Pitching In September...Mostly OK, But With Some Workload Issues

With today off, the Bucs get to play with the rotation a bit. What they came up with was: Jeff Locke Tuesday, Charlie Morton Wednesday and Gerrit Cole Thursday to work against the Brewers. Francisco Liriano and AJ Burnett then get to toss in the St. Louis series, with a TBA for the third game.

It makes sense to save the top two for the Card set, plus Frankie and AJ are in line to pitch the final 2013 regular season series September 6th-9th at Busch Stadium.

And the top three guys should, barring an injury, be plenty strong through September. All have gotten an injury time out somewhere along the line, so none have burnout issues.

AJ, a 200 inning guy, is sitting at 153 IP. The Cisco Kid is at 125 IP; he worked 156 last year. Ground Chuck has tossed just 76-1/3 frames and if anything, should be getting stronger. Jeff Locke may be showing signs of wear and tear, but that may be more due to the mental rather than physical  workload of an everyday MLB pitcher. He tossed 175-1/3 frames last year and is at 143-2/3 now, so he's right on target if he holds on to his spot.

Cole is the only pitcher with a possible inning overload, and the Bucs are carefully monitoring his outings.  He'll have seven days off before starting Thursday, as he did earlier in the month. He's worked 146 innings between levels this season after tossing 132 innings in 2012, but if the Pirates have an inning cut-off for him, they haven't leaked it yet. We think they'd like to work him semi-regularly through September and have him available for post-season bullpen work.

That won't be easy during the stretch run. The Pirates are off on September 5th, then scheduled for 20 straight games until their next holiday on September 26th.

The options grow in a week when September rolls in. Brandon Cumpton and Kris Johnson, who have both acquitted themselves well in brief MLB stints, and Stolmy Pimentel should get calls to the big club. Cumpton is in good shape as far as IP goes.

But Johnson has already topped his inning count (141-2/3; 101-2/3 in 2011), as has Pimentel. Stolmy has 163-1/3 frames under his belt, with a start today, after working just 115-2/3 innings in 2012. So if they're worried about Cole's inning count, the FO should be downright manic over Johnson and Pimentel's 2013 workload.

Wandy is effectively out of action, it doesn't seem like Jeff Karstens will be back this year, and Kyle McPherson/Jeff Irwin are also out. So the trio of Cumpton, Johnson and Pimentel is the cavalry for the Pirate rotation next month, and they've been ridden pretty hard except for Cumpton already this year.

The bullpen is in decent shape, a credit to Clint Hurdle's sometimes mystifying but generally effective use of his relievers.

Mark Melancon is at 59-1/3 IP, and worked 66-2/3 last year between Boston and Pawtucket. He's maxed out at 74-1/3 (2011 - Astros). Jason Grilli has gotten a mid-season break, admittedly the hard way, but enough to keep him well under his 2011-12 inning count. The alpha shark should be ready to circle the mound again perhaps as soon as Labor Day weekend or just beyond if he doesn't have any rehab setbacks.

Tony Watson may bear some care. He's made fewer appearances, but they've been longer, and he's put up 62-1/3 innings this year compared to 53 in 2012. But he did work 75 frames in 2011, so he should be fine if limited to one inning outings.

For Justin Wilson, Vin Mazzaro, Bryan Morris and Jeanmar Gomez, the only potential fly in the ointment is the number of appearances. All were at least part-time starters last year, so the innings are well under control if the up-and-down of bullpen life doesn't wear them down in their first full season as part of the relief corps.

Jared Hughes and probable call-ups Ryan Reid and Vic Black are all have their innings under control. Duke Welker has 60 IP, near his limit, so he may be on a short leash. J-Mac should also be primed for bullpen duty if he can get through rehab, which he's already begun. We wouldn't look for starter-turned-reliever Andy Oliver. Since July 4th, his ERA has been 7.00 and he's walked 30 batters in 27 IP.

So going into September, the Pirate starting pitching is thin - it'll be interesting to see who the Bucs plug in if Jeff Locke continues his free fall - but the bullpen will be deep. Hopefully the two will mesh during the upcoming run for the roses.

Locke To Miss All-Star Action; Buc Rotation Set After The Break

A couple of last minute pitching notes:

• Jeff Locke will miss Sunday's start and won't pitch in the All-Star Game because of "lower-back tightness." It's thought to be minor, but the Bucs don't want to take any chances. Locke will still be part of the All-Star shake-and-bake in New York, except for taking part in the game. His AS replacement will be announced later, while Gerrit Cole will pick up tomorrow's start. Could be that an All-Star call for Mark Melancon or Francisco Liriano is just down the road... 
• The post All-Star break rotation: Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett and Jeff Locke go against the Reds with Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole doing the opening honors against the Nats.

Pirate Pitching Post-All Star and Beyond

The Pirates started the year with enough pitchers to field a pair of rotations. Good thing, too, as attrition has claimed its toll in the first dozen weeks of the campaign.

Performance has sent a couple of guys to the trash heap. Jonathan Sanchez flamed out about as spectacularly as humanly possible, and we'll find out any time now what the Bucs plan to do with J-Mac. It's possible he could end up in the pen, and just as possible he ends up in a different uniform. But he won't be starting. Andy Oliver was considered MLB-ready when the Bucs traded for him. But until he resolves some brutal control issues at Indy, he's out of the picture, having been bypassed for Brandon Cumpton when a spot start became available.

Injury has also reared its ugly head. Jeff Karstens had shoulder surgery this month, and we won't see him again until September. Kyle McPherson, who was in the mix with Jeff Locke for the last rotation spot, had shoulder issues in 2012 and has been out since early April with an elbow injury. Phil Irwin was put on the minor league DL in early May with "arm fatigue" and was placed on the 60-day DL.

Then there's been the garden variety injuries. Wandy Rodriguez has been down a couple of times, but is about due to return; he may or may not toss one more rehab start. Jean Gomez will be back this week to work against Seattle. AJ Burnett is out and hasn't begun baseball activities yet, so his return date is uncertain.

The rotation is regaining its shape. By the weekend, it will be Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, Gerrit Cole, Jeanmar Gomez and Charlie Morton. When Wandy returns, he'll presumably slide into Jeanmar's spot, with Gomez returning to his long man/spot starter role in the bullpen. When AJ returns, Cole is likely to go back to Indy. That's not a performance or fiscal issue, but a one of depth. There's really no move remaining for the Pirates that doesn't cost them a pitcher; only Cole and Locke have options.

The question will be how long he'll be down; we'd expect that he'll return before September 1st if the Bucs remain in the hunt, to make him playoff eligible.

Of course, that's without any other injuries to the staff, and that's pretty unlikely.

The Pirates now feature seven starters - Burnett, Rodriguez, Locke, Liriano, Morton, Cole and Gomez. The trio of healthy minor league starters on the 40-man are Stolmy Pimentel, Cumpton and Oliver; that's the cavalry. And if the Pirates can get away with a summer of nicks and bumps, that's enough; most starting depth charts are built to run eight or nine deep over the course of a season.

Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham are at Altoona. By next summer or maybe 2015, they should join McPherson and Irwin as guys in the mix.

2014 could be a shake-up season. Cole will certainly start the season with Pittsburgh, as will Locke, both firmly inder team control. Liriano has a club option for 2014, which we assume will be used. Morton has another arbitration year and so is also under team control. The others are a little iffier.

Rodriguez has a player option worth $13M, and there's a good chance that he may not exercise it and take a stab at free agency. If so, the Pirates will probably offer him a tender, which would net the Bucs a draft pick if he goes. AJ is a free agent, and hasn't made up his mind whether or not to return. J-Mac will be arb eligible; if he's still here, the betting line is against his getting tendered.

Pimentel, McPherson, Irwin, Oliver, Kingham, Cumpton and Taillon will all be under team control, and it will be a year of decision for Oliver and Pimentel, as both will be out of options.

If the Bucs can avoid a rash of injuries post-All Star, they have enough depth to survive the usual missed starts of the summer, being seven deep but thin at Indy because of injuries. Next year could well begin the long awaited transition to a younger and more home grown staff.

Bucco Night Moves - AJ On DL, Rotation Shuffle, Contreras Released

OK, AJ is out for the weekend series against LA. He told the team yesterday he had some discomfort in his calf, and was placed on the 15-day DL. AJ was supposed to go tomorrow, so Jeff Locke will be bumped up a day to cover that and Gerrit Cole will go Sunday.

AJ is the ninth starter to hit the DL, joining Charlie Morton, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Karstens, Phil Irwin, Kyle McPherson, James McDonald, Jeanmar Gomez and Wandy Rodriguez. The bullpen has been hit with injuries to Jared Hughes, Jose Contreras and Vic Black. Good thing the FO emphasized pitching depth this year, hey?

That leaves Saturday open; our guess is that Bryan Morris will get that call. If they don't want to mess with the pen (the next off day is the 24th), then Andy Oliver is the next in line at Indy for a spot start. His last outing was on the 9th, he's on the 40-man roster, and he's seen some MLB action with the Tigers, so he'll be OK to go in a number of ways. Then again, he hasn't gone over six IP for Indy this year and has walked six in five of his past six games, so he's a mixed bag. Very less likely is a J-Mac visit.

As for Charlie Morton's return, well, that required a little paperwork. He had to be returned to the 40-man and active rosters. The Bucs FO took the roster shuffling to the wire, no doubt in light of Burnett's injury and maybe burning the cell batteries working on a late deal for one of their fringier relievers.

The ultimate outcome: Jose Contreras was given his unconditional release to clear the 40-man spot, pretty much a no brainer, while AJ's trip to the DL opened an active spot. Now Charlie's good to go, but that Bucco rotation is gonna be awfully thin for awhile.

Tuesday's Question...To Cole Or Not To Cole?

OK, what we know for sure is that Wandy Rodriguez will not start against the Giants on Tuesday. Instead, he'll be throwing a side on Monday to determine if a) he can go on Thursday or b) he'll go on the DL. So what are the Bucs to do?

The first thought was that the Pirates would skip what was scheduled to be Charlie Morton's last rehab start and insert him in the lineup. That thought was squelched as he hasn't been all that sharp at Indy - nor has James McDonald, who may be looking at a bullpen role or worse if he doesn't fly right soon - and leaving the choice pretty much up to piggybacking the bullpen or calling up a starter from Indy.

The pen is littered with with former starters - Vin Mazzaro, Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris all come to mind - and is carrying an extra arm. Wilson and Morris have both worked 50+ pitches, 3+ inning outings (Wilson  3-1/3 IP, 55 pitches; Morris 3-2/3 IP, 56 pitches) so it's conceivable that either one could give the Pirates five frames and 70 pitches or so.

And that would make life easier; no fooling with roster changes or disrupting schedules too much, though it does thin out the shark tank for a spell. We'll see if the club gets through the weekend series without needing the services of Wilson or Morris to determine how plausible the piggyback theory is by Tuesday after Monday's off day.

The risk  is that they don't get to the uncharted territory of five frames. Even an overflowing bullpen can get taxed in a hurry if the starter falters early. The pen has ridden to the rescue six times when the starter hasn't been able to get out of the third (or earlier - twice they've been waved in during the opening frame) and four more times when they've been called to action in the fourth inning. Toss in six extra inning games, and you have a pen that's eaten innings like a Sumo at a sushi buffet.

That leaves Indy, and the bona fides there are Andy Oliver, who needs a GPS locator to find the plate, or the peoples' choice, Gerrit Cole. Neither are on the 40-man roster, so calling them up would require a move on the list. Oliver's rotation spot doesn't mesh with a Tuesday start very well, but Cole's does; he'd be working with an extra day's rest.

He's done the final checklist thing the FO looks for - overcoming the adversity of a couple of rough outings by pitching three straight strong games, with the last pair being shutouts - and should be ready in all facets to make his MLB bow. And the FO and Clint Hurdle have both indicated that he's on the radar for Tuesday.

We sense that the Pirates are waiting out the decision, weighing in the aforementioned factors of bullpen usage in Chicago, Wandy's prognosis and fussing with the roster (which they'll have to do sooner or later, unless they plan to use a four man rotation for the rest of the season). The additional kicker is that Tuesday falls just about smack-dab on the projected cut-off date for Super Two status, a pocketbook item that may or may not play some role in the decision process.

It makes no sense to bring up Cole for a one-and-out start; when he arrives, it should be for good. And if he was a slam dunk to start Tuesday, the Pirate PR folk would be remiss to not play it up to get PNC rockin' for his debut; it's a natural tie in with draft week. So we're feelin' that the series against the Cubs/Wandy are the deciders.

If the team gets away without burning up the pen badly - and the use of Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli will play into it, too - they'll buy time and go with Wilson or Morris for a spot start, evaluate Wandy, have an extra peek at Morton and bring up Cole sometime before the All-Star break to join the staff. But if the Cubbies make them dig deep into the pen this weekend or Rodriguez hits the DL, it'll be showtime for Cole.

Jared Hughes & Ryan Reid Called Up; Other Moves Brewing

The bullpen has been stretched pretty tight this year, starting with Jonathan Sanchez and now just about reaching the snapping point yesterday when the third 11-inning game in a week required 10 frames from the relief corps.

So RHPs Jared Hughes, 26, who was sent down to Indy earlier in the year in search of his sinker, and Ryan Reid, 28, a minor-league vet who has been lights-out for the Tribe, are on the way.

Hughes pitched 13 games for the Pirates this year, going 1-2/4.61. In three years, he's appeared in 91 games, with a line of 3-5-2 with a 3.23 ERA. In 11 outings for Indy, he's 1-0-2 with 0.69 ERA. Hughes is a middle guy who depends on his sinker, which has led to a 59.8% ground ball rate in the MLB. He doesn't have true swing-and-miss stuff, so he's unlikely to ever become a back-end arm.

Reid is in his third AAA season, going 13-5-2 with a 3.24 ERA between the Tampa Bay & Pittsburgh systems. But he's been brilliant for the Tribe, going 6-1, 0.52 in 34-2/3 IP with 31 K. He's a sinker/slider pitcher, a pretty common combo in the Pittsburgh Shark Tank. Reid isn't on the 40-man roster, so his call requires not just an active roster move but a space on the as-of-now full 40 man roster. In the last two years, Reid has averaged a K per inning, and he does come from a talent rich organization, so he'll be one to watch.

There are several scenarios as to how the other domino pieces would fall. Mike Zagurski, John McDonald, or Jose Contraras could be DFA'ed to clear that 40-man spot. Jeanmar Gomez, who had a generally defined "forearm tightness" issue yesterday, could be anything from day-to-day to possible 60 day DL fodder (although 15 day DL seems the safest bet).

If Gomez misses a start, as seems likely, Charlie Morton is shadowing his rotation day at Indy. He hasn't been all that hot in rehab, but should be called up to fill Gomez's next start, which could be pushed back or maybe skipped as Thursday is an off day for the Bucs. So stay tuned, we'll update you on the Bucs latest shake-and-bakin' .

All Those Pirate Pitchers...

Remember during the off season and camp when the discussion centered around all those Pirate starting candidates and what to do with them? Well, a month into the season, here's how that situation looks:

Here today:

AJ Burnett: The leader of the pack, 36, has the NL lead in whiffs with 48 and is off to a 2-2/2.83 start, so he's kept on keeping on from a nice 2012 season. The only downside is that all those punchouts come at a cost in pitch count, and AJ hasn't made it into the sixth for three of his six starts.

Wandy Rodriguez: The 34 year old vet is 2-1/3.91 even after his recent beatdown in Milwaukee. He's never been a guy to go deep into games, although he has lasted into the seventh in two of his four healthy starts. Wandy came here advertised as a solid mid-rotation guy, and has been as a Pirate.

James McDonald: Sheesh, what can you say? The 28 year old righty is 2-2 with 5.56 ERA, and in six games has two gems and two clunkers. The Bucs will keep trotting him out, hoping the good James will show up more often than his battered alter ego.

Jeff Locke: The young lefty is starting to figure it out. He's showed early on that he was willing to go inside, and in the last couple of games has begun to thrown strikes on the inner half. The 24 year old is 3-1/2.83 and is living up to his rep as a potential  #4 arm. Three of his last four starts have been solid or better. The test will be his consistency, and whether he gets caught in a numbers game as he has an option remaining.

Jeanmar Gomez: He came from the Indians as a sixth starter, and looks like the 2013 version of the old Jeff Karstens in the long man/spot starter role. The 25 year old is 1-0 with a 3.06 ERA. That comes with the caveat that his peripherals aren't all that, as shown by his 5.08 FIP. Complicating his future is a lack of minor league options.

Justin Wilson:  Wilson was a starter at Indy, with two combo no-hitters in AAA last year. The Bucs seem satisfied to use the 25 year old as a southpaw complement to Tony Watson and a Brad Lincoln clone. He's 2-0/1.97 (with a 2.02 FIP) in that role, even as walk problems (4.4/nine) continue to be his bugaboo, and that issue may keep him as a bullpen arm rather than eventual rotation guy.

On the horizon:

Francisco Liriano: The former 29 year old All-Star was a late addition as a FA, though a bizarro accident at home landed him on the DL. His stuff has never been in question, though his command has. The Bucs think he's a tweak away from becoming a solid starter. Liriano has been spectacular in his two Indy rehab starts, going 2-0/1.64 with 17 K and 0 walks in 11 IP. The next test is to get him to 100 pitches, and then he'll be in Pittsburgh. The Pirates have already penciled the lefty in for his debut on May 11th.

Charlie Morton: Every time the 29 year old looks like he's ready to contribute every fifth day, he goes down. He's done his work at Altoona, going 2-0/0.90, with his only downer being a pedestrian 6.3/nine K rate, but more than countered by giving up just four hits in 10 frames. Morton is a couple of starts from being ready if all goes well and is slated to return on May 14th.

On the farm:

Gerrit Cole: It's a not matter of if but of when for the 22 year old #1 pick. But aside from starting his clock early, 15 walks in 23-1/3 frames shows he still has some work to do at Indy.

Andy Oliver: The power lefty the Bucs picked up from Detroit has taken over Justin Wilson's wild child role on the Indy staff. Oliver, 25, averages 11 K per game for the Tribe, but has to cut down on those 5.3 walks. To help muddy the 2014 waters, he's also out of options following the season.

Phil Irwin: The 26 year old was a breakout guy last season. But he's had a dead arm issue for a couple of weeks, and is just returning to the Indy rotation. He only has five AAA starts, so he'll need some exposure to more advanced hitters to see where his path leads.

Jameson Taillon: After a hot start, Taillon has thudded to earth in his past two outings at Altoona. He's 21 and his peripherals are all in line; now he just needs to learn his craft.

Stolmy Pimentel: The Bucs really liked the 23 year old they hauled in from Boston. He's 2-0 after five starts for the Curve with a 0.30 ERA, and the only peripheral that's out of whack is his 4.4 walks/nine. If he continues to be strong, the Bucs will have a hard decision next season. He'll likely need some more work, but will be out of options, so look for a quick promotion to Indy to evaluate him this year.

Luis Heredia: The 18 year old is in Pirate City now, and looks as if he'll be on the short-season Jamestown roster or maybe a mid-season addition to Low-A West Virginia. He's come along well so far, and the Pirates are more concerned with development issues like IP, secondary pitches and fastball command at this point than fast-tracking him.

Ouch:

Jeff Karstens: The Bucs didn't tender him during the off season because of durability concerns and inked him on a cut rate deal when Francisco Liriano went down. Dang if he isn't hurt again (tendenitis), and not even rehabbing yet. So his future beyond carrying a clipboard and serving as a late summer insurance policy is cloudy at this point.

Kyle McPherson: He's got the stuff to be a mid-rotation guy and had a strong September showing in the show last year, but has been on ice with off-and-on arm pain for the past two seasons, and clearing that up is on top of his to-do list. The 25 year old hasn't been 100% since camp this year, showing signs of a bum wing in the latter stages of spring training and lasting only 4-2/3 frames in a pair of starts at Indy, and is shut down right now.

Gone:

Jonathan Sanchez: Johnny, we hardly knew ya'.

The depth of Pirate pitching is pretty solid, even with the lost classes of 2008-09; Wilson and Irwin are the only pitchers to make it to Pittsburgh from those drafts. There are a lot of guys with option or injury issues, and AJ may or may not return in 2014, but the Bucs have a handful of guys in the lower levels that are ready to step up in class. They're not there yet, but by 2015 the pitching pipeline should be fairly full.

2013 Pirates - The Pitchers

Yah, yah, the streak. If the Bucs are going to put that into their rear view mirror, the pitching is going to have make the difference. The Pirates have a lot of options, not so much coming out of camp but certainly within the next few weeks, when Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens and Jose Contreras will become available.

The key to the staff is that depth. There is no ace, so the Pirates will depend on workmanlike performances from one through five. They'll win their series because the bottom end of the rotation holds up their end of the deal and the bullpen is rock steady.

For their improved performance last season, according to Fangraphs, the Pirate starters still finished 22nd among MLB rotations in WAR in 2012, with a 61-64 record, 4.21 ERA (4.05 FIP) and a combined 8.1 WAR. The Cards were at 15.8, the Brewers at 14.1 and the Reds at 13.7, so the rotation is still considerably behind the Division's Big Three teams. Heck, even the Cubs came in with an 8.0 WAR, so the Buc staff has a way to go to catch up to the Central's standards.

The bullpen was, contrary to popular opinion, not a whole lot better, finishing 19th with an 18-19-45 slate, 3.36 ERA (3.73 FIP) and 2.3 WAR. But it was one of the better collections in the Central; the Reds were the NL's best relief corp with a 6.3 WAR, but the other Central clubs fell below the Bucs, and that helped the cause.

The final pitching WAR ratings were 20.1 for the Reds, 16.8 for the Cards, 15.3 for the Brewers, 10.4 for the Bucs and trailing the pack were the Cubs at 6.3. The Pirates have to close that gap to compete, and that will be the story of the season.

Starting Pitchers: AJ is the returning ace; he went 16-10 with a 3.51 ERA last year and provided the starters a little edginess on the bump. But he's 36, had a shaky spring and is expected to regress a little, with his ERA dropping into the 4.00 range. But he should still work a couple hundred solid innings for the staff.

Wandy Rodriguez could be the staff anchor this season. Like Neil Walker, he's Mr. Dependable; Wandy's worked 175-200 frames with a sub-4 ERA for years. But his K rate has dropped and he's never been a huge winner, usually racking up a dozen or so victories. He does keep you in games, though, had a good spring and should be comfortable with Pittsburgh now.

James McDonald is the Jekyll and Hyde of the staff. In the spring, he's had first inning problems before settling into a groove. We'll assume that this season, his 4.21 ERA will smooth out, and that should be worth 10-12 wins. A breakout year from him would help get the staff over the hump, but he hasn't shown that's in the cards yet this year.

Jonathan Sanchez won the fourth spot after a rocky start; we feel the lefty is a potential bounce back guy after a 2012 season from hell. He's healthy, and is another guy that projects to a 4+ ERA, never been a big inning eater and except for his 2010 breakout year, has never won 10+ games. But that year showed he has some potential, especially as a back-ender, so like J-Mac, we'll see which pitcher shows up on the hill.

Jeff Locke holds down the fort; he worked a steady spring. The lefty went 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA. But an above-average walk rate and a low K rate hold him back, limiting him to a back-ender unless he gets more agressive.

And this staff won't be intact; by June, there could be wholesale changes. We mentioned in the lede the guys that are coming back. But how much they can improve the staff is a question; Cole has the stuff but no experience; Liriano's control issues have held him back, and Morton/Karstens have an injury history. Still, we think the staff can claim more than the 61 W's they earned in 2012.

The Bullpen: The question here is whether the Jason Grilli/Mark Melancon duo can match the Joel Hanrahna/Jason Grilli combo of 2012.  Grilli may not have closed last year, but he faced the heart of the order plenty of times, greasing the skid for Hanny. Melancon had a bumpy start for Boston, but finished strong and has a solid late-inning resume. We're comfortable that they may not be as dominating as in 2012 but should be able to close out games effectively.

We're a little more concerned with the bridge guys. Jared Hughes continued to look like money in the bank this spring, but both Tony Watson and Chris Leroux were inconsistent at camp. Justin Wilson and Jeanmar Gomez were added to the staff. With them, the Pirates have two pitchers that can come in early without killing the pen, and we think Wilson, even with his control issues, can be the multi-role Brad Lincoln of  2013.

They also have a little depth behind them. Contreras and youngsters Bryan Morris, Kyle McPherson and Phil Irwin at Indy are capable and vets like Ryan Reid can step in when injuries and performance ring the bell.

The pitching last year seemed like up to the fans because it had been so poor in prior years, but it still has a lot of room to grow. This is a transitional period; Cole and Jameson Taillon, along with a group of mid-to-back level minor league arms, will take their place in Pittsburgh over the next couple of seasons or so.

If the Pirates, with their collection of decent but not elite pitching this year, can continue to rise toward the middle of the league pack statistically, they could well be a winning club this year. And it's been a long time since we've been able to say that.

But they also have enough questions that they could hang out in the bottom third of the MLB again, and that will lead to yet another "wait til next year" moment.  As the pitching goes, so goes the season.

Pitchers, Catchers Camp Roster

It's a week away. The equipment trucks have left PNC Park for Florida, and the pitchers and catchers report to camp on February 11th. Here's the guys that will crank it up next week and a brief breakdown:

Active Roster (Pitchers - 22): Vic Black, AJ Burnett, Jeanmar Gomez, Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Phil Irwin, Jeff Karstens, Chris Leroux, Jeff Locke*, Vin Mazzaro, James McDonald, Kyle McPherson, Mark Melancon, Bryan Morris, Charlie Morton, Andy Oliver*, Stolmy Pimentel, Wandy Rodriguez*, Hunter Strickland, Tony Watson*, Duke Welker, Justin Wilson.* (* LHP)

• Morton will start the year on the DL. Burnett, Karstens, McDonald and Rodriguez will start; Locke and McPherson will likely battle for the fifth spot. Gomez is out of options and will have to pass through waivers to stay in the system; he was 14-16 /5.18 at Cleveland as a starter and may get a good look for the final rotation spot, too. Grilli, Melancon, Watson and Hughes are set in the bullpen, while Leroux, Mazzara and Morris are out of options, so have a foot up to fill out the relief corps. That would again leave the Bucs with one lefty out of the bullpen. The other guys are upper level prospects, with Black, Irwin and Wilson the closest to MLB-ready. Francisco Liriano may or may not join the list; only the Shadow knows - and he ain't telling!

Non-Roster Invitees (Pitchers - 8): Brooks Brown, Gerrit Cole, Erik Cordier, Kris Johnson*, Ryan Reid, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Waldrop, Mike Zagurski.* (* LHP)

• Cole and Taillon are elite prospects getting a taste of camp; Cole should be in Pittsburgh sometime this season. Brown, Cordier, Reid and Waldrop are upper level depth. Cordier has been an injury prone minor league starter who may be shifted to the pen; while Waldrop spent part of last season with the Twins. The lefties are Johnson, a minor league starter coming off a very good season in winter ball, while Zagurski has been in the show with the Phils and D-Backs, with a 6.13 ERA and a lot of walks and Ks. None should break camp with the team.

Active Roster (Catchers - 3): Russell Martin, Mike McKenry, Tony Sanchez.

• Martin and McKenry will be the 1-2 catchers for Pittsburgh, while Tony Sanchez will open the year at Indy.

Non-Roster Invitees (Catchers - 3): Lucas May, Carlos Paulino, Ali Soltis.

• All three will open the year in the minors; they're in camp to handle the pitching load rather than as prospects for the big league roster. May had been KC's AAA catcher for three seasons with a cup of coffee with the Royals in 2010, and so is likely to start at Indy with Sanchez. The next wave of Pirate catching is at Class A, led by Wyatt Mathison and Jin-De Jhang, so the Bucs aren't very deep at the position at the top levels.

Rotation Without Liriano And Beyond

Well, it looks like the Francisco Liriano roll of the dice will come about later in the season, if at all. According to reports, his on-again, off-again saga with the Bucs is currently at checkmate; the Pirates apparently want to bring him back on a minor league or maybe two-way deal until his broken wing heals, while Liriano wants a guaranteed contract.

Good luck with that, Cisco Kid, though a deal could be struck that's heavily backloaded with performance markers. Still, the chips are all on the FO's side of the table right now, and they'd like to keep their 40-man roster intact into camp rather than burn a spot for an iffy arm. But no matter how his long, strange road ends, his injury does help clarify the early starting rotation.

The Pirates will start with AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald and Jeff Karstens to open the season, but will have to settle into a five man staff by the second time around this year, as this April isn't sprinkled with its usual early glut of off days.

So we're back to the Jeff Locke - Kyle McPherson battle for the fifth spot. Locke is the second lefty the Pirates seek to balance the rotation; McPherson has more upside and could someday slot as a mid-rotation arm, although that day isn't today, but down the road. We'd lean toward Locke as the frontrunner if his spring performance is OK, both because he's a lefty and only has one option remaining; McPherson still has a pair in hand.

It's possible the loser could end up in the bullpen, but we think that's probably not going to happen. Aside from the relief corps already having an overload of candidates, both guys have more value to the Bucs as starters, so it would make sense to get the loser into a regular groove with steady work at Indy.

The staff shake-ups will come later in the year when guys start to become available. Charlie Morton and possibly Liriano will be back from injuries by mid-year, and Gerrit Cole and Justin Wilson are the two arms with the most upside at Indy. They could be looking at call-ups as the season grows older, though both will start the year with the Indians.

We're beginning to look at a rotation in transition. The kids who have been laboring on the farm are starting to grow up, and in the next couple of years should begin taking their turns in Pittsburgh.

AJ will be 37 in 2014, and in his 16th year of MLB ball. JK, with his health concerns, could be easily returned to the bullpen as a multi-role pitcher. Rodriguez is under control through this year and possibly next, depending on whether his option vests. J-Mac needs to show that he can be a consistent performer. So there will be openings, one way or another, as Cole, Jameson Taillon, McPherson, Wilson and the other handful of strong prospects approach the bigs in the next couple or three seasons.

The FO did a decent job of cobbling together a respectable rotation recently. But the time to fill the staff with home-grown arms is just peeping over the horizon.

Pitching Q&A

Some questions about the Pirate pitching as it now stands:

Will the Bucs keep trawling the market for another starter? We suspect not actively; they were looking for a mid-pack lefty who is a sinker/power pitcher. Chris Capuano has been mentioned and fits, but without Hanny to use as a lure, it's unlikely LA will dump him at a price the Bucs are willing to pay. Joe Saunders has also been mentioned, but he doesn't really fit the profile the Pirates are looking for. There's a slim chance Frankie Liriano ends up a Pirate, depending on the yet undisclosed severity of his injury, but it will be at a reduced rate and based on an incentive-based deal. Wonder what Shawn Marcum is looking for nowadays...?

Will James McDonald bounce back? 2012 was an outlier finish for J-Mic. But the Bucs might be wise to keep a little closer watch on his pitch count, and James could help his own cause by being more aggressive and trusting his fielders rather than looking for the punchout. Control and count seem to be his keys.

Are there too many back end pitchers in the rotation? Could be - Kyle McPherson, Jeff Locke and Andy Oliver, the main suspects for the Bucco back end, have given no indication that they're ready to step into a mid-level spot yet. They're all young, and as a group like to nibble. As the old adage goes, work quick and throw strikes, and if they follow that saw, they could become dependable. That's a big if.

Is help on the horizon? For once, the answer seems to be yes. Gerrit Cole could optimistically be ready this year, and Charlie Morton, who the FO has enough confidence in to nurse through another injury, should be back by July. Jameson Taillon has a 2014 ETA, and we still believe that Justin Wilson has the stuff to be a mid-rotation arm if he can quit fighting the strike zone. Phil Irwin fits into the back-ender-in-the-making mold. A couple more guys, notably Clay Holmes, Nick Kingham and Luis Heredia, will help keep the pipeline flowing.

Are Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon enough at the back end of the pen? It would seem, by their peripherals, that they should hold up. If not, Bryan Morris is a good late inning candidate to step into their spot, with Victor Black not too very far away.

The rest of the bullpen? It should be fine; the Bucs have made a slight change of direction by going after young fringe guys via minor deals than reeling in undervalued pitchers on the market. That's a more cost friendly direction, and if there's one thing the management has shown a good eye for evaluating during their tenure, it's relievers. Chris Leroux and Zach Stewart are swing men, along with Tony Watson, Jared Hughes, and Vin Mazzaro as bridge pitchers looking for 2013 spots.

Grilli Signs; Bullpen Takes Shape

The Buc bullpen got a little closer to its 2013 shape today when it was announced by everyone but the Pirates that Jason Grilli signed on again, inking a 2 year, $6.75M deal pending a physical. In his time with the Pirates, he's put up a 3-7-3/2.76 slash with 12.5 K/game rate.

It's good news because while there is some risk involved - Grilli is 36, and his flyball/homerun rate jumped while his groundball rate took a nosedive last year though he could still blow it by people - the Pirates needed a guy that misses bats, has had back-end success and can call on ten MLB campaigns worth of experience to share with a still pretty young bullpen. He may end up closing, and judging by last year, he's worth the shot - his eighth inning ERA/OBA was 3.04/.203; in the ninth, with much less work, it was 3.24/.241.

And while not guaranteed, it also looks like the beginning of the end in Pittsburgh for Joel Hanrahan. The big righty is in line for a $7M payday through arbitration, and on top of Grilli's deal, that $10M+ investment seems out of character for a Pirate bullpen. There hasn't been much market for Hanny yet, but he could either be packaged or traded for an equivalent starter's contract like LA's Chris Capuano, a player who the two teams have already discussed.

As for the makeup of the pen, Chris Resop is gone, but Jared Hughes, Tony Watson and Chris Leroux are back. Indy's Bryan Morris is out of options and should stick, too, although his lack of September work last season is a mystery to us. That leaves at least two spots open.

The Pirates have brought in Vin Mazzaro and Zach Stewart, both who will compete for a slot, and maybe Andy Oliver too, if they opt to add him to the pen mix rather than compete as a starter. The FA market should be tapped for another veteran back-ender like Kyle Farnsworth and/or a lefty like Mike Gonzalez.

Grilli's signing gives Pittsburgh some form to its 2013 bullpen, and they'll add another arm or two before camp. With Grilled Cheese wrapped up and and Russell Martin inked, now it's time to look for a starter...

A Starting Pitcher Next...

The Bucs got their catcher before the baseball meetings; now they're gonna have to get crackin' on lining up some arms to toss the ball to Russell Martin.

As of now, the sure things in the rotation are RHP AJ Burnett, who will be 36 next season, LHP Wandy Rodriguez, who will be 34, and RHP James McDonald, 28. AJ and Wandy have been fairly dependable throughout their careers; J-Mic has to figure out how to finish out a season. Gone are Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia and Erik Bedard.

At best, that leaves two rotation spots open and some needed depth building; most MLB teams like to be eight or nine deep in starters to begin the year.

Those two spots were filled last season by LHP Jeff Locke and RHP Kyle McPherson. Both had flashes of competence, but Locke was plagued by nibbling around the dish, falling into hitters counts and never lasting past six innings in six starts, four outings going five frames or less. McPherson was stronger, but began the 2012 year rehabbing a dead arm and was just pulled from winter ball with the same complaint. That leaves him an iffy candidate to take the hill thirty+ times in 2013.

And make no mistake - when building the back end of the rotation, the one thing a team likes to see is a guy who can eat some innings and not kill the bullpen, and neither Locke nor McPherson has shown that ability yet. So the FO has brought in a few once highly touted but now bargain bin pitchers to compete with them.

LHP Andy Oliver, 25, came over from Detroit. The big lefty pumps smoke and has a decent breaking ball, but has had huge problems locating. He's walked 21 in 31 major league IP, and in his minor league career has issued five free passes per nine innings. Oliver left Detroit's camp as the #5 starter, but ended up working most of the year in AAA Toledo.

RHP Zach Stewart, 26, was acquired from Boston. A third round pick in 2008, the sinker/slider pitcher has yet to translate his upside in either AAA or the show. The FO also brought in RHP Vince Mazzaro, 26, from KC. he was a third round selection in 2005, but has had more success working from the pen than as part of the rotation. All three players are on the 40-man roster, and Oliver and Stewart have an option remaining; Mazzaro doesn't.

Other guys the Pirates have that figure to enter the conversation sometime during the season are RHPs Gerritt Cole, Rick Van Den Hurk and Phil Irwin at Indy, along with Charlie Morton, who should be ready to take the hill after TJ surgery sometime during the summer. LHP Justin Wilson has the upside, once the Bucs decide whether his future lies in the rotation or as a back-end reliever.

So they have a small army of hurlers in contention for that fifth spot, but two questions remain - do they want a pair of unproven arms in the rotation, at least during the first three months of the year before Morton and Cole are ready, and do they have a fallback if McDonald can't get back on the bike?

That's going to require them to find at least one more arm with a track record. From what we've seen - and they've been associated with just about every third tier pitcher in the market, which tells us they're at least acting with some due diligence - these are the most likely candidates on the market:

LHP John Lannan, 28, was non-tendered by the Nats and is a player the Bucs have long eyed. The lefty has a 4.01 ERA over six seasons, but with an unwieldy 1.424 WHIP. Last year, Washington shipped him and his $5M salary to AAA, but called him up to replace Stephen Strasburg in September. In six starts, Lannan went 4-1/4.13 and lasted six frames per outing. He's made 30+ starts in three of the four seasons he was a regular rotation arm. With that durability and being a rotation-balancing lefty, our guess is that he's the most likely guy for Pittsburgh to be in on.

RHP Mike Pelfrey, 28, was non-tendered by the Mets. He's 6'7"; which of course tantalizes the Bucs, even if he's not a power pitcher, and has worked at least 184 innings from 2008-11 with a lifetime 4.36 ERA. On the other side of the coin, Scott Boras is his agent, and he had TJ surgery in April. Pelfrey said that he'd be ready by opening day, and is a guy the Bucs have been reported to have some interest in.

The dark horse is LHP Francisco Liriano, 29. Yah, he's thrown to 5.09 & 5.34 ERAs in last two years. But he's had a couple of very nice seasons as part of his resume and still has decent stuff. He intrigues more than a few teams, and the Bucs will check his availability after the market begins to take form when Zach Grienke and the upper level of pitchers settle on deals.

Other pitchers the Pirates have been mentioned as checking out are Milwaukee's Manny Parro and Atlanta's Jairs Jurrjens, though we think they have red flags that even the Bucs can't ignore. And there will be more arms coming free down the line when 40-mans are readjusted for future signings.

Shopping List - The Bullpen

The bullpen has been a group this management team has managed to do a pretty fair job of assembling year after year on the cheap. Already gone are Jason Grilli, Hisanori Takahashi, Chad Qualls, Juan Cruz, Daniel McCutchen and Evan Meek, and they're sure to be replaced by guys off the waiver wires and off the discount rack later in the hot stove season, as the Bucs continue to stick to their mantra of value.

Grilli will be the hardest arm to replace; he has swing-and-miss stuff and often faced the heart of the order in set-up situations before Hanny came on to claim the save in the ninth. The righty was a bargain at $1.1M in 2012, compiling a 3-7-3/2.76 slash in his Pittsburgh time with 127 K in 91-1/3 frames.

Building on that success, the 36 year old free agent will look for a multi year package - last season was his first seven figure payday in six full MLB seasons - and his agent says eight teams have shown interest in him, including the Red Sox.

Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors wrote that "the floor for Grilli is a one-year deal with a base salary in the $3-5MM range. I expect a two-year deal in the $10MM range, (since he won't be) tied to draft pick compensation. He’s pitching at an elite level and that’ll be reflected in his next contract." And that's steep for a team that doesn't like to tie up money in the bullpen.

His back end running mate, Joel Hanrahan, is almost certain to be traded this off-season. He's survived the last two deadlines, when his trade value would have been higher, only because the Pirates were improbably in contention and were buyers. But this is his last year of team control, and his salary in year three of arb is likely to approach the $7M mark.

The Bucs don't like to pay that amount for an entire bullpen, much less one arm. So for both payroll and team-building purposes, Hanny will likely move on and the Pirates should get a MLB player in return, though we're sure their game plan will be to look for someone that offers team control for awhile. He could, alone or maybe packaged, bring a young catcher to Pittsburgh.

The other returning reliever on thin ice is Chris Resop. He's been a fairly dependable middle man since being claimed, but is in arb and will probably earn $1.25M, maybe a smidge more, and the FO may consider that steep for his role.

Returning for sure are Jared Hughes, Tony Watson and Chris Leroux. Bryan Morris, Victor Black, Chris Beck and Duke Welker are all in the wings waiting for a shot, too, and maybe Justin Wilson and Hunter Strickland eventually. Morris, 25, is almost certain to make the club this spring; he's out of options and coming off a 2-2-5/2.67 slash at Indy with 79 K in 81 IP. In mystifying limited work during September, he whiffed six in five frames.

He and Black have a shot at becoming back enders, though we expect the Bucs to pull in a vet for the late innings as the off season wears down and the bargains begin to pop up. That's their MO and the time when they've inked pitchers like Octavio Dotel, Javier Lopez, Jose Veras and Juan Cruz, all who proved useful to various degrees. We're thinking they may kick the tires of Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Adams, Koji Uehara, Jason Frasor or Matt Lindstrom this off season.

The glaring hole again is the lack of a lefty, but that didn't seem to bother them a whole lot last year, and dependable non-set up southpaws are an expensive lot. But that problem will have to get in line behind finding back-enders, addressed most likely through minor league deals ala Doug Slaten, Justin Thomas, et al.

Whether through waivers or the market, the Bucs will cobble together their usual fire-sale pen, although it will be more challenging this season because of escalating costs and because they have to replace both their closer and set-up man.

Shopping List - Starting Pitching

Two dog days' collapses have kept the Pirates from dumping that 20-year old losing streak monkey off their backs. Enough good things happened to realize a few pieces are in place; enough bad things happened to highlight the tatters in the Jolly Roger.

The Bucs showed their hand in September, when 36 players on the forty man roster were in the dugout. So we have a small sampling of the internal options, and we'll take an early peek at potential outside fixes.

It all begins with starting pitching. AJ Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are both under contract and look to be the anchors of the 2013 rotation. AJ will be 36 next season and Wandy 34, so both are short-term fixtures in the scheme of things. And after that, the Pirates are the textbook riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

James McDonald will again be in the rotation, although his second half melt-down was absolutely Blassarian. Jeff Karstens has performed well as a four pitcher, but he's up for another round of arbitration. While logic dictates that the Pirates would be foolhardy to not tender him, his long list of injuries do allow for a possibility of being non-tendered, with a better chance of being tendered and traded, assuming that the FO's memory reaches back to the messy Matt Capps affair.

Charlie Morton is recovering from TJ surgery and won't be ready to go until late in the season. With the flashes he's shown, our guess is the Pirates will try to sign him to a friendly contract after tendering him; he's also in his arb years. Kevin Correia won't be back. That's not a surprise; but the fact he wasn't traded is. The Bucs claimed there were no takers on the market, but we'd wager he has his fair share lined up in the off season.

That leaves them with Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson as the minor league cavalry, and both showed flashes but without any consistency in September. Gerrit Cole is a possibility to get the call sometime in 2013, but will start at Indy. With all the question marks, the Pirates should look to add another veteran arm to the staff, either in the FA market or maybe through trade - it worked well enough with AJ and Wandy, and maybe lightning can strike twice; Aaron Harang/Chris Capuano of the Dodgers, James Shields/Jeremy Hellickson at Tampa, RA Dickey of the Mets, Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens and Ubaldo Jimenez/Justin Masterson at Cleveland are all reported to be on the block.

FA's this season are Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, Scott Feldman, Jeff Francis, Zack Greinke, Jeremy Guthrie, Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Kyle Lohse, Francisco Loriano, Shaun Marcum, Brian McCarthy, Kevin Millwood, Roy Oswalt, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Saunders, Tim Stauffer, Carlos Villanueva and Chris Young.

We can scratch Greinke, Jackson (he turned down the Bucs last year), Lohse, Kuroda, and Sanchez from that list. But the good news for the Bucs is that they are the cream of a not very lush crop; there are a lot of mid-rotation guys who are available. Some will generate some heat, but others will be looking for affordable deals.

The Bucs are usually mum about who they target, and with their FA rejection rate, no wonder. But don't be surprised if they don't at least test the market for an upper second tier guy like Marcum, Haren or Saunders, or take an upside flyer on McCarthy if the market doesn't overheat. If a catcher busts the Bucco budget, though, the Bucs will search for a back-ender ala KC; Guthrie has already been bantered about as a possible target.

And the Bucs like to have a left-handed presence on the mound, and now Wandy and maybe Jeff Locke are it going into 2013. So they'll look at Francis, Saunders and Loriano (bad peripherals, good K rate) along with guys like Dallas Braden.

It'll be a big-time hot stove sidebar to see how they build next year's staff. They may have enough money to bring in a second-level arm, assuming Hanny is traded and the only major piece they pick up among position players is a catcher to split time with Mike McKenry. But the FO may be comfortable with the top of the order, especially with Gerrit Cole on a fast track, and may just fill in the back-end.

Pirate Bullpen - 2013

Last season, the bridge and back end of the Bucco bullpen was its strength, with Hanny, Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson and Chris Resop all doing a pretty decent job of keeping the last three innings clean. But that old gang is quite likely to be broken up next season.

Joel Hanrahan, 31, is in his last arbitration year and on borrowed time. Being in the race at the trade deadline the last two years was his reprieve; the Pirates couldn't move him while they were in contention without risking a clubhouse and fan revolt. An argument could be made that they held on to him too long, given the team's summer swoons; he picked up 61 saves before August in 2011-12, but just 15 in August and September during those campaigns.

In his final arb season, he's probably in line to see his $4.1M contract jump into the $7M range for 2013. Add in his value as a trade piece, combined with some Pirate holes that the market isn't likely to satisfy, and all the tea leaves point to his departure this winter.

Jason Grilli, 35, was pulled from the Philly farm system in late July 2011 - and that's one FA signing Neal Huntington should get a gold star for - and put up a 2.76 ERA, 1.161 WHIP and 12.5 K/per nine working 92 outings covering 91-1/3 IP. His 2012 deal was worth $1.1M, and he'll get a lot more expensive now that he's in his walk year.

The Pirates have a pair of options regarding Grilli - either let him hit the marketplace, where they are unlikely to compete, or offer him a deal to become the closer on the assumption that Hanny is history. The fact that he often faced the heart of the opponent's order would bode well for a switch to closer, while his age and the Pirates reluctance to put a large hunk of the payroll into the bullpen work against his return to the club.

Jared Hughes, 27, is in line to be promoted to the back end. He had a breakout year as a set-up guy, with a 2.85 ERA and 1.150 WHIP. Hughes did have a pair of saves and finished 20 games in 2012, but he's probably better suited to a set-up role. He averages 6 K/per nine but with a 60% ground ball rate, which is why he's brought in so often in mid-inning, runners-on situations. Hughes is also under team control for a long time, not reaching arbitration until 2015.

Tony Watson, 27, is another converted starter, ala Hughes, who has put up a pair of solid seasons with Pittsburgh. He's a lefty, but with a bit of a reverse split so he doesn't fall into the LOOGY mold. He hasn't been the workhorse that Hughes has, working just 53-1/3 frames in 2012, but has a much better K rate of 8.9 per nine and a 1.125 WHIP. Both have career FIPs of around four. Watson will remain a bridge and situational arm just because the Pirate don't have southpaws in the pen, so by default, he's the match-up guy. And like Hughes, he's team friendly, not reaching his arb years until 2015.

Chris Resop, 29, has been competent as a mid-inning guy, appearing in 159 games over three seasons with a 3.88 ERA. But his K rate dropped to 5.6/nine in 2012 after 10+/nine in 2010-11 (he issued two fewer walks per nine, too, so it may have been a trade-off). But he made $850K last season, and is up for arb this year for the second time, looking at $1M contract or maybe better. That makes him iffy for 2013.

The Pirates do have a couple of probable internal additions in Bryan Morris, 25, and Chris Leroux, 28, both righties who are out of options for 2013. Leroux has made a couple of stops in Pittsburgh, with a 3.95 ERA and 1.293 WHIP, both tolerable figures for a long man/spot starter. Morris, the last man standing from the Jay Bay trade, was effective in a handful of September outings. He whiffed six in five innings, matching his strikeout-per-inning pace at Indy, where he was a back end reliever. The possibility that Justin Wilson, 25, is flipped to the pen exists, too. Evan Meek is out of the picture; he just declared for free agency last week.

Victor Black, 24, and Duke Welker, 26, a pair of power arms, are also in the upper levels and should be considered as possibilities sometime during the 2013 shakeout.

There's a couple of holdovers, too - Chad Qualls, Hisanori Takahashi, and Daniel McCutchen, who was called up briefly. Qualls and McCutchen are longshots at claiming a 2013 position, while Takahashi and his $4.2M contract will be shed.

But we don't expect the Bucs to be shorthanded in the pen next season. The FO has a history of cobbling together a viable pen and there could be several new faces added to the relief corps in 2013. The concern is that the backend could lose both Hanny and Jason Grilli, and they may prove to be a difficult pair of arms to replace, especially for a team that by design won't tie up any serious money in the bullpen.

Pirate Starting Pitching - 2013

For all the youth movement Pittsburgh is suppose to be in the midst of, the only sure things in next year's rotation are oldies AJ Burnett, 35 (16-10, 3.51), and Wandy Rodriguez, 33 (12-13, 3.76). Both are under contract for next season and have a five year history of eating innings, so they should anchor the staff.

But after that, there are nothing but questions. James McDonald, 27 and entering his first arb year, was a Jeckyl and Hyde guy on the mound, killing before the All-Star break and dying afterward. He's too young and too talented when he's dealing to give up on, especially as Pirates insist that his second half problems weren't mechanical, but had to do with his mental approach. He's a key swingman in 2013, and which pitcher shows up will be a pretty good indicator on how successful the staff will be in the coming campaign.

Jeff Karstens, 30, is another pitcher whose Pirate career could be at a crossroads as the FO has expressed some concerns about his ability to get through a season. This year, he worked just 90-2/3 frames to go with career high 162-1/3 innings and nine wins in 2011. He made $3.1M last season, and will probably earn north of $4M next year through arb. JK has some value, so the Pirates will likely either sign or tender him, but their lack of confidence portends a trade in the off season. Some feel that his role could be filled just as effectively by Chris Leroux. But as shown after his injury, he does leave a hole in the staff when he's out, so we'd suppose the management discussions are back-and-forth on his future.

Kevin Correia is the only rotation guy who will definitely move on; the unpleasantness caused by his move to the bullpen in August and his replaceable performance makes a rematch the longest of long shots. Well, also Eric Bedard, but he wasn't coming back, either.

The Pirates spent a lot of time for a team that was allegedly in a pennant race auditioning Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson. Locke, 24, has a dozen starts over two seasons for the Pirates with just one win and a 5.81 ERA to show for the effort. He's frustrating, and like McDonald may need a mental rather than physical adjustment to succeed. A control pitcher in the minors, he's a nibbler in the show, tossing too many pitches out of the zone and falling behind too many hitters. As a result, he's made it past five innings just once. If the Pirates can get Locke to trust his stuff and be more aggressive in the strike zone, he can fill the back end of the rotation capably. If not, it's back to Indy.

McPherson, 24, shot through the system this year after missing the start with a dead arm. He uses his 93 MPH fastball to set up his off speed deliveries, mainly a curve and an occasional change. In the tiny sample size of 26-1/3 innings, he put up an ERA of 2.73, though his FIP was around four, as he left a lot of runners (87%) stranded, and had a 7:2 K to walk ratio. The 2011 Pirate Minor league Pitcher of the Year has a pretty strong chance of breaking with the team as a back-end starter, even if he pitches to his FIP.

Three other guys at Indy have a chance of joining the team sometime during the season. Top gun Gerritt Cole, 22, will start the season with the Tribe and could progress to the show sometime in the summer. That's a maybe; he only got one start at AAA in 2012.

Another is Justin Wilson, 25, the only highly rated lefty in the system. His problem is with command; the plate often has a different zip code than his deliveries. Our guess is that the Pirates will work him as a starter at Indy to begin the season; they would love to have another southpaw to throw at PNC Park to take the Clemente Wall out of play. But if he continues to struggle throwing strikes, this may be the season they finally decide to stick him in the bullpen permanently.

A longer shot is RHP Phil Irwin, 25, who split the season between Altoona and Indy, getting four starts for the Tribe. After missing some early season time with a lower arm injury, he showed enough to be on the radar screen and could pop up in mid-season.

Jameson Taillon, 20, is on everyone's lips, but he'll start at Altoona, making an arrival in Pittsburgh before 2014 possible but unlikely. Luis Heredia, 18, is a year or two behind him. Fans often forget just how young these guys are; they are the future, but not the immediate future. They have some other promising arms in the pipeline, but at the lower levels and none are can't-miss types. That's the downside of putting all your eggs in the high school basket during the draft.

Charlie Morton, 29, is another guy that Pittsburgh has on the roster; his timeline after TJ surgery is mid-season. He's out of options and in the middle of his arb years, with a 2012 $2.445M contract. The odds are that the Pirates will try to sign him to a two-way deal; the chances of him being physically ready to pitch at an MLB level aren't that great in 2013.

The Pirates will poke the market for another arm, preferably a southpaw. Lefties are hard to come by, and effective ones even more rare; Joe Saunders sticks out, but after his year at Baltimore could be a hot item. Hey...maybe they'll bring Paul Maholm back! But it's tough to judge what free agent goodies will be available until early November, when the tenders and options are decided, so we'll revisit the list after it's set. Guys whom the club was interested in last year who should be FA's this season are Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson and Francisco Loriano.

The Bucs aren't deep in starting pitching; an injury or two, especially with their anchors both in their mid-thirties and their young guns not ready for prime time yet, could devastate the staff. So we think they'll actively look for another pitcher during the off season, whether through trade or free agency.