Arbitration Decisions Just Beginning

The Pirates' current FO has a pretty good field record with arbitration; they've only lost two of sixteen players, and never had a case decided by a hearing judge.

Their first season, without having even seen a player in action, they kept Jose Bautista, John Grabow, Adam LaRoche and Xavier Nady aboard with one-year contracts, Freddy Sanchez put his X on a two-year deal, and Jose Castillo got the boot.

After 2008, Zack Duke, John Grabow, Adam LaRoche, and Tyler Yates reached one-year deals, while Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm and Nate McLouth inked multi-year deals. Last year, Duke and Ronny Cedeno signed one year contracts; Matt Capps was non-tendered.

That, of course, is very likely to change this season because of performance and value issues. Eligible for arbitration this season are:

First year: Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Andy LaRoche, Lastings Milledge, Ross Ohlendorf and Delwyn Young.
Second year: Wil Ledezma.
Third year: Ronny Cedeno and Zach Duke.

They've already resolved one bubble case by signing Ledezma for $700K. Hanrahan, Ohlendorf and Cedeno are certain to get tendered, while Milledge and Young are also likely to get offers from the team. Duke, Karstens and LaRoche are on the fringe because of performance issues. We'll see what the brass decides; they have to tender an offer by December 2nd.

And the beat will go on; as a young team, arbitration will become a bigger and bigger issue as the years march by. After next season, the following guys will be up for arbitration (assuming everybody returns):

First year: Garrett Jones, Evan Meek, Charlie Morton, Chris Resop and Steve Pearce. Jose Ascanio, Sean Gallagher and Jason Jaramillo could join the list, and Andrew McCutchen has a good chance of becoming a "Super Two" player, getting four years of arb instead of the standard three.
Second year: Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Andy LaRoche, Lastings Milledge, Ross Ohlendorf and Delwyn Young.
Third year: Wil Ledezma

After the 2012 season, the arb-eligible list will read:

First year: John Bowker, Brian Burres, Jeff Clement, Kevin Hart, Joe Martinez and Neal Walker; Walker is the only guy who is odds-on favorite to reach 2012 as a Bucco.
Second year: Jose Ascanio, Sean Gallagher, Jason Jaramillo, Garrett Jones, Evan Meek, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Morton, Chris Resop and Steve Pearce.
Third year: Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Andy LaRoche, Lastings Milledge, Ross Ohlendorf and Delwyn Young.

And in 2013:

First year: Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, and Brad Lincoln, and possibly Pedro Ciriaco, Argenis Diaz, Chris Leroux, Daniel McCutchen and Alex Presley. There's an outside chance that an early 2011 call-up, like Rudy Owens or Bryan Morris, could sneak in, too.
Second year: John Bowker, Brian Burres, Jeff Clement, Kevin Hart, Joe Martinez and Neal Walker.
Third year: Jose Ascanio, Sean Gallagher, Jason Jaramillo, Garrett Jones, Evan Meek, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Morton, Chris Resop and Steve Pearce.

Free agency dates are:

2010: Chan Ho Park
2011: Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Doumit, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Chris Snyder.
2012: Wil Ledezma
2013: Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Andy LaRoche, Lastings Milledge, Ross Ohlendorf and Delwyn Young.
2014: Jose Ascanio, Sean Gallagher, Jason Jaramillo, Garrett Jones, Evan Meek, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Morton, Chris Resop and Steve Pearce.

The Pirates are approaching the time when Bob Nutting's wallet will have to be opened for the MLB product instead of the draft. This year shouldn't be too challenging, but after the 2011 season, the wheels will have to begin turning.

McCutch, Meek and Jones will join Hanrahan and Ohlie; Milledge, Morton, Pearce and Resop should have shown whether they're MLB players one way or the other in the coming year, too.

Then the decisions - tendering arb or not, contract dollars, and offering long term deals through the arb years - will show if the FO has the wherewithal and smarts to build a MLB team or will continually spin around in "prospect" mode.