Adam LaRoche - Should He Stay Or Should He Go?

Adam LaRoche is one of the Buc's more enigmatic figures. Laid back to the point that fans think he sometimes just doesn't care, but red-blooded enough to be the face man for a hunting organization.

In a team starved for production, he cranks out 25 homers and 85-90 RBI like clockwork, but spends much of the time batting sixth.

He's 29, so LaRoche is certainly young enough to be a key piece of the Pirates moving into the future. But many feel his dismal performance during the opening weeks of the season is one of the major reasons the Bucs are traditionally behind the eight ball by Memorial Day.

What to do with Adam LaRoche?

The Pirates are apparently unsure themselves, having broken off talks that began last year to ink him to a long-term deal and instead signing him to one year pacts worth $5M and $7.05M. This is it for arbitration, so 2009 is the last year he's under team control.

GW doesn't have a clue what figures LaRoche and the Pirates exchanged. But he does know this - there aren't very many first basemen running around in baseball today that can replace him, and certainly none in the Pittsburgh system (see the post below).

After a little checking, the closest comparable player we could find to LaRoche was the Yankee's Nick Swisher. He's 28, LH, and his 2006-08 batting stats are 1592 at-bats, .246/81/242.

Over the same period, LaRoche, 29, has been up 1547 times, and compiled a line of .275/78/263. Swisher makes $5.3M this year, part of a deal he signed in 2006 while with the Oakland A's.; LaRoche $7.05M. Both are considered above average glovemen.

From 2010-2012, Swisher will make $6.75M, $9M, and $10.25M (club option) for $26M. The Yankees have him on the market, and it's said to be pretty hot for his services, much hotter than the response to Xavier Nady, in fact.

LaRoche has the advantage of 2010 being his walk year when he can finally dive into the free agent market and test the waters. There are a couple of scenarios possible.

One is that the dearth of 1B leads him to the promised land of a sweet contract. LaRoche would be the top first sacker out; Nick Johnson is the next closest thing to a big name coming out to compete with him. Yah, it's that thin next year, although there could be a couple of options not picked up or non-tendered arb guys available, too.

Second would be that the economy continues to floor, and Obama and Congress for some reason decide not to bail out baseball. LaRoche could be treading water, looking for a deal that never materializes, falling into the category of a solid but not difference-making player.

The Pirates, too, are taking a roll of the dice. There is no one to replace him, and the market is bone dry in 2010. They can hope that the second scenario is the one that happens and he comes back home, but if LaRoche defies history and comes out hitting the ball in April, there will be virtually no chance to get him back in the fold.

And his status as a free agent after the season really puts a cap on what value the team can get in return for him if they decide to move him at the deadline.

The Pirates have said many times that they don't negotiate during the season. If that's the case, they don't have the luxury of seeing if LaRoche is past his April no-show. They have a span of a few weeks to hammer out a deal or in all likelihood lose him.

We say offer him three years at $30M - $8.5M in 2010, $10M in 2011, and $11.5M in 2012, with incentives for 30 HR and 100 RBI, plus the usual All-Star, Golden Glove, etc. honors. Hey, we could also live with a bit of an overpay if that's what it takes, considering both the upcoming market and the Pirates' depth.

Three years gives the Bucs a chance to groom someone, and lets LaRoche hit the market again at age 33, not very long in the tooth for a first sacker.

That's fair to us, although we have no idea what he's asked for; maybe Adam would think we're low-balling him, or the suits think we're throwing money away. C'est la vie.

But that's his value as we see it, and the team needs another contract out of him to compete in the coming seasons. We hope they do sign him, April follies or not.

Then we'll be convinced that they do intend to be a MLB contender by 2011 or 2012. He's a piece they can't replace in the near future.

Sunday pre game notes

> How consistent has Paul Maholm become? His last outing marked the 19th consecutive start in which he pitched at least six innings. Eleven of his 20 starts have lasted at least seven innings. Maholm is 3-2 with a 2.63 ERA over his past nine starts.

> Out of the reams of stuff written about Adam LaRoche, the one item that really sticks out is his RISP line. He's batting just .223 with runners in scoring position, which goes a long way towards explaining his disappointing 55 RBI year.

Last year, when he drove in 88 runs, his RISP average was .313. That might have been an anomaly, as he was a .255-.265 RISP hitter in his three seasons with the Braves. It surely suggests that he's better suited to the six hole instead of a prime RBI lineup spot in the middle of the order.

> We're a little surprised over the hubbub concerning Steve Pearce's demotion. He was auditioning with Brandon Moss for next year's RF spot, and was losing. Moss' line in Pittsburgh is .209-3-7 with a .312 OBP and .403 slugging %. (Overall in 2008, he's .255-5-18, .325/.434) Certainly, that's not mashing it.

But Pearce was just .224-0-7 with a .299 OBP and .349 slugging %. Moss runs and fields circles around him. Factor in Nyjer Morgan's showing at Indy and Nate McLouth's virus, and it probably wasn't that hard of a choice for the Pirates.

He'll be back in a week. Our guess is that Pearce will spend September battling Morgan, or maybe even Chris Duffy in the spring, for the fourth OF spot in 2009. He's the favorite, but he'll have to show some pop in his bat to seal the deal.

> Factoid of the day: Chris Duffy (4/20/80 DOB) is just 10 weeks older than Nyjer Morgan (7/2/80 DOB). Time sure flies.

> Mike from Hyzdu Headquarters caught the Curve game against New Hampshire, and saw the Pirate scouts out in force. His take is that they're checking out the Jay's AA position players at NH for the Player To Be Named as the return on the Jose Bautista deal.

> Brian Bixler may be getting groomed for a utility spot on the Bucs next year. He's been spending a little time at second, as 24-year old Luis Cruz, signed as a minor league free agent from the Padre organization, has been playing more and more at shortstop since being brought up from Altoona a month or so ago.

BB first played second base last year, and in 22 games over two years, has yet to make an error there. It's also a good way to get two bats into Indy's lineup, as Bixler is hitting .285 and Cruz .322.

> After winning 15 games last year, LHP Oliver Perez is 9-7 with a 3.93 ERA this season. Jon Heyman, in SI's Daily Scoop, believes the soon-to-be free agent and ex-Pirate will command $12M/year over 4 or 5 seasons when he hits the market.