OK - the big guys at Indy, Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson and Kyle McPherson - have all been up and sent back so quickly that they could have used a bus transfer for the trip. They got all of four appearances in the show this year, without giving up a run. OK, we get it - they're starters; only Wilson has any bullpen experience, and he can toss a no-no one night and not zing a strike the next outing.
The bullpen guys that have been doing so well in AAA, in the main Bryan Morris and Chris Leroux, are treading water while Chad Qualls and Daniel McCutchen are holding down big league spots. What could be the Bucco logic behind keeping the kids down for grizzled but up-and-down vets?
There's a couple of dynamics involved here. Clint Hurdle has a heavy hand in the roster makeup, being much more involved with personnel decisions than the recent Bucco skippers have been. And it sure looks like he likes his gang to have been around the block (preferably at Colorado). The Pirates were one of the last three teams to have a minor league pitcher make his big league debut in 2012.
You can see that experience inclination in play not only with the pitching, but on the bench. If Jose Tabata and Alex Presley hadn't self destructed, bet the ranch that Starling Marte would still be at Indy. Ditto for Jordy Mercer, who needed Yamaico Navarro to dip under the Mendoza line to get a look.
We also think that the FO is torn between its big plan and making moves on the fly; flexibility and Plan Bs never seemed to be a strong point of the boss men. No matter what they may claim, they didn't really figure on 2012 being a contending year. Their player development schedule was focused on the window opening up in 2014, with next season being the transitional campaign. With Eric Bedard and Kevin Correia coming off the books, that was the year the pitching staff was supposed to take on a younger look.
Now with AJ, J-Mick, Jeff Karstens and Wandy all due back, there's only one spot opening up in 2013. And it sure doesn't look like anyone is gonna get much of an audition until spring training short of injury or the wheels falling off in the last 40 games.
A third factor that combines the first two is that Indy is in a pennant race and almost assured a playoff run. This combines the FO's desire to grow players by having them perform during a stretch run and under playoff pressure, but without facing the hot glare of the MLB limelight.
A final hurdle that the young arms faced was that the Pirate staff, starters and bullpen, were not only performing well into July, but had a remarkable streak of getting by without major injury. Karstens returned from his shoulder injury just about in time to take Charlie Morton's place when his hip gave out, so there wasn't a beat skipped that Brad Lincoln couldn't fill. The result was that there was no opportunity for anyone to make an early impression.
Having said all that, we're not about to be apologists for the current makeup of the pitching staff. The best twelve arms in the organization should be in Pittsburgh now even if it bruises a veteran's ego, diminishes Indy's playoff chances or requires a small leap of faith by management. And that's not the case now, especially in the bullpen and probably with the rotation, too.
Hey, there are only ten days left until September call ups. But it's not as if the Pirates are roaring into the stretch run, and as we've seen this year, the offense is a roller coaster; pitching is what keeps a team hangin' around. We hope the Pirate brass doesn't leave the team on the field short handed during the most exciting time in Pirate baseball in twenty years, but is willing to step up as boldly as the players have and fire all the bullets they have.
Showing posts with label pirate pitching 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pirate pitching 2012. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Wilson To Indy Pen As Bucs Position Pitchers For Stretch Run
It wasn't really earthshattering stuff, but Clint Hurdle told the media before the game that Justin Wilson, who was part of Indianapolis' rotation, was being sent to the pen. The same thing happened last year and for the same reason - Wilson is a power arm with nice stuff, but just can't seem to get the rock over the dish.
He's averaging almost 5 walks/9 innings this year, just like last season. But this move doesn't seem so much a demotion as an opportunity for him to become a back-ender from the pen, or at least a LOOGY, something the Pirates could use about now with Brad Lincoln traded and Tony Watson as the only southpaw reliever.
As a starter, he was doing OK with all his peripheral stuff except for control. In 23 starts, he's 8-5/4.14 in 117-1/3 frames. Wilson has surrendered just 83 hits with a opponent BA of .197. He’s fanned 121 hitters (9.3/nine innings) but walked 63 (4.8/nine innings).
In 2011, Wilson had the same situation and worked nine games from the pen. The most noticeable difference was that his gas went from the low to the upper nineties, touching 99. We saw the same kind of velocity spike from Lincoln when he was able to let it all hang out as a reliever instead of pacing himself as a starter.
Wilson, who will turn 25 next week, was a fifth rounder out of Fresno State in 2008, but signed late after a strong CWS run. Maybe the bullpen will end up his niche, though he still holds more value as a starter. Farm director Kyle Stark told Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review that moving Wilson to bullpen is a "short-term ML depth move as opposed to what Justin Wilson can be long-term."
But at any rate, it shows the Pirates are ready to address any pitching needs internally if push comes to shove. RHP Chris Leroux (1-0/2.27), who has a sub-one ERA in his last three outings, will take Wilson's spot in the rotation, and he'll be stretched out if Pittsburgh needs a long man/spot starter in the coming weeks.
They also have righty Bryan Morris stashed at Indy if they're looking for a set-up guy. He's 2-2/2.57 with five saves and has punched out 63 batters in 67-1/3 frames. LHP pitcher Doug Slaten is available, too. He's been killing at Indy (3-1/1.25) and has big league experience as a middle man, though in a cup of coffee in Pittsburgh earlier this year he had problems with nibbling at the edges too much, walking eight in 13 IP.
Beside Leroux, the FO also has LHP Jeff Locke on the back burner if the call for another starter goes up. he's 9-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.224 WHIP, averaging 8 K and 3 BB per nine innings.
The Bucs tried to set their rotation at the deadline by grabbing the top mid-tier guy, Wandy Rodriguez, but didn't land any bullpen help except for middle man Chad Qualls. Now it appears that they're getting their minor league ducks in line for the short-term stretch run.
He's averaging almost 5 walks/9 innings this year, just like last season. But this move doesn't seem so much a demotion as an opportunity for him to become a back-ender from the pen, or at least a LOOGY, something the Pirates could use about now with Brad Lincoln traded and Tony Watson as the only southpaw reliever.
As a starter, he was doing OK with all his peripheral stuff except for control. In 23 starts, he's 8-5/4.14 in 117-1/3 frames. Wilson has surrendered just 83 hits with a opponent BA of .197. He’s fanned 121 hitters (9.3/nine innings) but walked 63 (4.8/nine innings).
In 2011, Wilson had the same situation and worked nine games from the pen. The most noticeable difference was that his gas went from the low to the upper nineties, touching 99. We saw the same kind of velocity spike from Lincoln when he was able to let it all hang out as a reliever instead of pacing himself as a starter.
Wilson, who will turn 25 next week, was a fifth rounder out of Fresno State in 2008, but signed late after a strong CWS run. Maybe the bullpen will end up his niche, though he still holds more value as a starter. Farm director Kyle Stark told Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review that moving Wilson to bullpen is a "short-term ML depth move as opposed to what Justin Wilson can be long-term."
But at any rate, it shows the Pirates are ready to address any pitching needs internally if push comes to shove. RHP Chris Leroux (1-0/2.27), who has a sub-one ERA in his last three outings, will take Wilson's spot in the rotation, and he'll be stretched out if Pittsburgh needs a long man/spot starter in the coming weeks.
They also have righty Bryan Morris stashed at Indy if they're looking for a set-up guy. He's 2-2/2.57 with five saves and has punched out 63 batters in 67-1/3 frames. LHP pitcher Doug Slaten is available, too. He's been killing at Indy (3-1/1.25) and has big league experience as a middle man, though in a cup of coffee in Pittsburgh earlier this year he had problems with nibbling at the edges too much, walking eight in 13 IP.
Beside Leroux, the FO also has LHP Jeff Locke on the back burner if the call for another starter goes up. he's 9-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.224 WHIP, averaging 8 K and 3 BB per nine innings.
The Bucs tried to set their rotation at the deadline by grabbing the top mid-tier guy, Wandy Rodriguez, but didn't land any bullpen help except for middle man Chad Qualls. Now it appears that they're getting their minor league ducks in line for the short-term stretch run.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Pitching Decisions Fast Approaching
Clint Hurdle told the media during the pre game gabfest that Jeff
Karstens won't be making another rehab start, but will climb the bump
for the Bucs during the upcoming Philly series. The rotation will likely
get pushed back a day for some mid-season maintenance.
Kevin Correia and Brad Lincoln aren't scheduled to pitch in Philadelphia, so he won't be bumping them immediately. But...
Could be Bad Brad is headed back to the pen, or perhaps Pittsburgh is getting some feelers on Correia, who is being shopped around. One of them has to go for JK, and this may be a way to buy an extra couple of days to decide which direction to take.
While Lincoln threw extremely well against Detroit yesterday, he has the potential to be a dependable back end reliever. With Juan Cruz on shaky ground lately, it gives them an option beside Jared Hughes for late game, high leverage situations until Jason Grilli and Joel Hanrahan make the scene. It would also bolster the pen if Hanny becomes a trade target in July, as will the impending return of Chris Leroux.
Correia's not been as bad as folk believe - after all, he is the five man in the rotation, pitching to a 4.21 ERA - but he is in the final year of his deal and blocking some youngsters at Indy. Erik Bedard is in the same boat as a rent-an-arm, and he should be dangled as trade bait next.
With Charlie Morton out, the depth isn't quite as plush as it was before. But with Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Rick VandenHurk and Justin Wilson all looking like viable MLB mid-to-back end starters (and that's what they'd be replacing) there are still plenty of options, especially with Gerrit Cole on a fast track with his potential MLB arrival date perhaps just a year away.
That's probably the main reason that the youngsters are still cooling their heels in AAA. For the Bucs to build any value for Correia and Bedard, they have to trot them out every fifth day. We think that by August, some of the Indy gang will be trading in their Tribe unis for jerseys with Pittsburgh across the chest. Whether that's good or bad in the short term is debatable, but it's absolutely necessary to throw them in the fire and see what the team has for the long run.
The FO has a lot of decisions to make over the next month, and for once, it's nice to see that they'll be in a position of strength when drawing up their plans.
Kevin Correia and Brad Lincoln aren't scheduled to pitch in Philadelphia, so he won't be bumping them immediately. But...
Could be Bad Brad is headed back to the pen, or perhaps Pittsburgh is getting some feelers on Correia, who is being shopped around. One of them has to go for JK, and this may be a way to buy an extra couple of days to decide which direction to take.
While Lincoln threw extremely well against Detroit yesterday, he has the potential to be a dependable back end reliever. With Juan Cruz on shaky ground lately, it gives them an option beside Jared Hughes for late game, high leverage situations until Jason Grilli and Joel Hanrahan make the scene. It would also bolster the pen if Hanny becomes a trade target in July, as will the impending return of Chris Leroux.
Correia's not been as bad as folk believe - after all, he is the five man in the rotation, pitching to a 4.21 ERA - but he is in the final year of his deal and blocking some youngsters at Indy. Erik Bedard is in the same boat as a rent-an-arm, and he should be dangled as trade bait next.
With Charlie Morton out, the depth isn't quite as plush as it was before. But with Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Rick VandenHurk and Justin Wilson all looking like viable MLB mid-to-back end starters (and that's what they'd be replacing) there are still plenty of options, especially with Gerrit Cole on a fast track with his potential MLB arrival date perhaps just a year away.
That's probably the main reason that the youngsters are still cooling their heels in AAA. For the Bucs to build any value for Correia and Bedard, they have to trot them out every fifth day. We think that by August, some of the Indy gang will be trading in their Tribe unis for jerseys with Pittsburgh across the chest. Whether that's good or bad in the short term is debatable, but it's absolutely necessary to throw them in the fire and see what the team has for the long run.
The FO has a lot of decisions to make over the next month, and for once, it's nice to see that they'll be in a position of strength when drawing up their plans.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Mid Camp Report: The Bullpen
The Bucs put together a pretty competent bullpen last season, and according to recent formula: a couple of proven arms, a pick up or two, and a sprinkling of minor league two-pitch guys. In fact, the Buc bullpens have been traditionally fairly solid, and this year's edition should be no different in either composition or results.
Last year's pen was a lot like the rotation - strong for four months, and then AWOL during the dog days. Through July, the relief corps was called on to cover 328 innings over 343 appearances (86 games-82 innings/month), and did so to the tune of a 3.05 ERA. In August and September, the firemen were waved in 206 times to mop up 198 frames (103 games-99 innings/month). They were scorched, putting together a 4.95 ERA.
Some of it was the workload. The Bucs led the NL in relief innings worked, and the number of innings and outings they absorbed in the last two months was telling. The bullpen had been rated in the upper-mid pack for much of the season until the August/September meltdown, when it drifted slowly into the bottom third.
A big part of the parcel was the rotation, which left too many innings to be worked by the long guys, generally the weakest link of any pitching staff, especially as the season wore on.
Still, they did OK statistically, posting a 23-29-43/3.76 ERA line with a .256 opponent BA. But it wasn't a lock-down game until Joel Hanrahan stepped on the hill. Hanny converted 91% of his save chances, going 40-for-44, and put up a brilliant 1.83 ERA, earning himself a $4M deal during the winter in the process.
But overall, the Pirates were 43-of-65 in save opportunities, converting just 66% of their chances, and that's not so good. Jose Veras and Chris Resop went a combined 2-for-14 as closers. That's probably as good a reason as any for the Bucs to have hung on to Hanny during the off-season, although his value on the market (and contract) will continue to keep him front and center in any trade rumors involving Pittsburgh.
Most of the back-end bullpen returns. Three right-handers, Jason Grilli, Chris Resop and Evan Meek, are considered close to locks, along with Hanny. The hope is that Meek claims the set-up spot, much like Hanrahan did in 2010, and uses it as a launching pad toward becoming the man. But he's had problems regaining his mid-nineties velocity post-injury after losing much of 2011 to shoulder tendinitis. His heater so far in the spring is sitting at 92 instead of 95-96, and that margin could cost him the eighth inning set up role.
That leaves six pitchers fighting for the final three spots. They are RHPs Daniel McCutchen, Chris Leroux and Juan Cruz, a non-roster signee, and LHPs Tony Watson, Daniel Moskos and Doug Slaten, inked on a minor league deal during the off-season. Clint Hurdle has often said that his preference is to have a pair of lefties in the pen, but in the Bucs case, that may be problematic.
None of the LHPs are particularly late inning, high leverage guys, and Watson (.193/.297) & Moskos (.250/.364) both had reverse splits, getting lit up by left handed hitters. Slaten during his career has a .297/.241 split, so at least he's somewhat effective against lefties. Moskos has held his own this spring, while Watson and Slaten have had a tough start, though none of the three has worked more than six innings yet.
Cruz has been pretty effective so far, and Hurdle has used him in late inning roles this spring. Often described as the Jose Veras of 2012, the 33-year-old went 5-0 with a 3.88 ERA in 56 appearances for Tampa Bay last season. The 11 year vet has a career line of 37-35-3/4.13 ERA while playing for the Cubs, Braves, Athletics, Diamondbacks, Royals and Rays. He's the frontrunner to date for the set-up spot if Meek continues to struggle while trying to regain his form.
McCutchen replaced Jeff Karstens as the long man last year, and went 5-3/3.72 in 73 outings. Leroux joined the staff during the season, and went 1-1/2.88 with 24 K in 25 innings.But with two weeks to go until opening day, the FO is waiting on guys to step up and claim their spots. Resop, Meek, Leroux, Watson and Slaten all have 6+ ERAs.
We know that spring numbers aren't worth the pixels used to generate them, but with open spots for the taking, the players aren't making roster decisions any easier on Hurdle and the FO. Pittsburgh used 20 guys out of the pen in 2011, and they may end up going through more than a few arms again this year until the players sort things out.
The bullpen outlook is the same as last year's was - strong enough to close out a game in the final three innings, but lacking in mid-game depth and glaringly short on lefties. Its biggest improvement would be for the starters to get into the seventh inning more often and play to the strength of the relievers.
The Neal Huntington bullpen blueprint is to cobble together a strong back end and fill in the bridge guys cheaply through the system and secondary market, and that's the route they've taken again this year.
They do seem to have a pretty fair eye for useful free agents, Joe Beimel not withstanding, having brought in Octavio Dotel, Jose Veras and Cruz in the past three seasons to shore up the back end. Not only did these pick-ups fill a need, but the FO turned Dotel and Veras into James McDonald and Casey McGehee, helping to build the team talent pool, too.
They're grooming a couple of power closing arms with Indy's Bryan Morris and Altoona's Duke Welker, plus possibly Justin Wilson, to finish games in the future. The FO thought highly enough of them to ship fireballing Diego Moreno to New York as part of the deal for AJ Burnett. With a boatload of potential mid-inning guys in the system to go along with the closers, they can ride their template into the near term.
Last year's pen was a lot like the rotation - strong for four months, and then AWOL during the dog days. Through July, the relief corps was called on to cover 328 innings over 343 appearances (86 games-82 innings/month), and did so to the tune of a 3.05 ERA. In August and September, the firemen were waved in 206 times to mop up 198 frames (103 games-99 innings/month). They were scorched, putting together a 4.95 ERA.
Some of it was the workload. The Bucs led the NL in relief innings worked, and the number of innings and outings they absorbed in the last two months was telling. The bullpen had been rated in the upper-mid pack for much of the season until the August/September meltdown, when it drifted slowly into the bottom third.
A big part of the parcel was the rotation, which left too many innings to be worked by the long guys, generally the weakest link of any pitching staff, especially as the season wore on.
Still, they did OK statistically, posting a 23-29-43/3.76 ERA line with a .256 opponent BA. But it wasn't a lock-down game until Joel Hanrahan stepped on the hill. Hanny converted 91% of his save chances, going 40-for-44, and put up a brilliant 1.83 ERA, earning himself a $4M deal during the winter in the process.
But overall, the Pirates were 43-of-65 in save opportunities, converting just 66% of their chances, and that's not so good. Jose Veras and Chris Resop went a combined 2-for-14 as closers. That's probably as good a reason as any for the Bucs to have hung on to Hanny during the off-season, although his value on the market (and contract) will continue to keep him front and center in any trade rumors involving Pittsburgh.
Most of the back-end bullpen returns. Three right-handers, Jason Grilli, Chris Resop and Evan Meek, are considered close to locks, along with Hanny. The hope is that Meek claims the set-up spot, much like Hanrahan did in 2010, and uses it as a launching pad toward becoming the man. But he's had problems regaining his mid-nineties velocity post-injury after losing much of 2011 to shoulder tendinitis. His heater so far in the spring is sitting at 92 instead of 95-96, and that margin could cost him the eighth inning set up role.
That leaves six pitchers fighting for the final three spots. They are RHPs Daniel McCutchen, Chris Leroux and Juan Cruz, a non-roster signee, and LHPs Tony Watson, Daniel Moskos and Doug Slaten, inked on a minor league deal during the off-season. Clint Hurdle has often said that his preference is to have a pair of lefties in the pen, but in the Bucs case, that may be problematic.
None of the LHPs are particularly late inning, high leverage guys, and Watson (.193/.297) & Moskos (.250/.364) both had reverse splits, getting lit up by left handed hitters. Slaten during his career has a .297/.241 split, so at least he's somewhat effective against lefties. Moskos has held his own this spring, while Watson and Slaten have had a tough start, though none of the three has worked more than six innings yet.
Cruz has been pretty effective so far, and Hurdle has used him in late inning roles this spring. Often described as the Jose Veras of 2012, the 33-year-old went 5-0 with a 3.88 ERA in 56 appearances for Tampa Bay last season. The 11 year vet has a career line of 37-35-3/4.13 ERA while playing for the Cubs, Braves, Athletics, Diamondbacks, Royals and Rays. He's the frontrunner to date for the set-up spot if Meek continues to struggle while trying to regain his form.
McCutchen replaced Jeff Karstens as the long man last year, and went 5-3/3.72 in 73 outings. Leroux joined the staff during the season, and went 1-1/2.88 with 24 K in 25 innings.But with two weeks to go until opening day, the FO is waiting on guys to step up and claim their spots. Resop, Meek, Leroux, Watson and Slaten all have 6+ ERAs.
We know that spring numbers aren't worth the pixels used to generate them, but with open spots for the taking, the players aren't making roster decisions any easier on Hurdle and the FO. Pittsburgh used 20 guys out of the pen in 2011, and they may end up going through more than a few arms again this year until the players sort things out.
The bullpen outlook is the same as last year's was - strong enough to close out a game in the final three innings, but lacking in mid-game depth and glaringly short on lefties. Its biggest improvement would be for the starters to get into the seventh inning more often and play to the strength of the relievers.
The Neal Huntington bullpen blueprint is to cobble together a strong back end and fill in the bridge guys cheaply through the system and secondary market, and that's the route they've taken again this year.
They do seem to have a pretty fair eye for useful free agents, Joe Beimel not withstanding, having brought in Octavio Dotel, Jose Veras and Cruz in the past three seasons to shore up the back end. Not only did these pick-ups fill a need, but the FO turned Dotel and Veras into James McDonald and Casey McGehee, helping to build the team talent pool, too.
They're grooming a couple of power closing arms with Indy's Bryan Morris and Altoona's Duke Welker, plus possibly Justin Wilson, to finish games in the future. The FO thought highly enough of them to ship fireballing Diego Moreno to New York as part of the deal for AJ Burnett. With a boatload of potential mid-inning guys in the system to go along with the closers, they can ride their template into the near term.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Mid Camp Report: The Rotation
The Pirates have optioned Gorkys Hernandez, Starling Marte, Kyle McPherson, Bryan Morris and Justin Wilson to Triple-A Indianapolis. That leaves 44 guys in camp, battling for 25 positions. It's time for the mid-camp breakdown, beginning today with the rotation:
The Top Level: This is one position the Pirates have made a little deeper, and its make-up probably won't be determined until May. Jeff Karstens, Erik Bedard, James McDonald and Kevin Correia are in right now, and Brad Lincoln has a chance to join them in the early going because AJ Burnett and Charlie Morton are still rehabbing.
Lincoln is on the shortest leash, and with an option left is likely to end up at Indy sooner rather than later, although he has a dark horse chance at a long/spot starter role on the big club. Correia was widely considered the odd man out when Burnett was signed, both based on his 2011 performance (12-11/4.79) and his background as a long man during his years with the Giants. But the 31 year old has spun nine shutout innings in the spring, giving up just three hits, so he's trying to make his case.
He and Karstens have had strong springs. Bedard has been OK, while J-Mac and Lincoln have struggled.
AAA Indy has Jeff Locke, Rudy Owens, and Kyle McPherson rostered and Shairon Martes of the Nats should soon join them. With Lincoln's return looming, the Tribe rotation will be stocked with young arms instead of veteran insurance policies.
The Bucs could use starters Justin Wilson and Jo-Jo Reyes out of the pen. But that scenario isn't written in stone, with Wilson especially likely to get another shot at holding down a rotation spot. Daniel Cabrera, who the Pirates have long liked, is also around for a look.
Gerrit Cole, the camp's first cut, will start the season at Bradenton, the Bucs' High A club, with an eye toward Altoona. Jameson Taillon is expected to join him there. Luis Heredia is slated to start at short season State College, which is a fast track for a seventeen year old, especially for a kid who just came stateside last season. Stetson Allie will probably also start the year off at SC, to work on his control and command before moving on to West Virginia. And by most camp reports, he has made strides in that area.
The Outlook: The Pirates have improved their depth and added a couple of guys in Bedard and Burnett that can miss a bat or two. But the staff doesn't have anyone with a steady track record of success, although the two newcomers have had turns as staff aces, something Pittsburgh has lacked since the Doug Drabek days. There are still alot of health, performance and maturity questions remaining among the group:
The minors are starting to show some movement, though the best talent will likely be no further advanced than Altoona by season's end. But with several elite arms in the pipeline along with some young guys stockpiled in the draft, by 2014 the Pirate system should begin feeding some live arms to the big club.
The Pirate staff isn't there yet. But considering the train wreck that Dave Littlefield left the Nutting team, this year's MLB rotation should be solid and the organization is finally on the verge of delivering talent to the upper levels.
The Top Level: This is one position the Pirates have made a little deeper, and its make-up probably won't be determined until May. Jeff Karstens, Erik Bedard, James McDonald and Kevin Correia are in right now, and Brad Lincoln has a chance to join them in the early going because AJ Burnett and Charlie Morton are still rehabbing.
Lincoln is on the shortest leash, and with an option left is likely to end up at Indy sooner rather than later, although he has a dark horse chance at a long/spot starter role on the big club. Correia was widely considered the odd man out when Burnett was signed, both based on his 2011 performance (12-11/4.79) and his background as a long man during his years with the Giants. But the 31 year old has spun nine shutout innings in the spring, giving up just three hits, so he's trying to make his case.
He and Karstens have had strong springs. Bedard has been OK, while J-Mac and Lincoln have struggled.
AAA Indy has Jeff Locke, Rudy Owens, and Kyle McPherson rostered and Shairon Martes of the Nats should soon join them. With Lincoln's return looming, the Tribe rotation will be stocked with young arms instead of veteran insurance policies.
The Bucs could use starters Justin Wilson and Jo-Jo Reyes out of the pen. But that scenario isn't written in stone, with Wilson especially likely to get another shot at holding down a rotation spot. Daniel Cabrera, who the Pirates have long liked, is also around for a look.
Gerrit Cole, the camp's first cut, will start the season at Bradenton, the Bucs' High A club, with an eye toward Altoona. Jameson Taillon is expected to join him there. Luis Heredia is slated to start at short season State College, which is a fast track for a seventeen year old, especially for a kid who just came stateside last season. Stetson Allie will probably also start the year off at SC, to work on his control and command before moving on to West Virginia. And by most camp reports, he has made strides in that area.
The Outlook: The Pirates have improved their depth and added a couple of guys in Bedard and Burnett that can miss a bat or two. But the staff doesn't have anyone with a steady track record of success, although the two newcomers have had turns as staff aces, something Pittsburgh has lacked since the Doug Drabek days. There are still alot of health, performance and maturity questions remaining among the group:
- Will Bedard give Pittsburgh 150-175 innings?
- Will the NL rejuvenate Burnett?
- Will statistical regression catch up to Karstens?
- Will McDonald break the five-inning barrier?
- Will Morton solve lefties?
- Will Correia remain effective in the dog days?
- Will Lincoln get aggressive at this level?
- Will any of the current AAA guys step up beyond end-of-the-rotation arms?
The minors are starting to show some movement, though the best talent will likely be no further advanced than Altoona by season's end. But with several elite arms in the pipeline along with some young guys stockpiled in the draft, by 2014 the Pirate system should begin feeding some live arms to the big club.
The Pirate staff isn't there yet. But considering the train wreck that Dave Littlefield left the Nutting team, this year's MLB rotation should be solid and the organization is finally on the verge of delivering talent to the upper levels.
Monday, February 20, 2012
2012 Pirate Rotation
The 2012 rotation has a new look to it, with a couple of veterans that have been top guns at some point in their career, a couple of younger guys with some upside, and a competition for the bottom end.
The first new guy, LHP Erik Bedard, signed this off season to a 1 year/$4.5M contract. It may not seem like an ace's paycheck, but Bedard is this year's top of the rotation guy. He's trying to reestablish his value, and where better than in low-pressure Pittsburgh?
The 32 year old (he'll turn 33 next month) has put up a 3.70 ERA in eight AL seasons, but only has 56 wins to show for. Durability, not stuff, is his major issue. He's only reached 30 starts once and never thrown 200 innings in a single season. In fact, he's only crossed the 100 inning mark once in the past four seasons, missing all of 2010 due to injury. Bedard posted a 3.62 ERA over 129-1/3 innings last season between the Mariners and Red Sox.
He gives up 3.5 walks per nine, but gets 8.8 Ks per game. If the Bucs can get 150-175 innings and 25-30 starts out him, they'll be repaid in spades for their modest investment. He doesn't have an option year in his contract, so he'll be one and done for Pittsburgh in 2012.
Behind him in the rotation should be AJ Burnett. The 35 year old is in camp and officially part of the team. His stuff and travails with New York have been well documented over the past week or so, but the righty can still miss some bats, and the Pirates hope to get 30+ starts and a 4.00 ERA out of him.
He adds more than an arm to the staff. Burnett, for all his tats and wild child rep, is said to be a good guy to young pitchers and his antics keep a clubhouse loose, even if they wear on management. If nothing else, Burnett should keep the writers and bloggers deep in column inches during his stay.
The Pirates assumed the last two years of his contract, paying him $5M this year and $8M in 2013. He also comes without an option, so Pittsburgh controls him through 2013.
RHP James McDonald, 27, showed some promise last season, although his 9-9/4.21 line wasn't all that impressive. But a rocky April and September inflated his ERA, and it was his first full season as an everyday starter. He has the ability to miss bats, but spent last season trying to manage his pitch count and getting easy outs rather than burning out his arm looking for the K, and it was an uneven effort at best.
That will be his mission this year: to get deeper into games and cut down his 4.1 walks per nine. His stuff is there if he can harness it and avoid deep counts. J-Mac will be arbitration eligible next year, so he's under team control through 2015.
Charlie Morton changed his arm slot last year and put his career back on track after a dismal 2010 campaign. The 28 year old righty went 10-10/3.83 in 2011 after a 2-12/7.57 season that resulted in a trip to Indy.
With his retooled delivery, he recorded 59% of his outs on the ground last year, and only 19% of his outs were in the air. The fewer flies, the fewer homers - and his HR rate/fly ball was a miniscule 5.8%, half of the norm, after being 18% in 2010.
This year, he's coming off labrum surgery and is a candidate to stay in Florida when the team leaves for a couple of reasons. The Bucs don't want to repeat the 2011 J-Mac situation when they hurried his return to the rotation. Secondly, the weather in Bradenton is much more conducive to recovery than a northern spring blast. And finally, he could use the time to work on a couple of lingering issues from 2011.
His splits were ridiculous. Righties hit .220 against him; lefties .364. OBP was worse, at .289/.460. An effective off speed pitch and a little more work on spotting his heat inside should be high on his to-do list. He also walked 4 batters per outing, and that could stand improvement.
We'd expect a little regression this year, especially in the home run rate, but also some improvement in his split numbers. Morton signed a $2.445M contract in his first arb season. He's under team control through 2014.
Jeff Karstens, 29, was the story in 2011. The righty went 9-9/3.38 and picked up the slack admirably when the now departed Ross Ohlendorf went down. A repeat performance isn't likely, at least in runs allowed. His strand rate was 77%, and his xFIP was 4.00. But his other stats were within his career line, and JK looks like he's proved that he can hold up the back end of a rotation.
After Clint Hurdle stretched him out and took him off his short pitch count leash, Karstens was dependable and generally got the game to the seventh inning or beyond. His stuff isn't great, but his control is and he moves the ball around. That's what you look for in a fifth starter. The downside is that he doesn't miss many bats and is a flyball pitcher, susceptible to the long ball.
He's also versatile, and shown over his time that he can be an effective spot starter and long man. The negative is that he was bombed in August and September, eventually leaving the rotation with shoulder soreness, which also shelved him in September of 2010, the season when JR first added him to the rotation. That could be the result of innings catching up to him, but the summer swoon bears watching in 2012.
He signed a $3.1 contract, and has a year of arbitration remaining.
Kevin Correia, 31, made the All-Star team and led the Pirate staff in wins with twelve. It wasn't very pretty; his ERA went up every month, finishing at 4.79. But he gave Pittsburgh a year that pretty much was predictable regarding performance, being well in line with his career stats. The only noticeable difference was a fairly large drop in his K rate, but that may have been by design as he also put up the lowest walk rate of his career.
Like Karstens, his stuff is pedestrian and he doesn't have much upside beyond a bottom of the rotation guy. He didn't become a full time starter until 2008, and it will be interesting to see which one ends up in the bullpen when Charlie Morton returns. It could be either guy, providing another little sidebar to follow.
He makes $3M this year, and is eligible for free agency in 2013.
Brad Lincoln, 26, along with non-roster invitee Shairon Martis, 24 (he'll turn 25 next month), are the top two minor league reserves. Lincoln, a first round pick in 2006, has 17 starts with the Pirates over the past two seasons, and was 2-3/4.72 in 2011. He needs to get more aggressive at the MLB level; nibbling and falling behind batters has been his MO.
Martis had nineteen starts over the past two seasons with the Nats, and posted a 6-6/5.33 line. He has a four pitch arsenal, and may have had his development stunted by call ups to Washington before his time.
Other guys in the upper system now are Jeff Locke, Rudy Owens, Kyle McPherson and perhaps Justin Wilson. Much of the talent and promise is in the lower levels, with Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Luis Heredia, Nick Kingham, Stetson Allie, Colton Cain, Zack Dodson and Zack von Rosenberg.
The Pirates have also brought in a couple of non-roster depth guys in Daniel Cabrera, who sat out 2011 with TJ surgery, and Jo-Jo Reyes to provide some depth.
There's some reason to be optimistic over this year's staff. If things fall together right, it will easily be the strongest rotation of the Coonelly/Huntington era, and with a little bit of depth.
Bedard and Burnett have both been staff aces at some point of their career, McDonald and Morton should be better prepared after a full year under their belts, and Karstens and Correia are competent at the bottom end.
It also could go bust - Bedard has injury concerns, Burnett has back-to-back seasons with 5+ ERAs, McDonald and Morton are trying to establish themselves, and Karstens and Correia are rotation fillers without much upside.
Half empty or half full? This season will tell if Huntington has built a staff that can carry on, at least until the young turks are ready to take the hill.
The first new guy, LHP Erik Bedard, signed this off season to a 1 year/$4.5M contract. It may not seem like an ace's paycheck, but Bedard is this year's top of the rotation guy. He's trying to reestablish his value, and where better than in low-pressure Pittsburgh?
The 32 year old (he'll turn 33 next month) has put up a 3.70 ERA in eight AL seasons, but only has 56 wins to show for. Durability, not stuff, is his major issue. He's only reached 30 starts once and never thrown 200 innings in a single season. In fact, he's only crossed the 100 inning mark once in the past four seasons, missing all of 2010 due to injury. Bedard posted a 3.62 ERA over 129-1/3 innings last season between the Mariners and Red Sox.
He gives up 3.5 walks per nine, but gets 8.8 Ks per game. If the Bucs can get 150-175 innings and 25-30 starts out him, they'll be repaid in spades for their modest investment. He doesn't have an option year in his contract, so he'll be one and done for Pittsburgh in 2012.
Behind him in the rotation should be AJ Burnett. The 35 year old is in camp and officially part of the team. His stuff and travails with New York have been well documented over the past week or so, but the righty can still miss some bats, and the Pirates hope to get 30+ starts and a 4.00 ERA out of him.
He adds more than an arm to the staff. Burnett, for all his tats and wild child rep, is said to be a good guy to young pitchers and his antics keep a clubhouse loose, even if they wear on management. If nothing else, Burnett should keep the writers and bloggers deep in column inches during his stay.
The Pirates assumed the last two years of his contract, paying him $5M this year and $8M in 2013. He also comes without an option, so Pittsburgh controls him through 2013.
RHP James McDonald, 27, showed some promise last season, although his 9-9/4.21 line wasn't all that impressive. But a rocky April and September inflated his ERA, and it was his first full season as an everyday starter. He has the ability to miss bats, but spent last season trying to manage his pitch count and getting easy outs rather than burning out his arm looking for the K, and it was an uneven effort at best.
That will be his mission this year: to get deeper into games and cut down his 4.1 walks per nine. His stuff is there if he can harness it and avoid deep counts. J-Mac will be arbitration eligible next year, so he's under team control through 2015.
Charlie Morton changed his arm slot last year and put his career back on track after a dismal 2010 campaign. The 28 year old righty went 10-10/3.83 in 2011 after a 2-12/7.57 season that resulted in a trip to Indy.
With his retooled delivery, he recorded 59% of his outs on the ground last year, and only 19% of his outs were in the air. The fewer flies, the fewer homers - and his HR rate/fly ball was a miniscule 5.8%, half of the norm, after being 18% in 2010.
This year, he's coming off labrum surgery and is a candidate to stay in Florida when the team leaves for a couple of reasons. The Bucs don't want to repeat the 2011 J-Mac situation when they hurried his return to the rotation. Secondly, the weather in Bradenton is much more conducive to recovery than a northern spring blast. And finally, he could use the time to work on a couple of lingering issues from 2011.
His splits were ridiculous. Righties hit .220 against him; lefties .364. OBP was worse, at .289/.460. An effective off speed pitch and a little more work on spotting his heat inside should be high on his to-do list. He also walked 4 batters per outing, and that could stand improvement.
We'd expect a little regression this year, especially in the home run rate, but also some improvement in his split numbers. Morton signed a $2.445M contract in his first arb season. He's under team control through 2014.
Jeff Karstens, 29, was the story in 2011. The righty went 9-9/3.38 and picked up the slack admirably when the now departed Ross Ohlendorf went down. A repeat performance isn't likely, at least in runs allowed. His strand rate was 77%, and his xFIP was 4.00. But his other stats were within his career line, and JK looks like he's proved that he can hold up the back end of a rotation.
After Clint Hurdle stretched him out and took him off his short pitch count leash, Karstens was dependable and generally got the game to the seventh inning or beyond. His stuff isn't great, but his control is and he moves the ball around. That's what you look for in a fifth starter. The downside is that he doesn't miss many bats and is a flyball pitcher, susceptible to the long ball.
He's also versatile, and shown over his time that he can be an effective spot starter and long man. The negative is that he was bombed in August and September, eventually leaving the rotation with shoulder soreness, which also shelved him in September of 2010, the season when JR first added him to the rotation. That could be the result of innings catching up to him, but the summer swoon bears watching in 2012.
He signed a $3.1 contract, and has a year of arbitration remaining.
Kevin Correia, 31, made the All-Star team and led the Pirate staff in wins with twelve. It wasn't very pretty; his ERA went up every month, finishing at 4.79. But he gave Pittsburgh a year that pretty much was predictable regarding performance, being well in line with his career stats. The only noticeable difference was a fairly large drop in his K rate, but that may have been by design as he also put up the lowest walk rate of his career.
Like Karstens, his stuff is pedestrian and he doesn't have much upside beyond a bottom of the rotation guy. He didn't become a full time starter until 2008, and it will be interesting to see which one ends up in the bullpen when Charlie Morton returns. It could be either guy, providing another little sidebar to follow.
He makes $3M this year, and is eligible for free agency in 2013.
Brad Lincoln, 26, along with non-roster invitee Shairon Martis, 24 (he'll turn 25 next month), are the top two minor league reserves. Lincoln, a first round pick in 2006, has 17 starts with the Pirates over the past two seasons, and was 2-3/4.72 in 2011. He needs to get more aggressive at the MLB level; nibbling and falling behind batters has been his MO.
Martis had nineteen starts over the past two seasons with the Nats, and posted a 6-6/5.33 line. He has a four pitch arsenal, and may have had his development stunted by call ups to Washington before his time.
Other guys in the upper system now are Jeff Locke, Rudy Owens, Kyle McPherson and perhaps Justin Wilson. Much of the talent and promise is in the lower levels, with Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Luis Heredia, Nick Kingham, Stetson Allie, Colton Cain, Zack Dodson and Zack von Rosenberg.
The Pirates have also brought in a couple of non-roster depth guys in Daniel Cabrera, who sat out 2011 with TJ surgery, and Jo-Jo Reyes to provide some depth.
There's some reason to be optimistic over this year's staff. If things fall together right, it will easily be the strongest rotation of the Coonelly/Huntington era, and with a little bit of depth.
Bedard and Burnett have both been staff aces at some point of their career, McDonald and Morton should be better prepared after a full year under their belts, and Karstens and Correia are competent at the bottom end.
It also could go bust - Bedard has injury concerns, Burnett has back-to-back seasons with 5+ ERAs, McDonald and Morton are trying to establish themselves, and Karstens and Correia are rotation fillers without much upside.
Half empty or half full? This season will tell if Huntington has built a staff that can carry on, at least until the young turks are ready to take the hill.
Monday, January 2, 2012
2012...Lookin' For Pitching
OK, the Bucs top prospect list is loaded with young starters - Gerritt Cole, Jaimison Taillon, Luis Heredia, and Stetson Allie are at the head of the class. Other youngsters like Zach Von Rosenberg, Nick Kingham, Clay Holmes and Phil Irwin are learning their craft. AAA will have Rudy Owens and Justin Wilson returning, with Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson ready to join them. And that's good; like money, you can never have too much pitching.
But none of them will impact this coming season. The only young guy who can provide some immediate help is Brad Lincoln, and he looks closer to being plugged into the bottom rather than top end of the rotation. On top of that, Charlie Morton is recovering from hip surgery, and while his rehab is by all reports going well, it would be foolhardy to expect him to be ready for camp and an April role on the team.
That leaves newcomer Eric Bedard, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia and Lincoln as the opening day staff. The top half looks pretty solid, but that's it. There's no depth and no one behind them right now. And all have some kind of question mark attached to them.
Can Bedard stay healthy? Can J-Mac get past five innings? Can Karstens repeat a break-out season? Can Correia recover from his second-half meltdown? Can Lincoln find his mojo in the bigs? Can Morton recover quickly and figure out how to get a lefty to sit down?
As with all questions, some will have a positive answer and some won't. And the Pirates are ill-prepared right now to deal with someone stumbling out of the blocks. So while the FO, like Green Weenie, took a healthy break during the holidays, it's time to roll up the sleeves and add another starter, someone with enough chops to at least work from the middle of the pack, not the bottom.
Wei-Yin Chen, Bartolo Colon, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Hisashi Iwakuma, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, and Joe Saunders are still available (as is Paul Maholm), according to MLB Trade Rumors.
We can eliminate Jackson, a name that's been tossed around in local chat rooms, from the conversation. He's looking for a fair-sized, multi-year contract, and that's not happening in Pittsburgh. Chen, Francis, Maholm and Saunders are also looking for more than a year.
That doesn't leave a lot. Penny has been fairly strong in the NL although a dud in the AL and Oswalt would require a major contract, as would Iwakuma and Kuroda. The rest represent an upgrade, even of modest proportions, to the existing staff and could probably be landed with a one-year deal if structured with plenty of bonuses. We also like Chris Young, if he could be lured by a minor league deal and camp invite.
So we're hoping that the Pirate inactivity during the holidays was spent in spadework to add another pitcher to the rotation. Remember, they went through ten starters in 2011, and that exposed a depth problem that still exists today. If they don't plug that hole, 2012 could be another long year.
But none of them will impact this coming season. The only young guy who can provide some immediate help is Brad Lincoln, and he looks closer to being plugged into the bottom rather than top end of the rotation. On top of that, Charlie Morton is recovering from hip surgery, and while his rehab is by all reports going well, it would be foolhardy to expect him to be ready for camp and an April role on the team.
That leaves newcomer Eric Bedard, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia and Lincoln as the opening day staff. The top half looks pretty solid, but that's it. There's no depth and no one behind them right now. And all have some kind of question mark attached to them.
Can Bedard stay healthy? Can J-Mac get past five innings? Can Karstens repeat a break-out season? Can Correia recover from his second-half meltdown? Can Lincoln find his mojo in the bigs? Can Morton recover quickly and figure out how to get a lefty to sit down?
As with all questions, some will have a positive answer and some won't. And the Pirates are ill-prepared right now to deal with someone stumbling out of the blocks. So while the FO, like Green Weenie, took a healthy break during the holidays, it's time to roll up the sleeves and add another starter, someone with enough chops to at least work from the middle of the pack, not the bottom.
Wei-Yin Chen, Bartolo Colon, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Hisashi Iwakuma, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, and Joe Saunders are still available (as is Paul Maholm), according to MLB Trade Rumors.
We can eliminate Jackson, a name that's been tossed around in local chat rooms, from the conversation. He's looking for a fair-sized, multi-year contract, and that's not happening in Pittsburgh. Chen, Francis, Maholm and Saunders are also looking for more than a year.
That doesn't leave a lot. Penny has been fairly strong in the NL although a dud in the AL and Oswalt would require a major contract, as would Iwakuma and Kuroda. The rest represent an upgrade, even of modest proportions, to the existing staff and could probably be landed with a one-year deal if structured with plenty of bonuses. We also like Chris Young, if he could be lured by a minor league deal and camp invite.
So we're hoping that the Pirate inactivity during the holidays was spent in spadework to add another pitcher to the rotation. Remember, they went through ten starters in 2011, and that exposed a depth problem that still exists today. If they don't plug that hole, 2012 could be another long year.
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