never hit more than eight home runs in any minor-league season, certainly an un-Manny stat.
Some people think he's a line-drive hitter whose swing is built to crank out doubles and top out as a 12-15 homer guy; others believe that his stronger base (he's put on 50 pounds since the Yankees found him in 2004; he's 5'-11" and 215 pounds now) and complete recovery from hamate surgery will make him a potential 30 HR guy.
His speed is good, but Tabata hasn’t stolen 20 or more bases since leaving the GCL in 2005. His speed has decreased a bit as his lower body has gotten heavier, and last year was his poorest showing on the basepaths, stealing just eleven bases in nineteen tries (58%).
Still, he runs well enough that he's played plenty of center field, although he projects to be a corner outfielder when he reaches the show. He's gotten time in right because of his plus arm, although PNC's left field would seem a natural spot for him.
Tabata turned 21 in August. His first three or four pro season saw him playing as one of the youngest guys at his level, and with little command of English to help him along.
He hits for average, has a good OBP, an above-average arm, above-average speed, and plays above-average defense. The power question is still up in the air, although we don't think he's going to end up a big bopper. All in all, maybe not five tools, but a plus player in almost every aspect of his game. He's close to winding his Major League clock.
Jose Tabata is scheduled to start the year in Indy. He could be up as soon as June, time enough to get his feet wet and still avoid Super Two arbitration status.
(Next - #1 Pedro Alvarez)
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Three Million - The Line In The Sand
The Bucco bye-bye boys and what they’re worth today:
-- 1B Adam LaRoche supposedly turned down a 2-year/$13M $17M offer from Giants; San Fran and the O’s are said to be the only teams interested in him. He made $7.05M in 2009 with his last Pirate contract.
-- RF Xavier Nady signed a one-year/$6.65M with the Yankees for 2009, avoiding his last arbitration season, and then had TJ surgery. He’s a free agent this year.
-- RHP Matt Capps signed a $3.5M contract with Washington with $425K in bonuses.
-- LF Jason Bay inked a deal with the Mets for 4-years/$66M, including a vesting option for 2014 that could bring the total to $80M over five years. The contract contains a $17M option for 2014 that vests if Bay reaches 600 plate appearances in 2013 or 500 in both 2012 and 2013; both are easily attainable if he remains healthy.
-- RHP Jesse Chavez had a $402K contract in 2009. He won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2012.
-- LHP John Grabow became the first MLB free agent to reach a new deal when he signed a 2-year/$7.5M contract with the Chicago Cubs.
-- SS Jack Wilson signed with Seattle for 2-years/$10M and can earn $250K a year in performance bonuses. The M’s avoided the $8.4M option with a $600K buyout under Wilson’s old Bucco deal. He reportedly rejected a Pirate offer for two years and $8M.
-- The Giants swapped 2B Freddy Sanchez's $8.1M Pittsburgh option for a two-year/$12M deal. He supposedly turned down a 2-year/$10M offer by the Bucs.
-- RHP Ian Snell has a year and $4.25M remaining on his deal with $6.75M and $9.25M club options for 2011-12.
-- LHP Tom Gorzelanny is entering his first year of arbitration. He made $433K in 2009, and the Cubs have tendered him.
-- LHP Sean Burnett is arbitration-eligible this year, and the Nat’s tendered him a contract offer. Burney earned $408,500 in 2009.
-- LF Nyjer Morgan won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2012. He earned $411,500 in 2009.
-- CF Nate McLouth has $4.5M and $6.5M due to him from the Braves in the next two years, with a $10.65M club option ($1.25M buyout) for 2012.
-- LHP Damaso Marte signed a 3 year/$12M deal with the Yankees in 2009, after the Bronx Bombers turned down his $6M Pirate option.
-- RHP Salomon Torres made $3.333M in 2008 and retired in 2009, even though Milwaukee exercised his $3.75M option.
And this tells us what? Well, it sure draws the line in the sand – when you make $3M, you’re on the Bucco gonzo list, at least in this stage of the Pirates’ development.
So if we were Paul Maholm ($4.5M), Akinora Iwamura ($4.25M), Ryan Doumit ($3.55M) or Zach Duke (he made $2.2M in 2009 and is up for arbitration that's sure to net him more than $3M), we wouldn’t get real comfortable.
The first exception to the "trade down" rule was in Iwamura's case, when the team dealt Jesse Chavez, affordable and under team control until 2014, for a guy in his walk year with a real MLB contract.
We'll see about him; the Pirates say they'll try to resign him if he's a fit, but we suspect he's another July trade waiting to happen.
Still, it'd be nice to see a couple of players land here and plug a hole or two while the farm raises its crop. Maybe someone like, oh, Xavier Nady...as long as he doesn't ask for $3M.
(Unless otherwise noted, the contract info was taken from Cot's Contracts.)
-- 1B Adam LaRoche supposedly turned down a 2-year/
-- RF Xavier Nady signed a one-year/$6.65M with the Yankees for 2009, avoiding his last arbitration season, and then had TJ surgery. He’s a free agent this year.
-- RHP Matt Capps signed a $3.5M contract with Washington with $425K in bonuses.
-- LF Jason Bay inked a deal with the Mets for 4-years/$66M, including a vesting option for 2014 that could bring the total to $80M over five years. The contract contains a $17M option for 2014 that vests if Bay reaches 600 plate appearances in 2013 or 500 in both 2012 and 2013; both are easily attainable if he remains healthy.
-- RHP Jesse Chavez had a $402K contract in 2009. He won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2012.
-- LHP John Grabow became the first MLB free agent to reach a new deal when he signed a 2-year/$7.5M contract with the Chicago Cubs.
-- SS Jack Wilson signed with Seattle for 2-years/$10M and can earn $250K a year in performance bonuses. The M’s avoided the $8.4M option with a $600K buyout under Wilson’s old Bucco deal. He reportedly rejected a Pirate offer for two years and $8M.
-- The Giants swapped 2B Freddy Sanchez's $8.1M Pittsburgh option for a two-year/$12M deal. He supposedly turned down a 2-year/$10M offer by the Bucs.
-- RHP Ian Snell has a year and $4.25M remaining on his deal with $6.75M and $9.25M club options for 2011-12.
-- LHP Tom Gorzelanny is entering his first year of arbitration. He made $433K in 2009, and the Cubs have tendered him.
-- LHP Sean Burnett is arbitration-eligible this year, and the Nat’s tendered him a contract offer. Burney earned $408,500 in 2009.
-- LF Nyjer Morgan won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2012. He earned $411,500 in 2009.
-- CF Nate McLouth has $4.5M and $6.5M due to him from the Braves in the next two years, with a $10.65M club option ($1.25M buyout) for 2012.
-- LHP Damaso Marte signed a 3 year/$12M deal with the Yankees in 2009, after the Bronx Bombers turned down his $6M Pirate option.
-- RHP Salomon Torres made $3.333M in 2008 and retired in 2009, even though Milwaukee exercised his $3.75M option.
And this tells us what? Well, it sure draws the line in the sand – when you make $3M, you’re on the Bucco gonzo list, at least in this stage of the Pirates’ development.
So if we were Paul Maholm ($4.5M), Akinora Iwamura ($4.25M), Ryan Doumit ($3.55M) or Zach Duke (he made $2.2M in 2009 and is up for arbitration that's sure to net him more than $3M), we wouldn’t get real comfortable.
The first exception to the "trade down" rule was in Iwamura's case, when the team dealt Jesse Chavez, affordable and under team control until 2014, for a guy in his walk year with a real MLB contract.
We'll see about him; the Pirates say they'll try to resign him if he's a fit, but we suspect he's another July trade waiting to happen.
Still, it'd be nice to see a couple of players land here and plug a hole or two while the farm raises its crop. Maybe someone like, oh, Xavier Nady...as long as he doesn't ask for $3M.
(Unless otherwise noted, the contract info was taken from Cot's Contracts.)
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Pellas On The Pirates: The New Year Bucs Part Deux
I thought a little point-counterpoint discussion might be in order after reading GW's take on the current state of the Pirates as we look ahead to Spring Training in a few weeks. Ron's original writing is in italics, with my response in regular text after each paragraph.
OK, so how does the immediate future of the club look after three months of hot stove tinkering? Well, not a heck of lot different than it did when they were losing 99 games last year.
In general, I agree, "which is both bogus and sad", to quote the great Wayne Campbell.
There is, I believe, some small room for optimism, but there's no question the offseason has been, in general, a disappointment. Especially for a team that barely avoided 100 losses. Oh, that's right, I forgot: it "doesn't matter how many games we lose 'cuz we're rebuilding".
Got it.
Starting Pitching: Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton are in, pending some late wheeling-and-dealing; Dan McCutchen and Kevin Hart will go mano-a-mano for the last spot. Jose Ascanio has a shot to step in later during the year. Brad Lincoln is probably the only guy in the system with a chance to crack the rotation sometime during the season.
My grousing aside, the starting rotation might be the one spot on the roster that could significantly alter the look of the team for the better if/when a trade is consummated sometime during the 2010 season. There would seem to be a small but significant surplus of starting pitching on hand, and one would think that veteran lefthanders Zach Duke and especially Paul Maholm would be extremely desireable to many teams. Brad Lincoln will be two years removed from his Tommy John surgery, and he has little left to prove in the minors. He'll be at Indianapolis until June to avoid Super-Two arbitration status, but unless he implodes totally, he'll bring his Blyleven-esque curveball to Pittsburgh no later than the All-Star break. Daniel McCutchen would figure to have the inside track on at least the fifth starter's spot---I personally think he's better than that---but he looked at least capable in limited action late in 2009. I believe Kevin Hart is better suited for the bullpen (assuming he can handle even that much) but he's a big, strong, hard-throwing guy and maybe the lightbulb will come on for him. If nothing else he is depth that can be called upon. Therefore, a Pirates starting pitcher can---and should be---dealt in exchange for hitting, ideally a corner outfielder with at least some power. Unless a buyer's market veteran comes on board late in the offseason, which is certainly a viable option in the current economy. More on the outfield below....
Bullpen: Bye-bye, Matt Capps and Jesse Chavez. 2010's firemen look like Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan, Javier Lopez, Steven Jackson, Chris Jakubauskas, the loser of the McCutchen-Hart mashup (although McC could end up at Indy if they want to work him as a starter), and Jose Ascanio. Hanrahan and Meek will audition for the closers' role, although closer-by-committee could well be in the cards for 2010. There's a cast of thousands waiting if a seventh spot opens up.
I'm honestly not as worried about the 'pen as I was after John Grabow was traded. At least, I'm not as worried if Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan are healthy. Javier Lopez---one of the few offseason signings to this point who could have any real impact in 2010---will do nicely as a LOOGY if he is the 2006-2008 BoSox version and not the 2009 edition who got shelled, then demoted. I'm guessing he's more the former than the latter. If we can find one more quasi-useful lefthander from among Donnie Veal and this year's spring training invitees, I believe our 'pen will be effective if not overwhelming. Our relief corps would go from effective to very strong if Octavio Dotel signs with the Pirates, as has been rumored to be in the offing.
Infield: It should be Garrett Jones, Akinori Iwamura, the winner of the Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby cage match, and Andy LaRoche. What it will look like in August, if Iwamura goes and Pedro Alvarez arrives, is anybody's guess. Jeff Clements may get a shot at first, although we consider him a long shot. But the suits love him, so we'll see; he and Jones create a crowd. There's not much help in the upper levels yet; the cavalry is still a couple of seasons away from PNC.
That's not a bad starting infield, though still light on the hitting unless Crosby can somehow recapture his previous form and/or Cedeno has a career year and/or LaRoche starts looking more like he did while in the Dodgers system and less like he has for most of his major league career to date. Still, all the players GW mentioned are good or better than good with the glove, and if Jones continues his Roy Hobbs impression, ya never know.
I'd really like to see Iwamura at least be offered a contract to stay, though if LaRoche can handle second base, the best long term solution might be to move him there to make way for Alvarez. Alvarez, however, is no sure thing himself, as it remains to be seen whether he will eat himself off third base or not. In which case we have a logjam at first, unless Jones moves to right---which would figure to be Jose Tabata's position, unless---well, see below. Meanwhile I don't expect much from Pat Clement, but he was a first rounder once upon a time, and there's some thought that his mostly disappointing big league audition to this point in time can be blamed on his knee injuries. We'll see.
Catcher: Assuming they hold on to Ryan Doumit, he and Jason Jaramillo are set. But the question is: Can Doumit give them 135 games behind the plate? His history suggests not. So a position that was deep enough last year is iffy this season with Robby Diaz gone. We expect to see the Pirates pick up a veteran, good glove guy along the lines of Raul Chavez to split time with Eric Kratz at Indy. Minor league depth consists mainly of Tony Sanchez.
You could do worse than Jaramillo as a starting catcher, though he is better suited to be either a strong number two or perhaps a platoon semi-starter, but Jaramillo could be our number one sooner rather than later. It looks like the suits are determined to trade Doumit, in which case their axing of Robinzon Diaz (since inked by Detroit) is very strange, since he would have been no worse than Jaramillo's backup. What troubles me about moves like this one (if it happens) and the Iwamura acquisition is that they don't solve anything longer term; rather, they give us short-term fixes when no longer term options are on the horizon anywhere in the organization. Which means we would figure to have to go outside the organization, either in trade or free agency. Except that Pittsburgh is where free agents don't go even to die---well, not bigger name veterans, anyway---and the team does not yet have enough fungible minor leaguers who could be turned into big league veterans via trade on short notice.
Maybe the other shoe is about to drop, but ya gotta wonder.
Outfield: Start with Andrew McCutchen. End with Andrew McCutchen. Lastings Milledge will start, but has to keep improving and show some power. Who knows where Jones will end up? Rule 5 pick John Raynor will be all that Brandon Moss can handle; that should be one of the storylines of Spring Training. Jose Tabata could pop up in June, and Nyjo clone Gorkys Hernandez shouldn't be far behind. All in all, a competitive spot for Pittsburgh with a lot of possible end points.
McCutchen is the crown jewel, though I still want to see him hit like he did in 2009 over an entire season. But he's still far and away the best we've got even if he regresses with the stick. So no worries there. Milledge definitely said and did all the right things upon coming here, so maybe he's grown up a bit, but unless I'm mistaken, isn't he arbitration-eligible after 2010? In which case, why was he acquired in exchange for much-cheaper-for-far-longer Nyjer Morgan? Yet again: a short term acquisition who would seem a problematic fit, if at all, for the longer term.
However, there is more depth in the outfield than at some other spots, so Milledge might be auditioning for other teams, anyway, no matter how well he does in 2010. I really like John Raynor and believe he will beat out Brandon Moss in Bradenton. Moss might still make the team, but would surely figure to be on the next train out of town once Tabata is promoted, perhaps as soon as June though more likely in August. Tabata, another guy I really like, is not, however, a true power hitter. I am very concerned about the kind of pressure he might be facing from Pirates fandom and maybe even the front office. I believe he will be a Jose Cruz Sr type of hitter, ie, high .200s to low .300s with lots of doubles and 80-90 RBI, but probably not more than 15 HR most years. There's nothing wrong with that kind of production, but Cruz Sr was also an excellent basestealer and defensive player and Tabata is not overwhelmingly fast nor exceptional with the glove. He might be, in other words, the classic "tweener". Here's hoping he's more Cruz Sr than Melky Cabrera.
Count me as one who does not expect much, if anything, from Gorkys Hernandez. I'm looking further down in the minors at players like Robbie Grossman and Starling Marte.
Bench: Delwyn Young. Jason Jaramillo. Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby loser. Brandon Moss/John Raynor winner. We think Ramon Vazquez, despite his $2M deal, is on thin ice. Steve Pearce and Neil Walker have options left, so we expect them to be at Indy. That final spot on the pine could easily be filled with a late-signee from the free agent market that can play the corners and has a little pop.
Let's hope there will be a veteran, "professional hitter" type who will be signed before we go to Bradenton, for professional and competitive integrity if nothing else. I liked Marlon Byrd a lot for this role, but he just joined the Cubs on a 3 year deal. There are still a number of attractive options out there.
Overall: Lots of questions remain. They're still a couple of years from filling the gaps with internal talent, and don't seem likely to bring in a difference maker until the dots are connected, so any dealing will be for prospects, not players.
The offense counts on Jones, Milledge, LaRoche, and Doumit producing and a shortstop that can put up at least Jack Wilson-like numbers. The pitching should be OK, but the lack of an ace stopper hurts. Capps was going sooner or later; so it's time to get the bullpen merry-go-round in gear.
The pieces are slowly starting to arrive, but not soon enough to make the 2010 club a contender.
Adding Dotel and a productive veteran hitter would make this team much better on the field at PNC while we wait for the farm system to hit full production. I remain skeptical that current ownership and management will actually step up and make intelligent investments in a few carefully-chosen homegrown and veteran free agent players, either now or in the future. Just saying "the kids will save us" is NOT enough and certainly does not, in and of itself, constitute a coherent and honest attempt at fielding a winning team in Pittsburgh. While real improvement in our minor league system was the organization's biggest need, and while that real improvement has definitely occurred, it is unlikely to produce a winner without additional reinforcements via trade and free agency.
OK, so how does the immediate future of the club look after three months of hot stove tinkering? Well, not a heck of lot different than it did when they were losing 99 games last year.
In general, I agree, "which is both bogus and sad", to quote the great Wayne Campbell.
There is, I believe, some small room for optimism, but there's no question the offseason has been, in general, a disappointment. Especially for a team that barely avoided 100 losses. Oh, that's right, I forgot: it "doesn't matter how many games we lose 'cuz we're rebuilding".
Got it.
Starting Pitching: Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton are in, pending some late wheeling-and-dealing; Dan McCutchen and Kevin Hart will go mano-a-mano for the last spot. Jose Ascanio has a shot to step in later during the year. Brad Lincoln is probably the only guy in the system with a chance to crack the rotation sometime during the season.
My grousing aside, the starting rotation might be the one spot on the roster that could significantly alter the look of the team for the better if/when a trade is consummated sometime during the 2010 season. There would seem to be a small but significant surplus of starting pitching on hand, and one would think that veteran lefthanders Zach Duke and especially Paul Maholm would be extremely desireable to many teams. Brad Lincoln will be two years removed from his Tommy John surgery, and he has little left to prove in the minors. He'll be at Indianapolis until June to avoid Super-Two arbitration status, but unless he implodes totally, he'll bring his Blyleven-esque curveball to Pittsburgh no later than the All-Star break. Daniel McCutchen would figure to have the inside track on at least the fifth starter's spot---I personally think he's better than that---but he looked at least capable in limited action late in 2009. I believe Kevin Hart is better suited for the bullpen (assuming he can handle even that much) but he's a big, strong, hard-throwing guy and maybe the lightbulb will come on for him. If nothing else he is depth that can be called upon. Therefore, a Pirates starting pitcher can---and should be---dealt in exchange for hitting, ideally a corner outfielder with at least some power. Unless a buyer's market veteran comes on board late in the offseason, which is certainly a viable option in the current economy. More on the outfield below....
Bullpen: Bye-bye, Matt Capps and Jesse Chavez. 2010's firemen look like Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan, Javier Lopez, Steven Jackson, Chris Jakubauskas, the loser of the McCutchen-Hart mashup (although McC could end up at Indy if they want to work him as a starter), and Jose Ascanio. Hanrahan and Meek will audition for the closers' role, although closer-by-committee could well be in the cards for 2010. There's a cast of thousands waiting if a seventh spot opens up.
I'm honestly not as worried about the 'pen as I was after John Grabow was traded. At least, I'm not as worried if Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan are healthy. Javier Lopez---one of the few offseason signings to this point who could have any real impact in 2010---will do nicely as a LOOGY if he is the 2006-2008 BoSox version and not the 2009 edition who got shelled, then demoted. I'm guessing he's more the former than the latter. If we can find one more quasi-useful lefthander from among Donnie Veal and this year's spring training invitees, I believe our 'pen will be effective if not overwhelming. Our relief corps would go from effective to very strong if Octavio Dotel signs with the Pirates, as has been rumored to be in the offing.
Infield: It should be Garrett Jones, Akinori Iwamura, the winner of the Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby cage match, and Andy LaRoche. What it will look like in August, if Iwamura goes and Pedro Alvarez arrives, is anybody's guess. Jeff Clements may get a shot at first, although we consider him a long shot. But the suits love him, so we'll see; he and Jones create a crowd. There's not much help in the upper levels yet; the cavalry is still a couple of seasons away from PNC.
That's not a bad starting infield, though still light on the hitting unless Crosby can somehow recapture his previous form and/or Cedeno has a career year and/or LaRoche starts looking more like he did while in the Dodgers system and less like he has for most of his major league career to date. Still, all the players GW mentioned are good or better than good with the glove, and if Jones continues his Roy Hobbs impression, ya never know.
I'd really like to see Iwamura at least be offered a contract to stay, though if LaRoche can handle second base, the best long term solution might be to move him there to make way for Alvarez. Alvarez, however, is no sure thing himself, as it remains to be seen whether he will eat himself off third base or not. In which case we have a logjam at first, unless Jones moves to right---which would figure to be Jose Tabata's position, unless---well, see below. Meanwhile I don't expect much from Pat Clement, but he was a first rounder once upon a time, and there's some thought that his mostly disappointing big league audition to this point in time can be blamed on his knee injuries. We'll see.
Catcher: Assuming they hold on to Ryan Doumit, he and Jason Jaramillo are set. But the question is: Can Doumit give them 135 games behind the plate? His history suggests not. So a position that was deep enough last year is iffy this season with Robby Diaz gone. We expect to see the Pirates pick up a veteran, good glove guy along the lines of Raul Chavez to split time with Eric Kratz at Indy. Minor league depth consists mainly of Tony Sanchez.
You could do worse than Jaramillo as a starting catcher, though he is better suited to be either a strong number two or perhaps a platoon semi-starter, but Jaramillo could be our number one sooner rather than later. It looks like the suits are determined to trade Doumit, in which case their axing of Robinzon Diaz (since inked by Detroit) is very strange, since he would have been no worse than Jaramillo's backup. What troubles me about moves like this one (if it happens) and the Iwamura acquisition is that they don't solve anything longer term; rather, they give us short-term fixes when no longer term options are on the horizon anywhere in the organization. Which means we would figure to have to go outside the organization, either in trade or free agency. Except that Pittsburgh is where free agents don't go even to die---well, not bigger name veterans, anyway---and the team does not yet have enough fungible minor leaguers who could be turned into big league veterans via trade on short notice.
Maybe the other shoe is about to drop, but ya gotta wonder.
Outfield: Start with Andrew McCutchen. End with Andrew McCutchen. Lastings Milledge will start, but has to keep improving and show some power. Who knows where Jones will end up? Rule 5 pick John Raynor will be all that Brandon Moss can handle; that should be one of the storylines of Spring Training. Jose Tabata could pop up in June, and Nyjo clone Gorkys Hernandez shouldn't be far behind. All in all, a competitive spot for Pittsburgh with a lot of possible end points.
McCutchen is the crown jewel, though I still want to see him hit like he did in 2009 over an entire season. But he's still far and away the best we've got even if he regresses with the stick. So no worries there. Milledge definitely said and did all the right things upon coming here, so maybe he's grown up a bit, but unless I'm mistaken, isn't he arbitration-eligible after 2010? In which case, why was he acquired in exchange for much-cheaper-for-far-longer Nyjer Morgan? Yet again: a short term acquisition who would seem a problematic fit, if at all, for the longer term.
However, there is more depth in the outfield than at some other spots, so Milledge might be auditioning for other teams, anyway, no matter how well he does in 2010. I really like John Raynor and believe he will beat out Brandon Moss in Bradenton. Moss might still make the team, but would surely figure to be on the next train out of town once Tabata is promoted, perhaps as soon as June though more likely in August. Tabata, another guy I really like, is not, however, a true power hitter. I am very concerned about the kind of pressure he might be facing from Pirates fandom and maybe even the front office. I believe he will be a Jose Cruz Sr type of hitter, ie, high .200s to low .300s with lots of doubles and 80-90 RBI, but probably not more than 15 HR most years. There's nothing wrong with that kind of production, but Cruz Sr was also an excellent basestealer and defensive player and Tabata is not overwhelmingly fast nor exceptional with the glove. He might be, in other words, the classic "tweener". Here's hoping he's more Cruz Sr than Melky Cabrera.
Count me as one who does not expect much, if anything, from Gorkys Hernandez. I'm looking further down in the minors at players like Robbie Grossman and Starling Marte.
Bench: Delwyn Young. Jason Jaramillo. Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby loser. Brandon Moss/John Raynor winner. We think Ramon Vazquez, despite his $2M deal, is on thin ice. Steve Pearce and Neil Walker have options left, so we expect them to be at Indy. That final spot on the pine could easily be filled with a late-signee from the free agent market that can play the corners and has a little pop.
Let's hope there will be a veteran, "professional hitter" type who will be signed before we go to Bradenton, for professional and competitive integrity if nothing else. I liked Marlon Byrd a lot for this role, but he just joined the Cubs on a 3 year deal. There are still a number of attractive options out there.
Overall: Lots of questions remain. They're still a couple of years from filling the gaps with internal talent, and don't seem likely to bring in a difference maker until the dots are connected, so any dealing will be for prospects, not players.
The offense counts on Jones, Milledge, LaRoche, and Doumit producing and a shortstop that can put up at least Jack Wilson-like numbers. The pitching should be OK, but the lack of an ace stopper hurts. Capps was going sooner or later; so it's time to get the bullpen merry-go-round in gear.
The pieces are slowly starting to arrive, but not soon enough to make the 2010 club a contender.
Adding Dotel and a productive veteran hitter would make this team much better on the field at PNC while we wait for the farm system to hit full production. I remain skeptical that current ownership and management will actually step up and make intelligent investments in a few carefully-chosen homegrown and veteran free agent players, either now or in the future. Just saying "the kids will save us" is NOT enough and certainly does not, in and of itself, constitute a coherent and honest attempt at fielding a winning team in Pittsburgh. While real improvement in our minor league system was the organization's biggest need, and while that real improvement has definitely occurred, it is unlikely to produce a winner without additional reinforcements via trade and free agency.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
The New Year Bucs
OK, so how does the immediate future of the club look after three months of hot stove tinkering? Well, not a heck of lot different than it did when they were losing 99 games last year.
Starting Pitching: Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton are in, pending some late wheeling-and-dealing; Dan McCutchen and Kevin Hart will go mano-a-mano for the last spot. Jose Ascanio has a shot to step in later during the year. Brad Lincoln is probably the only guy in the system with a chance to crack the rotation sometime during the season.
Bullpen: Bye-bye, Matt Capps and Jesse Chavez. 2010's firemen look like Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan, Javier Lopez, Steven Jackson, Chris Jakubauskas, the loser of the McCutchen-Hart mashup (although McC could end up at Indy if they want to work him as a starter), and Jose Ascanio. Hanrahan and Meek will audition for the closers' role, although closer-by-committee could well be in the cards for 2010. There's a cast of thousands waiting if a seventh spot opens up.
Infield: It should be Garrett Jones, Akinori Iwamura, the winner of the Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby cage match, and Andy LaRoche. What it will look like in August, if Iwamura goes and Pedro Alvarez arrives, is anybody's guess. Jeff Clements may get a shot at first, although we consider him a long shot. But the suits love him, so we'll see; he and Jones create a crowd. There's not much help in the upper levels yet; the cavalry is still a couple of seasons away from PNC.
Catcher: Assuming they hold on to Ryan Doumit, he and Jason Jaramillo are set. But the question is: Can Doumit give them 135 games behind the plate? His history suggests not. So a position that was deep enough last year is iffy this season with Robby Diaz gone. We expect to see the Pirates pick up a veteran, good glove guy along the lines of Raul Chavez to split time with Eric Kratz at Indy. Minor league depth consists mainly of Tony Sanchez.
Outfield: Start with Andrew McCutchen. End with Andrew McCutchen. Lastings Milledge will start, but has to keep improving and show some power. Who knows where Jones will end up? Rule 5 pick John Raynor will be all that Brandon Moss can handle; that should be one of the storylines of Spring Training. Jose Tabata could pop up in June, and Nyjo clone Gorkys Hernandez shouldn't be far behind. All in all, a competitive spot for Pittsburgh with a lot of possible end points.
Bench: Delwyn Young. Jason Jaramillo. Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby loser. Brandon Moss/John Raynor winner. We think Ramon Vazquez, despite his $2M deal, is on thin ice. Steve Pearce and Neil Walker have options left, so we expect them to be at Indy. That final spot on the pine could easily be filled with a late-signee from the free agent market that can play the corners and has a little pop.
Overall: Lots of questions remain. They're still a couple of years from filling the gaps with internal talent, and don't seem likely to bring in a difference maker until the dots are connected, so any dealing will be for prospects, not players.
The offense counts on Jones, Milledge, LaRoche, and Doumit producing and a shortstop that can put up at least Jack Wilson-like numbers. The pitching should be OK, but the lack of an ace stopper hurts. Capps was going sooner or later; so it's time to get the bullpen merry-go-round in gear.
The pieces are slowly starting to arrive, but not soon enough to make the 2010 club a contender.
Starting Pitching: Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton are in, pending some late wheeling-and-dealing; Dan McCutchen and Kevin Hart will go mano-a-mano for the last spot. Jose Ascanio has a shot to step in later during the year. Brad Lincoln is probably the only guy in the system with a chance to crack the rotation sometime during the season.
Bullpen: Bye-bye, Matt Capps and Jesse Chavez. 2010's firemen look like Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan, Javier Lopez, Steven Jackson, Chris Jakubauskas, the loser of the McCutchen-Hart mashup (although McC could end up at Indy if they want to work him as a starter), and Jose Ascanio. Hanrahan and Meek will audition for the closers' role, although closer-by-committee could well be in the cards for 2010. There's a cast of thousands waiting if a seventh spot opens up.
Infield: It should be Garrett Jones, Akinori Iwamura, the winner of the Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby cage match, and Andy LaRoche. What it will look like in August, if Iwamura goes and Pedro Alvarez arrives, is anybody's guess. Jeff Clements may get a shot at first, although we consider him a long shot. But the suits love him, so we'll see; he and Jones create a crowd. There's not much help in the upper levels yet; the cavalry is still a couple of seasons away from PNC.
Catcher: Assuming they hold on to Ryan Doumit, he and Jason Jaramillo are set. But the question is: Can Doumit give them 135 games behind the plate? His history suggests not. So a position that was deep enough last year is iffy this season with Robby Diaz gone. We expect to see the Pirates pick up a veteran, good glove guy along the lines of Raul Chavez to split time with Eric Kratz at Indy. Minor league depth consists mainly of Tony Sanchez.
Outfield: Start with Andrew McCutchen. End with Andrew McCutchen. Lastings Milledge will start, but has to keep improving and show some power. Who knows where Jones will end up? Rule 5 pick John Raynor will be all that Brandon Moss can handle; that should be one of the storylines of Spring Training. Jose Tabata could pop up in June, and Nyjo clone Gorkys Hernandez shouldn't be far behind. All in all, a competitive spot for Pittsburgh with a lot of possible end points.
Bench: Delwyn Young. Jason Jaramillo. Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby loser. Brandon Moss/John Raynor winner. We think Ramon Vazquez, despite his $2M deal, is on thin ice. Steve Pearce and Neil Walker have options left, so we expect them to be at Indy. That final spot on the pine could easily be filled with a late-signee from the free agent market that can play the corners and has a little pop.
Overall: Lots of questions remain. They're still a couple of years from filling the gaps with internal talent, and don't seem likely to bring in a difference maker until the dots are connected, so any dealing will be for prospects, not players.
The offense counts on Jones, Milledge, LaRoche, and Doumit producing and a shortstop that can put up at least Jack Wilson-like numbers. The pitching should be OK, but the lack of an ace stopper hurts. Capps was going sooner or later; so it's time to get the bullpen merry-go-round in gear.
The pieces are slowly starting to arrive, but not soon enough to make the 2010 club a contender.
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