Heading to Camp: Starting Pitchers, Eight Deep

Gone are AJ Burnett, JA Happ and Charlie Morton; the 2016 Bucs rotation is in shake up mode. But having Gerrit Cole and Frankie Liriano as anchors helps the redo as should Jon Niese, who has a resume as a solid rotation guy. Jeff Locke is still trying to find the path to consistency, while Ryan Vogelsong is looking for a bounce back. Both those back-enders will be working with the shadow of Tyler Glasnow looming. And we wouldn't be surprised if a Justin Masterson type ended up joining the club before camp. The staff isn't deep at all; an early glitch could spell big problems.

There are two similarities in the top four of the rotation; all are ground ball guys, and all are under team control beyond this season. A quick look:

• Gerrit Cole: Cole, 25, went 19-8/2.60, posting career highs with 32 starts and 208 innings while notching 202 strikeouts last season. The performance earned him his first All Star nod. He's a horse, but to reach the Cy Young level, he probably needs to add one more pitch to his fastball/slider one-two and become a bit more effective in pitching to contact (for a power arm, he has a career 49% ground ball rate). He's easily the top dog of the rotation, and just a gnat's eyelash away from being elite. Cole should be around for a while, Scott Boras willing; he doesn't start his arb seasons until next year.

Gerrit Cole (photo Getty Images)

•  Francisco Liriano: Frankie, 32, has settled comfortably into the two spot, first behind AJ and now Gerrit. In his three Bucco seasons, he's won 35 games, pitched to a 3.26 ERA with 9.6 K/per nine IP and a 1.214 WHIP.  Like Cole, he could stand to be more efficient with his pitch count; his control is much improved over his past years, but still lands him in hot water when he needs early strikes against disciplined lineups. A healthy campaign would also be a plus, though he's never been the workhorse type - in his 12 MLB seasons, he's never broken the 200 IP barrier. Frankie still offers a killer slider with a 50%+ ground ball rate and is signed through the 2017 season.
• Jon Niese: The Bucs got a workmanlike rotation arm (113 starts, 3.65 ERA from 2012-15) in Niese, 29,  who was the odd man out for a Mets staff featuring Bartolo and the young guns. He's unlikely to match the AJ/JA production, but is a nice upgrade over the up-and-down Charlie Morton and as a career 50% ground ball guy, he fits right into the Bucco scheme. Last year, he threw more off speed stuff and fewer fastballs than his norm, and even dabbled with a slider. We think Uncle Ray may apply the KISS formula to his tool kit this year and feature his sinker and cutter. Niese has two club options, worth $10M & $11M for 2017-18, so he's under team control for three seasons.
• Jeff Locke: Locke, 28, is working with Ray Searage on simplifying his motion; we hope something turns the trick. He's put together stretches of very nice ball - he's 25-24 over the past three seasons - but can't find day-in, day-out consistency. Locke has cut his walk rate down in the past couple of years, but still has a tendency to nibble rather than attack hitters. True to form, he's good at inducing grounders, with a 51% rate. He's running out of time to find the answer; the farm arms are about knocking on Pittsburgh's door. The Redstone Rocket has two more years of arb after signing for $3.025M this season.

Time for Jeff to cut bait (photo Dave Arrigo/Pirates)

• Ryan Vogelsong: Vogelsong, 38, was an out-of-the-blue signing. In the past three years, he's been anywhere from meh to blah, doesn't get ground balls, and his K and walk ratios are ordinary. But the Pirates are quite good at identifying guys who are a tweak away from competence, especially sinker ball tossers, and we assume that's the case here. V-Song was mostly OK until the dog days last season after a rough April, but he's still the most likely guy to be looking for a chair when the Tyler Glasnow musical chairs shuffle begins. He's inked to a one year/$2M deal.

The cavalry:

• Tyler Glasnow: Glasnow, 22, throws a mid-nineties heater to go with a plus curve, and is the Bucs top prospect along with being a consensus top 25 MiLB player. But he only has eight starts at Indy, and the Pittsburgh FO likes to season their guys before their call (and keep that pesky service time clock from ticking). Starting him at Indy, though, does ring more of polishing up than saving dollars; Tyler has walked 4+/9 innings in his minor league career, and needs work on the finer points like holding runners. If all goes to plan, he should be a mid-June to All-Star break addition to the staff.
• Kyle Lobstein:  Lobstein, 26, was a depth guy for Detroit, and may be in line to be the sixth starter in Pittsburgh, at least for a couple or three months. In 2014 and early 2015, he tossed to a 4.34 ERA as a Tiger back-ender with an 88 MPH heater and a cutter, change and hook in his arsenal. He had shoulder inflammation that landed him on the DL for three months and was basically a BP pitcher after returning, so his arm strength is an obvious question mark. He was a second rounder in 2008 as a high school hurler, and the Bucs sent cash to the Tigers for his services after he was DFA'ed. Lobstein, who has two remaining options and just one year of MLB service time, will likely begin at Indy to stay stretched out if needed unless he's carried north as a long man in the pen.
• Juan Nicasio: Our guesstimate has Nicasio, 29, working as the multi-role guy from the pen beloved by Clint. But the Pirates have already said that they're planning on stretching him out as a starter in camp, so he remains in the mix if the razor thin staff takes a hit early on. JC was only converted to reliever full time last year and has 70 MLB starts under his belt, although, as generally the case, all his pitches picked a couple of ticks from the pen. The Bucs signed him to a one year/$3M deal after he posted a 1-3/ 3.86 slash with a save for the Dodgers in 52 relief appearances (one start). He averaged 10K per nine featuring a heater that averages 95 and touches 98, offset by five walks per game. Nicasio has one more arb year left.

Next Up - Heading to Camp: Starting Pitching - Arms On the Way & Depth

2016 Pirates: Starting Pitching

The rotation has Cole Train and Frankie returning at the top end with Charlie and maybe Jeff Locke at the back end. That leaves a hole to be filled in the middle as AJ has taken to pasture after 17 seasons and his mid-term replacement, JA Happ, is a free agent.

The four returnees are under team control - Liriano & Morton are under contract, Cole is a year away from arbitration and Locke is in his first arb season. Both Charlie and Jeff come with performance issues. Morton has $8M left on his deal and will at least open the year with the Bucs. There's some debate whether or not Jeff will even get tendered, but with an expected $3.5M arb hit and the thin depth, we'd be a little surprised if he wasn't back, especially with his peripherals being in line for a fifth starter.

Cole Train returns (Bowman Black 2012)

AJ and his leadership are gone, tho we speculate that the Bucs may find an organizational spot for him if he so desires. Jay was wildly effective as a Bucco (7-2, 1.85 ERA, 9.8 K/9), and the talk is he may land, or at least seek, an Eddie Volquez-type deal on the market, 2 years/$20M. It's a dice roll whether he fits into the Pirate payroll comfort zone. Last year's spot starter, Vance Worley, has already been cut loose and claimed by Baltimore.

Internally, the Pirates are in a bit of turmoil. Tyler Glasnow spent some time at Indy, and in eight starts was mostly good (2.20 ERA, 48 K in 41 innings), but still showed some wildness & awareness issues, and certainly will require a little more top-level MiLB seasoning. Jameson Taillon & Casey Sadler may be ready for camp, but won't head north with the club.

Taillon hasn't pitched since 2013 in the Arizona Fall League, going under the knife for TJ and hernia surgeries. The good news is that he's throwing and should be on track for camp, but we'd expect the Pirates to be careful with him this year; we'd be hard pressed to project even a September sighting after missing two full campaigns. Sadler is a back-ender who hasn't pitched since June and is coming back from a platelet rich plasma injection for "forearm tightness." He looks like a potential depth guy for 2016.

Young gun Nick Kingham made just six starts at Indy before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May, so he's not on this year's radar. Brandon Cumpton had TJ surgery in May and shoulder surgery in September; he's out for the year. Angel Sanchez showed some potential but he had September TJ surgery. So except for Glasnow and perhaps Sadler, the Pirate prospects are all in various stages of climbing in and out of the tub in 2016.

The good news is that this off season features a small horde of free agent pitchers for NH and gang to go after. We can start by eliminating the stars of the show - Johnny Cueto, Zack Grienke, Cliff Lee, David Price and Jordan Zimmermann; Pittsburgh never fishes in those waters.

But if they're looking for a more-or-less proven mid-rotation guy, this list is available: Brett Anderson, Wei Yin Chen, Marco Estrada, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, John Lackey, and Mike Leake, some more upper-end (ie, expensive) than the others.

NH - decisions, decisions... (photo via Amherst)

It's also possible that they could go the one-year rebuild route, with Uncle Ray's strong track record of restoring careers, with once solid guys fallen on hard times like Doug Fister, Dillon Gee, Mat Latos & Jeff Samardzija, depending on how the market plays out.

You can never discount Pirate Plan C - the signing from right field that brought the Bucs Jay Happ, Edinson Volquez and Vanimal to carry the load. And additional names will be added to the list as options are refused, other guys non-tendered and 40-man rosters trimmed.

For sure, it'll prove an interesting time to restock the pitching. Gerrit Cole is the only arm under long-term control, and he begins arb in 2017 for his first grab at the big-money ring. There are a couple of guys in the pipeline - Glasnow, Taillon & Kingham are projected big league arms, while Sanchez, Steven Brault & Trevor Williams may or may not pan out as the innings roll along.

But that's the future. For this upcoming campaign, we're sold on Frankie and Cole Train; the rest of the staff all carry some heavy baggage with them. We'd expect the FO to go hard at Happ and add at least one more arm to the staff before camp opens. It should be a good year to play the market; the sheer number of hurlers available may help depress the going rate some. So fire up the hot stove - the winter games are about to begin.

Pirates Add Trevor Williams, Jorge Rondon: The 411

The Pirates first move of the year was picking up righty Trevor Williams, 23, from Miami for righty Richard Mitchell, 20, who tossed in the GCL.

Williams, from Arizona State, was the Marlins' second-round pick (#44 overall) in 2013 out of Arizona State. He pitched for AA Jacksonville (7-8/4.00) and had a cup of coffee with AAA New Orleans (0-2/2.57 in three starts). He should open the coming campaign at Indy. In three seasons in the minors, his line was 15-19/3.35. While not a big K guy - he averaged less tham seven whiffs per nine - he is a ground ball machine.

Trevor Williams (photo Mark LoMaglio/Tampa Yankees)

John Sickels' report on him is "Listed at 6-3, 230, the 23-year-old Williams features a fastball that tops in the low-90s to mix with a curve, slider, and change-up. He throws strikes and is durable but none of his pitches project as outstanding or overpowering. His best attributes are control and durability, giving him a shot at being a fourth or fifth starter."

Vince Lara-Cinisomo of Baseball America thinks a little more highly of him. "A sum-of-his-parts pitcher, Williams’ polish and cerebral approach help him overcome the lack of a plus pitch. He does a good job keeping the ball low, allowing just 14 homers in 309 pro innings. He throws both a four- and two-seam fastball from a drop-and-drive delivery and mixes in a curve and slider, although the organization wants him to settle on one of those. The curveball showed the most promise, flashing plus. With the depth and power of his curveball improving, Williams projects as a mid-rotation arm as soon as 2016."

Mitchell hasn't shown much as a Pirate, but apparently Jim Benedict saw something he liked about the youngster. Maybe he represents a hit-or-miss lottery pick on the part of the Fish. At any rate, he wasn't one of the Pirate projectables, and he did bring back a potentially useful arm in Williams. With Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham & Casey Sadler returning from injury and Brandon Cumpton & Angel Sanchez out for the year, Williams joins Tyler Glasnow to provide a little young pitching depth for the organization later this season.

The Pirates also claimed Venezuelan righty Jorge Rondon off waivers from the Orioles. He was DFA'ed to make roster room for Vance Worley, so it's all in the family.

Rondon put up a 3-1-1/2.23 ERA slash over 60-2/3 IP in AAA last year for two teams (he started the season in the Rockies' organization), with 50K and 19 BB. He has a workmanlike career AAA line of 24-48-39/3.03, 6.9 K/9, and 4 BB/9 over four seasons. Rondon was converted from a swingman in 2011 and has been used as a set up guy and occasional closer since.

Jorge Rondon (photo Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press)

He hasn't gotten much work at the major league level, and with pretty good reason. His line in 15-1/3 MLB innings is 0-1/12.33 with a WHIP of 2.478 (28 hits, two homers) and ten walks to go with just nine whiffs. Rondon has put up a zero in only four of his 11 big league appearances, with the look of a AAAA poster child all over him.

It's not that he doesn't have tools; his fastball, both four and two seam, averages 95 with some sink and he's touched triple figures. His slider clocks in at 87, and he's trying to develop at least a show-me change up. But for that stuff, he's never been a big strikeout guy and his control has been erratic; some compare him in a way to Charlie Morton, who some days has all the movement in the world but no idea where the ball is going to end up sixty feet later.

He's out of options, so Ray Searage will have to get him up to speed in a hurry. It's been done before, with the most recent example being Arquimedes Caminero (10.80 ERA in 2014 with 5+ walks per game), but that's the exception rather than the rule. So we'll see if he makes it to camp and then through it, or if he's just the first of the 2016 off-season reliever grab bags.