Ron Cook of the Post Gazette wrote in his column that Cutch is expected to hit the 15-day DL with an oblique injury. That's what was feared when he was half-carried into the dugout yesterday, and an oblique can take a while to heal; we could be looking at a month. (EDIT - Rob Biertempfel's sources confirmed the oblique diagnosis, and while not confirming the DL trip, admitted it was likely but not yet certain.)
Was it related to getting drilled in the back Friday? Probably not. Though it may have indirectly contributed, the odds are likely that the issues are separate.
Andrew is hitting .311/.411/.536 with a 167 OPS+ and 32 doubles, 17 home runs, 67 RBI, 17 stolen bases and a league-leading 67 walks in 109 games this year, out-performing his 2013 MVP stat line. The Bucs can't duplicate that production.
With Josh going to the hot corner, it looks like Travis Snider will get more OF time, with Starling Marte taking over in center (and rehab or not, we'd bet that he'll be at PNC Park tomorrow.) Andrew Lambo has been mashing at Indy, but it's not likely that with Polanco and Snider on the active roster that another lefty OF'er (lookin' at you, Jaff Decker) will get the call. JT's not even on the 40-man roster anymore, though that could be rectified quickly if the Pirates so desire. Righty Mel Rojas Jr, who's been having a bit of a breakout year (.286 BA/.379 OBP at Indy) is a more remote possibility.
More likely is a waiver deal, although the other GM's will undoubtedly ask for the ranch for a rental, given the circumstances. It has been duly noted that Marlon Byrd is on waivers, as is much of the Philly team. It has also been duly noted that GM Ruben Amaro wants nothing less than a first-born son for his slackers. Byrd in particular has a high price, even though he has another year at $8M guaranteed on his contract with a vesting option for another $8M in 2016.
The Bucs are 10th in the NL on the waiver list claimants, so they may or may not have luck finding someone to drop to them. But some guys will clear; Wednesday would be the earliest that could happen, and we'll have a better idea of how the market develops as the week goes on.
The Pirates haven't commented yet, and why should they? They have until tomorrow to get the roster set. The lack of a denial is pretty much accepted as a back-hand confirmation in these cases.
It'll also provide us with a look at the Pirate brass in full-scramble mode. Marte, if they bring him up tomorrow, will swap out for the time being with Cutch. If Gerrit Cole returns at the end of the week or early next week he has a rehab start at Indy tomorrow), logic suggests assigning Edinson Volquez to the pen and sending Ernesto Frieri on his merry way. Jayson Nix/Michael Martinez also are spots waiting to be taken when Clint Barmes comes back.
Clint Hurdle has the decidedly difficult task of putting together a lineup card that doesn't include Cutch's name penciled in third. And finally, let's hope the long plane ride doesn't aggravate Neal Walker's stiff back.
Of course, injuries aren't unique to the Pirates. Milwaukee has been fairly bullet-proof this year, but the Cards have Yadier Molina and Michael Wacha out while the Reds lost Joey Votto for a spell and then Brandon Phillips. The Bucs have made do without Frankie Liriano, and still have Starling Marte and Gerrit Cole out, though they should be recalled soon.
For sure, there are a lot of moving pieces right now, and how the management pulls them together will have a big impact on the way the final fifty-some games and the pennant race play out.
Showing posts with label andrew mccutchen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label andrew mccutchen. Show all posts
Monday, August 4, 2014
Friday, November 15, 2013
Cutch - Is the Best To Come?
It was no surprise that Cutch won the NL-MVP last night; only the margin of victory (28-of-30 first place votes) was a stunner. He joins a select Bucco band that consists of Roberto Clemente, Dick Groat, Willie Stargell, Dave Parker and Barry Bonds (twice) to achieve that honor.
There's no question the 27 year old earned it. He hit .317/.404/.508 with a .911 OPS, 21 homers, 97 runs, 84 RBI, 27 stolen sacks, an 8.4 UZR/150 as a defender and a NL-leading 8.2 WAR in 2013. Cutch finished in the NL's top seven for BA, OBP, slugging and OPS. And being on a team that finally made a post season appearance didn't hurt the cause. Last year, he put up a better offensive line (.327/.400/.553, .953 OPS) but received just one first-place vote for MVP while finishing third.
The Bucs took him as the 11th overall pick in 2005, passing on guys like Jay Bruce (whom the brass were also considering), Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley. Though most folks think he was stuck in the minors too long (remember when learning to bunt was still on his check list?), the truth is that the Pirates fast tracked the high schooler. He went through the rookie leagues at 18, Class A at 19, and spent the next two seasons and some change in the upper levels. Cutch never disappointed, and was a Baseball America Top Fifty Prospect from the day he was drafted.
Forty-nine games into his 2009 season, Pittsburgh gave him the center field job, trading the popular All-Star Nate McLouth when his value was at its peak to Atlanta for Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernadez, who was later flipped for Gaby Sanchez.
He's had 5+ WAR for the past three seasons for a total of 20.4 WAR over that span, per Fangraphs (20.8 per Baseball Reference). Consider that 4 WAR during a season puts you in All-Star territory and 6 WAR merits MVP consideration. And that's where Cutch has been lately, with three AS berths, a third place MVP finish in 2012 and the whole enchilada this year.
And the cherry on top is that Cutch is a Buc for a long time. Just before the 2012 season opened, Cutch inked a deal that should max out at seven years, $66M (with bonuses, of which he's fairly certain to cash in), with the Bucs holding a 2018 team option. Will his value still be holding up into his age 31?
Sure should. beside being tied up for his prime production years, most indicators are that Cutch has become a more mature and productive player, beginning in 2012. For contract conspiracists, his pre-deal line was .276/.365/.458, while in the past two years it's been .322/.402/.531. Maybe there is something to be said about a nice warm security blanket.
But there's a lot more to base the future on. His line drive rate has increased from 20% to 24.5% over that span. He puts plenty of balls in play, too - his K rate was just 15% last year, and he's approached the MLB average of 20% only once in his career. It also shows in his walk rate; it's never been under 10.4% and his lifetime average is 11.4%. Cutch has the patience to go deep into counts and come out ahead.
McCutchen is a well reputed lefty masher, but in the past couple of seasons he's solved righties pretty well, too. In his first three campaigns he never reached a .280+ BA and had just one .800+ OPS against same-siders, but in the past two years he's hit .309 BA/.900 OPS and .302 BA/.864 OPS against RHP.
His power has pretty much settled in. In the past three years, Cutch has lost 75 baseballs with a .190 ISO or better and about a 12% FB/HR ratio, so a ballpark figure of 25 homers looks to be sustainable. And his slugging percentage (.489 lifetime) will remain strong as long as his wheels do, giving him those extra power-padding leg doubles. It also helps pad his BABIP. Cutch has had one season when his balls-in-play % was under .311, and it sits at .322 lifetime.
His baserunning does more than send caps flying; Bill James estimates that he's created 13 runs on the bases in the past two years.
That elite speed will help him in the outfield, too. Despite low defensive ratings in 2012, McCutchen bounced back with his best season in the field. His range improved: he went from costing the team five runs in 2012 to saving seven last year (per Bill James), and he has a quicker, more accurate release now on his throws, a necessity due to his quite average arm. And a saving grace is that he's not locked into center into his 30s; with Starling Marte on his flank, the loss of a step just requires a switch of spots.
So speed, patience, defense and passable power are all there. Cutch is also said to be the hardest worker on the team; every season there's an aspect of his game that you can see he's dedicated the off season to improving.
There are a couple of cracks in Cutch's armor. While generally patient at the dish, he has to guard against his tendency to pull the ball the way he did in 2011, when he hit .259. He's a more dangerous hitter going gap-to-gap. McCutchen can't exactly be considered a streak hitter, but he seems to settle into a fairly deep funk during some point in the season; fortunately, in 2013 it was at the start of the year rather than the finish.
Defensively, he has to play with a mental edge. He'll get to balls other guys wave at, but his arm will always require forethought to be effective. He averages nine assists a year, and that's more a testament to opponents running on him than his lasers.He could be a more vocal leader, but his on-and-off field example and the times he does take the dugout floor are more than enough. But enough with the quibbling.
Cutch is set up to have a long run as da man in Pittsburgh. His speed and peripherals support his counting numbers, and they should only go higher as Cutch gets deeper into his career and hopefully surrounded by more talent.
It's hard to post WAR numbers like Cutch's, and we doubt that even he could keep running up 6+ WAR every year. But it's easy to see him as the club's automatic All-Star, and there's no reason to believe that won't last through his contract.
There's no question the 27 year old earned it. He hit .317/.404/.508 with a .911 OPS, 21 homers, 97 runs, 84 RBI, 27 stolen sacks, an 8.4 UZR/150 as a defender and a NL-leading 8.2 WAR in 2013. Cutch finished in the NL's top seven for BA, OBP, slugging and OPS. And being on a team that finally made a post season appearance didn't hurt the cause. Last year, he put up a better offensive line (.327/.400/.553, .953 OPS) but received just one first-place vote for MVP while finishing third.
The Bucs took him as the 11th overall pick in 2005, passing on guys like Jay Bruce (whom the brass were also considering), Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley. Though most folks think he was stuck in the minors too long (remember when learning to bunt was still on his check list?), the truth is that the Pirates fast tracked the high schooler. He went through the rookie leagues at 18, Class A at 19, and spent the next two seasons and some change in the upper levels. Cutch never disappointed, and was a Baseball America Top Fifty Prospect from the day he was drafted.
Forty-nine games into his 2009 season, Pittsburgh gave him the center field job, trading the popular All-Star Nate McLouth when his value was at its peak to Atlanta for Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernadez, who was later flipped for Gaby Sanchez.
He's had 5+ WAR for the past three seasons for a total of 20.4 WAR over that span, per Fangraphs (20.8 per Baseball Reference). Consider that 4 WAR during a season puts you in All-Star territory and 6 WAR merits MVP consideration. And that's where Cutch has been lately, with three AS berths, a third place MVP finish in 2012 and the whole enchilada this year.
And the cherry on top is that Cutch is a Buc for a long time. Just before the 2012 season opened, Cutch inked a deal that should max out at seven years, $66M (with bonuses, of which he's fairly certain to cash in), with the Bucs holding a 2018 team option. Will his value still be holding up into his age 31?
Sure should. beside being tied up for his prime production years, most indicators are that Cutch has become a more mature and productive player, beginning in 2012. For contract conspiracists, his pre-deal line was .276/.365/.458, while in the past two years it's been .322/.402/.531. Maybe there is something to be said about a nice warm security blanket.
But there's a lot more to base the future on. His line drive rate has increased from 20% to 24.5% over that span. He puts plenty of balls in play, too - his K rate was just 15% last year, and he's approached the MLB average of 20% only once in his career. It also shows in his walk rate; it's never been under 10.4% and his lifetime average is 11.4%. Cutch has the patience to go deep into counts and come out ahead.
McCutchen is a well reputed lefty masher, but in the past couple of seasons he's solved righties pretty well, too. In his first three campaigns he never reached a .280+ BA and had just one .800+ OPS against same-siders, but in the past two years he's hit .309 BA/.900 OPS and .302 BA/.864 OPS against RHP.
His power has pretty much settled in. In the past three years, Cutch has lost 75 baseballs with a .190 ISO or better and about a 12% FB/HR ratio, so a ballpark figure of 25 homers looks to be sustainable. And his slugging percentage (.489 lifetime) will remain strong as long as his wheels do, giving him those extra power-padding leg doubles. It also helps pad his BABIP. Cutch has had one season when his balls-in-play % was under .311, and it sits at .322 lifetime.
His baserunning does more than send caps flying; Bill James estimates that he's created 13 runs on the bases in the past two years.
That elite speed will help him in the outfield, too. Despite low defensive ratings in 2012, McCutchen bounced back with his best season in the field. His range improved: he went from costing the team five runs in 2012 to saving seven last year (per Bill James), and he has a quicker, more accurate release now on his throws, a necessity due to his quite average arm. And a saving grace is that he's not locked into center into his 30s; with Starling Marte on his flank, the loss of a step just requires a switch of spots.
So speed, patience, defense and passable power are all there. Cutch is also said to be the hardest worker on the team; every season there's an aspect of his game that you can see he's dedicated the off season to improving.
There are a couple of cracks in Cutch's armor. While generally patient at the dish, he has to guard against his tendency to pull the ball the way he did in 2011, when he hit .259. He's a more dangerous hitter going gap-to-gap. McCutchen can't exactly be considered a streak hitter, but he seems to settle into a fairly deep funk during some point in the season; fortunately, in 2013 it was at the start of the year rather than the finish.
Defensively, he has to play with a mental edge. He'll get to balls other guys wave at, but his arm will always require forethought to be effective. He averages nine assists a year, and that's more a testament to opponents running on him than his lasers.He could be a more vocal leader, but his on-and-off field example and the times he does take the dugout floor are more than enough. But enough with the quibbling.
Cutch is set up to have a long run as da man in Pittsburgh. His speed and peripherals support his counting numbers, and they should only go higher as Cutch gets deeper into his career and hopefully surrounded by more talent.
It's hard to post WAR numbers like Cutch's, and we doubt that even he could keep running up 6+ WAR every year. But it's easy to see him as the club's automatic All-Star, and there's no reason to believe that won't last through his contract.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Cutch Is Golden
Andrew McCutchen had a breakout year in 2012. He hit .327 with 31 home runs,
107 runs, 96 RBIs and 20 stolen bases while playing in 157 games for the Bucs. Cutch was picked as a NL All-Star for the second straight season, this time as a player's choice, and was part of the State Farm Home Run Derby during the KC festivities.
You can add a Gold Glove to his 2012 trophy case. And if he doesn't have a hardware cabinet, no problem: USA Today reported that Cutch even got a $25,000 bonus for the award, so he can afford to go out and get one.
The Gold Glove Awards are selected by the managers and coaches, who can't vote for their own players. Cutch outpolled the other two finalists, Cincinnati's Drew Stubbs and Atlanta's two-time Gold Glove winner Michael Bourn (Houston 2009-10), to take the honor. Cutch led all NL center fielders with a .997 fielding percentage, charged with just one error in 371 chances, and finished the season with a 135-game streak without a boot.
Roberto Clemente won a MLB record 12 Gold Gloves and Andy Van Slyke won five, while Bill Virdon and Nate McLouth each earned one. Other Pirate outfielders to be voted a Golden Glove were Dave Parker and Barry Bonds, with three each. Add Cutch to the Golden Bucco club.
Of course, we know that Golden Gloves are predicated on golden bats; hence Nate the Great's gold mitt in 2008 and Clint Barme's non-consideration this season. Chase Headley won the award ahead of David Wright in the NL and Adam Jones won the vote over human highlight reel Mike Trout in the AL this year to bolster that thought.
Michael Bourn blew the doors off Cutch defensively in most stat-head categories: his UZR was 22.4 to Cutch's -6.9. Bourn made 113 plays out of the centerfield zone to McCutch's 78, and both had 3 assists. Cutch did beat him in RZR, which measures balls hit into the zone that were converted into outs; Cutch turned .933 of those into sit-downs, while Bourn wrapped his mitt around .913 of balls in his area.
We'll defend Cutch from the Sabremetric slap down a little. We've watched him enough to know he still freezes sometimes on his initial jump and hitting the cut-off man is a concept that hasn't quite sunk in yet. But he's improved leaps and bounds since his 2009 debut.
Cutch has run down more than his fair share of gappers and slid under quite a few CF lobs. And since he's been here, his zone rating has been crimped by the Bucs double-CF defense, using center field talent in left to better cover PNC's Notch acreage, so that UZR is artificially low to us.
All in all, we consider Cutch an above average fielder with plus speed who plays better than the defensive metrics show, but not elite with the leather or his arm. Heck, he may well pass the torch to Starling Marte one day. But hey, 31 dingers and 194 hits make that glove look a little bigger, at least in the eyes of the guys watching plenty of dinks and drives disappear into his web.
And he may not be quite done. Cutch is in the final five for the upcoming NL-MVP award. His (and the club's) late fade probably cost him that shiny bit of metal, but we'll see November 15th.
You can add a Gold Glove to his 2012 trophy case. And if he doesn't have a hardware cabinet, no problem: USA Today reported that Cutch even got a $25,000 bonus for the award, so he can afford to go out and get one.
The Gold Glove Awards are selected by the managers and coaches, who can't vote for their own players. Cutch outpolled the other two finalists, Cincinnati's Drew Stubbs and Atlanta's two-time Gold Glove winner Michael Bourn (Houston 2009-10), to take the honor. Cutch led all NL center fielders with a .997 fielding percentage, charged with just one error in 371 chances, and finished the season with a 135-game streak without a boot.
Roberto Clemente won a MLB record 12 Gold Gloves and Andy Van Slyke won five, while Bill Virdon and Nate McLouth each earned one. Other Pirate outfielders to be voted a Golden Glove were Dave Parker and Barry Bonds, with three each. Add Cutch to the Golden Bucco club.
Of course, we know that Golden Gloves are predicated on golden bats; hence Nate the Great's gold mitt in 2008 and Clint Barme's non-consideration this season. Chase Headley won the award ahead of David Wright in the NL and Adam Jones won the vote over human highlight reel Mike Trout in the AL this year to bolster that thought.
Michael Bourn blew the doors off Cutch defensively in most stat-head categories: his UZR was 22.4 to Cutch's -6.9. Bourn made 113 plays out of the centerfield zone to McCutch's 78, and both had 3 assists. Cutch did beat him in RZR, which measures balls hit into the zone that were converted into outs; Cutch turned .933 of those into sit-downs, while Bourn wrapped his mitt around .913 of balls in his area.
We'll defend Cutch from the Sabremetric slap down a little. We've watched him enough to know he still freezes sometimes on his initial jump and hitting the cut-off man is a concept that hasn't quite sunk in yet. But he's improved leaps and bounds since his 2009 debut.
Cutch has run down more than his fair share of gappers and slid under quite a few CF lobs. And since he's been here, his zone rating has been crimped by the Bucs double-CF defense, using center field talent in left to better cover PNC's Notch acreage, so that UZR is artificially low to us.
All in all, we consider Cutch an above average fielder with plus speed who plays better than the defensive metrics show, but not elite with the leather or his arm. Heck, he may well pass the torch to Starling Marte one day. But hey, 31 dingers and 194 hits make that glove look a little bigger, at least in the eyes of the guys watching plenty of dinks and drives disappear into his web.
And he may not be quite done. Cutch is in the final five for the upcoming NL-MVP award. His (and the club's) late fade probably cost him that shiny bit of metal, but we'll see November 15th.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Andrew's All Star Adventure
Yah, yah, everybody is on Andrew McCutchen's bandwagon; been that way since the middle of last season. And what better place than the All-Star game to convince the remaining doubters and get a little national love?
It got off to a bit of a bumpy start on the flight to Kauffman Stadium when Cutch tweeted "So in Minneapolis and delayed til 11:10 central time...#Awesome...Giants players=private jet...pirates=coach." Columnist Ron Cook of the Post Gazette took exception. McCutch replied lighten up, it was just a cyber joke. Whether it was a beef or a self-depreciating yuk, we suspect McCutchen learned a little lesson about how nuance is lost in a 140 character format with his teapot tempest, and maybe how much everyone dissects a star's simple tweet. And he is a star.
ESPN had a sort of shaky presentation of McCutch. Chris Berman stuttered and blanked out at the end of Cutch's Home Run Derby intro, and the network talking heads interviewed Josh Hamilton the entire time Cutch was up during the derby (they did the same for CarGo). The TV crowd missed the tale of McCutch, the first place Buccos, his high school coach feeding him pitches... But it certainly wasn't all bad; there was big love given during other ESPN pieces for both Andrew and the club.
And btw, he hit four long balls (one went 436'), doubling the previous Pirate high held by Barry Bonds while smoking a few liners, his usual MO. So much for ruining his swing.
It sure didn't in the game. He came in after the yelling was over - with the NL's five run first, that was true of everyone who didn't start - and in the sixth lined a single to left off the White Sox' Chris Sales, a lefty, of course. He even flashed a Zoltan after the knock, though TV missed it. Sales and Cutch go way back to high school days in Lakeland, Florida, and McCutch remembers homering off him in high school. Didn't go long this time, but a guy's first All-Star hit ranks right up there. He also bounced out to third against Tampa Bay's Fernando Rodney in the ninth.
He even was gettin' down to James Brown during the pre-game promo sessions, so we guess a good time was had by all. Now back to the regular season; can he possibly improve on a .362/18/60 slash line with 58 runs and 14 stole sacks? If so, he could be contending for a Triple Crown, and those MVP chants could be forecasting the real thing.
And let's not forget Hanny. Joel made his entrance with one out and one on in the bottom of the ninth inning as Tony LaRussa tried to get everyone in the game. Hanrahan faced hometown son Billy Butler of the Royals, and provided his usual drama. He got "Country Breakfast" to fish for a slider during an eight-pitch at bat to finish a K, with a couple of wild pitches thrown in. Now Carlos Ruiz can appreciate what Hot Rod and The Fort face on an everyday basis. He did clock 98 on his heater, and though he disappointed the KC fans, he did thrill the homies from his native haunt of Des Moines, who were out in force to watch him at work.
It got off to a bit of a bumpy start on the flight to Kauffman Stadium when Cutch tweeted "So in Minneapolis and delayed til 11:10 central time...
ESPN had a sort of shaky presentation of McCutch. Chris Berman stuttered and blanked out at the end of Cutch's Home Run Derby intro, and the network talking heads interviewed Josh Hamilton the entire time Cutch was up during the derby (they did the same for CarGo). The TV crowd missed the tale of McCutch, the first place Buccos, his high school coach feeding him pitches... But it certainly wasn't all bad; there was big love given during other ESPN pieces for both Andrew and the club.
And btw, he hit four long balls (one went 436'), doubling the previous Pirate high held by Barry Bonds while smoking a few liners, his usual MO. So much for ruining his swing.
It sure didn't in the game. He came in after the yelling was over - with the NL's five run first, that was true of everyone who didn't start - and in the sixth lined a single to left off the White Sox' Chris Sales, a lefty, of course. He even flashed a Zoltan after the knock, though TV missed it. Sales and Cutch go way back to high school days in Lakeland, Florida, and McCutch remembers homering off him in high school. Didn't go long this time, but a guy's first All-Star hit ranks right up there. He also bounced out to third against Tampa Bay's Fernando Rodney in the ninth.
He even was gettin' down to James Brown during the pre-game promo sessions, so we guess a good time was had by all. Now back to the regular season; can he possibly improve on a .362/18/60 slash line with 58 runs and 14 stole sacks? If so, he could be contending for a Triple Crown, and those MVP chants could be forecasting the real thing.
And let's not forget Hanny. Joel made his entrance with one out and one on in the bottom of the ninth inning as Tony LaRussa tried to get everyone in the game. Hanrahan faced hometown son Billy Butler of the Royals, and provided his usual drama. He got "Country Breakfast" to fish for a slider during an eight-pitch at bat to finish a K, with a couple of wild pitches thrown in. Now Carlos Ruiz can appreciate what Hot Rod and The Fort face on an everyday basis. He did clock 98 on his heater, and though he disappointed the KC fans, he did thrill the homies from his native haunt of Des Moines, who were out in force to watch him at work.
- Two guesses as to the NL Player of the week, on top of being named the June Player of the Month - aw, you got it.
- Matt Snyder of the Eye On Baseball digs "The Unbelievable And Still Underrated Andrew McCutchen"
- The Pirates will discount tickets in each the Lower Outfield Box and Outfield Box area of PNC Park for the July 23rd 25th Cub series to $18 in honor of Cutch's 18 long flies.
- Bruce Keidan's 2010 piece on the young Cutch - "Eye On The Ball" from the Pittsburgh Quarterly. He was a special kid even in high school, and not just as an athlete.
- Andrew Logue of the Des Moines Register covers Hanny's career.
Monday, March 5, 2012
McCutch Makes His Deal
The Pirates and Andrew McCutchen, 25, struck a six-year deal that will carry the All-Star centerfielder through his arbitration and first two free agency years, with an option for 2018 according to Mike Sanserino and Bill Brink of the Post Gazette. All that's left is the physical.
The template for a deal has been out there for a couple of seasons, using Justin Upton and Jay Bruce contracts as models, as they eventually did.
Upton's 2010 contract was signed for 6 years/$51.25M, while Bruce's 2011 deal was inked for 6 years/$51M with a $13M option year. All three players signed after their third year and strong WAR seasons - Uptons' was 4.8 in '09, Bruce's 4.6 in '10, and McCutch's 5.5 in '11. All three players were selected as Top Twelve picks in the 2005 draft.
While there are few details out yet, the basic McCutch agreement covers six years, including this coming one, and is worth $51.5M with a team option for $14.75M in 2018. That breaks down to an average of $8.583M/season. He'll start with $500K this year, plus $1.25M in signing bonus money per the Trib's Rob Biertempfel.
(EDIT: Sanserino tweeted the terms: 2012: $1.25M bonus + $500k 2013: $4.5M 2014: $7.25M 2015: $10M 2016: $13M 2017: $14M 2018: 1M buyout or $14.75M club option.)
The Bucs got a bit of a break, as McCutchen's agent, Steve Hammond, let the Pirates slide on inflation (not the US rate, but its MLB counterpart) and didn't press Cutch's superior consistency (In three seasons, McCutchen has compiled 12.4 WAR. In five, Upton has 11.5 and Bruce, in four years, 6.3). We thought that McCutch would make a case for $55M or better.
Still, the contract is the second biggest in team history, topped on by Jason Kendall's 6 year/$60M deal from 2002.
So both sides should be happy, and the team's best player is locked up for the foreseeable future, with Neil Walker being next in line. We'll say this for the FO - they've made an effort this year to solidify the MLB team, a different and welcome approach. Let's hope the stability pays some dividends in the next season or two.
The template for a deal has been out there for a couple of seasons, using Justin Upton and Jay Bruce contracts as models, as they eventually did.
Upton's 2010 contract was signed for 6 years/$51.25M, while Bruce's 2011 deal was inked for 6 years/$51M with a $13M option year. All three players signed after their third year and strong WAR seasons - Uptons' was 4.8 in '09, Bruce's 4.6 in '10, and McCutch's 5.5 in '11. All three players were selected as Top Twelve picks in the 2005 draft.
While there are few details out yet, the basic McCutch agreement covers six years, including this coming one, and is worth $51.5M with a team option for $14.75M in 2018. That breaks down to an average of $8.583M/season. He'll start with $500K this year, plus $1.25M in signing bonus money per the Trib's Rob Biertempfel.
(EDIT: Sanserino tweeted the terms: 2012: $1.25M bonus + $500k 2013: $4.5M 2014: $7.25M 2015: $10M 2016: $13M 2017: $14M 2018: 1M buyout or $14.75M club option.)
The Bucs got a bit of a break, as McCutchen's agent, Steve Hammond, let the Pirates slide on inflation (not the US rate, but its MLB counterpart) and didn't press Cutch's superior consistency (In three seasons, McCutchen has compiled 12.4 WAR. In five, Upton has 11.5 and Bruce, in four years, 6.3). We thought that McCutch would make a case for $55M or better.
Still, the contract is the second biggest in team history, topped on by Jason Kendall's 6 year/$60M deal from 2002.
So both sides should be happy, and the team's best player is locked up for the foreseeable future, with Neil Walker being next in line. We'll say this for the FO - they've made an effort this year to solidify the MLB team, a different and welcome approach. Let's hope the stability pays some dividends in the next season or two.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
McCutch: Will He Stay Or Will He Go?
One of the hot sidebars at the end of the season was whether the Bucs and Andrew McCutchen could work out a deal that would keep McCutch a Pirate past his arbitration years. He missed out on Super Two status this season, so 2012 is his last year of minimum wage before arb kicks in.
After 420 games in a Pittsburgh uniform, the 24 year old has put up a line of .276/51/199 with 78 stolen bases, 255 runs scored, an OPS of +123 and a WAR of 12.4. The WAR is a little on the low side, as the Pirates' oddball outfield alignment under JR and Gary Varsho netted him a -0.7 defensive score during his first two go-arounds, improving to +0.7 in 2011 under Clint Hurdle's more conventional set-up.
The parameters for a contract, if a deal is made in the coming weeks, would be for six years (2012-2017) if it were to hold any value for the Pirates. There's not much team incentive to strike an agreement if a couple of years of free agency aren't included except for some cost certainty.
Imperfect but useful comparables for a contract are out there. Justin Upton and Jay Bruce both signed deals that bought out their first two free-agency years with an approximately $51M price tag. They went about it slightly different ways. Upton's deal is backloaded so that he gets $14M+ during his walk years, while Bruce spread his money out more evenly over the six seasons and included a team option. But the overall pot of money remained about the same in both cases.
The Pirate FO has been fairly mum about the whole affair, as has the McCutchen posse. No terms, either for length or salary, have become public except for the posing, so we're left to sort through the deals like Upton's and Bruce's as the gold standard. What are the sides looking for?
For the Pirates, a long-term contract with McCutch would allow them to plan on a core that should begin to come together in 2014-15, with the big if - if Jameson Taillon and Gerritt Cole end up being all that. Losing McCutch, who would be in his prime production years, would take some of the shine off that apple. PR-wise, it would just reinforce the fan feeling that All-Star performance in Pittsburgh leads to a plane ticket and another batch of prospects.
Then again, that may be just the road that management intends to walk down. In the Tampa model, once players hit their high-payroll seasons, they're moved to accumulate more talent for their system. If that's the Pittsburgh plan, they have no bigger stocking-stuffer than McCutch.
And, of course, without the threat of arbitration, the FO may be content to sit on another year of McCutch's services on the cheap. We feel that's a short-sighted view, even if it does keep Bob Nutting's CPAs happy.
On McCutchen's end, it's just a matter of weighing security against uncertainty. Six years is a long time to commit to one organization, especially one with a track record like the Pirates. And when he hits the free market in 2016, he's sure to be looking at $15M and probably more given his durability, tools and performance to date. It could be that's when he'll look for the security blanket of a long term contract.
But what he has to consider is that he is under team control for four of those six seasons. Will he and his adviser (he's represented by Steve Hammond, whose other big-time client is Adam Wainwright) opt to cede those two FA years at a discount for long-term protection against slumps, injuries, and the vagaries of arbitration or go for the brass ring? It's hard to tell; Hammond doesn't have enough work with elite clients to hazard a guess.
It comes down to this: a template is in place for both sides to use as a starting point. Whether either side wants to accept that blueprint as common ground is the question. Heck, we don't even know that they're talking to each other. This much is certain - the longer the Pirates wait to lock down McCutch, the more difficult and expensive reaching an acceptable deal becomes, and the closer the center fielder gets to his walk/trade season.
After 420 games in a Pittsburgh uniform, the 24 year old has put up a line of .276/51/199 with 78 stolen bases, 255 runs scored, an OPS of +123 and a WAR of 12.4. The WAR is a little on the low side, as the Pirates' oddball outfield alignment under JR and Gary Varsho netted him a -0.7 defensive score during his first two go-arounds, improving to +0.7 in 2011 under Clint Hurdle's more conventional set-up.
The parameters for a contract, if a deal is made in the coming weeks, would be for six years (2012-2017) if it were to hold any value for the Pirates. There's not much team incentive to strike an agreement if a couple of years of free agency aren't included except for some cost certainty.
Imperfect but useful comparables for a contract are out there. Justin Upton and Jay Bruce both signed deals that bought out their first two free-agency years with an approximately $51M price tag. They went about it slightly different ways. Upton's deal is backloaded so that he gets $14M+ during his walk years, while Bruce spread his money out more evenly over the six seasons and included a team option. But the overall pot of money remained about the same in both cases.
The Pirate FO has been fairly mum about the whole affair, as has the McCutchen posse. No terms, either for length or salary, have become public except for the posing, so we're left to sort through the deals like Upton's and Bruce's as the gold standard. What are the sides looking for?
For the Pirates, a long-term contract with McCutch would allow them to plan on a core that should begin to come together in 2014-15, with the big if - if Jameson Taillon and Gerritt Cole end up being all that. Losing McCutch, who would be in his prime production years, would take some of the shine off that apple. PR-wise, it would just reinforce the fan feeling that All-Star performance in Pittsburgh leads to a plane ticket and another batch of prospects.
Then again, that may be just the road that management intends to walk down. In the Tampa model, once players hit their high-payroll seasons, they're moved to accumulate more talent for their system. If that's the Pittsburgh plan, they have no bigger stocking-stuffer than McCutch.
And, of course, without the threat of arbitration, the FO may be content to sit on another year of McCutch's services on the cheap. We feel that's a short-sighted view, even if it does keep Bob Nutting's CPAs happy.
On McCutchen's end, it's just a matter of weighing security against uncertainty. Six years is a long time to commit to one organization, especially one with a track record like the Pirates. And when he hits the free market in 2016, he's sure to be looking at $15M and probably more given his durability, tools and performance to date. It could be that's when he'll look for the security blanket of a long term contract.
But what he has to consider is that he is under team control for four of those six seasons. Will he and his adviser (he's represented by Steve Hammond, whose other big-time client is Adam Wainwright) opt to cede those two FA years at a discount for long-term protection against slumps, injuries, and the vagaries of arbitration or go for the brass ring? It's hard to tell; Hammond doesn't have enough work with elite clients to hazard a guess.
It comes down to this: a template is in place for both sides to use as a starting point. Whether either side wants to accept that blueprint as common ground is the question. Heck, we don't even know that they're talking to each other. This much is certain - the longer the Pirates wait to lock down McCutch, the more difficult and expensive reaching an acceptable deal becomes, and the closer the center fielder gets to his walk/trade season.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Pellas on the Pirates: The Case for Trading (Gulp!) Andrew McCutchen
No, wait! Hear me out! Put the pitchforks and torches down....that's it.....deep breaths, everybody. I'm here tonight, with Pirates Nation in front of me and PNC Park in the background, to discuss a course of action that might---might---possibly make sense for the Pirates at this point in time. That course of action is: trading Andrew McCutchen.
Before you have me keelhauled, consider these points: first and most importantly, it appears that he doesn’t want to be here long term. Not really. Why’s that, you ask? Well, according to at least one voice in the blogosphere, the much-maligned (often rightly, but not in this case) Pirates front office actually tried to emulate the Rays’ early career, pre-emptive, big-but-not-obscene-money signing of Evan Longoria when the team suits offered Andrew a long term deal of his own---and this not once, but twice.
Both times, Andrew said no. Before you respond by saying, “What’s so unusual about that? Players and their agents do that sort of thing all the time”, consider the examples of two other current major leaguers: the Angels’ Jared Weaver and our own Jose Tabata.
Weaver, one of the best starting pitchers in the American League, ignored the, ahem, “advice” of his agent, Scot Beelze-Boras, and signed a 6 year contract extension for about $85 million. His reasons? One, he was happy in Anaheim and wanted to put the distraction of contract negotiations behind him so he could get back to playing ball. Two, as he himself put it, “If I can’t live the rest of my life on $85 million, I’m pretty stupid”.
In other words, how much does any one man need….really? Once you factor in taxes and living expenses, both of which are going to be considerably higher in the large markets Andrew is presumably eying once his time in Pittsburgh is done, is a few million more or even $10 or $20 million more in another city really going to make that much difference to a player’s bottom line?
I don’t think so, yet Andrew has said no. Twice.
And now Tabata. While no one disputes the fact that Jose is not the elite or near-elite talent that Andrew is, nevertheless he’s pretty good. Tabata, like Weaver, told his agent(s) to jump in the lake and signed an early career contract extension that made him a multimillionaire while also giving him the opportunity to play right field in Pittsburgh ---like his longtime role model, Roberto Clemente
Certainly Tabata is no Clemente. But there is no doubt---zero---that he can really hit (just not with a lot of home runs) and really play defense and even steal some bases. With him, it’s all a question of whether he can stay healthy. If he’s on the field, he’s hitting and he’s catching everything in the vicinity, it’s that simple.
But the most important factor with him is this: he wants to be here. Obviously. So he got a deal done, and done quickly. Not so McCutchen. Why not?
Of course, it’s entirely possible that Andrew is waiting to see what will happen with the current rebuilding plan before he commits to staying in town past the maximum six years the Pirates can retain him before he hits the open market as a free agent. You only live once, Andrew is a big market talent, and maybe he wants the experience of being in the national spotlight to look back upon as he bounces his grandchildren on his knees. Okay. I get that.
But it only returns us to the first point: he doesn’t, or at least apparently doesn’t, want to be here, in Pittsburgh , long term. At minimum, he’s given no indication that that is what he wants to do.
Well, okay. Let’s assume for the sake of this discussion that Andrew wants to bolt for the brighter lights and bigger stage once his six year stay in Pittsburgh is over. Or even sooner than that, if the right scenario were to present itself. If…IF…that’s true, it makes sense to deal him now or in the next off season at the latest. That’s because he’ll be all the more valuable in a down economy as a trading chip who combines elite or near-elite talent with a salary that is not yet in the stratospheric locale that it will reach soon enough.
In other words, right now, and for the next year or two, he will be just about the most bang for the buck any team could possibly have in its starting outfield. There might be a handful of better ballplayers around the majors, but few if any play as well as Andrew does for the money he makes. Therefore, his potential value in trade is never going to be as high as it is now and for the next year or two. After that, his salary will zoom climb, even over his last couple of Pirates seasons if he spends the full six years in black and gold.
In other words, there’s more than one way to maximize the asset that is Andrew McCutchen. Hanging onto him for six years as the reluctant centerpiece of the current rebuilding project, all the while making long term, multimillion dollar offer after fruitless offer, is not the only road down which the team can travel.
Trading him alone or with other major and/or minor league Pirates in a blockbuster deal that would net 2 or 3 or 4 players in return, in some combination of productive, current major leaguers and top prospects, should definitely not be out of the question for the Pirates. Of course, trusting Neal Huntington to be the man who would pull the trigger on such a trade is….well, it would be interesting, let’s put it that way.
The GM who has proven more than capable of making very astute junkheap pickups like Garrett Jones is the same one who evidently either can’t be bothered with the most basic medical due diligence (Iwamura, Hart, Ascanio, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen, Matt Diaz) or else is knowingly gambling on players who are already hurt before they ever get here.
We’re talking about the guy who gave former National League batting champion Freddy Sanchez to the Giants in exchange for a fading A-ball pitcher with diminished velocity. We’re talking about the guy who is hoping against hope that Bryan Morris will prove to be some modicum of return for Jason Bay, because everyone else the Pirates got in exchange for Bay long ago washed out of Pittsburgh and down the Ohio River.
On the other hand, this is also the guy who made excellent trades with the Yankees and the Dodgers and turned the likes of Octavio Dotel, Xavier Nady, and Damaso Marte into Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, and others.
Andrew McCutchen, without question, is a very good major league baseball player. But he is not great. Definitely not. Want proof? In terms of his raw athletic tools, he is no worse than a righthanded batting version of Carl Crawford. Another player from the recent past who was quite similar to Andrew was Marquis Grissom.
But despite being in the same class as those two and other fleet-footed types in terms of pure foot speed, McCutchen is not a good base stealer. In fact, he’s barely average. And he is a significantly lesser player in terms of his base thievery than a guy with his speed ought to be. Even in an era of baseball dominated by sabermetric thinking - which postulates that it is better to steal smaller numbers of bases at an 80% or better success rate than to force the action in higher risk situations - even with all that, any player with McCutchen’s blazing speed should be logging 40 or more swipes every season.
Andrew’s career high of 33, set last season, is a respectable total but nowhere close to what he is capable of doing. And those 33 steals came with 10 caught stealing. This year his total regressed to 23, with another 10 caught stealing. His success rate over the past two seasons combined is a middling 74%, though it is higher for his career thanks to his 22 for 27 effort as a rookie. But the rather surprising downward trend in his steals leads us to our final point.
When I watch Andrew McCutchen, I see a player who, while definitely, indisputably, and consistently pretty good since the very start of his career, is also a guy who’s just not getting much better as he approaches what should be his peak seasons. This is very odd, especially for a guy with his talent, but it is not without precedent in major league history.
Fred Lynn, the old Boston Red Sox standby, rarely approached and never exceeded his incredible rookie season despite a long and productive career. Andrew’s rookie season, which did not begin until June of that year, did not approach the heights that Lynn reached, but he still posted a .286 average average with 12 home runs and 22 steals. This year his average sank to .259, though this was offset to some extent by his career-high 23 home runs.
As mentioned above, his steals also fell off this year from 33 to 23, and he had the worst success rate of his career, just under 70%. Now, maybe he’s still a young guy who’s “adjusting to the adjustments” and he’ll put it all together next year or the year after. But maybe not. Maybe he’s as good as he’ll ever be, right now, in which case it would be better to get another team to overpay for his potential, especially if by overpaying they strengthen our lineup at 2 or 3 or 4 positions.
I can already see some of you picking up your pitchforks again, and I can already hear the hue and cry that will certainly be the result of this piece. And if McCutchen had already said and done the things that would indicate he really, truly wants to be in Pittsburgh for the long haul, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. But he hasn’t. And if trading him would actually make this team stronger, overall, from top to bottom, it’s something the “best management team in sports” should strongly consider.
Before you have me keelhauled, consider these points: first and most importantly, it appears that he doesn’t want to be here long term. Not really. Why’s that, you ask? Well, according to at least one voice in the blogosphere, the much-maligned (often rightly, but not in this case) Pirates front office actually tried to emulate the Rays’ early career, pre-emptive, big-but-not-obscene-money signing of Evan Longoria when the team suits offered Andrew a long term deal of his own---and this not once, but twice.
Both times, Andrew said no. Before you respond by saying, “What’s so unusual about that? Players and their agents do that sort of thing all the time”, consider the examples of two other current major leaguers: the Angels’ Jared Weaver and our own Jose Tabata.
Weaver, one of the best starting pitchers in the American League, ignored the, ahem, “advice” of his agent, Scot Beelze-Boras, and signed a 6 year contract extension for about $85 million. His reasons? One, he was happy in Anaheim and wanted to put the distraction of contract negotiations behind him so he could get back to playing ball. Two, as he himself put it, “If I can’t live the rest of my life on $85 million, I’m pretty stupid”.
In other words, how much does any one man need….really? Once you factor in taxes and living expenses, both of which are going to be considerably higher in the large markets Andrew is presumably eying once his time in Pittsburgh is done, is a few million more or even $10 or $20 million more in another city really going to make that much difference to a player’s bottom line?
I don’t think so, yet Andrew has said no. Twice.
And now Tabata. While no one disputes the fact that Jose is not the elite or near-elite talent that Andrew is, nevertheless he’s pretty good. Tabata, like Weaver, told his agent(s) to jump in the lake and signed an early career contract extension that made him a multimillionaire while also giving him the opportunity to play right field in Pittsburgh ---like his longtime role model, Roberto Clemente
Certainly Tabata is no Clemente. But there is no doubt---zero---that he can really hit (just not with a lot of home runs) and really play defense and even steal some bases. With him, it’s all a question of whether he can stay healthy. If he’s on the field, he’s hitting and he’s catching everything in the vicinity, it’s that simple.
But the most important factor with him is this: he wants to be here. Obviously. So he got a deal done, and done quickly. Not so McCutchen. Why not?
Of course, it’s entirely possible that Andrew is waiting to see what will happen with the current rebuilding plan before he commits to staying in town past the maximum six years the Pirates can retain him before he hits the open market as a free agent. You only live once, Andrew is a big market talent, and maybe he wants the experience of being in the national spotlight to look back upon as he bounces his grandchildren on his knees. Okay. I get that.
But it only returns us to the first point: he doesn’t, or at least apparently doesn’t, want to be here, in Pittsburgh , long term. At minimum, he’s given no indication that that is what he wants to do.
Well, okay. Let’s assume for the sake of this discussion that Andrew wants to bolt for the brighter lights and bigger stage once his six year stay in Pittsburgh is over. Or even sooner than that, if the right scenario were to present itself. If…IF…that’s true, it makes sense to deal him now or in the next off season at the latest. That’s because he’ll be all the more valuable in a down economy as a trading chip who combines elite or near-elite talent with a salary that is not yet in the stratospheric locale that it will reach soon enough.
In other words, right now, and for the next year or two, he will be just about the most bang for the buck any team could possibly have in its starting outfield. There might be a handful of better ballplayers around the majors, but few if any play as well as Andrew does for the money he makes. Therefore, his potential value in trade is never going to be as high as it is now and for the next year or two. After that, his salary will zoom climb, even over his last couple of Pirates seasons if he spends the full six years in black and gold.
In other words, there’s more than one way to maximize the asset that is Andrew McCutchen. Hanging onto him for six years as the reluctant centerpiece of the current rebuilding project, all the while making long term, multimillion dollar offer after fruitless offer, is not the only road down which the team can travel.
Trading him alone or with other major and/or minor league Pirates in a blockbuster deal that would net 2 or 3 or 4 players in return, in some combination of productive, current major leaguers and top prospects, should definitely not be out of the question for the Pirates. Of course, trusting Neal Huntington to be the man who would pull the trigger on such a trade is….well, it would be interesting, let’s put it that way.
The GM who has proven more than capable of making very astute junkheap pickups like Garrett Jones is the same one who evidently either can’t be bothered with the most basic medical due diligence (Iwamura, Hart, Ascanio, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen, Matt Diaz) or else is knowingly gambling on players who are already hurt before they ever get here.
We’re talking about the guy who gave former National League batting champion Freddy Sanchez to the Giants in exchange for a fading A-ball pitcher with diminished velocity. We’re talking about the guy who is hoping against hope that Bryan Morris will prove to be some modicum of return for Jason Bay, because everyone else the Pirates got in exchange for Bay long ago washed out of Pittsburgh and down the Ohio River.
On the other hand, this is also the guy who made excellent trades with the Yankees and the Dodgers and turned the likes of Octavio Dotel, Xavier Nady, and Damaso Marte into Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, and others.
Andrew McCutchen, without question, is a very good major league baseball player. But he is not great. Definitely not. Want proof? In terms of his raw athletic tools, he is no worse than a righthanded batting version of Carl Crawford. Another player from the recent past who was quite similar to Andrew was Marquis Grissom.
But despite being in the same class as those two and other fleet-footed types in terms of pure foot speed, McCutchen is not a good base stealer. In fact, he’s barely average. And he is a significantly lesser player in terms of his base thievery than a guy with his speed ought to be. Even in an era of baseball dominated by sabermetric thinking - which postulates that it is better to steal smaller numbers of bases at an 80% or better success rate than to force the action in higher risk situations - even with all that, any player with McCutchen’s blazing speed should be logging 40 or more swipes every season.
Andrew’s career high of 33, set last season, is a respectable total but nowhere close to what he is capable of doing. And those 33 steals came with 10 caught stealing. This year his total regressed to 23, with another 10 caught stealing. His success rate over the past two seasons combined is a middling 74%, though it is higher for his career thanks to his 22 for 27 effort as a rookie. But the rather surprising downward trend in his steals leads us to our final point.
When I watch Andrew McCutchen, I see a player who, while definitely, indisputably, and consistently pretty good since the very start of his career, is also a guy who’s just not getting much better as he approaches what should be his peak seasons. This is very odd, especially for a guy with his talent, but it is not without precedent in major league history.
Fred Lynn, the old Boston Red Sox standby, rarely approached and never exceeded his incredible rookie season despite a long and productive career. Andrew’s rookie season, which did not begin until June of that year, did not approach the heights that Lynn reached, but he still posted a .286 average average with 12 home runs and 22 steals. This year his average sank to .259, though this was offset to some extent by his career-high 23 home runs.
As mentioned above, his steals also fell off this year from 33 to 23, and he had the worst success rate of his career, just under 70%. Now, maybe he’s still a young guy who’s “adjusting to the adjustments” and he’ll put it all together next year or the year after. But maybe not. Maybe he’s as good as he’ll ever be, right now, in which case it would be better to get another team to overpay for his potential, especially if by overpaying they strengthen our lineup at 2 or 3 or 4 positions.
I can already see some of you picking up your pitchforks again, and I can already hear the hue and cry that will certainly be the result of this piece. And if McCutchen had already said and done the things that would indicate he really, truly wants to be in Pittsburgh for the long haul, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. But he hasn’t. And if trading him would actually make this team stronger, overall, from top to bottom, it’s something the “best management team in sports” should strongly consider.
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Media Reacts To McCutch's Snub
Was McCutch snubbed? Hey, a good argument can be made for all the guys selected. So can one be made for Andrew McCutchen. His line is .294/12/45 with 51 runs scored and 15 stolen bases, a .393 OBP and .498 slugging percentage. McCutchen's WAR in 4.6; his UZR/150 is 6.9. That's a pretty complete player.
The national pundits (we suspect you already know what the local media think) have their own views, and they're unanimously pro-McCutch.
The national pundits (we suspect you already know what the local media think) have their own views, and they're unanimously pro-McCutch.
- David Schoenfield of ESPN's Sweet Spot blog writes "I figured he (McCutchen) was a lock for the team."
- Patrick McHugh of NESN posted "Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen boasts a .289 batting average, has 12 home runs and has driven in 43 runs on the season (before today's game). With such strong numbers it seemed a lock that the 24-year-old would be named to his first career All-Star Game."
- Keith Law of ESPN tweeted "What, McCutchen didn't make it? Did they pick the team with darts?"
- C. Trent Rosencrans of CBS's Eye on Baseball wrote in his piece "I still can't believe Andrew McCutchen's name wasn't on the All-Star list, he's the best all-around center fielder in the game."
- Anthony Witrado of The Sporting News noted "McCutchen has a higher average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and more steals than New York Mets right fielder Carlos Beltran, who was selected by manager Bruce Bochy. McCutchen is also having a better year than players’ selection Jay Bruce."
- Joe Lemire of Sports Illustrated's Five Cuts opined "Pirates centerfielder Andrew McCutchen is arguably the worst omission..."
- Mathhew Poulliot of NBC's Hardball Talk said "McCautchen (?), who is hitting .289/.390/.493 with 12 homers and 15 stolen bases and is the best player on one of the game’s biggest surprises, didn’t even make the Final Vote ballot for some bizarre reason."
It's gratifying at least to see that the national media has some idea of who McCutch is, even if the players and voters don't. We don't think the snub was meant to dis McCutchen; we think it's a by-product of the Pirates being a joke for so long that no one takes them, and by extension their roster, very seriously.
Hey, as we said before, there's a good argument to be made for every OF'er selected ahead of McCutch by performance or rep, or both. The players (except at contract time) and voting public aren't nearly as Sabermetrically inclined as the media and blogosphere are, so it's no surprise that they don't know the complete package that is Andrew McCutchen.
But McCutch belongs in the All-Star game. He made not have made it this year, but his time is coming, and quickly.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Game Notes, McCutch, Dewey
-- Paul Maholm and Rick Porcello take the hill today. The first pitch is at 1:35 PM, and the game will be shown on Root Sports.
-- Today's lineup: Andrew McCutchen CF, Jose Tabata LF, Garrett Jones RF, Neil Walker 2B, Lyle Overbay 1B, Steve Pearce 3B, Chris Snyder C, Ronny Cedeno SS, Paul Maholm P.
Pearce gets the start at third today; the Pirates have been working him there and at second. If he can hold his own at the hot corner, Brandon Wood could become redundant and the Pirates might actually look for a true middle infielder to solidify the bench.
-- Jose Veras had his first MLB at-bat last night; he told the beat gang that he was under orders to keep the lumber on his shoulders. Good thing too, as he walked on four pitches and eventually came around to score. He had to borrow a bat and helmet; we wonder if he kept Brandon Wood's mooched stick as a keepsake?
-- McCutch's fielding has been sometimes spectacular this year, as his UZR/150 verifies - it's now 9.4, compared to last year's -12.9. His arm has improved too, from -0.9 to +0.9, thanks to the elimination of his rainbows aimed at the cut-off man. He has five assists so far this year; he only had eight all of last season.
And we think that undervalues his play; just last night he ran down four bombs to the wall, and seems to make a nightly sliding grab. Our guess is that his UZR will always be a false indicator of his range because of the Pirate OF configuration; JT gets a lot of balls in left center that the UZR tracker probably consider to be in McCutch's outer patrol zone.
-- Dewey is thriving both at the plate and behind it as a platoon guy. His hitting metrics are are among his overall bests, and his fielding value has increased from 2010's -15.5 to this year's -1. There's something to be said for keeping a guy's body in one piece, and Ryan Doumit so far this year has avoided all the nagging injuries that he's played with throughout his career.
If he continues near his current pace, it'll be interesting to see what the Pirates do when the season ends. There's no chance they'll pick up his options ($7.25M in 2012, $8.25M in 2013), but the FO could be tempted to work out a new deal to keep him in his current status if he keeps on keepin' on, especially with an off-season to get him some outfield work to increase his value and find him some extra at-bats.
His current deal pays him $5.1M, and Fangraphs has his current value at $3.8M. There may be some wiggle room between those numbers to reach an agreement, if both sides are willing.
-- Today's lineup: Andrew McCutchen CF, Jose Tabata LF, Garrett Jones RF, Neil Walker 2B, Lyle Overbay 1B, Steve Pearce 3B, Chris Snyder C, Ronny Cedeno SS, Paul Maholm P.
Pearce gets the start at third today; the Pirates have been working him there and at second. If he can hold his own at the hot corner, Brandon Wood could become redundant and the Pirates might actually look for a true middle infielder to solidify the bench.
-- Jose Veras had his first MLB at-bat last night; he told the beat gang that he was under orders to keep the lumber on his shoulders. Good thing too, as he walked on four pitches and eventually came around to score. He had to borrow a bat and helmet; we wonder if he kept Brandon Wood's mooched stick as a keepsake?
-- McCutch's fielding has been sometimes spectacular this year, as his UZR/150 verifies - it's now 9.4, compared to last year's -12.9. His arm has improved too, from -0.9 to +0.9, thanks to the elimination of his rainbows aimed at the cut-off man. He has five assists so far this year; he only had eight all of last season.
And we think that undervalues his play; just last night he ran down four bombs to the wall, and seems to make a nightly sliding grab. Our guess is that his UZR will always be a false indicator of his range because of the Pirate OF configuration; JT gets a lot of balls in left center that the UZR tracker probably consider to be in McCutch's outer patrol zone.
-- Dewey is thriving both at the plate and behind it as a platoon guy. His hitting metrics are are among his overall bests, and his fielding value has increased from 2010's -15.5 to this year's -1. There's something to be said for keeping a guy's body in one piece, and Ryan Doumit so far this year has avoided all the nagging injuries that he's played with throughout his career.
If he continues near his current pace, it'll be interesting to see what the Pirates do when the season ends. There's no chance they'll pick up his options ($7.25M in 2012, $8.25M in 2013), but the FO could be tempted to work out a new deal to keep him in his current status if he keeps on keepin' on, especially with an off-season to get him some outfield work to increase his value and find him some extra at-bats.
His current deal pays him $5.1M, and Fangraphs has his current value at $3.8M. There may be some wiggle room between those numbers to reach an agreement, if both sides are willing.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Bucs, McCutch Talking Turkey
Well, it's certainly not as momentous as the front page news today, but Dejan Kovacevic of the Post-Gazette reports that Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates are talking about a long-term extension.
It makes sense for a variety of reasons. First, McCutch is the face of the franchise, the first primo ballplayer to pull on a Pirate uni in the Coonelly-Huntington era. Many consider him to be the template for the contract approach toward the other "core four" players, and an indicator of whether they sign 'em or trade 'em.
Second, as Aaron Gleeman says in Hard Ball Talk, "McCutchen is among the best long-term building blocks in the league."
The 24 year-old is a .281 lifetime hitter, and while off to a slow start this season, is a 20-homer, 40-steals, 100 runs scored, 75 RBI, plus defender type player, and that's quite a toolbox.
Finally, there are lots of precedences - the recent Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, and Justin Upton deals give McCutch and the brass a set of figures to work with.
DK suggests that they're looking at buying out his arb years; we think that would be short-sighted. McCutch will be under team control until after the 2015 season. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors speculates that a deal should cover six years and be in the $52M range using the other contracts as a guidepost.
That would buy out two of McCutch's free-agency years, and keep him in Pittsburgh through 2017. It could work for McCutch, too - he'd hit the FA market at age 30 season, and presumably have another big contract waiting for him.
It should also work for the Pirates, who like to add that FA time to their extensions, although as options years rather than guarantees.
It's great news that McCutch and the team are talking turkey. Let's hope that it includes a free agency season or two, which would both keep him together with the other young guns and help to ease the "trade 'em instead of paying 'em" angst of the long-suffering fans.
It makes sense for a variety of reasons. First, McCutch is the face of the franchise, the first primo ballplayer to pull on a Pirate uni in the Coonelly-Huntington era. Many consider him to be the template for the contract approach toward the other "core four" players, and an indicator of whether they sign 'em or trade 'em.
Second, as Aaron Gleeman says in Hard Ball Talk, "McCutchen is among the best long-term building blocks in the league."
The 24 year-old is a .281 lifetime hitter, and while off to a slow start this season, is a 20-homer, 40-steals, 100 runs scored, 75 RBI, plus defender type player, and that's quite a toolbox.
Finally, there are lots of precedences - the recent Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, and Justin Upton deals give McCutch and the brass a set of figures to work with.
DK suggests that they're looking at buying out his arb years; we think that would be short-sighted. McCutch will be under team control until after the 2015 season. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors speculates that a deal should cover six years and be in the $52M range using the other contracts as a guidepost.
That would buy out two of McCutch's free-agency years, and keep him in Pittsburgh through 2017. It could work for McCutch, too - he'd hit the FA market at age 30 season, and presumably have another big contract waiting for him.
It should also work for the Pirates, who like to add that FA time to their extensions, although as options years rather than guarantees.
It's great news that McCutch and the team are talking turkey. Let's hope that it includes a free agency season or two, which would both keep him together with the other young guns and help to ease the "trade 'em instead of paying 'em" angst of the long-suffering fans.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Why McCutch Is Back At Leadoff
What made Clint Hurdle move McCutch back to leadoff after just 11 games in the three hole? Well, the explanation can be made in two words: fly balls.
McCutch's plate discipline hasn't been hampered; his strikeout and walk rates early on mirror his career averages. But in the first two weeks+ of the season, his ground ball rate went from 42% lifetime to 26% this year, and his liner rate has dropped, too, from 19% to 13%.
And hey, that only leaves one place for the ball to go: in the air. He hits flies at a 40% rate historically, but he's at 61% this year. And the bad news is that 1/3 of those are infield pops; he's hit twice as many (21%-10% of his fly balls) this year as in the past.
It's a classic case of overswinging as he tries to adapt to a RBI spot in the lineup. It really shows in his BABIP (balls-in-play BA), which dropped from .313 lifetime to .194 in 2011.
His speed game suffered, too. He only swiped his first base yesterday, and has no bunt base hits (his infield hit rate is the same, but with fewer ground balls, you get fewer leg hits). And make no mistake, his wheels are disruptive once he gets them churning.
In fairness to Hurdle, McCutch's lifetime line batting first or third are almost identical; it was worth a look at stacking the top of the lineup. McCutch's OPS+ was 102 at the top of the order and 100 in the three hole. With the small number of at-bats, it may have evened out over the long haul.
But the skipper made the right call, and wasted little time doing it, by moving McCutch back to a run scoring spot where he can use his speed, shorten his swing and let the big boppers bring him home.
With the slower Neil Walker showing some pop and thriving in the middle of the order, it was a natural shuffle, and should help the attack produce some added runs now that both guys are in their more natural spots in the lineup.
(DJ Short of Hard Ball Talk did the original analysis; GW just fluffed it up some statistically and added a little local knowledge to the commentary. The lion's share of the stats came from Fangraphs. Thanks, guys.)
McCutch's plate discipline hasn't been hampered; his strikeout and walk rates early on mirror his career averages. But in the first two weeks+ of the season, his ground ball rate went from 42% lifetime to 26% this year, and his liner rate has dropped, too, from 19% to 13%.
And hey, that only leaves one place for the ball to go: in the air. He hits flies at a 40% rate historically, but he's at 61% this year. And the bad news is that 1/3 of those are infield pops; he's hit twice as many (21%-10% of his fly balls) this year as in the past.
It's a classic case of overswinging as he tries to adapt to a RBI spot in the lineup. It really shows in his BABIP (balls-in-play BA), which dropped from .313 lifetime to .194 in 2011.
His speed game suffered, too. He only swiped his first base yesterday, and has no bunt base hits (his infield hit rate is the same, but with fewer ground balls, you get fewer leg hits). And make no mistake, his wheels are disruptive once he gets them churning.
In fairness to Hurdle, McCutch's lifetime line batting first or third are almost identical; it was worth a look at stacking the top of the lineup. McCutch's OPS+ was 102 at the top of the order and 100 in the three hole. With the small number of at-bats, it may have evened out over the long haul.
But the skipper made the right call, and wasted little time doing it, by moving McCutch back to a run scoring spot where he can use his speed, shorten his swing and let the big boppers bring him home.
With the slower Neil Walker showing some pop and thriving in the middle of the order, it was a natural shuffle, and should help the attack produce some added runs now that both guys are in their more natural spots in the lineup.
(DJ Short of Hard Ball Talk did the original analysis; GW just fluffed it up some statistically and added a little local knowledge to the commentary. The lion's share of the stats came from Fangraphs. Thanks, guys.)
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
SI Fantasizes About Pedro & McCutch
-- Sports Illustrated ran a piece about 2011's Fantasy Baseball selections; they were high on Pedro Alvarez, saying "He was labeled the top hitter of his draft class and he showed plenty of power in his first two-thirds of a season. His first full season could produce 25-plus homers and 100 RBI."
-- In another fantasy-related piece by SI, Eric Mack picked Andrew McCutchen as one of the NL Central's breakout players. He wrote "This is a real talented 24-year old just scratching the surface."
-- In another fantasy-related piece by SI, Eric Mack picked Andrew McCutchen as one of the NL Central's breakout players. He wrote "This is a real talented 24-year old just scratching the surface."
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
More McCutch Love
Man, the accolades have been pouring in for CF Andrew McCutchen lately. It's nice to know that a Pirate can get noticed in this era. But here's something that proves his value, even to Sabermetric worshipers:
Andrew McCutchen produced more WAR than the entire Pittsburgh offense and defense, himself included. McCutch in 2010 had a 3.3 WAR; the Pirates had a 2.8 WAR. That's happened just once since 2004, when Jim Thome outdid the White Sox.
Joe Pawlikowski has the story at Fangraphs.
Andrew McCutchen produced more WAR than the entire Pittsburgh offense and defense, himself included. McCutch in 2010 had a 3.3 WAR; the Pirates had a 2.8 WAR. That's happened just once since 2004, when Jim Thome outdid the White Sox.
Joe Pawlikowski has the story at Fangraphs.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
McCutch Gets A Lot Of Love
OK, GW was asleep for this one: Kristy Robinson at "Hands Off My Pirates Booty" blog (stories linked below) reports that MLB Network, in a couple of different episodes, picked Andrew McCutchen as baseball's best center fielder. Not most underrated, not best of the pups, just...the best.
Greg Amsinger of MLB's "Thursday Countdown" said: "It's time to find out (who) the number one center fielder in major league baseball is right now and he resides in Pittsburgh. The Pirates Andrew McCutchen is #1."
A couple days prior, when Ken Rosenthal of Fox was pressed to select the MLB's best CF, he said on MLB's "Front Burner" that "I'll go with the guy that no one talks about because he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates. That would be Andrew McCutchen. People don't realize how good a player this kid is becoming and is already."
Hmmm...maybe the Bucs better tie him up long-term before the Yankees and Red Sox decide to start bidding on him.
Greg Amsinger of MLB's "Thursday Countdown" said: "It's time to find out (who) the number one center fielder in major league baseball is right now and he resides in Pittsburgh. The Pirates Andrew McCutchen is #1."
A couple days prior, when Ken Rosenthal of Fox was pressed to select the MLB's best CF, he said on MLB's "Front Burner" that "I'll go with the guy that no one talks about because he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates. That would be Andrew McCutchen. People don't realize how good a player this kid is becoming and is already."
Hmmm...maybe the Bucs better tie him up long-term before the Yankees and Red Sox decide to start bidding on him.
Friday, December 10, 2010
If You're Saving Your Money For Something...
Well, the Bucs certainly aren't making any free agents wealthy. Maybe it's time that they made a couple of their home-grown players sweat the Bush tax cuts. For example, have you ever wondered what it will take to get Andrew McCutchen signed long term? Here's a couple of recent examples of contracts for players of similar age and talent:
-- The Reds just inked Jay Bruce to a six-year, $51M deal that will keep him in Cincy through 2016. He gets a $13M option in 2017 with a $1M buyout, a partial no-trade clause and the chance to earn more money with award bonuses.
The 23 year old batted .281/.353/.493 with 25 homers as Cincinnati's everyday right fielder in 2010.
-- D-Back Justin Upton's six-year, $51.25M deal will keep him in Arizona for all of his arbitration seasons and his first two years of free agency. The 23 year old signed the deal in March after a 2009 line of .300/26/86. He remains under team control through 2015, with very limited (4 teams) no-trade protection and no option year.
-- The 162-game averages for the three players, from Baseball Reference:
Bruce (3 years) .257/.327/.474 25-2B, 31-HR, 82-RBI, 80-RS, 5-SB
Upton (4 years) .272/.352/.471 32-2B, 23-HR, 80-RBI, 87-RS, 16-SB
McCutch (2 years) .286/.365/.459 38-2B, 17-HR, 68-RBI, 104-RS, 34-SB
McCutchen is 24 (he has an October birthday), and has a good chance of hitting his Super 2 arbitration status after 2011. A six-year deal after next season will keep him under Pirate control until 2017, and the FO have the Bruce and Upton contracts to serve as guides.
Will the Pirates step up to the plate for McCutch?
-- The Reds just inked Jay Bruce to a six-year, $51M deal that will keep him in Cincy through 2016. He gets a $13M option in 2017 with a $1M buyout, a partial no-trade clause and the chance to earn more money with award bonuses.
The 23 year old batted .281/.353/.493 with 25 homers as Cincinnati's everyday right fielder in 2010.
-- D-Back Justin Upton's six-year, $51.25M deal will keep him in Arizona for all of his arbitration seasons and his first two years of free agency. The 23 year old signed the deal in March after a 2009 line of .300/26/86. He remains under team control through 2015, with very limited (4 teams) no-trade protection and no option year.
-- The 162-game averages for the three players, from Baseball Reference:
Bruce (3 years) .257/.327/.474 25-2B, 31-HR, 82-RBI, 80-RS, 5-SB
Upton (4 years) .272/.352/.471 32-2B, 23-HR, 80-RBI, 87-RS, 16-SB
McCutch (2 years) .286/.365/.459 38-2B, 17-HR, 68-RBI, 104-RS, 34-SB
McCutchen is 24 (he has an October birthday), and has a good chance of hitting his Super 2 arbitration status after 2011. A six-year deal after next season will keep him under Pirate control until 2017, and the FO have the Bruce and Upton contracts to serve as guides.
Will the Pirates step up to the plate for McCutch?
Monday, September 13, 2010
McCutch's Mitt and the Monday Wash
-- There's been a lot of debate about Andrew McCutchen's fielding this year; the Sabremetric folk rank him as the second coming of Richie Zisk. The difference is that Pirate strategists have him playing a little deeper and shaded more toward the right center gap than they did in 2009 with Jose Tabata now the regular left fielder.
It makes sense by giving them better overall coverage by protecting the right fielder. The only hole is the left field line, and the braintrust is counting on JT's wheels to cover that gap.
The alignment protects against extra base knocks better, but limits McCutch's ability to snag the little flares and also gives the LF'er more chances on balls that were his last season. Both of those work against McCutchen in UZR stats as they affect both his perceived range and putout totals.
Is he a gold glover? Not now; he often has a little hesitation in his initial read. But his routes are usually direct, his throwing has improved over last year, and he still outruns balls. McCutch may be giving up some personal stats in the Pirate defensive scheme, but his leather is the least of Pittsburgh's problems.
-- The Pirates claimed RHP Chris Leroux off waivers from the Marlins and DFA'ed RHP Brian Bass. Leroux, 26, appeared in 17 games for Florida this year. In 18 innings of work for the Marlins, he had a 7.00 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, struck out 18 and walked 11. He posted a 6.28 ERA in three minor league stops this year, but his strikeout (7.2 K/9) and walk (2.5 BB/9) numbers were good.
A seventh-round selection by Florida in the 2005 draft, he throws a mid-nineties fastball, hard slider and change, and is a ground-ball pitcher; his control is his biggest issue. A Montreal native, Leroux appeared in two games for Team Canada during the 2009 World Baseball Classic. He's 6'6" and has a power arm, and the Pirates are always on the lookout for those physical attributes.
He's been included in Baseball America's top 20 Marlin prospects for the past three years, and projects as a set-up man, ala Chris Resop, in the pen. Leroux has one option remaining after the season, so can be sent to Indy next year if he sticks on the 40-man roster.
-- Recent top gun signees Luis Heredia, Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie will hit Pirate City this week to participate in the Instructional League.
-- If you're wondering who in the heck Met starter Dillon Gee is, he's the guy who replaced Johan Santana in the NY rotation. In his major league debut Tuesday against the Nats, Gee took a no-hitter into the sixth, ending up with a seven inning, one-run, two hit outing and a victory.
Before his call-up, Gee had a 13-8 record and 4.96 ERA in AAA, with 165 K in 161 IP - and 23 HR's surrendered.
-- The Oakland Athletics inked free-agent Akinori Iwamura, recently released by the Bucs. The 31-year-old hit .182 in 193 plate appearances for the Pirates this season and had a .264/3/16 line at Indy. Oakland said they made the move because the club is unsure of when Kevin Kouzmanoff will be able to return to action at third this year.
It makes sense by giving them better overall coverage by protecting the right fielder. The only hole is the left field line, and the braintrust is counting on JT's wheels to cover that gap.
The alignment protects against extra base knocks better, but limits McCutch's ability to snag the little flares and also gives the LF'er more chances on balls that were his last season. Both of those work against McCutchen in UZR stats as they affect both his perceived range and putout totals.
Is he a gold glover? Not now; he often has a little hesitation in his initial read. But his routes are usually direct, his throwing has improved over last year, and he still outruns balls. McCutch may be giving up some personal stats in the Pirate defensive scheme, but his leather is the least of Pittsburgh's problems.
-- The Pirates claimed RHP Chris Leroux off waivers from the Marlins and DFA'ed RHP Brian Bass. Leroux, 26, appeared in 17 games for Florida this year. In 18 innings of work for the Marlins, he had a 7.00 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, struck out 18 and walked 11. He posted a 6.28 ERA in three minor league stops this year, but his strikeout (7.2 K/9) and walk (2.5 BB/9) numbers were good.
A seventh-round selection by Florida in the 2005 draft, he throws a mid-nineties fastball, hard slider and change, and is a ground-ball pitcher; his control is his biggest issue. A Montreal native, Leroux appeared in two games for Team Canada during the 2009 World Baseball Classic. He's 6'6" and has a power arm, and the Pirates are always on the lookout for those physical attributes.
He's been included in Baseball America's top 20 Marlin prospects for the past three years, and projects as a set-up man, ala Chris Resop, in the pen. Leroux has one option remaining after the season, so can be sent to Indy next year if he sticks on the 40-man roster.
-- Recent top gun signees Luis Heredia, Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie will hit Pirate City this week to participate in the Instructional League.
-- If you're wondering who in the heck Met starter Dillon Gee is, he's the guy who replaced Johan Santana in the NY rotation. In his major league debut Tuesday against the Nats, Gee took a no-hitter into the sixth, ending up with a seven inning, one-run, two hit outing and a victory.
Before his call-up, Gee had a 13-8 record and 4.96 ERA in AAA, with 165 K in 161 IP - and 23 HR's surrendered.
-- The Oakland Athletics inked free-agent Akinori Iwamura, recently released by the Bucs. The 31-year-old hit .182 in 193 plate appearances for the Pirates this season and had a .264/3/16 line at Indy. Oakland said they made the move because the club is unsure of when Kevin Kouzmanoff will be able to return to action at third this year.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
McClutch
Hey, if you bring up Dave Littlefield's draft record, most Pirate fans begin popping arteries and their teeth begin to gnash. But give the devil his due; in 2005 he got it right.
That's the year he went to the podium and announced that Pittsburgh was selecting Andrew Stefan McCutchen, an 18 year-old from Fort Meade High in Florida.
In his senior year, the multi-talented McCutchen hit .474 with 8 home runs, 40 RBI, 45 stolen bases, and only 5 strikeouts. He also played football and ran track. McCutch was signed up to play for Florida, but $1.95M convinced the 11th overall pick that the time was right to turn pro.
Contrary to popular belief, the Pirates promoted him pretty aggressively. He never got to sit at one level until 2008, always being moved up the ladder.
In 2005, McCutchen went from the GCL rookie league to short-season Williamsport, hitting a combined .310. In 2006, he started at Class A Hickory and moved on to Altoona, skipping High A, and between the two clubs, he hit .294.
He started for the South Atlantic League's All-Star team that season, his first full year as a professional. At the end of 2006, the Pirates named him the organization's Minor League Player of the Year.
In 2007, he started with the Curve and was then kicked upstairs to Indy. That's the year he met his first taste of struggle, hitting just .265 overall.
In 2008, he was a very solid player, hitting .283. Talk was that the highly touted savior - though he shares the title with Pedro Alvarez now - may end up being just a good MLB player rather than the Joltin' Joe everyone had hoped he'd become.
Still, everyone wanted to see him do his thing at PNC Park. The Pirates held off. With a another losing season in the bag and Nate McClouth playing center, there wasn't any reason to bring McCutchen to the show and start his arbitration clock ticking.
Heck, he didn't even get a September call-up, although they brought him to the banks of the Allegheny just to acclimate him to the clubhouse routine. Guess they knew his time was about to come.
So it was back to Indy to start 2009, where he was hitting .303 in 49 games when the news came: Nate McLouth was traded to the Braves, and Andrew McCutchen was finally headed to the big leagues.
McCutch was ready. In five minor league seasons, he went from Rookie league to AAA, and had a line of .286/.362/.423 with 43 homers, 232 RBI, 330 runs, and 105 stolen bases. It was his time.
He got his call on June 3rd, and made his debut the next day, singling in his first at-bat off the Mets' Mike Pelfrey.
On June 17th, McCutchen hit his first career home run off of Francisco Liriano of the Twins. On June 25th, he had his first career walk-off hit off of Indians' reliever Matt Herges.
On August 1st, McCutch had his most memorable evening. Against the Nats, he went 4-for-5 with three home runs and six RBI. He became the tenth Pirate to hit three home runs in a single game, and the first Pirate rookie to ever do it.
He collected his first walk-off home run off of Brad Lidge of the Phillies on August 25th.
In 108 games, McCutchen had a line of .286/.365/.471 with an .836 OPS. He hit a dozen homers, 26 doubles, and nine triples while stealing 22 bases. McClutch drove in 54 runs, scored 74, and hit .324 with runners in scoring position.
His glovework was also as advertised, although his UZR was -1.0. Like most speedy center fielders, he plays fairly shallow. McCutchen has shown the ability to track down balls over his head, although he could do a better job with his reads at balls hit right at him.
His arm is above average, but he needs to improve its accuracy. Overall, he's a very good outfielder, better than McLouth, but has a ways to go. The raw ability is there, but positioning and route-running take time to become second nature.
The baseball world sure took notice of his debut. McCutchen was named the Baseball America Rookie of the Year for 2009, and was fourth in the Baseball Writer's race, garnering a pair if first place votes.
The only question is how much upside does he left to reach, or simply stated, how good can he be?
McCutchen is a little guy at 5-11, 175 pounds, and that may limit his home run production, though his legs guarantee a bushel of doubles and triples. He's got unrealized potential in the field, and at 23 (his birthday is in October) has time to learn the nuances.
His comparable at age 22 is Grady Sizemore, and that's not bad company to be in. Sizemore has more size and power; McCutchen is faster. Otherwise, pretty even match.
Which leads to the big question about McCutchen: what's his future in Pittsburgh? He's young, is a well-spoken team face, and is quietly a leader - or didn't you notice how Lastings Milledge, the devil incarnate in New York and Washington, has become Mr. Peepers under McCutch's wing?
Pirate fans fear that he's gone after, or maybe during, his arb years. Neal Huntington has stated that McCutchen is a guy to build around, but we've heard that song before. Blogger Josh Taylor hopes for a different scenario.
Huntington was in Cleveland when the Indians signed Sizemore to a six-year deal. He suggests that the Pirates work on tying him up through arbitration and early free agency just like the Tribe did with Grady; it ended up a win-win for both.
Now that flies against all that the suits hold holy, and does carry some risk, but it sure would send a welcome message to the Pirate Nation, and the team. But we'll see how Pittsburgh handles its brave new world.
That's the year he went to the podium and announced that Pittsburgh was selecting Andrew Stefan McCutchen, an 18 year-old from Fort Meade High in Florida.
In his senior year, the multi-talented McCutchen hit .474 with 8 home runs, 40 RBI, 45 stolen bases, and only 5 strikeouts. He also played football and ran track. McCutch was signed up to play for Florida, but $1.95M convinced the 11th overall pick that the time was right to turn pro.
Contrary to popular belief, the Pirates promoted him pretty aggressively. He never got to sit at one level until 2008, always being moved up the ladder.
In 2005, McCutchen went from the GCL rookie league to short-season Williamsport, hitting a combined .310. In 2006, he started at Class A Hickory and moved on to Altoona, skipping High A, and between the two clubs, he hit .294.
He started for the South Atlantic League's All-Star team that season, his first full year as a professional. At the end of 2006, the Pirates named him the organization's Minor League Player of the Year.
In 2007, he started with the Curve and was then kicked upstairs to Indy. That's the year he met his first taste of struggle, hitting just .265 overall.
In 2008, he was a very solid player, hitting .283. Talk was that the highly touted savior - though he shares the title with Pedro Alvarez now - may end up being just a good MLB player rather than the Joltin' Joe everyone had hoped he'd become.
Still, everyone wanted to see him do his thing at PNC Park. The Pirates held off. With a another losing season in the bag and Nate McClouth playing center, there wasn't any reason to bring McCutchen to the show and start his arbitration clock ticking.
Heck, he didn't even get a September call-up, although they brought him to the banks of the Allegheny just to acclimate him to the clubhouse routine. Guess they knew his time was about to come.
So it was back to Indy to start 2009, where he was hitting .303 in 49 games when the news came: Nate McLouth was traded to the Braves, and Andrew McCutchen was finally headed to the big leagues.
McCutch was ready. In five minor league seasons, he went from Rookie league to AAA, and had a line of .286/.362/.423 with 43 homers, 232 RBI, 330 runs, and 105 stolen bases. It was his time.
He got his call on June 3rd, and made his debut the next day, singling in his first at-bat off the Mets' Mike Pelfrey.
On June 17th, McCutchen hit his first career home run off of Francisco Liriano of the Twins. On June 25th, he had his first career walk-off hit off of Indians' reliever Matt Herges.
On August 1st, McCutch had his most memorable evening. Against the Nats, he went 4-for-5 with three home runs and six RBI. He became the tenth Pirate to hit three home runs in a single game, and the first Pirate rookie to ever do it.
He collected his first walk-off home run off of Brad Lidge of the Phillies on August 25th.
In 108 games, McCutchen had a line of .286/.365/.471 with an .836 OPS. He hit a dozen homers, 26 doubles, and nine triples while stealing 22 bases. McClutch drove in 54 runs, scored 74, and hit .324 with runners in scoring position.
His glovework was also as advertised, although his UZR was -1.0. Like most speedy center fielders, he plays fairly shallow. McCutchen has shown the ability to track down balls over his head, although he could do a better job with his reads at balls hit right at him.
His arm is above average, but he needs to improve its accuracy. Overall, he's a very good outfielder, better than McLouth, but has a ways to go. The raw ability is there, but positioning and route-running take time to become second nature.
The baseball world sure took notice of his debut. McCutchen was named the Baseball America Rookie of the Year for 2009, and was fourth in the Baseball Writer's race, garnering a pair if first place votes.
The only question is how much upside does he left to reach, or simply stated, how good can he be?
McCutchen is a little guy at 5-11, 175 pounds, and that may limit his home run production, though his legs guarantee a bushel of doubles and triples. He's got unrealized potential in the field, and at 23 (his birthday is in October) has time to learn the nuances.
His comparable at age 22 is Grady Sizemore, and that's not bad company to be in. Sizemore has more size and power; McCutchen is faster. Otherwise, pretty even match.
Which leads to the big question about McCutchen: what's his future in Pittsburgh? He's young, is a well-spoken team face, and is quietly a leader - or didn't you notice how Lastings Milledge, the devil incarnate in New York and Washington, has become Mr. Peepers under McCutch's wing?
Pirate fans fear that he's gone after, or maybe during, his arb years. Neal Huntington has stated that McCutchen is a guy to build around, but we've heard that song before. Blogger Josh Taylor hopes for a different scenario.
Huntington was in Cleveland when the Indians signed Sizemore to a six-year deal. He suggests that the Pirates work on tying him up through arbitration and early free agency just like the Tribe did with Grady; it ended up a win-win for both.
Now that flies against all that the suits hold holy, and does carry some risk, but it sure would send a welcome message to the Pirate Nation, and the team. But we'll see how Pittsburgh handles its brave new world.
Monday, October 26, 2009
The News...
-- Andrew McCutchen was named Baseball America's MLB Rookie of the Year today.
McCutchen batted .286 with 26 doubles, nine triples, 12 home runs, 54 RBIs, 22 stolen bases and a .364 on-base percentage in 108 games.
The 23-year-old McCutchen's 47 extra-base hits led NL rookies, and he ranked second among them in multihit games (36), runs, walks and total bases (204). He was third in RBI, third in stolen bases, third in slugging percentage (.471), third in doubles, fifth in batting and fourth in on-base percentage.
Garrett Jones was named to the 2009 All-Rookie team as a first baseman. He batted .293 and led all Major League rookies with 21 home runs.
The Baseball Bloggers Alliance, which is represented by bloggers from every MLB team, also announced Andrew McCutchen as their NL ROY last week.
McCutchen finished first over Tommy Hanson and J.A. Happ as he received 12 of the possible 20 1st place votes. Garrett Jones was sixth (noted by Jim Rosati at the North Side Notch.)
The big enchilada, the American League and National League Rookie of the Year Awards as selected by the Baseball Writers' Association of America, will be announced on November 16th.
-- RHP Tyler Yates elected free agency after being outrighted by the Pirates, as reported by MLB Trade Rumors. Yates had Tommy John surgery in July, and DFA'ing him takes him off the 40-man roster earlier than non-tendering him in December, their original plan.
The roster is now at 37 players. They'll need to make some more room by November to protect the up-and-comers from the Rule 5 draft; they have to add Evan Meek and Jose Ascanio from the DL, too.
-- Before everyone writes off Matt Capps, let Brad Lidge serve as a cautionary tale. As Rob Maaddi of the Canadian Press reminds us of Lidge:
McCutchen batted .286 with 26 doubles, nine triples, 12 home runs, 54 RBIs, 22 stolen bases and a .364 on-base percentage in 108 games.
The 23-year-old McCutchen's 47 extra-base hits led NL rookies, and he ranked second among them in multihit games (36), runs, walks and total bases (204). He was third in RBI, third in stolen bases, third in slugging percentage (.471), third in doubles, fifth in batting and fourth in on-base percentage.
Garrett Jones was named to the 2009 All-Rookie team as a first baseman. He batted .293 and led all Major League rookies with 21 home runs.
The Baseball Bloggers Alliance, which is represented by bloggers from every MLB team, also announced Andrew McCutchen as their NL ROY last week.
McCutchen finished first over Tommy Hanson and J.A. Happ as he received 12 of the possible 20 1st place votes. Garrett Jones was sixth (noted by Jim Rosati at the North Side Notch.)
The big enchilada, the American League and National League Rookie of the Year Awards as selected by the Baseball Writers' Association of America, will be announced on November 16th.
-- RHP Tyler Yates elected free agency after being outrighted by the Pirates, as reported by MLB Trade Rumors. Yates had Tommy John surgery in July, and DFA'ing him takes him off the 40-man roster earlier than non-tendering him in December, their original plan.
The roster is now at 37 players. They'll need to make some more room by November to protect the up-and-comers from the Rule 5 draft; they have to add Evan Meek and Jose Ascanio from the DL, too.
-- Before everyone writes off Matt Capps, let Brad Lidge serve as a cautionary tale. As Rob Maaddi of the Canadian Press reminds us of Lidge:
"He led the majors with 11 blown saves and went 0-8 with a 7.21 earned-run average. None of that matters now. Lidge is lights-out again. He's 1-0 with three saves in as many tries and hasn't allowed a run in five appearances. The hard-throwing right-hander has given up just one hit in four innings."We'll find out soon if his season was an aberration, or if the playoffs are so far.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
The Andrew McCutchen File
Name: Andrew Stefan McCutchen
Height: 5-11; Weight: 175; Bats: R; Throws: R
Born: October 10, 1986 (Fort Meade, Florida)
High School: Fort Meade HS; no college
Drafted: Pirates' 1st round pick (11th overall) of 2005 draft.
Scouting report (MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects 2009): He's a five-tool player with terrific athletic ability to go along with plus bat speed and good pitch recognition. The development of his power will determine whether he's a leadoff hitter or an eventual run producer. He has outstanding speed and is an excellent defensive center fielder, but is still learning the nuances of base-stealing.
Concerns: Better base-stealing techniques (48 SB, 24 CS in AAA, 67%), improvement against RHP, improve on 10% walk rate, develop more power. Overall, the worry is that he's still raw since the Pirates rushed him through their system.
Potential: Most of the major projection services have him hitting in the .260's this year with single-digit HRs and 20 SB; most fantasy pages peg him as a .280 batter. The longer-term question is whether he grows into a three hitter as he matures or stays at the top of the order.
Minor League Stats: 4 seasons +, 2,223 at-bats; .286 average; .362 OBP, 43 HR, 232 RBI, 330 R, 105 SB (75%), 10% walk rate, 15% K rate.
Minor League Awards: International League Player of the Month (May 2009); Picked for Futures Team, IL All-Star, named All-Star Game "Top Star," Baseball America's choice for #2 prospect in the IL(2008); Arizona Fall League Rising Star, All-AFL Prospect Team (2007); South Atlantic League All-Star & Most Outstanding Sally league major League prospect (2006).
Prospect Rankings: (Baseball America)
2006 - #50 MLB
2006 - #02 PGH
2007 - #13 MLB
2007 - #01 PGH
2008 - #14 MLB
2008 - #01 PGH
2009 - #33 MLB
2009 - #02 PGH
Bio: During McCutchen's junior year at Fort Meade High School in 2004 he batted .474 with 8 HR, 40 RBI, 45 stolen bases with only 5 strikeouts; his senior year was better when he hit .709 with 8-2B, 3-3B, 16 HR, and 42 RBI while named an All-State selection. He also played football and ran track.
McCutchen, who had a commitment to the University of Florida, signed with the Bucs after graduation as their #1 pick. By the end of 2006, the Pirates named him the organization's Minor League Player of the Year.
He's played at Bradenton, Williamsport, Hickory, Altoona, and Indianapolis. In Altoona, he was the youngest player in franchise history and the youngest playing in the Eastern League that season. His rise has been so rapid that last year at Indy was the first time the 22 year-old has played at one level for an entire season.
McCutch has been a Top 50 Prospect since 2006, and tore it up this spring. Most believe the only reason he didn't break camp with the team was to delay starting his arbitration clock, and that's not a bad idea. Now he's here; let the good times roll.
Height: 5-11; Weight: 175; Bats: R; Throws: R
Born: October 10, 1986 (Fort Meade, Florida)
High School: Fort Meade HS; no college
Drafted: Pirates' 1st round pick (11th overall) of 2005 draft.
Scouting report (MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects 2009): He's a five-tool player with terrific athletic ability to go along with plus bat speed and good pitch recognition. The development of his power will determine whether he's a leadoff hitter or an eventual run producer. He has outstanding speed and is an excellent defensive center fielder, but is still learning the nuances of base-stealing.
Concerns: Better base-stealing techniques (48 SB, 24 CS in AAA, 67%), improvement against RHP, improve on 10% walk rate, develop more power. Overall, the worry is that he's still raw since the Pirates rushed him through their system.
Potential: Most of the major projection services have him hitting in the .260's this year with single-digit HRs and 20 SB; most fantasy pages peg him as a .280 batter. The longer-term question is whether he grows into a three hitter as he matures or stays at the top of the order.
Minor League Stats: 4 seasons +, 2,223 at-bats; .286 average; .362 OBP, 43 HR, 232 RBI, 330 R, 105 SB (75%), 10% walk rate, 15% K rate.
Minor League Awards: International League Player of the Month (May 2009); Picked for Futures Team, IL All-Star, named All-Star Game "Top Star," Baseball America's choice for #2 prospect in the IL(2008); Arizona Fall League Rising Star, All-AFL Prospect Team (2007); South Atlantic League All-Star & Most Outstanding Sally league major League prospect (2006).
Prospect Rankings: (Baseball America)
2006 - #50 MLB
2006 - #02 PGH
2007 - #13 MLB
2007 - #01 PGH
2008 - #14 MLB
2008 - #01 PGH
2009 - #33 MLB
2009 - #02 PGH
Bio: During McCutchen's junior year at Fort Meade High School in 2004 he batted .474 with 8 HR, 40 RBI, 45 stolen bases with only 5 strikeouts; his senior year was better when he hit .709 with 8-2B, 3-3B, 16 HR, and 42 RBI while named an All-State selection. He also played football and ran track.
McCutchen, who had a commitment to the University of Florida, signed with the Bucs after graduation as their #1 pick. By the end of 2006, the Pirates named him the organization's Minor League Player of the Year.
He's played at Bradenton, Williamsport, Hickory, Altoona, and Indianapolis. In Altoona, he was the youngest player in franchise history and the youngest playing in the Eastern League that season. His rise has been so rapid that last year at Indy was the first time the 22 year-old has played at one level for an entire season.
McCutch has been a Top 50 Prospect since 2006, and tore it up this spring. Most believe the only reason he didn't break camp with the team was to delay starting his arbitration clock, and that's not a bad idea. Now he's here; let the good times roll.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Pellas On The Pirates - Has McCutchen Hit The Wall?
Once again, the world wonders concerning Andrew McCutchen.
Generally speaking, when the higher ups tell you to "hit the ball on the ground and run", (as they apparently have told McCutchen, according to today's blurb in the GW) it usually means, "You're a punch and judy hitter but you sure are fast, so slap-hitting looks like the only way you're going to stick around." Is that anything to say to a supposedly elite prospect?
For comparison: does anyone think Eric Davis, who was even faster than the fleet McCutchen, was EVER told to "hit the ball on the ground and run"? And this was a guy who once stole 80---eighty!!!---bases in a single season! Of course, that's because Davis also had 30-plus home run power and usually hit for a respectable average, as well. Which is why nobody---NOBODY---ever told him he needed to stop hitting so many fly balls.
To be sure, no one was predicting that McCutchen was going to be Eric Davis v 2.0. But he was definitely thought to be the best high school player in the country the year he was drafted, and he was definitely thought to be, at minimum, a Gold Glove defender with a better than average all around offensive game. If the Pirates were confident he'd even be that good, let alone a player like Davis, would they be telling him what they're apparently telling him now?
McCutchen's numbers at Triple-A last season weren't terrible, and yes, he was young for his level, and yes, his defense is already more than adequate for the big time. But he definitely didn't set the world on fire at Indianapolis. Nor has he done so this spring in Florida, which is particularly disconcerting because the common perception was that he could force his way onto the 25 man roster with a strong spring.
The bottom line? If Pirates' brass is telling him, stop hitting so many fly balls, it probably means several things, none of them good.
One, that he has warning track power or at least doesn't hit the ball as far as he ought to be if he is going to be a fly ball hitter.
Two, that he also doesn't hit for enough of an average, and the brass figures he can add 10 or 20 points by outrunning the defense on ground balls. This is not a bad thing in and of itself, of course, but---cue the broken record---it's not the kind of thing you tell a truly elite hitting prospect.
Three, that management believes he's not likely to get significantly better than he is right now, and so they are trying to maximize McCutchen's raw athletic acumen as opposed to banking on improvement from his baseball skills. (In other words, running real fast in a straight line is not, in and of itself, a "baseball skill"; it is an athletic attribute that can be translated into on field performance, but it is not the same thing as hand-eye co-ordination or an innate knack for hitting the ball consistently hard.)
The inescapable conclusion, for me, is that Andrew McCutchen is in trouble. By extension, so are the Pirates. If he flames out, or merely ends up a significantly lesser player than he was thought to be when drafted, the team essentially loses the current crown jewel of the farm system.
While it's really not right in the end to load even more expectations on McCutchen than he already has to deal with, it's also plainly true that if he isn't what he was thought to be---which is to say, a near-phenom---then the Pirates immediate future is considerably darker than it was thought to be heading into this season.
Will the world come to an end if he is more Marvell Wynne than Mike Cameron? No. But the Pirates' rebuilding process will certainly be significantly lengthened, and there will be a ripple effect that will be felt throughout the entire organization, top to bottom. Unfair, yes. But that's reality.
(Will Pellas is back writing for GW with his periodic take on all things Bucco.)
Generally speaking, when the higher ups tell you to "hit the ball on the ground and run", (as they apparently have told McCutchen, according to today's blurb in the GW) it usually means, "You're a punch and judy hitter but you sure are fast, so slap-hitting looks like the only way you're going to stick around." Is that anything to say to a supposedly elite prospect?
For comparison: does anyone think Eric Davis, who was even faster than the fleet McCutchen, was EVER told to "hit the ball on the ground and run"? And this was a guy who once stole 80---eighty!!!---bases in a single season! Of course, that's because Davis also had 30-plus home run power and usually hit for a respectable average, as well. Which is why nobody---NOBODY---ever told him he needed to stop hitting so many fly balls.
To be sure, no one was predicting that McCutchen was going to be Eric Davis v 2.0. But he was definitely thought to be the best high school player in the country the year he was drafted, and he was definitely thought to be, at minimum, a Gold Glove defender with a better than average all around offensive game. If the Pirates were confident he'd even be that good, let alone a player like Davis, would they be telling him what they're apparently telling him now?
McCutchen's numbers at Triple-A last season weren't terrible, and yes, he was young for his level, and yes, his defense is already more than adequate for the big time. But he definitely didn't set the world on fire at Indianapolis. Nor has he done so this spring in Florida, which is particularly disconcerting because the common perception was that he could force his way onto the 25 man roster with a strong spring.
The bottom line? If Pirates' brass is telling him, stop hitting so many fly balls, it probably means several things, none of them good.
One, that he has warning track power or at least doesn't hit the ball as far as he ought to be if he is going to be a fly ball hitter.
Two, that he also doesn't hit for enough of an average, and the brass figures he can add 10 or 20 points by outrunning the defense on ground balls. This is not a bad thing in and of itself, of course, but---cue the broken record---it's not the kind of thing you tell a truly elite hitting prospect.
Three, that management believes he's not likely to get significantly better than he is right now, and so they are trying to maximize McCutchen's raw athletic acumen as opposed to banking on improvement from his baseball skills. (In other words, running real fast in a straight line is not, in and of itself, a "baseball skill"; it is an athletic attribute that can be translated into on field performance, but it is not the same thing as hand-eye co-ordination or an innate knack for hitting the ball consistently hard.)
The inescapable conclusion, for me, is that Andrew McCutchen is in trouble. By extension, so are the Pirates. If he flames out, or merely ends up a significantly lesser player than he was thought to be when drafted, the team essentially loses the current crown jewel of the farm system.
While it's really not right in the end to load even more expectations on McCutchen than he already has to deal with, it's also plainly true that if he isn't what he was thought to be---which is to say, a near-phenom---then the Pirates immediate future is considerably darker than it was thought to be heading into this season.
Will the world come to an end if he is more Marvell Wynne than Mike Cameron? No. But the Pirates' rebuilding process will certainly be significantly lengthened, and there will be a ripple effect that will be felt throughout the entire organization, top to bottom. Unfair, yes. But that's reality.
(Will Pellas is back writing for GW with his periodic take on all things Bucco.)
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