- Charlie Wilmoth of MLB Trade Rumors gives his offseason outlook for the Pirates. He writes that "...it wouldn't be at all surprising to see the Pirates do something dramatic this offseason. It's an important time for baseball in Pittsburgh, and the team has money to spend."
- Michael Barr of Fangraphs has an article on Russell Martin that has a fantasy baseball slant based on Russ' regression at the plate.
- Drew Brown put together a pretty nice vid of the 2013 Bucco season we thought you might enjoy.
Monday, October 21, 2013
Pirate Notes, 2013 Highlight Vid
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Pittsburgh - Third Base 2014
Yep, we know there are still lots of fans waiting for Pedro to move across the diamond. All we can say is don't hold your breath; there's not a 3B within sight in the organization, and El Toro, despite throwing away a couple of dozen balls annually, is becoming competent at the spot. The plays he's made, both routine and out of zone, increased noticeably this season, even if the first base fans can count on getting a bonus free ball every so often as part of the package.
His UZR/150 is -0.4, but that's better than Adrian Beltre, Placido Polanco, Carlos Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, Chris Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman and David Freese, so it's not like he's an absolute sore thumb with the mitt. Beside, he did tie for the NL lead in homers and drove in 100 runs, so the Bucs are unlikely to fix something that is not broken, at least in the near term.
What is broken isn't so much his mitt as his eye against lefties. His line screams for a platoon partner, and the Pirates haven't been able to come up with one. Force feeding him to southpaws hasn't helped. In 2012, with 152 PA, his LH line was .207/.270/.279 with six HR and a .648 OPS. In 2013, the numbers were .180/.252/.286 with a .537 OPS and three homers in 147 PA.
As mentioned, the Buc organization is as bare as Lady Godiva at the hot corner, and after Pedro, there isn't much in the big league dugout, either. Josh Harrison is second on the depth chart, and both Jordy Mercer and Gaby Sanchez have played the spot sparingly. So the lowdown is that it's Alvarez's position; he doesn't even have a platoon guy (remember Brandon Inge?) to give him a blow.
The Bucs seem comfortable with Harrison and a middle infield glove guy for their 2014 bench, so the most likely patch on the third base hole will be to pick up another Jason Goedert type (though he didn't work out quite as planned) to stash at Indy in case of emergency. They could take another route and look for a guy like Mark Reynolds, who can play either infield corner and while not exactly a lefty masher does have a lifetime .834 OPS against LHP, though it dropped to .725 last year.
Pedro is the man for the next three years. He can opt for arbitration this season, and certainly will as it's been bandied about that his take home could jump to $5M in 2014 from $700K. So he's under team control through the 2016 season.
Make no mistake, though - this is a position the Buc FO will have to address, and not in the very far future. The Pirates have three years of control for Pedro, and they need to develop a plan for his successor. They have several routes between player development to the market they can choose to take, and it's one they need to begin travelling soon.
His UZR/150 is -0.4, but that's better than Adrian Beltre, Placido Polanco, Carlos Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, Chris Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman and David Freese, so it's not like he's an absolute sore thumb with the mitt. Beside, he did tie for the NL lead in homers and drove in 100 runs, so the Bucs are unlikely to fix something that is not broken, at least in the near term.
What is broken isn't so much his mitt as his eye against lefties. His line screams for a platoon partner, and the Pirates haven't been able to come up with one. Force feeding him to southpaws hasn't helped. In 2012, with 152 PA, his LH line was .207/.270/.279 with six HR and a .648 OPS. In 2013, the numbers were .180/.252/.286 with a .537 OPS and three homers in 147 PA.
As mentioned, the Buc organization is as bare as Lady Godiva at the hot corner, and after Pedro, there isn't much in the big league dugout, either. Josh Harrison is second on the depth chart, and both Jordy Mercer and Gaby Sanchez have played the spot sparingly. So the lowdown is that it's Alvarez's position; he doesn't even have a platoon guy (remember Brandon Inge?) to give him a blow.
The Bucs seem comfortable with Harrison and a middle infield glove guy for their 2014 bench, so the most likely patch on the third base hole will be to pick up another Jason Goedert type (though he didn't work out quite as planned) to stash at Indy in case of emergency. They could take another route and look for a guy like Mark Reynolds, who can play either infield corner and while not exactly a lefty masher does have a lifetime .834 OPS against LHP, though it dropped to .725 last year.
Pedro is the man for the next three years. He can opt for arbitration this season, and certainly will as it's been bandied about that his take home could jump to $5M in 2014 from $700K. So he's under team control through the 2016 season.
Make no mistake, though - this is a position the Buc FO will have to address, and not in the very far future. The Pirates have three years of control for Pedro, and they need to develop a plan for his successor. They have several routes between player development to the market they can choose to take, and it's one they need to begin travelling soon.
Pirate Notes
A few weekend notes...
- Travis Sawchik of the Tribune Review gives the pro and con of the Pirates sustainability, balancing the veteran free agents now on the roster being replaced through the farm system.
- Matt Kajtka of City of Champions makes his case for Cutch batting second.
- Pedro dropped the anchor, a Vanderbilt pre-game ritual, Saturday before the Georgia game. It's the second time he's dropped anchor; the first was in 2011 with other ex-Commodore ball players Mike Baxter, Ryan Flaherty and Matt Buschmann.
- RHP Phil Irwin made his first appearance after May surgery in the Arizona Fall League, and looked pretty good. He went three innings, retiring eight batters in a row. 1B/OF Alex Dickerson is holding his own after six games with a .292 BA and .745 OPS, though 11 K in 24 AB is a bit of a small sample red flag.
- After a slow start, SS Alen Hanson is hitting .286 in the Arizona Fall League. The Dominican League just started, but OF Gregory Polanco has homered in both games he's played.
- Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects noted that the Bucs sent minor league 2B Jimmy Rider, who was born in Pittsburgh and went to Kent State, to the Red Sox for a PTBNL in a housecleaning move.
- It ends up that the Cards' Michael Wacha wasn't just a Bucco killer in the playoffs; he owned the Dodgers, too. The righty is the third rookie starter to win two games in NLCS (the first was Bucco twirler Tim Wakefield in 1992; the other was Tim Belcher in ’98) and was named NLCS MVP. Watching him and Gerrit Cole toss in the NL Central for the next few years will be special.
- Speaking of the division, the player the Pittsburgh fans love to hate, Brandon Phillips of the Reds, may not be around to boo next season. He's reported to be on the block this off season.
- In case you're wondering when the hot stove league begins up in earnest, free agents can declare and begin negotiating five days after the World Series ends. The Winter Meetings are scheduled for December 9th-12th, with the Rule 5 draft on the last day.
- And in case you were on a football binge yesterday, it's a St. Louis-Boston World Series on tap.
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Pittsburgh - Shortstop 2014
This is an unsettled position for the Pirates. Jordy Mercer, 27, will be back, and we think the odds are even that Clint Barmes, 36, will be, too. The Bucs don't have confidence in Mercer's everyday ability to turn grounders into outs, as seen by all the post-season starts that Barmes picked up. But his bat plays.
Mercer raked against lefties, hitting .410, but hit only .247 against RHP, which went counter to his minuscule sample size in 2012. This should be the year that the Pirates put him out to sink or swim. But they also could decide that his calling is as a reserve middle infielder, flip Mercer for Barmes, and go looking for an everyday guy. The more notable available are:
Stephen Drew, 31, who is on the way out at Boston with Xander Bogaerts ready for showtime. He's coming off a $9.5M contract with a .777 OPS, and is a steady, dependable fielder. The lefty has a fair-sized batting split, so he'd be a nice match with Mercer.
Yunel Escobar, 30, has a $5M option for 2014 and 2015. The Rays could also exercise his option and trade him. He hit .256 with a .332 OBP, including nine home runs and 56 RBI. Escobar is also a plus fielder.
Jhonny Peralta, 32, is a bat-first guy that may or may not become available; Detroit is still toying with moving him to third in view of Jose Iglesias strong D-play, so his availability is up in the air. His stick is an upgrade, and his splits aren't a problem.
Rafael Furcal, 36, of the Cards who underwent TJ surgery in March, would be a stretch.
A look at the trade market has Jurickson Probar, 20, from Texas and Alexei Ramirez, 32, of the White Sox both being dangled, but their asking price is unknown; we can bet it will be high.
If they go with Mercer everyday, the preference is to bring back Barmes with a contract that reflects his role as a bench guy rather than starter, and how that sits with him is the key to his return. We'd expect him to at least dip a toe in the market. If he finds greener pastures, there are a couple of glove-first bench guys that could interest the Bucs. Chief among them would be:
Alexi Casilla, 29, the Orioles backup, who suffered concussion in late September. He's generally a .245 hitter who went through a bad year, finishing with just a .214 BA, but that may be explained by a bad-luck .247 BABIP.
Cesar Izturis, 34, of the Reds is a veteran presence with a .260 lifetime BA and decent glove skills.
Brendan Ryan, 32, is another glove guy who's had a very challenged bat the past two seasons, putting up .194 and .197 BAs.
Again, the minor league system is void of help at the upper levels. Chase d'Arnaud has been challenged both hitting and fielding, and Ivan DeJesus hasn't recovered the range to play SS again. Alen Hanson will open at Altoona with some questions as to his ability to stick at short. Gift Ngoepe has the glove and wheels to play in the show, but his bat is weak, with a .minor league career .228 BA (.177 at Altoona, his highest level).
Mercer raked against lefties, hitting .410, but hit only .247 against RHP, which went counter to his minuscule sample size in 2012. This should be the year that the Pirates put him out to sink or swim. But they also could decide that his calling is as a reserve middle infielder, flip Mercer for Barmes, and go looking for an everyday guy. The more notable available are:
Stephen Drew, 31, who is on the way out at Boston with Xander Bogaerts ready for showtime. He's coming off a $9.5M contract with a .777 OPS, and is a steady, dependable fielder. The lefty has a fair-sized batting split, so he'd be a nice match with Mercer.
Yunel Escobar, 30, has a $5M option for 2014 and 2015. The Rays could also exercise his option and trade him. He hit .256 with a .332 OBP, including nine home runs and 56 RBI. Escobar is also a plus fielder.
Jhonny Peralta, 32, is a bat-first guy that may or may not become available; Detroit is still toying with moving him to third in view of Jose Iglesias strong D-play, so his availability is up in the air. His stick is an upgrade, and his splits aren't a problem.
Rafael Furcal, 36, of the Cards who underwent TJ surgery in March, would be a stretch.
A look at the trade market has Jurickson Probar, 20, from Texas and Alexei Ramirez, 32, of the White Sox both being dangled, but their asking price is unknown; we can bet it will be high.
If they go with Mercer everyday, the preference is to bring back Barmes with a contract that reflects his role as a bench guy rather than starter, and how that sits with him is the key to his return. We'd expect him to at least dip a toe in the market. If he finds greener pastures, there are a couple of glove-first bench guys that could interest the Bucs. Chief among them would be:
Alexi Casilla, 29, the Orioles backup, who suffered concussion in late September. He's generally a .245 hitter who went through a bad year, finishing with just a .214 BA, but that may be explained by a bad-luck .247 BABIP.
Cesar Izturis, 34, of the Reds is a veteran presence with a .260 lifetime BA and decent glove skills.
Brendan Ryan, 32, is another glove guy who's had a very challenged bat the past two seasons, putting up .194 and .197 BAs.
Again, the minor league system is void of help at the upper levels. Chase d'Arnaud has been challenged both hitting and fielding, and Ivan DeJesus hasn't recovered the range to play SS again. Alen Hanson will open at Altoona with some questions as to his ability to stick at short. Gift Ngoepe has the glove and wheels to play in the show, but his bat is weak, with a .minor league career .228 BA (.177 at Altoona, his highest level).
10/18-19: Cash-for-Brett, Cup Finale, Jose Bautista, Harry the Hat, J-Mac, Don Leppert...
Cash-for-Brett, Cup Finale, Jose Bautista, Harry the Hat, J-Mac, Don Leppert...
- October 18, 1900 - The Brooklyn Superbas won the Chronicle-Telegraph Cup three games to one with a 4-1 win at Exposition Park as Joe McGinnity outpitched Sam Leever. The series was a challenge match sponsored by the Pittsburgh Chronicle-Telegraph (bought by the Pittsburgh Press in 1924) between the top two NL teams in an era before post-season games. It was a fruitful learning experience for the runner-up Pirates, which went on to win the next three NL pennants and played in the first World Series in 1903. The lessons didn't quite sink in for the Superbas. The Brooklyn club didn’t win another postseason set until 1955, when they claimed the World Series title as the Dodgers.
- October 18, 1973 - The Pirates shipped 2B Dave Cash to Philadelphia in exchange for LHP Ken Brett. Cash was being phased out for Rennie Stennett, but still had seven years and three All-Star games left in him. Brett went 22-14 with a 3.32 ERA for Pittsburgh in two seasons and made an All-Star team before an elbow injury slowed him down, and like Cash still had a long shelf life. He pitched seven more years after leaving the Pirates, although he wasn’t really effective again after 1976.
- October 19, 1931 - C Don Leppert was born in Indianapolis. He had a brief four year MLB career as a reserve catcher, starting with Pittsburgh in 1961-62 and batting .266. But he made the record books by hitting a home run on the first pitch thrown to him in the show on June 18th, 1961, against Curt Simmons of the St. Louis Cardinals in a 5-3 Bucco win. Leppert managed the Pirates’ Class A Gastonia club in 1967 and then served as a MLB coach for Pittsburgh from 1968–1976.
- October 19, 1964 - Harry “The Hat” Walker was named manager of the Pirates, replacing Danny Murtaugh after an 80-82 season and sixth place finish in the NL.
- October 19, 1980 - 3B/OF Jose Bautista was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. He played for the Bucs from 2004-08, and hit .241 with 43 HR during that time. He blossomed after being traded to Toronto, leading the AL in homers twice.
- October 19, 1984 - James McDonald was born in Long Beach, California. The righty came to Pittsburgh in 2010 as part of the Octavio Dotel deal, and was an up-and-down member of the rotation until 2013 (when he was released), going 27-24/4.21 in his Pirate years. He had a breakout campaign in 2012 until after the All-Star break when the wheels fell off, and he never recovered.
Friday, October 18, 2013
Pittsburgh - Second Base 2014
Pretty simple, hey? Neil Walker has owned the spot since the short-lived reign of Akinori Iwamura in 2010. And that's not a bad thing. He's been a pretty consistent .275-.280, 12-15 HR guy and his fielding has improved every year at the position, one that he had played all of 21 times in the minors.
But a leak or two has sprung. The 28 year old had back problems that cost him a month in 2012, and an oblique took him out of action this season. He's a big guy for a middle infielder at 6' 3", 210 lbs and he may continue to have flexibility issues; it's hard to play second without dives, pivots and high slides.
More worrisome is the switch hitter's splits. In 2010-11, he was equally as dangerous from either side regarding his BA, though he did slug better from the left side. But in the last two years, a widening gap has emerged. In 2012, his line against righties was .291/.352/.472; against southpaws it was .246/.314/.288. The OPS was .824 v .612.
It was worse last year. Against RHP, The Kid's line was .256/.350/.455; against southpaws it was .225/.281/.238. The OPS was .805 v .518. Opposing managers have certainly noticed; Walker regularly gets turned around to the right side in the late innings, turning him from a blaster into a blooper. And the answer is not, as been floated around, to make him a full-time lefty. If you can't hit LHP from the right side, moving across the box doesn't seem like a promising fix.
It appears the league has gotten a little book on him batting from the right, and that in effect has made him, by the numbers, a platoon player. But with who? Jordy Mercer rakes lefties, but he's at short when they're on the hill, and Clint Barmes hits lefties every bit as badly as Neil, if he returns. Josh Harrison's career line against lefties is .256/.290/.346 with a .636 OPS, an improvement but not of very great magnitude.
Except for that lefty-righty thing, we wouldn't be too concerned about his hitting. True that he went icy during the playoffs, but his regular season performance, though streaky, matched his prior years in all his peripherals but batted ball in play, so it seems that he ran into a little bad luck with his BA in 2013.
His fielding is adequate and has gotten better, as his UZR/150 has improved every year, but he's never been mistaken for rangy, although he is excellent on balls in the air. Walker will be a fixture for the near term at the position. He's under team control through 2016, entering his second arb year (he was a Super Two player). The Kid made $3.3M last year and should be due a nice bump, and it looks like neither side is real interested in talking about a contract beyond then, when Walker will be entering his age 31 season.
This is another spot where the Pirates are dangerously thin, which is true of their entire infield. After Harrison and Mercer, there is no one behind him in the organization. Ivan DeJesus and Chase d'Arnaud were at Indy. DeJesus didn't make the 40-man roster, though he has MLB experience and hit .319 at Indy. He'll be a minor league FA and likely part with the organization. We're surprised that the Pirates didn't show a little more interest in him, but we'd guess they were looking for a little more glove.
d'Arnaud had hip and hand injuries, playing just 61 games at Indy while hitting .233, and didn't get a September call. He does have an option left, so he could possibly return, although he's also in a liability in the field. And behind them is basically nothing exciting, unless Alen Hanson moves from SS to second. Though 20, he may be approaching the big team's radar scree as he's already at Altoona.
It should be noted that the second baseman of the future, Dilson Herrera, was sent to the Mets as part of the Marlon Byrd deal, and he and Hansen were the middle infield up-and-comers.
It's a position with a long and proud history in Pittsburgh, from Bill Mazeroski to Dave Cash to Rennie Stennett to Johnny Ray to Phil Garner to Carlos Garcia to Freddy Sanchez to Neil Walker. But the Pirate emphasis on stockpiling pitchers is having an impact on the everyday player pool, and there is no near term help in the organizational pipeline.
So we'd expect to see Neil manning the infield for awhile. He may get a blow every so often against a lefty, but he's the lynchpin. The Bucs won't get anyone to challenge him, but bide their time until a homegrown guy can make his way to Pittsburgh, whenever that may be; remember, there was no heir apparent when The Kid was moved from third to second.
But a leak or two has sprung. The 28 year old had back problems that cost him a month in 2012, and an oblique took him out of action this season. He's a big guy for a middle infielder at 6' 3", 210 lbs and he may continue to have flexibility issues; it's hard to play second without dives, pivots and high slides.
More worrisome is the switch hitter's splits. In 2010-11, he was equally as dangerous from either side regarding his BA, though he did slug better from the left side. But in the last two years, a widening gap has emerged. In 2012, his line against righties was .291/.352/.472; against southpaws it was .246/.314/.288. The OPS was .824 v .612.
It was worse last year. Against RHP, The Kid's line was .256/.350/.455; against southpaws it was .225/.281/.238. The OPS was .805 v .518. Opposing managers have certainly noticed; Walker regularly gets turned around to the right side in the late innings, turning him from a blaster into a blooper. And the answer is not, as been floated around, to make him a full-time lefty. If you can't hit LHP from the right side, moving across the box doesn't seem like a promising fix.
It appears the league has gotten a little book on him batting from the right, and that in effect has made him, by the numbers, a platoon player. But with who? Jordy Mercer rakes lefties, but he's at short when they're on the hill, and Clint Barmes hits lefties every bit as badly as Neil, if he returns. Josh Harrison's career line against lefties is .256/.290/.346 with a .636 OPS, an improvement but not of very great magnitude.
Except for that lefty-righty thing, we wouldn't be too concerned about his hitting. True that he went icy during the playoffs, but his regular season performance, though streaky, matched his prior years in all his peripherals but batted ball in play, so it seems that he ran into a little bad luck with his BA in 2013.
His fielding is adequate and has gotten better, as his UZR/150 has improved every year, but he's never been mistaken for rangy, although he is excellent on balls in the air. Walker will be a fixture for the near term at the position. He's under team control through 2016, entering his second arb year (he was a Super Two player). The Kid made $3.3M last year and should be due a nice bump, and it looks like neither side is real interested in talking about a contract beyond then, when Walker will be entering his age 31 season.
This is another spot where the Pirates are dangerously thin, which is true of their entire infield. After Harrison and Mercer, there is no one behind him in the organization. Ivan DeJesus and Chase d'Arnaud were at Indy. DeJesus didn't make the 40-man roster, though he has MLB experience and hit .319 at Indy. He'll be a minor league FA and likely part with the organization. We're surprised that the Pirates didn't show a little more interest in him, but we'd guess they were looking for a little more glove.
d'Arnaud had hip and hand injuries, playing just 61 games at Indy while hitting .233, and didn't get a September call. He does have an option left, so he could possibly return, although he's also in a liability in the field. And behind them is basically nothing exciting, unless Alen Hanson moves from SS to second. Though 20, he may be approaching the big team's radar scree as he's already at Altoona.
It should be noted that the second baseman of the future, Dilson Herrera, was sent to the Mets as part of the Marlon Byrd deal, and he and Hansen were the middle infield up-and-comers.
It's a position with a long and proud history in Pittsburgh, from Bill Mazeroski to Dave Cash to Rennie Stennett to Johnny Ray to Phil Garner to Carlos Garcia to Freddy Sanchez to Neil Walker. But the Pirate emphasis on stockpiling pitchers is having an impact on the everyday player pool, and there is no near term help in the organizational pipeline.
So we'd expect to see Neil manning the infield for awhile. He may get a blow every so often against a lefty, but he's the lynchpin. The Bucs won't get anyone to challenge him, but bide their time until a homegrown guy can make his way to Pittsburgh, whenever that may be; remember, there was no heir apparent when The Kid was moved from third to second.
Pirate Notes...
The season is over, but the wheels keep turnin'...
- Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors has a piece on the upcoming free agency of AJ.
- The injury report: RHP Phil Irwin is back from his ulnar nerve injury and working a few frames in the Arizona Fall League. RHP Jeff Karstens is in the rehab stage of his rotator cuff/labrum surgery. LHP Wandy Rodriguez is expected to ready for camp after being shut down with arthritis/tedinitis/inflammation. C Mike McKenry is due to return from his knee surgery in March. RHP Kyle McPherson's return from TJ surgery is expected to be in July.
- While on injuries, Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs has a "PAIN" table to calculate which pitchers are likely to be pitching hurt. LHP Jeff Locke leads the list, and by a wide margin.
- RHP Jameson Taillon's season has ended. He suffered a minor groin tweak, and the Bucs are shutting him down. And that's probably OK; he worked 150 frames between Altoona, Indy and the Arizona League. The Bucs would have liked to add a couple more innings to his count, but he's sitting at about the same IP total that Gerrit Cole entered the 2013 season with.
- Speaking of Taillon, he, OF Gregory Polanco and RHP Nick Kingham made Baseball America's Top Twenty Prospects list for the AA Eastern League.
- Jim Callas of MLB.com posted that OF Josh Bell is ready to join the Top 100 Prospects list.
- Baseball America liked the Pirates 2013 draft a lot - they named it the top draft class of the year.
- The Pirates announced they've added a ninth minor league affiliate: Bristol, Virginia of the rookie Appalachian League (much akin to the short-season PA-NY leagues).
- Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors has a piece on RHP Josh Johnson, and places the Pirates among a gaggle of clubs that fit his mold if the Blues Jays let him hit the market.
- The Cleveland Indians signed RHP Matt Capps to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Pittsburgh - First Base 2014
If the Bucs have a black hole in the lineup, this is where it's at. They expected the Garrett Jones - Gaby Sanchez platoon to give them league average or better production in 2013, but only got that performance from Sanchez.
Gaby matched his 2008-11 Marlin OPS this year, though with many fewer at bats and did his job as the RH half of the platoon with a .984 OPS and solid glovework. But with a .618 OPS against righties, he's a one-way player, not an everyday answer.
Jones, unfortunately, did not have much of a season, and his August swoon was the reason the Bucs gave up Alex Presley and Duke Welker for a month of Justin Morneau. Pittsburgh protected him well against lefties, but his .241 BA and .731 OPS didn't get the job done. Pittsburgh is constructed in such a way that their 1B has to be a middle-of-the-order bat, and neither Jones nor Morneau came through in the cleanup spot.
To add to the problem, Garrett is a Super Two and has two more years of arbitration; he's a cinch to make $6M in 2014, and that's a lot for a platoon guy that's not producing. Enough, anyway, to make the 32 year old's tender a very iffy thing, depending on whether or not the FO can come up with a fix. The Bucs have just a couple of ways to deal with the situation, other than to keep Jones/Sanchez together again.
Keeping Morneau is another option, but his age, declining production and hefty contract all work against a return, as does his mediocre month with the Pirates.
The most obvious course is to cross their fingers and hope that Andrew Lambo becomes what Garrett Jones was expected to be. He didn't put together the greatest line last year - .233 with a homer - but only batted 30 times. He didn't look overmatched, and is under team control for the next six years. If Lambo can provide some pop, the Bucs will have their platoon tandem in place and at an affordable pay rate, as Gaby is going into his second arb year and will probably pull in around $3M.
But that's an awfully risky decision, and one without a net; there is no obvious replacement on the roster or in the upper levels. Indy's Matt Hague, 28, is still around. He led the International League in hits with 153, but doesn't have the power the Bucs want from the spot. The Bucs gave him some at-bats in 2012 (OK, just 70), and his .229 BA and .257 slugging % soured them to the point that he was dropped from the 40-man roster.
Alex Dickerson had a breakout year to get on the radar at Altoona. He rode a hot June and July to a .288/17/68 line for the Curve. But the 23 year old from Indiana U (Bloomington) has never played at the AAA level, so even if he continues to beat baseballs, he's not a candidate for 2014.
He and Matt Curry, 25, were the two guys that were supposed to provide first base depth, but Curry lost virtually all of the 2013 season because of hamate surgery. Curry did show some promise at Altoona in 2012, hitting .285 with 34 doubles; he's more of a gap hitter than long baller. He has to reestablish himself.
Stetson Allie, the converted pitcher, was Babe Ruth at West Virginia, but couldn't put a ball in play when he jumped up a level. A possible, down-the-road replacement may be Josh Bell. The highly touted pick from the 2011 draft blew out his knee in 2012, but at West Virginia last season came back with a .279/13/76 line. He's listed as an outfielder, but the Pirate system brims with those guys, and a move to first as he advances could help clear a spot for him.
1B is not a position of strength in the Pirate organization, and while there may be some future help, there's nothing on the horizon. The best solution would be to find a free agent that could give some stability to the position for at least the next couple of years.
The Bucs were said to be in play for Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, 27, but with his estimated price tag said to be approaching $70M, he's not hangin' out in the usual Pittsburgh financial neighborhood. We wouldn't eliminate him entirely out of hand, rumors being just that, but that would be an expensive and out-of-character roll of the dice for a team that can't carry too much dead money.
Mike Napoli, 31, might interest the Bucs. The Boston first baseman is a grinder at the plate, although a streaky hitter, and is a 20+ HR player since 2008. His .840 OPS against same side pitchers and ability to play the position well makes him an everyday guy. He makes $13M this year, not terribly more than the Jones/Sanchez platoon would haul in.
Tampa Bay's James Loney, 29, could get a look. His splits weren't terribly wide last year, making him a potential everyday player, although his career stats indicate he'd be probably be more productive as part of a platoon. The upside is that he's only making $2M in a year where he rebuilt value from his Dodger days; the bad news is that he hit just 13 homers, and that the Rays are making a run at keeping him.
The Brewers' Cory Hart, out all season with a pair of knee surgeries, could get his tires kicked by the FO. The creaky joints make him a risk and he's a big strikeout guy, but his power, OPS and decent splits could merit a look.
Seattle's Kendrys Morales, 30, could make sense, too, as an all-bat option. Morales just finished arbitration - he made $5.5M - and is looking for a big contract which he may or not be able to land, being more a DH than position player. It's thought that the Mariners plan to tender him, and that would cost a draft pick beside the signing bonus, which goes against the Pirate grain even if they're picking 27th this year.
Mark Reynolds, 30, is also a FA, but his low average, high K profile is already taken by Pedro; we're not enamored of the two of them beside one another in the lineup. But he is another big-bat option that can play either infield corner and can probably be had for a price the Pirates could afford.
Finally, we'd be remiss without mentioning Mark Trumbo of the Angels; oft rumored but never offered; ditto for the Marlins' Logan Morrison. Maybe this is the year they hit the market.
We think this is most likely to be the position they redo. They have in-house options for RF and SS, and the 1B market isn't as threadbare as it was last year.
Gaby matched his 2008-11 Marlin OPS this year, though with many fewer at bats and did his job as the RH half of the platoon with a .984 OPS and solid glovework. But with a .618 OPS against righties, he's a one-way player, not an everyday answer.
Jones, unfortunately, did not have much of a season, and his August swoon was the reason the Bucs gave up Alex Presley and Duke Welker for a month of Justin Morneau. Pittsburgh protected him well against lefties, but his .241 BA and .731 OPS didn't get the job done. Pittsburgh is constructed in such a way that their 1B has to be a middle-of-the-order bat, and neither Jones nor Morneau came through in the cleanup spot.
To add to the problem, Garrett is a Super Two and has two more years of arbitration; he's a cinch to make $6M in 2014, and that's a lot for a platoon guy that's not producing. Enough, anyway, to make the 32 year old's tender a very iffy thing, depending on whether or not the FO can come up with a fix. The Bucs have just a couple of ways to deal with the situation, other than to keep Jones/Sanchez together again.
Keeping Morneau is another option, but his age, declining production and hefty contract all work against a return, as does his mediocre month with the Pirates.
The most obvious course is to cross their fingers and hope that Andrew Lambo becomes what Garrett Jones was expected to be. He didn't put together the greatest line last year - .233 with a homer - but only batted 30 times. He didn't look overmatched, and is under team control for the next six years. If Lambo can provide some pop, the Bucs will have their platoon tandem in place and at an affordable pay rate, as Gaby is going into his second arb year and will probably pull in around $3M.
But that's an awfully risky decision, and one without a net; there is no obvious replacement on the roster or in the upper levels. Indy's Matt Hague, 28, is still around. He led the International League in hits with 153, but doesn't have the power the Bucs want from the spot. The Bucs gave him some at-bats in 2012 (OK, just 70), and his .229 BA and .257 slugging % soured them to the point that he was dropped from the 40-man roster.
Alex Dickerson had a breakout year to get on the radar at Altoona. He rode a hot June and July to a .288/17/68 line for the Curve. But the 23 year old from Indiana U (Bloomington) has never played at the AAA level, so even if he continues to beat baseballs, he's not a candidate for 2014.
He and Matt Curry, 25, were the two guys that were supposed to provide first base depth, but Curry lost virtually all of the 2013 season because of hamate surgery. Curry did show some promise at Altoona in 2012, hitting .285 with 34 doubles; he's more of a gap hitter than long baller. He has to reestablish himself.
Stetson Allie, the converted pitcher, was Babe Ruth at West Virginia, but couldn't put a ball in play when he jumped up a level. A possible, down-the-road replacement may be Josh Bell. The highly touted pick from the 2011 draft blew out his knee in 2012, but at West Virginia last season came back with a .279/13/76 line. He's listed as an outfielder, but the Pirate system brims with those guys, and a move to first as he advances could help clear a spot for him.
1B is not a position of strength in the Pirate organization, and while there may be some future help, there's nothing on the horizon. The best solution would be to find a free agent that could give some stability to the position for at least the next couple of years.
The Bucs were said to be in play for Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, 27, but with his estimated price tag said to be approaching $70M, he's not hangin' out in the usual Pittsburgh financial neighborhood. We wouldn't eliminate him entirely out of hand, rumors being just that, but that would be an expensive and out-of-character roll of the dice for a team that can't carry too much dead money.
Mike Napoli, 31, might interest the Bucs. The Boston first baseman is a grinder at the plate, although a streaky hitter, and is a 20+ HR player since 2008. His .840 OPS against same side pitchers and ability to play the position well makes him an everyday guy. He makes $13M this year, not terribly more than the Jones/Sanchez platoon would haul in.
Tampa Bay's James Loney, 29, could get a look. His splits weren't terribly wide last year, making him a potential everyday player, although his career stats indicate he'd be probably be more productive as part of a platoon. The upside is that he's only making $2M in a year where he rebuilt value from his Dodger days; the bad news is that he hit just 13 homers, and that the Rays are making a run at keeping him.
The Brewers' Cory Hart, out all season with a pair of knee surgeries, could get his tires kicked by the FO. The creaky joints make him a risk and he's a big strikeout guy, but his power, OPS and decent splits could merit a look.
Seattle's Kendrys Morales, 30, could make sense, too, as an all-bat option. Morales just finished arbitration - he made $5.5M - and is looking for a big contract which he may or not be able to land, being more a DH than position player. It's thought that the Mariners plan to tender him, and that would cost a draft pick beside the signing bonus, which goes against the Pirate grain even if they're picking 27th this year.
Mark Reynolds, 30, is also a FA, but his low average, high K profile is already taken by Pedro; we're not enamored of the two of them beside one another in the lineup. But he is another big-bat option that can play either infield corner and can probably be had for a price the Pirates could afford.
Finally, we'd be remiss without mentioning Mark Trumbo of the Angels; oft rumored but never offered; ditto for the Marlins' Logan Morrison. Maybe this is the year they hit the market.
We think this is most likely to be the position they redo. They have in-house options for RF and SS, and the 1B market isn't as threadbare as it was last year.
10/17 - Bucs Win '71, '79 Series vs Orioles, Bats Go Icy Against Braves, Staying Alive In Chronicle-Telegraph Cup...
Bucs Win '71, '79 Series vs Orioles, Bats Go Icy Against Braves, Staying Alive In Chronicle-Telegraph Cup...
- 1900 - Pittsburgh avoided being swept in the Chronicle-Telegraph Cup series by nickle-and-diming Harry Howell for 13 singles and 10 runs. Tommy Leach reached base five times and scored four runs. Ginger Beaumont had three hits, and Claude Ritchey, Honus Wagner and Bones Ely added a pair. Deacon Phillippe threw a six-hit shutout for the win at Exposition Park, although the Pirates still trailed the best-of-five series two games to one.
- October 17, 1971 - Steve Blass hurled a four-hitter and Roberto Clemente homered as the Pirates won Game Seven of the World Series, 2-1, at Baltimore, earning Pittsburgh its fourth World Championship. The winning run scored in the eighth, when Jose Pagan doubled home Willie Stargell. Clemente hit safely in all seven games of the series, a feat he also accomplished in 1960 against the Yankees, extending his consecutive Fall Classic hitting streak to 14 contests. He also became the first Latino player to earn World Series MVP honors after batting .414. Bruce Kison and his best man Bob Moose were taken from Memorial Stadium by helicopter to a waiting Lear Jet to attend his wedding in Pittsburgh; the groom arrived just 33 minutes late. And though it was a bright moment for the club, it wasn’t for some fans. After the game‚ 40‚000 people ran wild downtown; many were arrested and at least 100 were injured‚ some seriously.
Topps - 1971
- 1979 - In Game Seven at Baltimore, President Jimmy Carter opened the game with a ceremonial pitch and Willie Stargell finished it by going 3-for-4 with his third World Series homer, lifting the Pirates to a 4-1 win and their fifth World Championship. Captain Willie gave the Bucs a 2-1 lead in the sixth with his blast. Kent Tekulve worked out of a bases loaded jam in the eighth and Pittsburgh tacked on a pair of ninth inning insurance runs to take a 4-1 victory, with Grant Jackson earning the W. Pops was named Series MVP after the Pirates erased a three-games-to-one deficit to rally past the Orioles. 60,000 fans greeted the team at the airport when they arrived home at 3AM, with thousands more lining the parkway. Baltimore, which planned a victory parade two games prior, still held one the next day and drew 125,000 for their beloved and now bedraggled Birds. The game was big - an estimated 80 million people, then the largest TV audience in the history of the World Series, watched the showdown.
Willie Stargell Serigraph by LeRoy Neiman
- 1991 - In Game Seven of the NLCS, Brian Hunter's two-run shot in the first inning off John Smiley was all John Smoltz needed as he tossed a 4-0, six hit whitewash against the Bucs at TRS. Atlanta won their first NL pennant since their move from Milwaukee as the Pirates failed to score in the last 22 innings of the series. The Braves lost the World Series to the Minnesota Twins four games to three in one of the most dramatic championships in the MLB annals.
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Pittsburgh - Catching 2014
The MLB pieces for next year's catching duties are in place, with Russell Martin, 30, and his apprentice Tony Sanchez, 25. Martin was a shot in the arm, using his background of catching for the Dodger and Yankee staffs and transferring that knowledge to Pittsburgh's hurlers.
Russ came as advertised; low BA, decent OBP and some pop (.226/.327, 15 HR, 55 RBI) with a strong presence behind the plate. He also came reputed to have a good glove and command of the staff. He led all catchers defensively per Fangraphs, and his WAR of 4.1 was fourth among receivers.
He's also not exactly cut out of the usual catching mold physically; he and Sanchez are both athletic. And that's pretty clutch if you're wiggling fingers at the Pirate pitchers; their sinkers, sliders, hooks and change ups bounce to the plate as often as they cross it.
Sanchez is going to be a storyline in the coming year. He was called up when Mike McKenry went down in late July and wasn't given a whole lot of opportunity. He hit .223 in 60 AB with a couple of homers, and looked pretty comfortable at catching an in-the-dirt staff. But he worked just 112 IP and really didn't get to wet his feet very much. So with the catching job wide open after the 2014 season, we'd expect to see the Pirates trot Tony out behind the plate a little more often.
The third guy in the mix is Mike McKenry, 28, everybody's favorite little engine that could. He's had a couple of clutch hits as a Bucco and is tough as nails, catching several innings in his last outing on a knee that would require surgery.
But The Fort, for his heroics and Pirate folk lore, has a lifetime OPS of .666, and that's jacked up by his 2012 outlier year. His OPS was .598 in 2011 and .610 last year.
His defense is OK, but he has troubles with baserunners. In two years, his toss-out rate is 16.5%. Russ Martin's rate was 40% (although it is misleading to have a top gun as your comparable; the league average was 27.5%). In a very small sample of 112 IP behind the plate, Sanchez threw out just 16.7% of the wanna-be stealers 1-of-6), but his 2012-13 Indy percentage of 26.5%. is probably a better indicator of his arm.
At any rate, The Fort should be back by the process of elimination; the minors are fairly barren above the Class A level. McKenry has an option left, and will almost surely start at Indy, partly to rehab fully from knee surgery and partly because he'd only be a block on Sanchez in Pittsburgh, especially with Martin's contract in the walk year. McKenry isn't due for arbitration until 2015, although with 2.136 years of service, he's almost a lock to qualify as a Super Two player. Either way, he won't be cost-prohibitive, and it would be smart to keep him around until the catching situation for 2015 becomes a little clearer.
John Buck, 33, who Pittsburgh picked up with Marlon Byrd for reasons unknown, is a MLB free agent and shouldn't be of much interest to the Pirates because of high cost and average defense.
The upper levels of the Buc organization are pretty thin with the loss of Sanchez. Indy's Lucas May is a minor league FA and will likely move on. Carlos Paulino, a good glove guy, will take his place. Defensively, he's big league, but his bat has never come around. Jacob Stalling is cut from the same mold and following in his D-first footsteps. Charlie Cutler will join Stalling in Altoona; he's the better bat but not highly regarded with the leather.
The toddler end of the farm has some projected potential, although predicting the future of young catchers is more art than science. (Remember Neil Walker?).
Wyatt Mathiesen, 19, was a second round pick in 2012. After a promising start his first year, last season was kinda lost. He was moved aggressively to Low A West Virginia as a teen in 2013, and didn't have a very strong year with the bat (.185). Likewise, he wasn't impressive receiving the ball, though he did have a 26% toss-out rate).
Generally considered the top prep catching prospect in the draft, Wyatt spent some of his HS playing time at SS and P, and didn't get a lot of reps at catching. He also had shoulder surgery last season, so it's hard to tell if he was moved a little faster than wise or was trying to work through a bum wing. This will be a year for him to reestablish himself. Mathiesen is the most athletic of the trio, and could, ala Walker, be shifted to another position.
Jin-De Jhang, 20, is Taiwanese and was an international signing in 2011. He's a good hitter, batting .288 in two minor league campaigns, although he's beginning to show some split gaps (he bats from the left side). Defensively, he's the furthest behind of the prospects, and the Pirates have been careful to move him along a step at a time to build his mechanical base.
McGuire, 18, was a first round pick (14th overall) this year, and acted like one in his GCL and Jamestown performances. He is the most likely of the trio to move smoothly through the Pirate system, as he's already got a background in some of the more intrinsic catching arts, like pitch calling, handling a staff, etc. as he began behind the dish in little league. His bat is the question, and we'll see how that plays as he advances.
Mathiesen, Jhang and McGuire are on track for Low A West Virginia this year, and it will be interesting - and maybe telling - to see how the Bucs break up the log jam. Our guess is that McGuire will be the top guy for the Power, backed by Mathiesen, with Jhing getting some work in Florida and then rejoining short-season Jamestown.
The Pirates are three-deep in MLB catchers for next year, and have some promise in the lower levels of the system. They're covered fairly well now unless Russ Martin goes down, but from 2015 and for the next couple of seasons will depend on Tony Sanchez to man the dish for them until the youngsters in Low Class A make their move through the system.
Russ came as advertised; low BA, decent OBP and some pop (.226/.327, 15 HR, 55 RBI) with a strong presence behind the plate. He also came reputed to have a good glove and command of the staff. He led all catchers defensively per Fangraphs, and his WAR of 4.1 was fourth among receivers.
He's also not exactly cut out of the usual catching mold physically; he and Sanchez are both athletic. And that's pretty clutch if you're wiggling fingers at the Pirate pitchers; their sinkers, sliders, hooks and change ups bounce to the plate as often as they cross it.
Sanchez is going to be a storyline in the coming year. He was called up when Mike McKenry went down in late July and wasn't given a whole lot of opportunity. He hit .223 in 60 AB with a couple of homers, and looked pretty comfortable at catching an in-the-dirt staff. But he worked just 112 IP and really didn't get to wet his feet very much. So with the catching job wide open after the 2014 season, we'd expect to see the Pirates trot Tony out behind the plate a little more often.
The third guy in the mix is Mike McKenry, 28, everybody's favorite little engine that could. He's had a couple of clutch hits as a Bucco and is tough as nails, catching several innings in his last outing on a knee that would require surgery.
But The Fort, for his heroics and Pirate folk lore, has a lifetime OPS of .666, and that's jacked up by his 2012 outlier year. His OPS was .598 in 2011 and .610 last year.
His defense is OK, but he has troubles with baserunners. In two years, his toss-out rate is 16.5%. Russ Martin's rate was 40% (although it is misleading to have a top gun as your comparable; the league average was 27.5%). In a very small sample of 112 IP behind the plate, Sanchez threw out just 16.7% of the wanna-be stealers 1-of-6), but his 2012-13 Indy percentage of 26.5%. is probably a better indicator of his arm.
At any rate, The Fort should be back by the process of elimination; the minors are fairly barren above the Class A level. McKenry has an option left, and will almost surely start at Indy, partly to rehab fully from knee surgery and partly because he'd only be a block on Sanchez in Pittsburgh, especially with Martin's contract in the walk year. McKenry isn't due for arbitration until 2015, although with 2.136 years of service, he's almost a lock to qualify as a Super Two player. Either way, he won't be cost-prohibitive, and it would be smart to keep him around until the catching situation for 2015 becomes a little clearer.
John Buck, 33, who Pittsburgh picked up with Marlon Byrd for reasons unknown, is a MLB free agent and shouldn't be of much interest to the Pirates because of high cost and average defense.
The upper levels of the Buc organization are pretty thin with the loss of Sanchez. Indy's Lucas May is a minor league FA and will likely move on. Carlos Paulino, a good glove guy, will take his place. Defensively, he's big league, but his bat has never come around. Jacob Stalling is cut from the same mold and following in his D-first footsteps. Charlie Cutler will join Stalling in Altoona; he's the better bat but not highly regarded with the leather.
The toddler end of the farm has some projected potential, although predicting the future of young catchers is more art than science. (Remember Neil Walker?).
Wyatt Mathiesen, 19, was a second round pick in 2012. After a promising start his first year, last season was kinda lost. He was moved aggressively to Low A West Virginia as a teen in 2013, and didn't have a very strong year with the bat (.185). Likewise, he wasn't impressive receiving the ball, though he did have a 26% toss-out rate).
Generally considered the top prep catching prospect in the draft, Wyatt spent some of his HS playing time at SS and P, and didn't get a lot of reps at catching. He also had shoulder surgery last season, so it's hard to tell if he was moved a little faster than wise or was trying to work through a bum wing. This will be a year for him to reestablish himself. Mathiesen is the most athletic of the trio, and could, ala Walker, be shifted to another position.
Jin-De Jhang, 20, is Taiwanese and was an international signing in 2011. He's a good hitter, batting .288 in two minor league campaigns, although he's beginning to show some split gaps (he bats from the left side). Defensively, he's the furthest behind of the prospects, and the Pirates have been careful to move him along a step at a time to build his mechanical base.
McGuire, 18, was a first round pick (14th overall) this year, and acted like one in his GCL and Jamestown performances. He is the most likely of the trio to move smoothly through the Pirate system, as he's already got a background in some of the more intrinsic catching arts, like pitch calling, handling a staff, etc. as he began behind the dish in little league. His bat is the question, and we'll see how that plays as he advances.
Mathiesen, Jhang and McGuire are on track for Low A West Virginia this year, and it will be interesting - and maybe telling - to see how the Bucs break up the log jam. Our guess is that McGuire will be the top guy for the Power, backed by Mathiesen, with Jhing getting some work in Florida and then rejoining short-season Jamestown.
The Pirates are three-deep in MLB catchers for next year, and have some promise in the lower levels of the system. They're covered fairly well now unless Russ Martin goes down, but from 2015 and for the next couple of seasons will depend on Tony Sanchez to man the dish for them until the youngsters in Low Class A make their move through the system.
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