Pellas On the Pirates: Small Market Reality

Reality Bites Back Hard!

One thing we can say for certain is that the current Pirates brass definitely did not intend to do another Aramis Ramirez deal when they traded Jason Bay and Xavier Nady during the 2008 season.

In one sense you could say those were "salary dump" trades, because the club had obviously decided it wasn't going to pony up to re-sign Bay and Nady long term. I have no problem with that decision in principle.

It would be different if the club was closer to contender status, but unfortunately our pitching staff went completely off the deep end this season, and that is not likely amenable to a quick fix. Plus, we would have lost significant trade leverage by hanging onto Bay and Nady until next season, at which point opposing GMs would be lining up for the fire sale.

I will add that our front office also made a clear and powerful statement by doling out large sums of money for our amateur draft picks this year. We can expect that that policy will continue into the next couple of seasons at least.

Bottom line: I have no problem in principle with what the Pirates chose to do, ie, to spend their money on drafting and developing young players en masse as opposed to committing perhaps $15 million per on Bay and Nady for the next 3-4 years. That is a wise move as far as I am concerned.

However, the hard reality is that there is always risk with this strategy. No matter how well the Florida Marlins, Minnesota Twins, and Oakland A's have sailed this course themselves, there simply is no guarantee that young players acquired in trade will equal, replace, or exceed the production lost when the veteran(s) leaves town.

So far, the Nady trade still looks at least respectable, while the Bay trade looks disastrous. If Brandon Moss is permanently affected by what looks like a serious if not catastrophic knee injury, we're down to Andy LaRoche, Whatsisname Hansen, and A-baller Brian Morris. It is quite possible that NONE of these players will ever be a significant contributor in a Pirates uniform.

That's the nature of the necessary risk a team like the Pirates must take from time to time. And oh by the way: re-signing your veterans to humongous long term deals doesn't always work out, either. Look at the Yankees with Jason Giambi (yes I know they got him as a free agent, but my point here has to do with his bazillion dollar contract).

Yes, we'll miss Jason and "X" and maybe even Damaso Marte---assuming he doesn't come right back to Pittsburgh this offseason as a free agent, a move I would welcome. But the Bucs still did the right thing, no matter how this all turns out in the end, and they must continue to do the right thing in the future. That's small market reality.

Rainblast Pre Game

The Bucs signed sixth round pick Robbie Grossman, a Texas high school OF'er. He's 18, 6-1, 190 pounds. He won the Josh Beckett Award for the Houston area's top player in 2008 as a senior at Cypress-Fairbanks HS after he hit 11 home runs.

Grossman was a member of USA Baseball's junior team in 2007, batting .450 at the Pan-Am Junior Championships and earning a spot on the all Pan-Am team.

Grossman's bonus is for $1 million, plus money for a college education. That makes the switch-hitter the most costly Pirate draftee so far and gives him signing money equal to a late first-round pick.

He lasted until the sixth round because he was considered next to impossible to sign, with a scholarship to Texas already in hand. The Pirate suits considered him the equivalent of a second rounder. He'll report to Bradenton in the GCL.

> Dejan Kovacevic wrote that 5th rounder LHP Justin Wilson signed exactly at slot value, for a bonus of $195,000.

> The much-anticipated Adam and Andy LaRoche debut is finally expected to take place tonight, weather permitting, when the Pirates wrap up a three-game series against the Reds at PNC Park. It'll be the first time they've ever played on the same team.

> State College Spikes' infielders Chase d'Arnaud and Jeremy Farrell were named to the New York-Penn League All-Stars. The game will be played Tuesday in Troy, N.Y.

d’Arnaud is hitting .302 for the Spikes in 23 games. The shortstop has collected six doubles, four triples and 10 RBI. 3B Farrell, who was voted in at 1B, is also hitting .302 with six doubles. In 31 games, Farrell has 16 RBI and two triples.

> Pittsburgh's suits really were working the phones at the trade deadline, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark:

Speaking of Pirates deals that almost happened, it's incredible how many teams thought they were on the verge of some kind of pre-deadline trade with Pittsburgh that fell through when the Jason Bay/Ramirez extravaganza came together.

Indications are that, with only minutes left until the deadline, the Rays still thought they were in line to trade for Bay, the Rockies apparently thought they had a shot to reel in Ian Snell, the Marlins believed they'd be the third team in the Manny/Bay deal, and the Phillies thought that the Grabow trade was very much alive.

Then the Pirates opted to focus all their last-minute energies on that Boston/L.A. blockbuster. So the only thing those other clubs got out of it was fewer rollover minutes on their cell phone bills in August.

In the hours after the trading deadline, we were critical of the Pirates for dealing three high-profile players without getting back a single can't-miss, centerpiece prospect back. But in the days since, we've been convinced by executives of several teams that the Pirates actually did better in their two big deals than we originally gave them credit for.

"There are no stars in there, but they need that depth of talent," an official of one club said. "They need numbers. And they accomplished that."

"I think they're on the right track," one NL scout said. "At least they decided they couldn't keep doing the same thing they've been doing and took some chances."

One NL executive even defended them on the widely hammered Xavier Nady-Damaso Marte deal, saying: "If they got three major league pitchers in that deal, and I think they did, then great for them. And all three guys (Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf and Daniel McCutchen) are either ready or close. So that's a good deal, not a bad deal."

Nevertheless, when asked to name the best player of the eight this team received in those trades, the baseball men we spoke with had a tough time finding a clear-cut Pirates acquisition they'd buy stock in. The name we heard most: 21-year-old right-hander Bryan Morris (3.15 ERA in low Class A). "If he stays healthy, he's definitely the best talent in that group," one GM said.

Saturday pre game

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN chimes in on the the Pirates deals:

The consensus is that Brandon Moss has a chance to be a consistent .800 OPS guy at a corner outfield spot, which could equate to the Dodgers' Andre Ethier or Texas' David Murphy.

Even if Moss is just an average producer, it saves the Pirates from overpaying for another Jeromy Burnitz type on the free-agent market. The same applies to Andy LaRoche at third base and Jeff Karstens at the back end of the Pittsburgh rotation.

The biggest mystery among the new Pirates is Jose Tabata, who was rated the Yankees' No. 2 prospect by Baseball America in 2007. That was before he walked out on his Double-A team in Trenton in the middle of a game and received a three-game suspension.

It's rare to see a 19-year-old phenom's stock drop so quickly. But Tabata is now saddled with the "bad makeup'' label and has a lot of image reparation to do.

The Pirates, naturally, are confident that he can. They did exhaustive research and determined that Tabata cares, wants to be the best and is a driven player at heart. But he struggled with the cold spring weather in Trenton, experienced failure for the first time and did not respond well.

"He made a huge mistake and was extremely remorseful for it," Neal Huntington said. "He's still dealing with maturity issues, as most 19-year-olds are."

> SS Jack Wilson was a late scratch with right shoulder stiffness last night, but it doesn't seem to be anything too serious. He batted as a pinch-hitter in the 12th and reached base on an infield single. Luis Rivas took his spot.

> Ex-Buc Brian Giles is staying put. Boston claimed him from the waiver wire, some say out of legitimate interest, and others say to block Tampa Bay from landing him, but either way, he's not leaving the coast. It was reported that he'd veto a deal to Boston even if one could be struck.

The Bosox weren't willing to pay very dear a price for him because they feared he'd rejoin the Padres after the season, so they saw him as a two-month, playoff rental.

Pellas on the Pirates: What We Have - And Need

How Many Pieces Does Pittsburgh Have?

Now that the dust from our recent Big Deals has settled, I thought I'd take a last look at the players we recently acquired and peer through the gloom to try and figure out what we do---and do not---have.

The pitching we acquired brings good numbers and some promise, if not much in the way of "sure things". Most observers have emphasized the pitching when they have analyzed the Nady/Marte and Bay trades, and rightly so for the most part. But not many have given much thought to our lineup, which is now substantially different---and much weaker.

One question that's readily apparent now that the team has been substantially reconfigured is, Where are we going to get the offense to replace what was lost? I like Brandon Moss, and if he reaches his maximum potential he might be roughly equivalent to what Xavier Nady gave us over the course of his Pittsburgh career (unless Nady continues for years to come at his current, unconscious-career year pace; stay tuned on that front).

Moss---in keeping with the Pirates' American League-style player acquisitions and player development philosophies---definitely doesn't, and won't, steal many bases. Nady didn't either, so that's a wash, and they seem to be comparable defensive players (which is to say, they're both better than average). Andy LaRoche, one would think, will ultimately hit more than Jose Bautista, the man he is replacing. How much better he will be than Bautista---if he really is better than Bautista---remains to be seen.

Meanwhile Andrew McCutchen is coming up from our own system and will presumably be in center while Nate McLouth shifts over to right, though with Nate possibly winning the Gold Glove in center this season, who knows? It might be that Nate will stay in center and McCutchen will go to right. In any event, while Moss might perhaps come close to Nady's production and LaRoche might be a bit better than Bautista, certainly neither Nate nor McCutchen = Jason Bay.

Seems to me, therefore, that we're still short a stick or two going forward, at least the way things look right now. This is particularly so because the Pirates, as they are being shaped and reshaped by Neil Huntington and Frank Coonelly, are simply not emphasizing traditional, National League "small ball".

Power arms, power bats, and sound defense are all part of the Huntington-Coonelly modus operandi, but stolen bases, the squeeze play, and the hit and run most definitely are not.

Even expert basestealer Nate McLouth has just 13 swipes all season, and unless he's hurt, the only explanation is that he's essentially forbidden to run unless expressly instructed to do so by manager John Russell. Jason Bay was second on the team in SBs prior to leaving town for Boston, and he wasn't even in double figures. Nobody else is even on the radar screen.

Now, before the sabremetricians and/or Chris Duffy - Nyjer Morgan apologists start popping off, I am well aware that you can't steal first base and that what counts most in "small ball" is not how much you do it, but rather how often you're successful when you try it.

But it's now clear that the Pirates under Huntington and Coonelly aren't even going to try it very often. That, in turn, means that losing two power bats in Nady and Bay hurts this team more than it would some others, and it means that we must acquire additional hitting going forward.

This is another reason why I am definitely in favor of re-signing Jason Michaels, because a solid veteran fourth outfielder bat at least gives us more depth, even if our starting lineup is somewhat weaker now than it was at the start of the season.

In any event, another big bat will have to either be developed in house, or signed as a free agent (perhaps to replace Adam LaRoche at first?), or acquired in trade. I do not believe that this team, as currently configured and as it is likely to look over the next couple of seasons, has enough hitting to be a contender.

(Will Pellas is GW's columnist at large and periodically posts on Pirate topics. Today he tackles the new-look Bucs.)

Win, Lose, or Draw?

Some thoughts about the Buc's wheelin' and dealin' from the gurus:

Jaso Starks, ESPN:

No seller made two bigger trades in the past week than the Pirates. Up the Monongahela went Nady, Marte and Bay. Down the river came eight young players of varying age, experience and reputation.

We found people in baseball who love the upside of 21-year-old right-hander Bryan Morris, the one-time No. 1 pick the Pirates got from the Dodgers in the Bay trade. We found others who love the stuff of Ross Ohlendorf and the makeup of Daniel McCutchen (both of whom arrived in the Marte/Nady deal). And the three older players they got in the Bay trade (Andy LaRoche, Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss) are all big-league-ready.

But the word we heard used most to describe the Pirates' return in these two trades was "quantity." Which isn't always a compliment.

"Did the Pirates get one young impact player back in any deal?" wondered an executive of one team. "My answer is no. Did they get an Evan Longoria-type they could drop in the middle of their order? Did they get a No. 1 starter? I don't see that. To me, they went for numbers. … Yeah, they built depth in their system. But they just traded Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. That's three awfully big chips. And I'm looking for that one slam-dunk guy -- a guy who can make an impact on a lineup or on a pitching staff. And I just can't find one."

Then again, in fairness to the Pirates, you can also argue that no team was able to trade for an impact player like that, because there just wasn't one to be had. And we'll say this for the Pirates: It wasn't for lack of trying. It seemed as if they asked for every young impact player in the minor leagues at some point or another. So it's telling that they didn't get even one guy like that back. But hey, here's the best part of all:

At least this year went a heck of a lot better than last year's Deadline Day (when they swooped in to trade for the disaster that was Matt Morris, who will be collecting the last two months of the $13 million the Pirates owed him on a beach someplace).

Jon Heyman, Sports Illustrated "Inside Baseball":

They did the right thing by moving Nady, Marte and Bay, and they deserve applause for the guts to do what was necessary. But unfortunately for them, even in this supposed sellers' market, no one wanted to surrender a top prospect.

If you'll notice, the only premium prospect traded this summer was slugger Matt LaPorta, (and to get him from the Brewers, the Indians had to trade the great Sabathia). So the Pirates couldn't get Hellickson, Niemann or Brignac from the Rays, or Fernando Martinez or Jon Niese from the Mets. They appeared to do fine in the Bay deal, but in the deal for Marte, a guy the Yankees absolutely had to have, they came up a little short. "They got nothing,'' one GM said. "The only one we like is (Ross) Ohlendorf, and he's average.''

The Pirates apparently like talented and immature outfielder Jose Tabata more than most others, including the Yankees, who had given up on the idea that he was ever going to be a star.

Ken Rosentahl, Fox Sports:

The Pirates, too, made the right call, trading Bay when his value was at its peak, rather than last offseason, after it had plummeted. True, none of the players they acquired looks like a future star. But in this trade and the much-maligned Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte deal, the Pirates added eight young players. Some are bound to succeed.

LaRoche should be a solid major-league third baseman. Moss, in the Red Sox's own opinion, could start for many clubs. Hansen hasn't shown he can throw consistent strikes, but he might thrive outside of Boston, where he faced the pressure of being a former No. 1 pick. Morris already has had his Tommy John surgery — a good thing these days — and joins former Yankees Ross Ohlendorf and Daniel McCutchen as potential members of the Pirates' future rotation.

Pirates president Frank Coonelly and GM Neal Huntington already have taken a markedly different approach than their predecessors, demonstrating a willingness to make tough decisions and big deals. Whether Huntington chose the right players remains to be seen, but at least the Pirates were in there swinging with the Yankees and Red Sox.

Gene Collier, Post Gazette:

Pirates general manager Neal Huntington, in his first summer at one of the worst jobs in baseball, has traded two-thirds of one of the most productive outfields in baseball (Xavier Nady and Bay) plus one of the top situational bullpen lefties in the game (Damaso Marte) for eight prospects on the theory that virtually all baseball life within Pittsburgh's minor league system has been wiped out by the Comet Littlefield.

If that's the situation -- and I'm not suggesting for a second that it isn't -- what good does it do to have Andy LaRoche, outfielder Brandon Moss, and pitchers Craig Hansen, Jeff Karstens, and soon Ross Ohlendorf on the major league roster? How is that strengthening a foundation of rubble?

Huntington and CEO Frank Coonelly will tell you they are adding depth, and the plain fact is, anyone who still cares has to take it on faith that they're right. Not only strategically, but in their ongoing evaluations. Results are due in 2010 or 2011.

Maybe Andy LaRoche, rated the Dodgers' second-best prospect before this season by Baseball America, will turn into the kind of corner infielder who is consistently productive, a player that is, you know, unlike his brother. Maybe Hansen, a former first-round pick with high-grade gas will turn into reliable power pitcher instead of just another Pirate lugging around a major league earned run average that's north of six. Maybe Brandon Moss and Jose Tabata will turn into outfielders with greater upsides than Nady and Bay. Maybe Jeff Karstens, who joins the rotation this afternoon, will get the consistent outs that eluded him as a Yankee. Maybe Bryan Morris, just 21, will emerge in two years as a top-of-the-rotation horse.

That's a lot of maybein'.

Joe Starkey, Tribune Review:

The verdict on this trade cannot fairly be rendered for at least a few years.

Maybe longer, considering the player with the highest upside might be 21-year-old power pitcher Bryan Morris, who has recovered from Tommy John surgery and is throwing well in Class A. He is a "top-shelf prospect," according to Baseball America.

The others - third baseman Andy LaRoche, outfielder Brandon Moss and right-handed reliever Craig Hansen - all have been considered top prospects at one time or another but have yet to make a mark in the major leagues.

Now, they'll get their chance.

After the Nady trade, I asked general manager Neal Huntington if his plan to build with young talent could be correlated in any way to what the Penguins have done.

"We feel we're moving in that direction," he said. "Obviously, Sidney Crosby and other young players you put into the system are going right into the NHL, so it's a lot easier to have that dramatic turnaround.

"In baseball, it's not quite that easy. That's where depth becomes important. You have to have multiple options and can't be relying on just one or two key pieces."

The next step better be to sign first-round draft pick Pedro Alvarez, no matter the cost, by the Aug. 15 deadline.

At that point, the Pirates can point to Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and whoever emerges from the bevy of recent draft picks and recently acquired prospects as tangible signs of a better future.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course. Huntington might prove every bit as unskilled as his predecessors. Owner Bob Nutting might never spend enough money to field a legitimate contender.

But I'm willing to give this thing a chance.

There wasn't anything touching on Pittsburgh in the Boston or LA papers, which understandably were having a field day with Manny-mania.

The only noteworthy items were that the Bucs tried to pry some elite arms from LA with Morris being the top gun they were willing to deal, and that Boston hung on to Moss till the deadline because he was Plan B if Manny left or was cut without another OF coming aboard.