OK, we're not quite so down on the McLouth deal as everyone else, like GW's erstwhile commentator Will Pellas, seem to be.
Now we're not exactly enraptured by the return the Bucs got. CF Gorkys Hernandez, 21, is a speedster with a great glove and popgun bat; he could end up being a lead-off hitter or the sitting in the eight hole. He sounds suspiciously to us like Andrew McCutchen lite.
RHP Charlie Morton, 25, could be a late bloomer; he was wracked in Atlanta last year, but was pitching with an achy back. He could end up as a back-of-the-rotation guy, a set-up man, or John Van Benschoten's second coming.
The management hopes that he performs well enough to at least become a burr under the saddles of Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, and yes, Ian Snell, unlike anyone currently at Indy. And they need a couple of sticks to wave at them about now.
Young LHP Jeff Locke, 21, is the biggest gamble. The report on him is that if he can improve his changeup, he has the ability to become a #2-3 starter; his fastball and curve are already plus pitches.
Like Bryan Morris, he's got a high ceiling, but time will tell. He should probably be up to the AA level at his age, but they're starting him at Lynchburg.
Now we'd like to have seen a top gun or ace in the deal. But the Pirate suits must have liked what they saw. By all accounts, they weren't pushing McLouth or dumping salary.
They thought the Braves offered them a nice baseball deal. Hey, it's like every other move for prospects. Get three, hope one or two sticks as a contributor down the road.
They also did what they had to eventually do, which is clear a spot for McCutchen; you can't tell a kid that's ready to play that he has to tread water endlessly until he bunts better.
And face it - McLouth is 27, and McCutch is 22. McCutch runs as well, fields better, and will probably have a better OBP. But he won't have the pop. And that's the downside of the deal. Take away Pedro Alvarez and maybe Jose Tabata, and there are no big boppers in the organization. They need to find a couple.
One thing we wouldn't be too concerned about is grumbling from the locker room. The older guys can read; they already know they're on the MLB version of Craig's List.
The younger guys are trying to make a name for themselves in the show and at the same time, claim ownership of the team. Both cadres are pros, and the season has a long way to play out yet.
No, what really bugs us about the trade is the way it breaks trust with the faithful. The Pirate Armada thought that inking McLouth, Ryan Doumit, and Paul Maholm was securing the core of the team. But now it looks like more of the same ol', same ol'.
It's not the suits fault that Dave Littlefield and Kevin McClatchy left them a Lazerus to raise. But it is their fault that they aren't honest about their goals. Don't tell the ticket-buyers that the aim is to win now when the truth is that you're rebuilding a system that's dysfunctional. They've yet to receive replacement value in a trade.
Ya know what the fans are talking about now? How down the road, they're gonna dump McCutch to clear a spot for Hernandez. Why not? They've done it with every other good ballplayer that's come through Pittsburgh in the last fifteen years.
That's the attitude the suits have to overcome, and they don't seem to realize it. Fans are many things, but they're not fools. They know BS from plain speakin' by now.
Ah, well. Maybe McCutch will become the Rookie-of-the-Year and the Bucs will win 83 games. That will quiet the crowd.
Showing posts with label nate mclouth trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nate mclouth trade. Show all posts
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Pellas On The Pirates: Thumbs Down To The Nate McLouth Trade
If Braves uberprospect Tommy Hanson had been in this trade, I would've been ambivalent about it. Meaning, ya hate to see Nate leave town, but Hanson becomes your staff ace, so I can see why they did it. Without Hanson---or a similarly lights out prospect---I am absolutely sick about it.
Nate McLouth has just been disrespected in Pittsburgh for the last time. When push came to shove, in the end, whether it was McClatchey and Littlefield or Nutting and Huntingdon, the front office never really believed in him---despite McLouth's undeniable production every single time he's gotten on the field for any length of time. The ONLY way you make this trade is if 1) you have VERY good reason to believe that McLouth WAYYY overachieved last season and will never again approach those numbers so sell high while you can, and 2) you're getting an offer you simply can't refuse.
In my considered opinion, this trade meets NEITHER of those two criteria. While McLouth has definitely been struggling of late---no question there---he is still on pace for another 20-20 season. Even with a .250-ish batting average, his OPS is still over .800, which is still All-Star range for a center fielder, at least in this era where there aren't many CF types that can really hit.
And even in a worst case scenario with McLouth, at minimum he is STILL a better than average, all around, complete ballplayer in the prime of his career at age 27 who was under team control for VERY reasonable dollars. WHY ON EARTH would you sign him to such a team-friendly contract, call him a building block for the near term, and then panic-deal him at the first signs of a slump? Don't forget, either, that Nate had the ribcage injury earlier in the season. I predict he will soon put that behind him and return to his previous form or something very close to it.
Now, we all know that Andrew McCutchen is ready to play in the bigs. No argument there, and I'm sure he will likewise be at least a better than average all around major league CF---just not right away, and it may be two years or longer before he is roughly equivalent to McLouth, if then. I guarantee he will NEVER hit for the kind of power that McLouth has. There are plenty of questions about McCutchen, and I for one think we are a stronger team with both of them here than with McCutchen only. Further, an outfield of Morgan-McCutchen-McLouth would have been far and away the best defensive outfield in all of baseball. Which it would have had to be to make up for mediocre offensive numbers---except from Nate, who of course is now in Atlanta.
A Pirates outfield of Morgan-McCutchen-(Moss/Young/Hinske etc) is not only defensively inferior but also takes a huge hit with the stick and---don't forget---on the basepaths. With Morgan and McLouth, we had just enough team speed to have some options in how we play the game. Without McLouth, we have only Morgan, and he is no McLouth (or even Juan Pierre) with a bat in his hands. Nor, apparently, is this kid we got from the Braves. Where is HE going to play? Oh, that's right: he goes to double-A Altoona, after being traded twice in less than two seasons. Does that generally happen to elite prospects? Anybody remember Andy Marte? Look him up if you don't know who he is, er, was.
And no, McCutchen doesn't count in the basestealing department because despite his great speed, he is NOT a high percentage basestealer. If he couldn't get it done in the minors, what, all of a sudden he's McLouth or better now that he's in the majors? I don't think so. Nor do we have enough leadfooted sluggers that it doesn't matter that we have next to nobody who can steal or even take an extra base to put some pressure on the opposition. Somebody should remind Neil Huntington that this is Pittsburgh, not Cleveland or Boston.
No, too, on the pitchers we got from Atlanta. I'll go out on a limb and say I'm more than a little skeptical that either one of them will ever be anything close to two other hurlers who came from the Braves to the Pirates, guys named Jason Schmidt and Zane Smith.
Nope, no, nyet, negative, forget it, I'm not buying it. Not this time. Bay and Nady, yes. They were going to be much too expensive free agents. McLouth, NO WAY.
TWO HUGE THUMBS DOWN TO THIS TRADE.
(Hey, the Bucs finally roused Will Pellas to step up to the batters box!)
Nate McLouth has just been disrespected in Pittsburgh for the last time. When push came to shove, in the end, whether it was McClatchey and Littlefield or Nutting and Huntingdon, the front office never really believed in him---despite McLouth's undeniable production every single time he's gotten on the field for any length of time. The ONLY way you make this trade is if 1) you have VERY good reason to believe that McLouth WAYYY overachieved last season and will never again approach those numbers so sell high while you can, and 2) you're getting an offer you simply can't refuse.
In my considered opinion, this trade meets NEITHER of those two criteria. While McLouth has definitely been struggling of late---no question there---he is still on pace for another 20-20 season. Even with a .250-ish batting average, his OPS is still over .800, which is still All-Star range for a center fielder, at least in this era where there aren't many CF types that can really hit.
And even in a worst case scenario with McLouth, at minimum he is STILL a better than average, all around, complete ballplayer in the prime of his career at age 27 who was under team control for VERY reasonable dollars. WHY ON EARTH would you sign him to such a team-friendly contract, call him a building block for the near term, and then panic-deal him at the first signs of a slump? Don't forget, either, that Nate had the ribcage injury earlier in the season. I predict he will soon put that behind him and return to his previous form or something very close to it.
Now, we all know that Andrew McCutchen is ready to play in the bigs. No argument there, and I'm sure he will likewise be at least a better than average all around major league CF---just not right away, and it may be two years or longer before he is roughly equivalent to McLouth, if then. I guarantee he will NEVER hit for the kind of power that McLouth has. There are plenty of questions about McCutchen, and I for one think we are a stronger team with both of them here than with McCutchen only. Further, an outfield of Morgan-McCutchen-McLouth would have been far and away the best defensive outfield in all of baseball. Which it would have had to be to make up for mediocre offensive numbers---except from Nate, who of course is now in Atlanta.
A Pirates outfield of Morgan-McCutchen-(Moss/Young/Hinske etc) is not only defensively inferior but also takes a huge hit with the stick and---don't forget---on the basepaths. With Morgan and McLouth, we had just enough team speed to have some options in how we play the game. Without McLouth, we have only Morgan, and he is no McLouth (or even Juan Pierre) with a bat in his hands. Nor, apparently, is this kid we got from the Braves. Where is HE going to play? Oh, that's right: he goes to double-A Altoona, after being traded twice in less than two seasons. Does that generally happen to elite prospects? Anybody remember Andy Marte? Look him up if you don't know who he is, er, was.
And no, McCutchen doesn't count in the basestealing department because despite his great speed, he is NOT a high percentage basestealer. If he couldn't get it done in the minors, what, all of a sudden he's McLouth or better now that he's in the majors? I don't think so. Nor do we have enough leadfooted sluggers that it doesn't matter that we have next to nobody who can steal or even take an extra base to put some pressure on the opposition. Somebody should remind Neil Huntington that this is Pittsburgh, not Cleveland or Boston.
No, too, on the pitchers we got from Atlanta. I'll go out on a limb and say I'm more than a little skeptical that either one of them will ever be anything close to two other hurlers who came from the Braves to the Pirates, guys named Jason Schmidt and Zane Smith.
Nope, no, nyet, negative, forget it, I'm not buying it. Not this time. Bay and Nady, yes. They were going to be much too expensive free agents. McLouth, NO WAY.
TWO HUGE THUMBS DOWN TO THIS TRADE.
(Hey, the Bucs finally roused Will Pellas to step up to the batters box!)
Bolt From The Blue
So the Braves solved their outfield conundrum by prying Nate McLouth from the Bucs. We have to admit we didn't see this coming; not because McLouth was an untouchable - he was bandied about some last year - but because there was so little smoke before this fire hit four alarms. So we assume the deal fell together very quickly.
Gorkys Hernandez, 21, was the key. He was batting .316 for AA Mississippi. Hernandez is not a middle-of-the-order guy, but comes out of the Andrew McCutchen mold; in fact, we guess the Pirates envision him and McCutch as the 1-2 men of the future. He'll join Jose Tabata at Altoona for now.
They also picked up pitchers Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton, neither of whom is a lock to ever show up on a PNC mound. The suits see more to them than meets the eye, although Morton is having a breakout year at AAA Gwinnett.
Morton, 25, is a big right-handed power pitcher, with a 7-2 record, 2.51 ERA, and 55 strikeouts in ten starts covering 64-2/3 innings, and a starter. But he has a history of control issues, and was 4-8 in Atlanta last year, with a 6.15 ERA and 41 walks surrendered in 74-2/3 frames, to go with 48 Ks.
Locke, 21, is a lefty starter with potential but not much in the way of production so far in his young career. He was 1-4 with a 5.52 ERA for A Myrtle Beach, with 43 strikeouts and 26 walks.
Well, with this swap, the Pirate braintrust has assured us that the future is not just around the corner, but still a good distance down the road. And let's hope, though its probably fruitless, that the remaining Pirates don't go into the deep dark funk that marked the aftermath of the Jay Bay trade.
If you think this deal hits the team hard, the fans have to be completely adrift. The Pirates are being very Darwinian in their moves, and risk losing whatever fan support they have. We can already hear the cries of "salary dump" around the water coolers. Who's going to be the face of the team to the paying public now - Sauerkraut Saul?
And now the Andrew McCutchen era starts. They'll plug him in with Nyjer Morgan in the OF right away, though whether in center or left is yet to be seen; this afternoon's lineup will tell us that.
All we know is that the broom continues in Pittsburgh, and there's no telling where it will stop.
Gorkys Hernandez, 21, was the key. He was batting .316 for AA Mississippi. Hernandez is not a middle-of-the-order guy, but comes out of the Andrew McCutchen mold; in fact, we guess the Pirates envision him and McCutch as the 1-2 men of the future. He'll join Jose Tabata at Altoona for now.
They also picked up pitchers Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton, neither of whom is a lock to ever show up on a PNC mound. The suits see more to them than meets the eye, although Morton is having a breakout year at AAA Gwinnett.
Morton, 25, is a big right-handed power pitcher, with a 7-2 record, 2.51 ERA, and 55 strikeouts in ten starts covering 64-2/3 innings, and a starter. But he has a history of control issues, and was 4-8 in Atlanta last year, with a 6.15 ERA and 41 walks surrendered in 74-2/3 frames, to go with 48 Ks.
Locke, 21, is a lefty starter with potential but not much in the way of production so far in his young career. He was 1-4 with a 5.52 ERA for A Myrtle Beach, with 43 strikeouts and 26 walks.
Well, with this swap, the Pirate braintrust has assured us that the future is not just around the corner, but still a good distance down the road. And let's hope, though its probably fruitless, that the remaining Pirates don't go into the deep dark funk that marked the aftermath of the Jay Bay trade.
If you think this deal hits the team hard, the fans have to be completely adrift. The Pirates are being very Darwinian in their moves, and risk losing whatever fan support they have. We can already hear the cries of "salary dump" around the water coolers. Who's going to be the face of the team to the paying public now - Sauerkraut Saul?
And now the Andrew McCutchen era starts. They'll plug him in with Nyjer Morgan in the OF right away, though whether in center or left is yet to be seen; this afternoon's lineup will tell us that.
All we know is that the broom continues in Pittsburgh, and there's no telling where it will stop.
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