Things We Wonder...

• The Pirates traded for RHP Kyle Kaminska, who kicked butt at Bradenton (2-0, 1.69), Altoona (1-0, 3.00) and in the Arizona Fall League (3-1, 1.61). Then they dealt him to Boston for RHP Zach Stewart, who the FO DFA'ed and lost to the Chicago White Sox. Was there a point?
• Clint Hurdle loves him some good glove, bad stick SS Clint Barmes. But he wouldn't play good glove, possibly not-as-bad stick back-ups Pedro Ciriaco in 2011 and Jordy Mercer last season. Maybe if they came from the Rockies...
• The Bucs brought in 1B/OF Brad Hawpe and invited him to camp. He's behind Gaby Sanchez and probably Jerry Sands at first and, well, everyone in the outfield. Oh, he played for the Rockies...
• Since Jose Tabata & Travis Snider are out of options while Jerry Sands and Alex Presley each have one remaining, have the decisions for the outfield already been made?
• Maybe in the bullpen, too - Chris Leroux, Vin Mazzaro and Bryan Morris are also out of options.
• Will Jeff Karstens or Francisco Liriano get first dibs on the clubhouse tub?
• With no apparent SS replacement for Clint Barmes in 2014 (and he doesn't have an option clause), would Pittsburgh be better served by having Jordy Mercer get regular time at Indy this year, at least early on, especially if he's not going to see any appreciable field time in Pittsburgh? He still has a pair of options.
• This is AJ Burnett's walk year; can the Pirate budget fit him in for a 2014 return if he performs equally as well this season as last? Remember, he'll be 37 in 2014.
• In that vein, one thing we don't wonder about is if they can afford 34 year old Wandy Rodriguez. The Pirates are on the hook for $8.5M of his 2013 salary and $7.5M of 2014 (if he vests his option) thanks to Houston's ante. That's a fair price if he continues to perform better than league average, which he's done the past five seasons.

Francisco Liriano

Francisco Liriano from San Cristoba in the Dominican Republic signed with the San Francisco Giants as a 16 year old in 2000. He was an outfielder, but moved to the mound after the Giants found out he tossed a mid-90s fastball. “The Giants told me they would give me more money if I pitch, so I said I would,” Liriano told the NY Times Michael Schmidt. “But they had never seen me pitch. I didn’t like it, but all I wanted to do was play."

San Fran sent him stateside, and after four months of bullpen sessions, the 17 year old made his pro debut for the Arizona League Rookie Giants, the West Coast version of the GCL. The young lefty went 5-4/3.63 with 67 K in 62 IP, a pretty strong start. Liriano touched 96, and Baseball America ranked him as the Giants’ 14th best prospect in his debut season.

In 2002, the G-Men moved him along to Hagerstown in the Low A Sally League, and he put up a 3-6/3.49 count with 85 K in 80 frames. His heater was consistently in the 93 MPH range, and his secondary pitches were coming along well for a converted OF, jumping him up to a #4 rating by BA. But a career-long problem made its first appearance as he was shut down late in July with shoulder problems.

His wing gave out completely in 2003. He worked just nine innings, plus a handful of late-season rehab starts in the Instructional League, where he looked strong. Liriano was then welcomed to the baseball biz when he, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser were shipped to the Twins for AJ Pierzynski and cash. Looking back, Brian Sabean would probably like a mulligan on that one (the Giants released Pierzynski after a season).

Liriano started out at High A Fort Myers in the Florida League for the Twins. He went 6-7/4.00 with 125 punchouts in 117 innings. He stepped up to AA New Britain in the Eastern League for seven starts, and did pretty well, going 3-2/3.18 with 45 K in 39-2/3 frames. He showed a big hook and his slider was becoming his plus pitch, so it was a pretty good year, especially after the injury-lost 2003 year. BA kept up the love, listing him as the Twins #5 prospect.

2005 was his breakout year. Starting at New Britain, he went 3-5/3.64 with 92 whiffs in 76-2/3 innings. Then he advanced to AAA Rochester of the International League, and put up a 9-2/1.78 line with 112 K in 91 IP and a WHIP of 0.88. Liriano was named the IL Rookie of the Year. He led all minor league pitchers in strikeouts, with 204 in just 167-2/3 frames, or 11 per game.Minny noticed and called him up in September; where his ERA was high but he collected 33 strikeouts in 23-2/3 innings.

The Cisco Kid was blazing along with a 95 MPH heater and a killer slider. BA rated him the best prospect in the Twins’ system and the Eastern League, and the second best (after Delmon Young) in the IL. John Sickels picked him as the #2 pitching prospect in baseball.

In 2006, Liriano opened the season in the bullpen, a move he didn't exactly endorse, before joining the Twins rotation in late May. He was on fire, getting off to a 12-3/2.19 start and was named Rookie of the Month twice in the AL. The Cisco Kid was named to the All-Star game by Ozzie Guillén to replace José Contreras. Talk of "The Franchise" winning both the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year filled the media as he finished the season by mowing down 144 batters in 121 IP.

Too good to be true? You betcha.

The Twin City staff put him on the DL in early August with elbow inflammation problems, partially of his own doing as he tried to pitch through soreness through July without notify management that he had an issue. Minnesota diagnosed him with a mild elbow ligament strain and shoulder weakness, but after a layoff and one September start, Liriano had Tommy John surgery to replace his ulnar collateral ligament. He missed all of 2007, and some mark the surgery as the turning point of his career.

In 2008, he got off to a slow start with Minnesota and was sent to the bushes to knock off the rust. Working for Rochester, he went 10-2/3.28 and was called back to the show. Liriano finished up 6-4/3.91, not a bad bounce back after TJ surgery. But for the first time, the lefty had fewer whiffs than innings (even though he still had a solid 7.9 per game and would come back strong in future years), and his control became a problem, with nearly four walks per nine innings.

Liriano's following season was completely forgettable. He went 5-13/5.80, and all his indicators were down. He lost a couple or three miles of velocity off his heater, he gave up more hits than innings pitched for the first (and only) time in his career, gave up 1.4 HRs per nine and walked 4.3 batters per game while K'ing eight. Also for the first time since his rookie 2005 campaign, his FIP (4.87) and ERA (5.80) showed a big spread, a phenomena that would hound him almost every following season.

There were some questions about Liriano's conditioning and rehab, so during the 2009 offseason, Liriano returned to the DR to play winter ball. He came to camp lighter, and gave the staff the sense that he was ready to go. The Twins considered using Liriano as a closer to replace the injured Joe Nathan and save his arm, but opted to add him to the rotation. Pretty good move.

Liriano tossed up a 14-10/3.62 slash in 2010, with 201 whiffs in 191-1/3 IP. His fastball was back and all his peripherals showed improvement - K's, walks, HRs, and hits. The walks and groundball rate showed the most dramatic upticks - he cut the walks down by a third and his grounder rate jumped from 40% to 54%. He was named the American League Pitcher of the Month for April to start the year, and ended as the 2010 AL Comeback Player of the Year.

But he couldn't come up with back-to-back big seasons. The lefty went 9-10/5.09 in 2011, with his whiff rate and fastball velocity both down. To make matters worse, he was on the DL from late May to mid-June with shoulder inflammation; he came back again, but in late August had a shoulder strain, pretty much ending the campaign for him but for a couple of late season mop-ups. Liriano did have a moment, though - on May 3rd, he no-hit the Oakland As 1-0 (walking six). Not only did he pick up a no-no, but it was (and is) his only MLB complete game.

2012 was more of the same. Minnesota flipped him to the White Sox at the deadline, and he threw equally poorly for both clubs. His line was 6-12/5.34, and for the second straight year, he walked five guys per game. The groundball rate dropped to 44% and he surrendered 19 HR. His velocity did pick up a tick, and Loriano struck out better than a batter per frame again, but not enough to get either team to invite him back into the fold.

So the Bucs signed him as a free agent in December, but the whole thing went on ice after an arm injury. They're reported to have resigned him, with some of the money flipped from guaranteed to incentive-based earnings. The FO overpaid at $12.75M, and the two year deal was twice as long than you'd expect for a bounce back guy. But that's the way of life for small revenue teams, especially ones that don't win - they have to overpay even flawed guys if they have enough upside to lure them to town.

Make no mistake, Liriano does have upside, sprinkled liberally with frustrating inconsistency. His fastball sits in the 91-94 range, which is sweet for a lefty. His slider is a plus pitch, and he throws a league average or slightly better change up. His K's still come fairly often, though the five walks per game doesn't cut it. But stuff isn't his problem.

Maybe health issues have kept him from becoming consistent. Before his TJ surgery, Liriano was 12-5/2.65 ERA; afterward, 40-48/4.68. That's a small sample size, but suggestive.

He handles lefties much better than righties; his lifetime slash against LH is .227/.301/.296; against righties .254/.335/.409. That's not too surprising. Liriano's slider is his go-to pitch, and it's much more effective against lefties. His change up is the pitch he shows RH, and it's not nearly as dominant. So that may play into his problems.

The Cisco Kid, as we mentioned before, has a sizable spread between his ERA (4.40) and FIP (3.75). His ERA has bettered his FIP just once in his career, in his standout 2006 campaign. It's lasted so long that's it hard to blame the gap on sampling size or old fashioned bad luck. His home run, walk and ground ball rates, along with LOB%, have been at or below league average every season with the exception of his 2006 and 2010 years, so maybe FIP overvalues strikeouts, understates walks or a bit of both.

The Pirates are aware that he's inconsistent with his mechanics, and the LOB % might indicate that Liriano could use some work on his stretch. Those are the early tweaks for Ray Searage to address, once he finally gets the lefty in camp. His conditioning is a question that won't be answered until Liriano returns from his arm injury.

And conditioning is fairly key to Liriano's performance. From what we gather from his medical reports, he has a chronically weak shoulder that requires a regular regimen to keep in shape. The shoulder stress is the link to his elbow problems. So hopefully he's following his doc's advice and working that wing.

Liriano is guaranteed to start once he's healthy; we'll have to wait and see how Clint Hurdle slots him. We'd expect him to pitch fourth if AJ works Opening Day to space the L-R sequence. For all the reasons we listed above, he's a risk. But there are reasons to like him, too.

At 29, Liriano's still in his prime. He's moving to a park that's lefty-friendly, especially regarding the long ball. Liriano only gave up one homer against a lefty last year, but 18 against righties; many of those balls die at the Notch in Pittsburgh. He should get a boost from moving to the NL; the senior circuit ERA is about .35 runs lower without the DH. And there's the karma: the stars align right for Liriano every three years, and if past history holds true, he's due in 2013.

Liriano Signs

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that the Bucs have reached a deal with LHP Francisco Liriano, 29, who was out with a bum right arm. He says the deal will match the original two year/$12.75M contract they had agreed to last month, but would be adjusted during the first season for time missed. The Bucs haven't announced the signing yet, and we assume a very thorough physical is planned before they will.

He didn't give specifics, but we'd guess that it was rewritten to flip some guaranteed money to inning or starts based incentives. The lefty brings some upside and experience. While his counting numbers haven't been very strong, his peripherals suggest that he could contribute as a mid-rotation guy.

The Pirates focused on his 48% career groundball rate and nine Ks per game as indicators, though those numbers are countered by his four walks per nine innings. At any rate, the FO is betting two years on the hope that he performs to his advanced metrics rather than to his ERA.

Liriano will join a rotation that today looks like AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald and Jeff Karstens. It likely takes Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson out of the mix - or puts the oft injured Karstens back in the bullpen to save some wear on his bod. By July, the Pirates will also have Charlie Morton, who is recovering from TJ surgery, and perhaps Gerrit Cole, who they now have no reason to rush, available for duty.

For that matter, they don't have to rush Liriano, either. This is the deepest staff of the Huntington era, and that's a necessity. Not only do they have some insurance against the inevitable injuries, but also for the question marks, like James McDonald & Liriano's ability to bounce back and JK & Charlie Morton's health.

That depth may come into play quickly. If the Cisco Kid isn't ready, Karstens and one of the kids will start the season in the rotation. This year's schedule is relatively busy at the start, and the Pirates will need all five guys to pitch the second time around.

The staff doesn't have any aces, but it does have some potentially solid mid-rotation types and numbers this year, and the pipeline should be ready to provide a couple of elite arms in the foreseeable future. And it does show that the Bucs realize the price of business is going up. With the signing, their 40-man payroll is sniffing at the $80M mark, with the team on the hook for $68M.

Bucs Still Shopping Jones?

With Garrett Jones signing, Tom Singer of MLB.com speculates via tweet "With the Red Sox still shopping for a lefty-hitting 1B-OF -- ring any bells? -- you have to wonder if the Pirates will make another run at Iglesias."

He's referring to Cuban SS prospect Jose Iglesias, 23, a great gloveman who wasn't available to the Pirates earlier, but now may be since the BoSox inked Stephen Drew after the Hanny deal. AA shortstop Xander Bogaerts is maybe the #1 player in their minor league system, so Iglesias could be in play now. Mike Napoli's recent deal with Beantown still leaves the Red Sox a lefty bat short, tho they'd prefer to deal a guy like C Jarrod Saltalamacchia rather than Inglesias.

For the Bucs, they'd still require a solid return for Jones; Iglesias alone wouldn't be enough. Jones is probably at his highest value now, and offers two more years of team control through arbitration. Entering his age 32 season, he isn't a long-term piece of the Pirate puzzle, and Pittsburgh has been stockpiling guys to replace him if a opportunity to deal does come up.

But he does have 87 bombs in his four year Bucco career, and Pittsburgh doesn't have much thump in its sticks, so Jones may have more short-term value to the Pirates than he does to other clubs. His status as a platoon guy and his limited defensive value may make him a difficult sell for a solid return. But if someone's looking for a final piece and are willing to overpay some for it, the FO will - and should - be all ears.
 

• Singer also tweeted that the Liriano deal isn't dead yet; the Pirates continue to seek more starting pitching, which will be a backburner storyline until April and maybe beyond.
• Who is Pittsburgh's nominee in the "One Hit Wonder" category posted by David Schoenfield in The Sweet Spot blog? The answer is LHP Ollie Perez, who looked like a number one as a 22 year old in 2004 and now is working out of the bullpen for Seattle. The Mets, btw, paid him about $45M over five years for 29 wins and 520 IP.
• Dave Laurila of Fangraphs interviewed Bucco backstop from the good ol' days, Spanky LaValliere. He has some interesting stuff on the pitchers he caught, both in and out of Pittsburgh.
• Saturday was a bad day for MLB, with both Stan the Man and Earl Weaver passing on to the stadium in the sky.

Stan the Man

Maybe the greatest ballplayer to claim Western Pennsylvania as home, Stanislaw Franciszek Musial, better known as Stan the Man, passed away yesterday at the age of 92.

Musial was the son of an immigrant Polish millworker who raised his family in Donora. Stan was old school in every way; he married his high school sweetheart, Lillian Labash, from Donora HS (now Ringgold) and stayed married for almost 72 years until she passed on in May.

In 1936, at the age of 15, Musial played for the Donora Zincs, a local semi-pro team, advancing from batboy to starting pitcher. Musial lore has it that the multi-talented Dragon athlete (he was called "The Donora Greyhound ") turned down a basketball scholarship from Pitt, against his dad's wishes, to pursue his baseball career in 1938, beginning his trek at Class D Williamson, WV.

He started out pitching and a spare OF, but in 1940 landed on his shoulder diving after a ball (he was 18-5/2.32 before the injury, but couldn't find the strike zone very often) and was converted full-time to the outfield, finishing the season with a .311 BA.

In 1941, he hit .326 in Class C while learning to play the OF, was moved up to AA where he banged out a .326 average, and was called up to St. Louis in September, batting .426. He and his patented crouched lefty stance (White Sox HOF pitcher Ted Lyons described it as "a kid peeking around the corner to see if the cops were coming") were in the show to stay.

Before Stan the Man - he got his nickname in Brooklyn when the Dodger fans yelled out "here comes da man" - hung up his spikes 22 years later in 1963, he led the Cards to four World Series (and three titles), and collected seven NL batting titles, three MVPs, two MLB Player of the Year Awards and 24 All-Star appearances.

For modern stat heads, he put up a career WAR of 139.4 and won seven OPS titles. His lifetime OPS is .979, which converts to a 159 OPS+. And all that with a missing year during his prime - in 1945, he served in the Navy.

Carl Erskine, a Brooklyn pitcher, said he went after "...Stan by throwing him my best pitch ... and then backing up third." Preacher Roe, who tossed for both the Bucs and da Bums, had a different game plan against Musial. "I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base."

Musial held 55 records when he retired. Elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility with over 93% of the vote, his HOF plaque simply says: "Holds many National League records ..." because the Hall couldn't fit all of his accomplishments on his bronze calling card. The Man was selected to the MLB All-Century Team in 1999.

His lifetime slash was .331/.417/.559. Musial never struck out more than 46 times in a season; in his career, he whiffed 696 times (5.5%) and walked 1,599 times (12.6%). The Man even laid down 35 successful sac bunts; imagine a middle-of-the-order guy with that number today.

He played for just one team, the Cards, in his 22 MLB years, and he and Red Schoendienst were said to have swayed Budweiser owner August Busch into buying the team in 1953, guaranteeing that the franchise stayed in Saint Louis.

The Man went 14 straight seasons playing 140+ games. In 1947, he was diagnosed with appendicitis and tonsillitis in May; he didn't have either removed until after the season, and hit .312 while playing 149 games. He had an 895 consecutive game streak until sidelined with a broken shoulder in 1957.

Musial was such a balanced ballplayer that he got 1,815 hits at home and 1,815 on the road, and finished with 1,951 RBI and scored 1,949 runs.

Not only did he leave a legacy of great baseball, but he was the epitome of a gentleman. He never turned down an autograph request, and in fact carried around pre-signed baseball cards to hand out, at the suggestion of his bud, John Wayne. There was no sniff of scandal or pretentiousness around the Man, and he was so beloved that Albert Pujols rejected the title of "El Hombre," saying only Musial deserved that title. It carried over on the field, too - he was never ejected from a game, and he played 3,026 of them.

President Obama awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Musial in 2011, the highest award a civilian can receive. Donora named a bridge after him. And St. Louis adored him so much that they put not one, but two statues of him around their park. One says "Here stands baseball's perfect knight." And that's just about right.

There are only two arguments he's part of - was he, Ted Williams or Joe DiMaggio the best player of their era, and was Stan or Carnegie's Honus Wagner the best player from the area? Maybe they'll settle the debate on the Field of Dreams; it's for sure all four are playing there now.

Jones Signs...Some Housekeeping Remains

As expected when Garrett Jones and the FO didn't exchange arb figures yesterday, a deal was in the works. AP announced that that Jones struck a one year, $4.5M contract with the Pirates. That figure is just about on the nose for his estimated arb value of $4.4M as estimated by Matt Schwartz of MLB Trade Rumors. He doubled his 2012 salary of $2.25M, and still has two years of arbitration remaining as a Super Two.

Jones, 31, had a career year, batting .274/.317/.516 with 27 homers and 86 RBI as the Pirates primary clean-up hitter, and was rumored to be on several teams trade lists. The Bucs were said to want top value for him, and by signing him proved that he had high value to them. The only question is whether the platoon player - he's weak against lefties - had an outlier season or finally figured it out, helped by Buc management limiting his exposure to lefties.

With both he and Gaby Sanchez ($1.75M) signed, Clint Robinson and Jerry Sands, both whom have options remaining, could potentially start the season at Indy; at least one of them is redundant now. Robinson scores points as a lefty off the bench; Sands is more versatile as a 1B/OF. Where that leaves Matt Hague, who is pretty well out of the picture, and Matt Curry is squarely in no-man's land, depending on the Robinson/Sands assignments.

There are two guys left to deal with, Neil Walker and James McDonald. There's a pretty sizeable gap between what they requested and the Bucs offered. The Kid asked for $3.6M and was offered $3M; J-Mac asked for $3.4M and was offered $2.65M.

McDonald's midpoint of $3.025M is close to his predicted value of $3M, so there's a good chance he and the club may meet around there. Walker will be a little more testy. His predicted value was $2.9M, which the Pirates beat by a smidge. He may end up with a hearing, as he's entering his first year of Super Two status and so is setting a baseline for his paycheck through 2016.

As Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects pointed out, that figure will mean millions of dollars one way or the other over the life of his arbitration years. Whether the Bucs, or for that matter Walker, accept the midpoint of $3.3M will be the arb season storyline in Pittsburgh

Arb Numbers, Hawpe, 2013 Wins, &...

Arb numbers and some more...

• Gaby Sanchez signed a one year, $1.75M deal with the Pirates, avoiding arbitration and getting just about what his arbitration figure was projected to be for this season.
• Neil Walker filed for $3.6M; the Buc counter is $3M and the midpoint is $3.3M. James McDonald filed for $3.4M; the Pirate offer is $2.65M with a midpoint of $3.025M, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Nothing on Garrett Jones yet; maybe they're trying to iron out a deal. 
• The AP's Will Graves tweeted that Jeff Karsten's contract is guaranteed for $2.5M, but there's another $1M in inning-based incentives available, bringing him more in range of his $3.8M estimated arb value if he can stay on the hill and out of the tub.
• Hey! The Pirates just inked another 1B/OF; pretty soon they'll be able to platoon not just by game, but by inning. Brad Hawpe, 34, signed a minor league deal with an invite to camp. He had TJ surgery in 2011, and played just 35 games in AA last year before being released at his own request. Clint Hurdle keeps having flashbacks to 2007 and Coors Field. It inspired this observation by Charlie Wilmoth at Bucs Dugout: "All MLB Teams Are Run By Idiots."
• Hawpe joins RHPs Jamison Taillon & Luis Hernadez, along with C Ali Soltis, as non-roster invitees to spring training.
• Bucs in the WBC: Ivan DeJesus, INF - Puerto Rico; Jason Grilli, P - Italy; Chris Leroux, P, and Russell Martin, C - Canada; Wandy Rodriguez, P - Dominican Republic; Ali Solis, C - Mexico; Jameson Taillon, P - Canada and Stefan Welch, INF - Australia. (if you're real curious, Altoona had 13 former players and a coach selected). The rosters are preliminary, but shouldn't change much for the March tourney.
• The Red Sox signed Hanny for 1 year/$7.04M, the salary figure about as predicted, reported Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors. 
• Sabremetric dudes are not impressed with the 2013 Buccos. David Manel at Bucs Dugout has them at 73 wins, as does Dave Szymborski  from House of Cramps.  
• RHP Zach Stewart, recently acquired for Kyle Kaminska from Boston, was DFA'ed to clear a 40-man slot for JK.

Arb Rolls On...

The Bucs had eight arb eligible guys heading into the season. RHP Charlie Morton (1yr/$2M) signed a new contract, RHP Jeff Karstens was non-tendered and then later inked as a FA (1yr/$2.5M), and RHP Chris Resop (to Oakland) and RHP Hanny (to Boston) were dealt.

1B/OF Garrett Jones, 2B Neil Walker, RHP James McDonald and 1B Gaby Sanchez are left, and today they filed for arbitration hearings, which begin in February. It's not too uncommon - 133 players filed overall out of 213 eligible in October, and most will settle now that there's a deadline. Last year, Pittsburgh also had eight arb-eligible players and signed seven, with Jones going the distance and losing. The FO generally likes to work out contracts rather than take the arb route.

Per the process, the four will trade figures with the Pirates on Friday. They get to negotiate until, and even during, any hearing date. The figures will be interesting - Matt Schwartz of MLBTrade Rumors projected the arb awards to be $4.4M for Jones, $3M for McDonald, $2.9M for Walker and and $1.8M for Sanchez. The Kid and Jones might both prove thorny to sign if the Bucs are looking for a hometown discount, so we'll see how that plays out. Both Morton (est. $2.6M) and Karstens (est. $3.8M) signed well below the MLBTR projections.

They might as well get used to the process now. Morton has one year of arb left, Sanchez, Jones (Super 2) and McDonald have two years and Walker (Super 2) still has three years remaining, per Cot's Contracts. RHP Mark Melancon, OF Travis Snider, RHP Chris Leroux and RHP Vin Mazzaro could join that class in 2014.

• We forgot to mention yesterday that Jason Grilli will pitch for Team Italy in the WBC. 
• David Manel of Bucs Dugout has an estimate of Pirate offensive production in 2013 based on ZIPS and Bill James projections. ZIPS has a falloff and James an improvement, mainly based on differing outcomes for Pedro and Starling Marte. 
• Arb isn't the only deadline creeping up next month. Pitchers and catchers report to Bradenton on February 11th.
• Jo Jo Reyes, who pitched at Indy last year and signed during the off season with the Angels, is being released from his contract so that he can pitch in Korea.

ZIPS, Bill James, BA Top Ten and Notes

ZIPping around the news:

• ZIPS projections are out. Dan Szymborski released them at Fangraph's this year, and they don't look all that promising. The big four from last year: He has Cutch at .283/.369/.480 (Bill James - .286/.372/.483); Neil Walker at .270/.328/.430 (James - .275/.337/.435); and Garrett Jones at .253/.309/.446 (James - .254/.315/.454), so they agree that the trio are going to regress to their norms (which the steady Walker meets every season). The only disagreement is on Pedro - Szymborski has him at .236/.313/.451, while James sees steady improvement at .257/.336/.481. Don't ask about the pitching...yet.
• The Pirates, Angels, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners, and Padres are all believed to be vying for Rick Porcello. Detroit is looking for a shortstop, late-inning reliever, or right-handed hitting outfielder in exchange for the right-hander, according to Nathan Aderhold of the Daily Dish.
• Cutch gets some MLB Network love.
• John Perrotto in Baseball America picked his Bucco Top Ten Prospects, along with the Best Tools in the Organization and 2016 lineup.
• Kiley McDaniel in his "Report From the Instructs" Fangraph feature gives a scout's view on pitchers Nick Kingham, Clay Holmes and Vic Black. He likes Kingham.

JK's Back...

Well, we guess the search for another starter has just taken a U-turn. Deciding to stay with the devil they know, the Bucs brought back Jeff Karstens, 30, a solid but fragile righty, after refusing to tender him in November.

Bill Brink of the Post Gazette reported the deal is for a year/$2.5M pending his physical, a cut from his $3.1M salary of 2012 and much less than his expected $4M arbitration deal. He's given the Bucs 375-2/3 innings in the past three years mainly as a starter, all cut short by injury, with a 17-23 record. JK's pitched to a sub-4 ERA the past two seasons, but only managed 41 starts.

We thought the Bucs screwed up when they let him go, but he didn't draw much interest in the marketplace, so the prodigal son returned home again. The Pirates other targets, Francisco Liriano and Shaun Marcum, both have bigger physical question marks and would command much bigger deals than Karstens, both in cash and duration.

While it dims the prospects of another starting pitcher signing on, it doesn't dismiss them out of hand. Outside of AJ Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh doesn't have a guy with a proven track record of dependability. But now they'll be dealing from strength rather than need, and that's a place the Pirates are rarely at.