Will Pellas, my blogging partner in crime, wondered "what's going on here" with the Bucco pitching, his main bone of contention being the Pirates seem happy to develop guys up to AAA and then forget about them. And ya know what - he's got a point worth arguing.
The Bucs went into the off season thin in starting pitching after letting Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens walk. They were, in justice, the bottom end of the rotation, and it looked like Kyle McPherson and Jeff Locke would step in to take their spots, at least until Charlie Morton returned later this summer. And he has to stick; he's out of options once he's finished rehab
That left them Justin Wilson in Indy, and the FO brought in Andy Oliver to bolster the reserves, along with Jeanmar Gomez, all three stronger in potential than performance. It was a staff that could use another vet to solidify the rotation and depth.
Well, they brought in three guys - Karstens found out that you can go home again, Jonathan Sanchez signed a minor league contract, and Francisco Liriano, broken wing and all, finally struck a deal acceptable to him and the pencil pushers.
That leaves Pittsburgh with ten starting pitchers with at least a cup of coffee in the show - AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Francisco Liriano, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jeanmar Gomez and Andrew Oliver. Gerrit Cole and Justin Wilson are waiting to get their call from Indy, with Jameson Taillon, Phil Irwin and a couple of others in the pipeline.
Gomez is the only wanna-be with option problems. But Tom Singer of MLB.com pointed out an unpublicized fact: Sanchez has an opt out clause in his deal that's triggered on March 24th if he's not on the MLB roster. Given that the Pirates would like two lefties and Liriano won't be ready to go when camp breaks, the Bucs will have to decide between Sanchez and Locke, who has an option remaining, for that fifth spot. Sticky, maybe, but neither of those situations are real problems to open the season.
But there's a domino game that's going to be played as the season goes on. Liriano will be back by May; Morton by July, and Cole whenever he shows he ready. So unless there are a rash of bum wings or bad pitching - which, given past history, may occur - the Pirates will have some real shuffling, and all possibly before the All Star break.
If they get through the year with their pitching intact, 2014 will be a real poser. Rodriguez and Liriano, depending on how the year goes, may vest next season. AJ will be a free agent, and a question mark to return. Even if he repeats his 2012 year, he'll be 37 and coming off a $16.5M deal that those nice New York Yankees helped to pay; that won't be so next season. But he would be a handy and wildly popular head to keep around to tutor Cole and presumably Taillon. J-Mac and Morton will be back and under control, though without options.
Those options will come into play big-time in 2014. Locke, McPherson, and Oliver will be out of them, unless one of them sticks on the 25-man for the entire season. So the FO has put itself in a bit of a pickle for not only this year, but next. McPherson, Wilson and Oliver could use a little Indy time; Locke has about done all you can at AAA. But the Pirates have built a little depth that it's unwilling to tap at the big league level, and it's probably not fair to put the upper level farm guys in a make-or-break spot at camp next season. It puts undue pressure on the evaluation process, too.
It may work itself out; performance, injuries and deals have a way of flattening the curve. Pitching is the coin of the realm, and the Pirates are trying to pay their share of the freight. And of course, there's no guarantee that that sheer numbers will translate into MLB depth.
But to us, it seems like the FO is still wavering on a plan; they just can't seem to resist toying with flawed but upside guys. They're stuck in the limbo of building a future and winning today. Maybe the way the roster is now constructed, that's understandable. They are a couple bricks shy of a load unless everything breaks their way.
But sooner or later they're going to have to strike a happy medium and make a commitment to the minor league system, per their blueprint. They could start by showing a little confidence in the guys they have rather than trawling for help that may in the long run stifle the teams' development rather than foster it.
Showing posts with label pirate pitching. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pirate pitching. Show all posts
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Monday, July 26, 2010
The Hill To Climb
Hey, the suits thought they had the starting pitching figured out in 2010. Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, Kevin Hart, Paul Maholm and Zach Duke would make up a young but promising rotation, with Donnie Veal and Brad Lincoln tucked away at Indy, and Tim Alderson at Altoona. Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen were MLB ready guys if a quick call-up or spot start was needed during the long grind.
Everything seemed to be in order. But as that crafty vet, Scotsman Robert Burns noted "The best laid plans of mice and men go oft' astray." And boy, astray they went.
First, Hart couldn't beat McCutchen out of camp. Ohlie got hurt in early April; he wouldn't return until May 11th. McCutchen got bombed as a starter; so did Morton. Hart had labrum surgery. Veal had Tommy John surgery. Jose Ascanio, a potential starter, still hasn't pitched this year after shoulder surgery at the end of last season.
The dominoes started falling. Karstens become more than a long relief/spot starter; he rejoined the rotation. Lincoln was called up and sent back down. Brian Burres, Chris Jakubauskas and Dana Eveland all got starts. Duke went on the DL.
Alderson was demoted a level, and is still getting creamed as the Pirates try to defunk his motion. And as of today, the Pirate brass are consulting their ouija board for a fifth starter. Aye carumba!
The starters have an ERA of 5.42 and an 18-52 record. And next year doesn't promise to get much better.
Veal and Hart will be of no help; it will be the summer before they get to throw in a game again. Lincoln may be ready in 2011, if he's absorbed his lessons - keep the ball down, avoid the middle of the plate, and manage a game to keep out of the big inning. That's a lot of schooling.
Alderson, Bryan Morris, and Jeff Locke won't impact the MLB staff next year, if ever. Rudy Owens should be going to Indy soon; he has a puncher's chance of making the 2011 rotation at best. And all the young turks are toiling at the lower levels of the system. It'll be 2013 before any of them even are a thought to take the hill at PNC.
Ohlie, Duke and Maholm will form the backbone of the 2011 staff. Ohlendorf will be entering his first arbitration year, Duke his third (he's making $4.3M in 2010), and Maholm will be in the final year of his contract, with a 2012 team option.
Morton returning to MLB caliber is key for Pittsburgh. He doesn't hit arbitration until 2012, but this season was his last option year, so it's play him or lose him in 2011. The last starter? It's a Chinese menu; pick among Karstens, Sean Gallagher, McCutchen, and Lincoln.
So we think the 2011 rotation will be Maholm-Ohlendorf-Duke-Morton-Lincoln. Kinda like this year's staff, hey?
The system isn't devoid of arms, but between visits to the chop shop and drafts that have emphasized high school players, the timeline for in-house help is down the road.
Most MLB clubs leave room for a pitching pick-up when the free agents hit the market, and the Pirates should be looking that way. One veteran guy that's above-average - not elite; those contracts are beyond Pittsburgh's means - is something this team needs badly, a Jon Garland type of guy.
But a quick peek at the FA list for 2011 isn't promising; it features a lot of arms of the quality Pittsburgh already possesses.
So it looks like more of the same in 2011; let's hope the staff is a year wiser from this year's experiences - and the lower levels don't blow out as many arms.
Everything seemed to be in order. But as that crafty vet, Scotsman Robert Burns noted "The best laid plans of mice and men go oft' astray." And boy, astray they went.
First, Hart couldn't beat McCutchen out of camp. Ohlie got hurt in early April; he wouldn't return until May 11th. McCutchen got bombed as a starter; so did Morton. Hart had labrum surgery. Veal had Tommy John surgery. Jose Ascanio, a potential starter, still hasn't pitched this year after shoulder surgery at the end of last season.
The dominoes started falling. Karstens become more than a long relief/spot starter; he rejoined the rotation. Lincoln was called up and sent back down. Brian Burres, Chris Jakubauskas and Dana Eveland all got starts. Duke went on the DL.
Alderson was demoted a level, and is still getting creamed as the Pirates try to defunk his motion. And as of today, the Pirate brass are consulting their ouija board for a fifth starter. Aye carumba!
The starters have an ERA of 5.42 and an 18-52 record. And next year doesn't promise to get much better.
Veal and Hart will be of no help; it will be the summer before they get to throw in a game again. Lincoln may be ready in 2011, if he's absorbed his lessons - keep the ball down, avoid the middle of the plate, and manage a game to keep out of the big inning. That's a lot of schooling.
Alderson, Bryan Morris, and Jeff Locke won't impact the MLB staff next year, if ever. Rudy Owens should be going to Indy soon; he has a puncher's chance of making the 2011 rotation at best. And all the young turks are toiling at the lower levels of the system. It'll be 2013 before any of them even are a thought to take the hill at PNC.
Ohlie, Duke and Maholm will form the backbone of the 2011 staff. Ohlendorf will be entering his first arbitration year, Duke his third (he's making $4.3M in 2010), and Maholm will be in the final year of his contract, with a 2012 team option.
Morton returning to MLB caliber is key for Pittsburgh. He doesn't hit arbitration until 2012, but this season was his last option year, so it's play him or lose him in 2011. The last starter? It's a Chinese menu; pick among Karstens, Sean Gallagher, McCutchen, and Lincoln.
So we think the 2011 rotation will be Maholm-Ohlendorf-Duke-Morton-Lincoln. Kinda like this year's staff, hey?
The system isn't devoid of arms, but between visits to the chop shop and drafts that have emphasized high school players, the timeline for in-house help is down the road.
Most MLB clubs leave room for a pitching pick-up when the free agents hit the market, and the Pirates should be looking that way. One veteran guy that's above-average - not elite; those contracts are beyond Pittsburgh's means - is something this team needs badly, a Jon Garland type of guy.
But a quick peek at the FA list for 2011 isn't promising; it features a lot of arms of the quality Pittsburgh already possesses.
So it looks like more of the same in 2011; let's hope the staff is a year wiser from this year's experiences - and the lower levels don't blow out as many arms.
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