Working Overtime

Ya know, with all the talk of regression and such, it seemed like the Sabermetric spooks had put the hex on Pirate pitching through science. But the eyeball guys prefer Occam's Razor to weighted averages; they look at simple fatigue. A half dozen Buc arms, split between the pen and rotation, have pitched more times for more innings than ever before in their careers.

For the starters, vets Paul Maholm and Kevin Correia had logged plenty of innings in their day; Maholm has never thrown fewer than 176 frames and KC has topped out at 198, so they should be able to handle the load. They've been there and done that. 

But for James McDonald, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Karstens, it's a new world. J-Mac has never tossed more than 71-2/3 big league innings and he's at 133 now. Morton threw a career high 97 innings last year; he's at 133-2/3 today. And Jeff Karstens' high mark was 122-2/3 frames; he's gone 141-1/3 so far. Each should have another 45 innings or so of work remaining to finish out 2011, so they're all looking at roughly 180 frames.

The number of starts made are also career highs for the trio: McDonald has made 24 starts; the most he made prior to this year was 19. Morton has started 22 times; his high was 18 in 2008. Karstens has begun 22 games; his previous best was 19  last season. And remember that each guy could have eight more starts before the off season begins. They're on track to approach 30 outings each before the year has run its course.

None has a minor league background to lean on. Morton's top workload was 124 innings on the farm, J-Mac's 140, and Karstens hasn't work 100 minor league innings since 2006.

It's a big jump in starts and innings for the threesome, with both mental and physical adjustments to be made. The good news is that the experience should bode well for the future; the bad news is that this isn't the future.

With Evan Meek's arm woes, the back end of the bullpen has been frazzled; that's why the FO was looking for a set up man at the the trade deadline. Hanny is OK; he's been in about 70 games each year since 2008, and his innings and appearances are well in line with his past history. 

But his three bridge amigos, Chris Resop, Jose Veras, and Daniel McCutchen, have their arms dragging. 

The most appearances Resop had made in the majors were 22 and the most innings he's logged were 21-1/3 for Florida in 2006; he's at 60 outings with 54-2/3 innings now. Veras has peaked at 60 outings (in 2008 for the Yankees) and 57-1/3 innings; he's racked up 63 appearances and 57-1/3 frames as of today. D-Mac, in his first full season from the pen, had career highs of 28 games and 67-2/3 innings; he's at 55 and 65-1/3 now. Add another 15 appearances and innings to the total to carry them through 2011.

It's especially a learning experience for Resop and McCutchen. Veras knows the drill and has been around the block as a fireman after six seasons, but the other two are converted starters. Resop became full time as a reliever just last August, and this is D-Mac's first season without being used as a spot starter. The pair's minor league time doesn't help in the transition as they spent it in the rotation.

With the relievers, the mental and physical challenge may be even greater than the starters. They're up and down a zillion times in the pen, and when they do get the ball, more often than not guys are already dancing on base. More than any position, the pen guys have to learn to grind it out through the dog days.

So hey, give the Sabermetric guys their due; their formulas predicted a drop-off, and they got it. But the KISS gang could see it coming, too, as the innings piled up. As we said, it's not necessarily a bad thing to make the guys earn their money and the experience should pay off down the road. None of the stats are approaching a burn-out situation, but there are a lot of guys stretching it out big time for the first time this year.

But for now, six guys are running on fumes and have to figure out to stoke the engines for the long haul, not only for this season but for their careers.

Pitch and Catch

OK, time to take a look at the Bucs, surprisingly still hangin' around as Independence Day looms. And why? We can explain it in three words - pitching, pitching, pitching.

But it's not like the staff has suddenly blossomed, although Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens and Hanny have been quite pleasant surprises. Very few of us, GW included, foresaw this much improvement. There are a combination of ingredients stirred together that led to the staff's strong first half performance.

It's been quite a storyline. The ERA has been sliced from 5.00 in 2010 to 3.50 this season, and run-and-a-half improvements are unheard of. But a closer look at the xFIP - Fielding Independent Pitching - shows a much more subtle improvement, from 4.35 last year to 3.98 in 2011. So why have this year's guys thrown better than their stat projections while last year's staff underperformed so badly? 

First, the bar was raised a bit by Clint Hurdle. He let it be known that seven innings was what he wanted from his starters, and was willing to back it up by keeping guys in the game even when they were running low on gas. The Buc starters are going 6 frames per start now; it was 5-1/3 innings in 2010. Doesn't sound like much? How about 50+ innings per year that the bullpen doesn't have to eat.

And he's worked the bullpen beautifully so far. He's kept the innings down, mixing and matching his young relief corps, and managed the set-up by committee approach after Evan Meek's shoulder woes as well as any skipper could.

Next, Ray Searage restored a collaborative relationship with the pitchers, communicating well and developing game plans based on his guys' strengths and knowledge, not the opposing batters' weaknesses and computer sims. He also tweaks as well as any other competent MLB pitching coach; that should be a given at this level. Together, they toughened up the staff mentally and gave them a sense of ownership in the results.

Confidence, of course, is a key factor, and the coaches have helped grow that in the staff. So far they've nursed brief meltdowns professionally and gotten guys back on track - think Chris Resop and Jose Veras - without throwing them under the bus or panicking. When arms get rubbery, they're rested, ala Charlie Morton or the three-days-and-sit bullpen rule. There's no more "pitching through a dead arm period" bull being served.

All the coddling in the world doesn't help if the the pitchers can't get guys out. And for the Pirate staff, that's really a function of the team behind them rather than their ability to miss bats. The Pirates average 6.14 K's per nine innings; only two teams rack up less. And that's even fewer than last year's 6.54 K's/nine. Walks show the same way. The current staff has shown modestly more control, issuing 3.23 walks per nine compared to 3.43 in 2010, certainly not a difference-making gap.

But a look at the BABIP - batting average of balls in play - tells the story. This year, opponents that put the ball between the white lines hit for a .286 average; last year it was .311. Add in the strand rate of 75% this season as opposed to 67%, and it's easy to see how the runs against have plummeted from 5.35 per game last year to 3.92 this year. That run a game makes a world of difference in the wins-losses column.

And credit for that has to go to the defense, particularly McCutch and Ronny Cedeno. Andrew McCutchen was statistically slandered by the odd, "no triples" outfield defense the Bucs played last year. His UZR 150 (Ultimate Zone Ratings place a run value on a player's defensive play; the 150 option evens out the difference in games played) was -12.9. Set up in a more traditional alignment this season, it's up to +13.4, scatter-gun arm not withstanding.

(Interestingly, Jose Tabata's UZR 150 went from +9.6 to -5.1, even though to the eye he's playing LF equally as well as he did last year. That rating exhibits why stats are useful little buggers, but often need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. However, together they show +12.1 runs saved over last year's play, and that's the number that counts.)

Cedeno's problems with the stick are well documented, but this year he's been consistent with the mitt. His UZR 150 is +8.1; it was -4.0 in 2011. Neil Walker is still a work in progress, but has improved his rating from a dismal -17.1 in 2010 to a much more acceptable -3.9 now.

So the middle, where all good D starts, has really tightened up for Pittsburgh this year. Its 2011 UZR 150 is 17.6; it was -34 in 2010, and that's 52 saved runs worth of improvement. In essence, the team's leather has gone from leaking runs to preventing them by making more plays, as shown by the BABIP and strand rates, and the staff is the beneficiary.

Hey, we tip our hats to Hanrahan, Karstens and Morton for the surprisingly good performances they've delivered. We applaud Hurdle and Searage for their mature handling of the pitchers. But mostly we give credit where credit is due, to a strong defense behind a pitch-to-contact staff.

Bring the Heat...

Hey, the front office mantra since 2008 has been power arms. So we thought we'd check out Fangraphs, who get their data from Baseball Info Solutions, and see how much heat the current Bucco hurlers bring and how often.

Starters:

• James McDonald - 92 MPH (70% fastballs)
• Ross Ohlendorf - 92 MPH (71% fastballs)
• Charlie Morton - 92 MPH (80% fastballs)
• Brad Lincoln* - 92 MPH (65% fastballs)
• Kevin Correia - 90 MPH (49% fastballs)
• Jeff Karstens - 89 MPH (56% fastballs)
• Paul Maholm - 88 MPH (56% fastballs)
• Brian Burres* - 88 MPH (60% fastballs)

* - 2010 figures

No true flamethrowers in the lot, although with the exception of J-Mac and Lincoln, most of the staff throws sinkers or two seamers, which cuts the velocity down a tick or three but gets balls pounded into the ground.

Bullpen:

Joel Hanrahan - 97 MPH (84% fastballs)

Tim Wood - 95 MPH (70% fastballs)

Jose Veras - 94 MPH (51% fastballs)

Chris Resop - 93 MPH (75% fastballs)

Evan Meek - 93 MPH (48% fastballs)

Mike Crotta - 93 MPH (86% fastballs)

Tony Watson - 92 MPH (72% fastballs)

Dan Moskos - 92 MPH (60% fastballs)

Daniel McCutchen - 91 MPH (53% fastballs)

Joe Beimel - 86 MPH (62% fastballs)

These guys mostly rear back and let loose; Crotta, Watson and Beimel use sinkers/two-seamers. And it's easy to see how the Pirate FO was taken by Hanny when they sent Sean Burnett to the Nats. They knew he had an elite arm if he could sharpen his command. His slider is all that more effective in 2011 because of how often he throws the ol' number one. In prior years, he threw the slider over 30% of the time; this year, just 16%, and he's completely lost the change. That's in keeping with the Ray Searage credo to go with your strength. It may cost you some K's, but it sure helps to rack up those saves.

Veras goes the opposite way; he combines a good fastball with a 79 MPH curve. When he has the pair of them clicking, he's nasty. When the hook doesn't find the plate is when he has problems.

Meek was throwing a lot of cutters - 28% this season - and whether that was deliberate or because of his shoulder problems is hard to tell. In 2010, the ratio was 59%/14% FBs to cutters.

So the Bucs haven't become the heat-seekers on the mound that the FO envisioned in 2008 quite yet, although the bullpen has a few guys that can bring it. But we expect you'll see a difference in two or three more seasons, when the high school kids they drafted and Gerritt Cole percolate through the system and reach PNC Park.

The Pen To The Rescue

The Pirates' bullpen has allowed one run in 19 innings during the first four games of the current homestand. Their collective ERA is 3.29, tenth in MLB. That's pretty nice performance from a group whose sole purpose in life, as Clint Hurdle has said, is "to get the ball to Joel Hanrahan."

Hanny has been lights out. His ERA is 1.27, his WHIP is 0.93, and he's 21-for-21 in the save department; his fastball/slider combo has been devastating. It was a matter of debate when the suits chose him to close in the spring without any competition; they look like Nostradamus now. If he's not in the All-Star game, shame on baseball. But there's been many a twist and turn with the guys behind him.

Evan Meek, Joe Beimel and Mike Crotta all ended up on the DL and Jeff Karstens was thrown into the rotation. So much for April planning; only Hanny, Jose Veras and Chris Resop remain from the opening day roster. JV and CR have had spells where they've been banged around, but their overall lines have been outstanding. 

Veras has appeared in 38 games, held 14, finished five and saved one. His ERA is 2.94, and he has a WHIP of 1.129 with 38 K's in 33-2/3 innings. Resop has been in 36 games and has a 3.67 ERA, bloated by a poor but thankfully short period of inconsistency, with a WHIP of 1.223. He's got nine holds to his credit this season.

But you gotta love the work of D-Mac, Tony Watson, Dan Moskos and Tim Woods as the cavalry charging to the rescue so far this season. 

Daniel McCutchen took over Karstens' spot seamlessly, and has the added advantage of being useful in later, higher-leverage situations. He's got a 2.37 ERA in 30 games, and covered 37 innings with a 1.211 WHIP. Watson (1.04 ERA), Moskos (2.70 ERA) and Woods (4.05 ERA) have all been used to mix-and-match, and Clint Hurdle isn't afraid to toss them on the hill when the game is on the line.

Crotta (9.28 ERA) and Beimel (5.40 ERA) have to worry about whether or not they'll be a spot open for them when they return. And that's a good problem to have.

The young righty, Crotta, will probably be optioned to Indy when he returns to action. Our guess is that if Beimel returns in time, the FO would like to get him on the hill so he's a veteran lefty chip in play before the trade deadline. 

In years past, Resop and Veras would be shopped around. But with Meek's injury - he's still not throwing - and the Buccos' flirtation with a winning record, they may hang around this season unless it falls apart in the next few weeks or someone wants to overpay.

Hey, the Pirate FO has always thought that a bullpen was the easiest part of the team to build, and judging by the past two seasons, they may be onto something.

And give Hurdle and Ray Searage props, too. The skipper may run and bunt like a madman, but he's handled the pen in textbook fashion, keeping the arms fresh. Searage is the anti-Joe Kerrigan, communicating with his guys and allowing them to pitch to their strengths rather than to an opponent's weakness.

So far, so good.

Pitcher Fatigue Factor

The Bucs are citing fatigue as a possible problem for Charlie Morton. He's work 86 innings so far, putting him on pace for a 190 inning season after pitching 160 innings last year between Pittsburgh and Indy, about the same workload he had in 2008-09. He's on track for the same number of starts, projected at 31, as his 2010 total. The fact that he's working with totally remade mechanics weighs in the mix, too. They're considering skipping a start to give his arm a rest.

The other starters' inning projections: Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm are both on track for 210 inning seasons. Correia only tossed 145 innings in 2010; Maholm has always been a workhorse. Jeff Karstens is working toward a 175 inning year; he threw 146 frames last year. James McDonald is projected to pitch 165 innings, which is about equivalent to 2010's mark, but it's his first year as a starter after being a swingman at LA. So all the guys save PM could face post All-Star burnout because of their increased outings in the first half of 2011, and the Buc management has always been inning and pitch count conscious.

Perhaps Brad Lincoln could get a spot start to give the staff a blow, or maybe the FO will revisit the six man rotation idea they briefly considered last season to keep the workload down.

It's a good problem to have in that the pitchers have all added an inning to their usual outing, helped by strong D, Ray Searage's leadership, and Clint Hurdle's insistence they raise the bar a bit and get into the seventh inning.

But the Indy guys, widely expected to be MLB ready by the All-Star break if not sooner, have all hit stumbling blocks on the farm; only Brad Lincoln has come around with Brian Burres as an insurance policy. When Ohlie comes back, he'll almost certainly be relegated to the bullpen to stretch out. So there's not a lot of help on the horizon, and that could effect the rotation's late summer performances.

And Your 2011 Rotation *Ta Da*

Clint Hurdle announced that Kevin Correia will start Opening Day, followed by Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton and James McDonald.

Correia was a bit of a surprise to start over Maholm, but it does put PM in position to start the home opener on April 7th against the Rockies. The only alteration may be a Jeff Karstens/Brian Burres spot start in J-Mac's spot if he's not ready to roll by the first week of April.

Pirate Starters 2011

Make no mistake - while there are holes to fill among the position players, improvement in the Bucco product will rest squarely on the shoulders of the starting rotation. They bombed last year, winning just 34 games and cobbling together a 5.27 ERA.

The Pirates have gathered a small posse of pitchers in camp to try to stabilize things until a wave of good young arms rises to the top. By and large, we expect them to hold back their young pitchers for another season for developmental reasons.

After Brad Lincoln, Charlie Morton, Kevin Hart and Daniel McCutchen were spanked in 2010, the suits may have decided that fast-tracking guys is not the way to go.

The tea leaves say that J-Mac, Ohlie, Paul Maholm and Kevin Correia are in, and there's a wide-open competition for the fifth spot, which looks a lot like a shoot-out between Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen, with Brad Lincoln as a dark horse.

McDonald, 26, arrived at the deadline and went 4-5/3.52 in 11 starts in August and September. He has to work past his reliever's mentality of striking out every batter he faces and manage his pitch counts better, but he may end up the best deal of the Huntington era after the Yankee swap that netted Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens.

Ohlendorf, 28, and Correia, 30, hope to have bounce-back years. Both had strong 2009 seasons and hope that 2010 was an anomaly when they combined for 11 wins. Maholm, 28, is the Pirates war horse and highest paid pitcher, but hasn't hit double-digit wins since 2007. And those are the guys that are locks.

Morton, 27, and Lincoln, 25, are looking for redemption after miserable 2010 performances, and Olsen, 26, was added to provide some veteran competition for that final spot.

Jeff Karstens, 28, and Brian Burres, 29, both stuck their fingers in the leaking dike last year with reasonable results, but appear to be on the outside looking in. They may compete for a long spot in the pen, or start the year as veteran insurance at Indy.

To add to the equation, Morton, Hart and Karstens are all out of options and have to get through waivers if left off the 25-man roster, although Hart may start the season on the DL. Lincoln still has an option remaining.

Rudy Owens and Bryan Morris are projected to move up to Indy. The betting line is that they'll be joined in the rotation by Lincoln, Sean Gallagher, and maybe Olsen, who is signed but still has two options remaining, or Burres, or Fernando Nieve or Cesar Valdez. Lots of choices on the menu.

Mike Crotta, Kyle McPherson and Tony Watson, all protected on the 40-man roster, have to get some innings in, too, as does Donnie Veal. They too should be in Indy this coming season, but may land in the bullpen.

That leaves Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, Aaron Thompson, Aaron Pribanic, Brian Leach, Brett Lorin and Tim Alderson battling for innings in Altoona. All have some aspect of their game to work on; spending a little more time in the slow lane might be a blessing in disguise. But they all have their eyes aimed at Indy and beyond, with Wilson closest to taking the step.

They have to keep moving; Jameson Taillon, Luis Heredia, Stetson Allie, Colton Cain and Zach Von Rosenberg lead a strong crew of young arms in the lower levels waiting to climb the organizational ladder.

The Pirates are starting to build some depth in their pitching. With the sheer numbers and guys that will have to be added to the 40-man roster, we'd be surprised if the FO didn't begin packaging some arms and dealing them for organizational needs, just like every strong organization in baseball.

Until then, it's quite a crowd this year, unlike most seasons. We're hoping the Pirate evaluators can make the numbers game a good problem to have.

Bucs Still Looking For A Few Good Arms

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweets that the Pirates are one of seven teams still in the Jeff Francis sweepstakes.

As we've noted before, the Pirates already have a small posse of pitchers on hand. We're wondering if they're planning to hold back their young pitchers for another season for developmental reasons.

It's just a guess, but after Brad Lincoln, Charlie Morton, Kevin Hart and Daniel McCutchen were spanked in 2010, the suits may have decided that fast-tracking guys is not the way to go.

Our read so far is that J-Mac, Ohlie, Paul Maholm and Kevin Correia are in, and there's a wide-open competition for the fifth spot, which looks a lot like a shoot-out between Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen.

Rudy Owens is the best lock to move up to Indy. The betting line is that he'll be joined in the rotation by Lincoln, Sean Gallagher, Cesar Valdez and maybe Olsen, who is signed but still has two options remaining, or Brian Burres, or Fernando Nieve. Danny Moskos and Ramon Aguero should open for the Tribe in the pen.

Mike Crotta, Kyle McPherson and Tony Watson, all protected on the 40-man roster, have to get some innings in, too, as does Donnie Veal. They too should be in Indy this coming season.

That leaves Jeff Locke, Bryan Morris, Justin Wilson, Aaron Thompson and Aaron Pribanic/Brian Leach toiling for Altoona. All have some aspect of their game to work on; spending a little more time in the slow lane might be a blessing in disguise. But their arrival at Indianapolis is inevitable, even if the time table is delayed by a few weeks or months.

To add to the equation, Morton, Hart, Jose Ascanio and Jeff Karstens are all out of options and have to get through waivers if left off the 25-man roster. And with Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, and Chris Resop in as bullpen locks, we're sure Clint Hurdle with be looking for a couple of southpaws.

We don't think they plan to go into the year with just Moskos, Justin Thomas, and maybe Watson as the sum of all their left-handed depth; rest assured that they'll find a lefty or two. That being the case, the out-of-option RHPs can't all be stockpiled in the outfield (although that may be Ascanio and Karsten's ultimate destination).

Quite a crowd this year, unlike most seasons. And with a couple of months before camp, there still may be some roster shuffling, especially in the bullpen. We're hoping the Pirate evaluators can make the numbers game a good problem to have this season.

Whoops, There Goes Another Lefty...

The Toronto Blue Jays claimed Wil Ledezma today, as the Bucco bullpen options from the left side continue to shrink.

Ledezma, who will be 30 in a couple of weeks, who was signed to a split $700K/$300K deal, has pitched for six teams in an eight year career, with a lifetime line of 15-25 with a 5.26 ERA and 277 K in 390-1/3 innings.

This leaves the Pirates with Danny Moskos and Tony Watson on the 40-man roster as LH relievers. Justin Thomas and Donnie Veal are minor-league roster options.

Lefties remaining unsigned in free agency are Joe Beimel, Tim Byrdak, Randy Flores, Brian Fuentes, Mark Hendrickson, Ron Mahay, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, Scott Schoeneweis, Bobby Seay and Taylor Tankersley. Not a particularly overwhelming list with a couple of exceptions, but expect one or two to land in our fair city.

2011 Rotation: A Numbers Game

Brian Burres, Kevin Correia, Jeff Karstens, Brad Lincoln, Paul Maholm, Daniel McCutchen, James McDonald, Charlie Morton, Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Olsen.

Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, Donnie Veal, Sean Gallagher, Cesar Valdez.

Rudy Owens, Justin Wilson, Jeff Locke, Bryan Morris.

What do these guys have in common? They all may get a chance to be a starting pitcher for your Pittsburgh Pirates in 2011.

Hey, the FO must have learned by now that there is security in numbers when it comes to pitching. Last year, the rotation was set going into camp with Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton and Kevin Hart. Remember how that worked out?

Morton and his replacement, McCutchen, got bombed; Hart went to the chop shop after being sent down, Ohlie got hurt and it took Jeff Karstens and Brian Burres to more or less come to the rescue, as guys like Dana Eveland and Hayden Penn came and went at a dizzying pace.

In 2009, they started with Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny. That staff broke up pretty quickly, too.

Anyway, the Pirates have insurance policies all over this season; they probably have the greatest collection of back-end pitchers in MLB history. There are just two problems: first, J-Mac, Ohlie, and maybe Maholm are the only guys with mid-rotation upside. There is no ace or even #2 arm on the staff right now, and not too darn many #3's, for that matter. So talent is one question.

Problem number two: only five guys can start in Pittsburgh, and one or two others may take up bullpen spots. So that leaves a whole mob of hurlers looking for some work at Indy. Younger pitchers like Owens, Wilson and Morris have to move up, and it's not likely that the Tribe will go to a ten-man rotation to accommodate them all.

To further acerbate the numbers game, Morton, Hart, Ascanio and Karstens are out of options. So are Gallagher and Burres, but the Bucs have them inked to minor-league deals, so at least they're accounted for. The others can be lost if they don't make the cut out of camp.

The Pirates have learned a painful lesson about pitching depth. To their credit, they have addressed it short-term by loading up with guys they can plug in if the situation calls for it, unlike years past. But now, the pressure is on at Indy.

The Pirate evaluators have to determine who they need for big-league insurance while not creating a log jam for the pitchers coming up through the system, and there are quite a few hurlers between Bradenton and Altoona who should be advancing in the system.

Some guys could be moved to the bullpen, like McCutchen, Ascanio, or Karstens, but it will be an interesting challenge for the Pirate brass this year, striking a balance of support for the MLB team and developing the future arms.