Tuesday: Niese v Wacha; Polanco Deal Official, Notes

Tonight: The Bucs host the Cards in game #2 of the season at PNC Park. The game begins at 7:05 and will be on 93.7 The Fan. The Bucs won't be on local TV, because the Pens are, but are on MLB Network. Dress warm if you're going; it's forecast to be dry but 40 degrees at first pitch and dropping.

Pitching: Jon Niese (9-10, 4.13) makes his Pirate debut against Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38). Niese tossed twice against the Redbirds last year, with one game a clunker and the other a gem. Wacha was 2-1 v the Bucs in 2015, with a 3.97 ERA.

Jon Niese makes his first Bucco start tonight (photo Dave Arrigo/Pirates)

Neither guy is coming off a particularly sterling spring, so we'll see what they have now that the games count.

Lineup: John Jaso 1B, Cutch CF, David Freese 3B, Starling Marte LF, Fran Cervelli C, Gregory Polanco RF, Josh Harrison 2B, Jordy Mercer SS, Niese.

• The Pirates officially announced today that they and Gregory Polanco, 24, agreed to a five-year contract, worth $35M, beginning in 2017. The contract has two club options, so El Coffee is under team control through the 2023 season. If exercised, the options would make the deal worth $58M,  w/$2M in incentives. The guaranteed part of the contract covers all of Polanco's arb campaigns and one free agent year; the options take in two more FA seasons.
• Jared Hughes hasn't been cleared to throw off a mound yet, although he has tossed from flat ground.
• The Cardinals put OF'er Tommy Pham on the 15 day DL after he strained an oblique while making a between-innings warm up throw Monday. That bumps Matt Holliday back into LF from his platoon first base spot.
• More leftover Opening Day stat stuff: Frankie was the first Pirate to toss three straight OD's since Doug Drabek (1990-92); Cutch became the first CF'er to start seven consecutive openers since Andy Van Slyke (1988-94), and in a reverse trend, John Jaso was the eighth different 1B'man to start on Opening Day in the past eight years. And this, from Baseball Reference: Liriano also set a lumber standard with yesterday's run-producing single. The last time a pitcher had the first RBI of the MLB season was in 1973, when Don Gullett did it for the Reds. 
• Keon Broxton not only made the big club, but he was the Brewers' Opening Day CF.

Polanco Joins Cutch, Marte, Josh With A Long-Term Deal

El Coffee and the Pirates have hammered out a deal covering the next five campaigns with two option years, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. The report has been confirmed by beat writers Adam Berry of MLB.com and Matt Gajtka of DK Pittsburgh Sports, so it sniffs out as legit. The press gang expects a Tuesday announcement of the agreement.

Polanco, 24, was under team control through 2020 via arb. This deal is said to begin next season and cover his first FA year (2021) with a pair of team options afterward, so the Pirates will potentially hold Polanco's rights through 2023, his age 31 season. The deal is expected to be in the mid-$30M range with bigger money back loaded in the options.

Gregory Polanco joins the long-term club (image: Root Sports)

Gregory had rejected a previous seven-year, $25M offer before his MLB debut in June 2014 and another effort to agree to a contract fell short again last year. A little extra sugar convinced him and his agents, the Beverly Hills Sports Council, to pull the trigger this time around, opting for security over the a future dice roll.The team has fixed a down-the-road cost and probably at a bargain rate.

The Pirates signed Polanco as a Dominican FA in 2009, when Rene Gayo inked him for $150K. He became a highly rated minor league center fielder, falling in everyone's Top 25 Prospect lists before his call-up. Gregory's now beginning his third MLB season, with a .249/.316/.369 slash in 964 PAs with a 90 OPS+ and 41 stolen bases in 2014-15. His strong second half in 2015 helped his cause; his line was .276/.324/.425. While he's expected to grow into a more mature hitter and add some power with age (he is 6'5", 230 lbs), his glove is already big league with a 6.8 UZR and 18 outfield assists despite the occasional blooper.

The FO is treading a familiar path. Cutch, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison all signed deals that carried into free agency, with options, into their age 31-32 years. Then again, there was Jose Tabata... But this deal looks like another winner; if it ends up with $35M guaranteed over five seasons (Ken Rosenthal's number). That's about today's going rate for a 1-WAR player, and Polanco was a 2.6 WAR guy in 2015.(Of course, there's no way to figure what his arb years would have been worth; often these agreements are made as much for financial certainty/player security than actual dollar projections).

It also, barring injuries and assuming performance is up to snuff, leaves the Pirates with some outfield trinkets to use as future trade bait, with guys like Harold Ramirez, Willie Garcia, Tito Polo and Barrett Barnes floating around in the system.

El Coffee - One For The Record Books

It wasn't enough that Gregory Polanco went 5-for-7 and smacked his first MLB homer (a 13th inning game-winner). El Coffee got his name in the major league and Pirate record books, and not just once.

Batting leadoff with Josh Harrison on ice, Polanco opened the game in Miami with a single and scored on Starling Marte’s homer. He struck out in his second at-bat missing a slider, but in the fifth he again led off with a single, plating on Ike Davis' double. He was left aboard after singles in the sixth and eighth. Up with two on and two out in the 10th, El Coffee worked Marlins closer Steve Cishek to a full count, but struck out looking at a slider that was borderline low.

Payback is sweet as Polanco proved in 13th against LOOGY Mike Dunn. With one out and Clint Barmes on second, Gregory was facing a 2-2 count, fouled off a slider, then waited out a mound conference between Marlins catcher Jeff Mathis and Dunn. He hit the next slider, hung by Dunn, 413 feet to left center for his first major league home run. It was the first game his mom watched him play, and to boot, the Miami fan that caught his blast graciously gave the ball up to Polanco. The records broken with that drive:

• Polanco became the only player in the modern era (post-1914) to have five hits and a home run in one of his first four MLB games. Montreal Expo Mike Lansing had the previous record , set in his fifth game on April 11th, 1993 against Colorado. 
• El Coffee was the third rookie to put up a five-hit performance by his fourth game. The two guys who are ahead of him actually had five hits in their MLB debuts - Cecil Travis of the Washington Senators did it on May 16th, 1933, against the Indians, and before him was old Bucco Hall-of-Fame OF'er and manager Fred Clarke, who did it for Louisville on June 30th, 1894, against the Phillies. On April 17th, 1918, the Braves Red Massey went 5-for-6 in his second major league game against the Boston Braves; it would be his only season in the show.
• Polanco became just the second rookie since 1900 to collect five or more hits in a game and hit a game-winning home run in extra innings. Willie Montanez went 5-for-5 with a game-winning home run for the Phillies when they beat the Cardinals in St. Louis on September 13th, 1971.
• Polanco (22.272 years old) is the third youngest player since 1914 to have a five-hits with a homer game while batting leadoff, behind Joe Morgan (21.292) & Jose Cardenal (22.236).
• Gregory is the first Pirate player with four or more hits in a game before his fifth contest since Brock Holt, also in game #4, did it on September 4th, 2012, against the Houston Astros. 
• Polanco is also the first Buc to have at least eight hits in the first four games of his career since Jack Merson in 1951. Merson collected 11 knocks in a five game span and 14 hits in eight games that season - as a September call-up! 
• Polanco became the fastest Pirate rookie to bang out five hits in a game, passing "The Rock," John Wehner, who did the deed in his fifth game on July 23rd, 1991, against Atlanta. Neil Walker was the last Pittsburgh rookie to have a five-hit game, on July 20th, 2010 against the Brewers. 

(Thanks to MLB.com, Sports Illustrated, Elias Sports Bureau, ESPN and Baseball Reference for all the stuff.)

Polanco: Is He Or Isn't He?

Is he on the way or not? We speculated earlier that Gregory Polanco's call-up date would fall Friday, not based on sources but on scheduling and service time - the Bucs would start a big home stand after a coast trip, and Polanco would start his clock on a time that would leave him with 115 service days, a week fewer than the earliest Super Two date since it began.

Seemed safe and sane. Then Tim Williams, Ken Rosenthal, Chris Cotillo and Dan Zangrilli - two local and two national guys - broke the story last night that their sources told them that Polanco would indeed be in Pittsburgh Friday.

And no wonder - Polanco went from a Top 50 to Top 15 to Top 3 prospect in a year, and has a slash of .357/.412/.550 and good counting numbers - 6 HR, 48 RBI, 45 runs, 14-of-19 stealing and even four outfield assists. The Bucs have been prepping him in RF this year and started batting him leadoff recently, both indicators that he was on the fast track.

Then a strange thing happened - after getting that blast of all-good buzz from the rumor mill, the Pirates got on the horn to all the main stream local media guys, denying the promotion was coming on Friday. Soon, they said, but not Friday. Man, talk about bursting a bubble.

Much media finger-pointing and name-calling ensued. But the trouble here isn't shaky sources or quick-to-print journalists, unless the same source has Williams', Rosenthal's, Cotillo's and Zangrilli's ear, but the Bucco PR people. It would be like them to softshoe his promotion, which locally and nationally ranks with Pedro Alvarez's and Gerrit Cole's debuts in terms of fan interest, to focus attention on the draft - or to take attention, which they translate as pressure, away from Polanco.

So we'll see how it shakes out. Friday almost makes too much sense for Polanco's debut; maybe he'll come up for the next series against the Cubs, although with Starling Marte collecting splinters now, there's no reason to delay his arrival. But with the Pirates, well, who knows? This we do know: the team will be better both short term and long when he does hit the roster.

Polanco's Offer...

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported that Gregory Polanco was offered and rejected a long-term deal in the spring with the Bucs. The deal was for seven guaranteed years for nearly $25M with three option years, thought to be worth $10M, $12M and $14M tops, making it a ten-year deal worth $60M+ and carrying Polanco into his age 31 season.

In 29 games at Indy, Polanco, 22, has hit .397 with four home runs, 23 R, 26 RBI, six stolen bases and a 1.070 OPS.The Pirates are currently playing spin-the-bottle in right field, keeping the spot warm until June when Polanco can come up without cracking Super 2 status.

And there's the rub. Everyone - especially Polanco - knows he's ready for MLB. The Pittsburgh FO has used a strategy of signing guys long term to team-friendly deals, like Cutch, Starling Marte and even Jose Tabata. It's almost a necessity for small-revenue markets. But Polanco knows that not only is he MLB ready, but if lives up to the hype, he might double what the Pirates are offering him in the next ten years.

It's the new tactic of MLB teams - to offer contracts under market value to counter Super Two status,  assuming some risk and allowing the youngsters to start plying their profession. As they say, it's hard to turn down your first fortune. But for guys in the fast lane like Polanco, it may well be worth the shot at the golden goose rather than the long-term security of an under-market deal.

And a point to consider is that the deal is comparable in many ways to Cutch's; it may be under-valued compared to free agency, but a fair deal to a guy without an at-bat in the show. But value is in the eye of the beholder. And it does show the Pirates and Polanco are talking; like Marte's contract, it's probably a starting point for further negotiations.

The Houston Astros offered a similar seven-year, $23 million contract to their top minor league prospect, outfielder George Springer, who also turned it down. Like Polanco, he didn't start the season with the club, and risks losing Super 2 status, but has bigger professional and financial goals in mind. And his recent call-up was because the contract offer gave him grounds to claim that he's being kept in the minors for financial reasons (a no-no that teams manage to dodge rather easily); we'll see if Polanco takes the same tact.

The practice itself isn't inherently a ploy to short change players; not all, like JT, will pan out. But it is inherently a response to Super 2, and that special status is the problem. Passan suggests it be tied to performance rather than time; we think it should just be eliminated for a straight two or three year pre-arbitration period for young players.  

Then maybe we'd get to see Gregory Polanco in right field at PNC Park instead of killing time at Victory Field in Indianapolis.

Gregory Polanco

Gregory Polanco, 22, was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2009 for $150,000 as a lanky, athletic outfielder who featured physical tools but was still a project. He went through some ups and downs until 2012, when he had his breakout season.

His line at Class A West Virginia that season was .325/.388/.522 with 16 homers and 40 stolen bases, and that got him on the radar. In 2013, he took advantage, rising through three minor league levels to end up at Indy.

Going into that 2013 season, Polanco was ranked as the 50th best prospect in baseball by Minor League Ball (John Sickels), #51 by Baseball America, and #65 by MLB.com. In mid season, Baseball Prospectus jumped Polanco to #12 from a pre-season rank of #44 while he went from #51 to #22 in ESPN's (Keith Law) ratings. He received a bit more recognition when he represented the Pirates at the 2013 All-Star Futures Game.

Polanca started last season at High A Bradenton and by June he was promoted to Altoona. Class AA is the big step in a prospect's career, and after a slow start, Polanco settled in, hitting .263 with a .354 OBP. More importantly, he wasn't overmatched. He walked the same number of times as he K'ed - 36, 12.6% - and showed the plate discipline that's often missing in Latino prospects' games. Polanco got a cup-of-coffee stop at Indy in late August.

He'll start 2014 at Indy - he only got nine AB there last year, with a couple of singles - and the combination of Jose Tabata's (or whomever's) right field performance in Pittsburgh and the lefty's learning curve in AAA will determine how quickly he arrives in the show.

He still has a list of things to check off. His swing tends to be a little long, not too surprising for a tall kid, and he's been making strides in shortening it during the season. Though his strikeout rate is certainly acceptable, he could use a little more two-strike discipline. Polanco's greatest value defensively is his range and his route-running is sometimes circular rather than straight line.

But his plusses overwhelm what appear to be lack-of-experience issues. His overall plate discipline should eventually carry over to his two strike approach. His average has been solid the past couple of seasons, with gap power. That should grow to 15-25 HR power in Pittsburgh. Although listed as 6'4", 170 lb., the reports this summer claim Polanco is now a mature 6'5", 215 pounder.

An outfield of he, Starling Marte and Cutch is a track meet waiting to happen. And he has 30+ stolen base potential. If you think that sounds a lot like last year's report on Starling Marte, it does, except Polanco is a bit more polished. No surprise there, as both hail from Santo Domingo and consider themselves brothers growing up in the Pirate organization. Additionally, he'll provide a lefty stick to balance the OF, and his splits the last couple of seasons have been excellent (.285 v RHP, .291 v LHP).

He's already tearing it up in the Fall Dominican League. That should provide him with a running start as he gets ready to suit up in AAA next season. He'll be added to the 40 man roster this year; and the question isn't whether he'll earn a spot on the active roster, barring injury, in 2014, but when.

Gregory Polanco

When the Pirates signed Gregory Polanco in 2009, they weren't sure what exactly they had. The 17 year old from Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic claimed a $75K bonus, and was selected because he looked like a ballplayer - at 6' 4", 170 lb., he was tall, lanky, and athletic with plus speed and a good arm, with the added advantage of being a lefty. The teen had the textbook body type, and the scouts hoped his hitting would follow as he filled out.

He spent the 2009 campaign in the DSL, where he hit .267 with a .370 OBP as a right fielder. Polanco showed little power, with a 19% K and 13% walk rate. Nothing was out of line considering his age, and he was moved along to the GCL in 2010 after some time at the Academy (which is the home of the DSL/DWL Pirates).

The Dominican began at the bottom of the rung in Bradenton. He hit just .202, again showing little power. His peripherals took a beating: his K rate rose to 21% and his walk rate dropped to 5%. One bright spot was his base stealing - he swiped 19-of-21 bases, fourth in the league. Polanco also got a taste of center field, his natural spot, though he mostly played right again.

Repeating in the GCL in 2011, the light began to come on, although his stats didn't jump out at all. He hit .237 with little power, but his OBP jumped from .245 in 2010 to .333 in 2011. Polanco's K rate was more manageable at 16% and his walk rate was back in double figures at 12%. He was a perfect 18-for-18 in steals, and was moving into a more premium spot at center, splitting time with Willy Garcia, a highly touted product from Polanco's hometown who signed in 2010 for $280K. Polanco responded to the challenge well, throwing out eight baserunners.

He got a cup of coffee at State College, playing three games for the Spikes. Polanco then skipped a level and was moved to Low A West Virginia in the Sally League for 2012, as his improved eye and continued strong play in the pasture indicated to the Bucs that he was ready for full-season baseball. They were right.

Polanco blew up for the Power. He put together a slash of .325/.388/.522, and got stronger as the year went on. The 20 year old was now 6'5" and up to maybe 210 lbs, and he banged 26 doubles and 16 homers with his new found bulk - and he still has room to grow. The plate recognition continued, too. Polanco worked deep counts, and his K rate was 13% with a walk rate of 9%, so he wasn't trading plate discipline to swing for the fences. The youngster stole 40 sacks in 55 tries, a 73% success rate. And he became the full-time center fielder.

His breakout year earned him a cabinet full of hardware. He was named to the Sally League's mid and post season All-Star teams, the SAL's Outstanding MLB Prospect, Topp's Sally League Player of the Year, and Baseball America rated him as the league's #3 prospect. The Pirates selected Polanco as their 2012 Minor League Player of the Year. Not too bad a year for a guy who was unranked among Pirate prospects entering the season; you can bet he's in everyone's Bucco Top Ten now.

His only bummer was an ankle injury in early August that caused him to miss three weeks of the season. There were reports that he reinjured it during the Bucs' military training drills, but if he did, it wasn't of any major consequence. He's now playing winter ball for Leones del Escogido in the DWL with teammates Starling Marte and Altoona pitcher Kris Johnson.

Polanco will likely open 2013 with High Class A Bradenton at age 21, which puts him on track if all goes well to arrive in Pittsburgh sometime in 2015. And even with his toolkit, he's a raw product and still has a fairly extensive punchlist before he's ready for the show.

His swing needs some work; it's a little on the long side, mostly due to his size and long arms. Polanco does have quick hands, so shortening the swing shouldn't be a major issue; he's already worked on it at WV. Ditto with his fielding. Polanco is already an above average fielder, but like many athletic guys, his speed makes up for read and route mistakes, and more experience should bring more efficiency to his jumps.

Base running and stealing are also on his "to-do" list. He's a little slow out of the box, though his long strides make up for that in a hurry. The stride is what he needs to work on; it sometimes makes him choppy on the basepaths getting to a sack and making a turn. That's probably nit-picking, but after watching the big team run the bases, it would be nice to see a polished product off to the races in Pittsburgh.

Polanco is going to be a different sort of player when he arrives at PNC Park; he'll probably have matured enough physically to be a corner, rather than center, fielder. But with that should also be increased power. It could be that the Pirates finally have their right fielder, even if he's a couple or three years away.