Parity: Show Me the Money...

Parity, schmarity. In the past few seasons, MLB has done all it can to tighten the rules so that small revenue clubs like the Bucs and their brethern have to scuffle even more to keep the pipeline flowing.

The Pirates broke the camel's back in the draft by overslotting Josh Bell. The Pirates picked Bell in the second round (61st overall) of the 2011 draft, although the high schooler told the clubs he wouldn't sign because he had a rock solid commitment to Texas. But the FO was pesistent, took its best shot, and Bell and the Pirates agreed to a contract with a $5M signing bonus shortly before the deadline, the highest bonus ever paid for a player drafted in the second round. In fact, the Pirates gave out a record $17M in signing bonuses to that class, or the equivalent of what you'd pay for one elite FA pitcher.

The grumbling brought about a cap on the amount spent on Top 10 picks, with the amount slotted for a player lost if he didn't sign. So the days of the overslot are gone, a Pittsburgh ploy that landed guys like OF Robbie Grossman (6th round -2008, flipped to the Astros as part of the Wandy Rodriguez deal), RHP Tyler Glasnow (5th round 2011 - $600K), RHP Clay Holmes (9th round 2011 - $1.2M) plus some hefty early round candy spread out to upper tier selections (Gerritt Cole; $8M as first overall in 2011) and generous payments to mid-round HS players.

It bit them in 2012 when RHP Mark Appel fell in their laps, but the Bucs were limited in their ability to negotiate with him by the newly imposed cap system. The offer he reportedly rejected from the Astros that year was equivalent to to Pittsburgh's entire draft pool.

There is a flip side to this; the larger market teams, with the support of the MLBPA, felt like revenues should be spent on major league payrolls, not the draft, which is an argument that led to caps in the NBA and NFL. Another is that if teams like the Pirates continued to be aggressive players in the overslot game, the big boys would eventually join in the fun and elbow them out.

An added benefit to the clubs that can afford offers is a chance to really rub the small market teams noses into it. Because New York and Boston can afford to extend qualifying offers, if they're rejected, the Yankees will have five fraft picks before the Pirates have two; the Red Sox will have four.

Another thing to watch is whether any traction is gained on adding Latino players to the draft. They've already capped the amount that can be spent on those FAs. The Pirates seemed to have worked around that in the early going - time will tell - but would lose a fruitful alternate player source, one that's supplied them with Starling Marte and guys like Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson and Luis Heredia if the international players are added to the draft pool.

The free agent qualifying system has always been a thorn to the smaller revenue clubs, but some managed a work-around by dealing for top players at the deadline and then offering them the qualifier at the end, secure in the knowledge that they were looking for greener pastures after the season. That loophole was removed; now only players that spent a full season with a club can receive an offer.

The offer is based on the average of the top 125 contracts; it was $13.3M in 2012 and $14.1M this season.  So it's a bit pricy, although probably fair for the players involved, although for a guy like Kyle Lohse, not always. If the player accepts, he gets a year at the offered salary; if he turns it down, the team that loses him gets a sandwich pick and the team that signs him loses its highest pick (the top ten picks are protected, and of course there's no draft shuffle if he signs with his old team.)

This is a great improvement over the old Elias based "A & B free agent" system that led some players to a tacit agreement that they wouldn't be given an offer; most guys in this position are coming off good years and are looking for multi-year contracts, and a first round pick on top of a juicy agreement was often a deal killer. Most smaller revenue teams have countered by locking up their star players as well as they can with early deals through arbitration and the opening season or two of free agency to keep them off the market and in the home unis for a couple of extra seasons.

There are only two drawbacks. One is due to the inequality of revenues; Boston and the Yankees both gave out three qualifying offers, while teams with payrolls like the Pirates would be suicidal to tie up $42M in three players. Still, that's a market inequity, and that will always be in play.

On the other of the coin is the loss of the draft pick for signing a top gun, which takes development teams like Pittsburgh out of the hunt for elite FA, even if the financial resources are available. That could be fixed quite simply. Continue to give the team that loses a player their sandwich pick as compensation, but don't penalize the team that signed him. That should open up the marketplace to some added competition.

The Pirate model that was used by Neal Huntington to rebuild the system has eroded in the past couple of seasons; the way of all major sports now is to funnel money to the players with resumes, not the rookies. That's especially true of baseball, whose draftees take years to develop. And revenue roadblocks will continue; the Pirates and teams of their ilk with never be able to afford the posting fee for Japanese players, the crazy money for Cuban players, signing their veteran stars or the elite FA crop.

So that's the challenge ahead for Pittsburgh, Oakland, Tampa and the gang. The road is going to get rockier in the years ahead; the MLB is closing the ways the small revenue teams used to game the system. So unless some truer form of revenue sharing, especially of media rights, or a hard team salary cap is somewhere near the horizon, they'll have to continue to adapt develop new player acquisition strategies  to keep up with the big boys.

Boston, LA...Huntington's Go-To Teams

It seems like every year since Neal Huntington has been GM that the Bucs, Red Sox and Dodgers have something brewing, whether it's a deal, an exchange of minor leaguers, FA signings or whatever; all three teams have a sharp eye on the others' systems. Ever since the Jason Bay trade that involved the three clubs in 2008, at least a pair of transactions have occurred between the teams every following season:

Boston:

• 12/26/2012 - Pittsburgh traded RHP Joel Hanrahan and 2B Brock Holt for 2B Ivan De Jesus, RHP Mark Melancon, RHP Stolmy Pimentel and LF Jerry Sands.
• 11/28/2012 - Pittsburgh traded RHP Kyle Kaminska (PTBNL) for RHP Zach Stewart.
• 11/2/2012 - Boston signed free agent UT Drew Sutton. 
• 6/7/2012 - Pittsburgh claimed UT Oscar Tejeda.
• 5/12//2012 - Pittsburgh purchased 1B Jeff Larish's contract. 
• 1/3/2012 - Boston signed free agent SS Pedro Ciriaco.
• 12/7/2011 - Pittsburgh signed free agent LHP Erik Bedard.
• 12/14/2011 - Pittsburgh signed free agent LHP Kris Johnson.
• 11/13/2011 - Boston signed free agent LHP Justin Thomas
• 6/13/2011 - Pittsburgh traded for C Mike McKenry for cash/PTBNL.
• 5/31/2010 - Pittsburgh traded C Josue Peley for OF Jonathan Van Every.
• 12/1/2010 - Pittsburgh signed free agent C Dusty Brown.
• 1/20/2010 - Boston signed free agent 2B Ray Chang.
• 7/22/2009 - Pittsburgh traded 1B Adam LaRoche for SS Argenis Diaz and RHP Hunter Strickland.
• 1/27/2009 - Boston signed free agent C Carlos Maldonado. 
• 7/31/2008 - Pittsburgh traded OF Jason Bay for RHP Craig Hansen and OF Brandon Moss. 

Boston has got some big boys from Pittsburgh - Jay Bay, Adam LaRoche, and Hanny - as salary dumps. Pittsburgh has got a bunch of unrealized upside in return. Mike McKenry and Eric Bedard are the only Bosox refugees that had any impact, and Bedard was a FA. Brandon Moss had a breakout year; unfortunately, it was in Oakland.

Mark Melancon has a chance to be a key contributor in 2013, while Sands and Stewart both are possibilities to break camp this year. Pimentel is intriguing but running out of time, and Strickland landed on the 40-man roster.

LA Dodgers:

• 12/26/12 - Pittsburgh traded for OF Jerry Sand & IF Ivan DeJesus (from Boston, but both were basically pass-throughs from the LA system).
• 12/21/2012 - LA signed free agent 3B Dallas McPherson.
• 11/19/2012 - LA signed free agent 1B Nick Evans.
• 12/13/2011 - LA signed free agent RHP Jose Ascanio. 
• 11/10/2011- Pittsburgh signed free agent C Rod Barajas (he replaced Russell Martin in LA).
• 4/26/2011 - Pittsburgh claimed OF Xavier Paul off waivers (Jerry Sands was called up to replace him in LA).
• 11/22/2010 - LA signed free agent LHP Dana Eveland.
• 11/11/2010 - LA signed free agent C Hector Gimenez.
• 7/31/2010 - Pittsburgh traded RHP Octavio Dotel for RHP James McDonald and LF Andrew Lambo.
• 4/15/2009 - Pittsburgh traded RHP Eric Krebs and RHP Harvey Garcia for OF Delwyn Young.
• 2/26/2009 - LA signed free agent IF Doug Mientkiewicz.
• 1/16/2009 - LA signed free agent RHP Ron Belisario (who's been on the restricted list more times than Hannibal Lecter). 
• 7/31/2008 - Pittsburgh traded OF Jason Bay for INF Andy LaRoche and RHP Avery (Bryan) Morris.  

LA won the first round, getting Manny Ramirez's hot stick. After that, Pittsburgh has found their catchers, for better or worse, as free agents previously employed by the Dodgers. It was another City of Angels' win when they allowed Barajas to walk; AJ Ellis did a fine job for them at $490 K, while Barajas collected $4M for a pretty forgettable season. It's quite the catcher's merry-go-round with LA: Barajas replaced Russell Martin in LA, who the Bucs just signed, and Ellis replaced Barajas, who Martin has just replaced in Pittsburgh. Got that straight?   

But it all evened out with the Dotel-for-McDonald trade. LA got 18 innings from Octavio, while the Pirates have a starter who's had a couple of late-year meltdowns but has also been very good for long stretches.

The Future Approaches

Hey, it doesn't take a baseball lifer to see that 2010 was the year the Pirates would finally transition from a never-ending cattle call into the core of the team the suits have long envisioned.

All the guys we've seen with their foot in the door - Andrew McCutchen, Steve Pearce, Neil Walker, Brad Lincoln, Jose Tabata, and yes, soon Pedro Alvarez, are finally getting their chance.

Oh, it won't make for any better baseball in the short run; too many guys learning their craft at once makes for a rough genesis. But for once, the swirling mist is forming into something solid that we can all see. By 2011, the starting lineup should be consistent, and by 2012, they could lose their baby teeth and bare their fangs.

A guarantee? No way; look at all the "can't-miss" flops Pittsburgh has pegged its hopes on that did miss; remember Brandon Moss? But the lineup's drawn-from-a-hat days should be over.

For one thing, the batting order should be settled. Tabata leading off, Walker next (and right now, Walker is the two-hole guy and should be, given the make-up of the team, but ideally he'd be in a better RBI spot), McCutchen third, Garrett Jones and Alvarez in the middle, Dewey sixth, Pearce seventh, and Cedeno ahead of the pitcher sounds like a fairly stable and sustainable order.

We think Jeff Clement will be back, and can see him and Pearce platooning at first. Otherwise, the team should have an everyday lineup, based on the big if that the puppies perform as predicted.

Being able to pull guys like Lasting Milledge and Andy LaRoche off the bench (and why they haven't been drilling him as a utility infielder all year with Pedro looming large is one of the team's great management mysteries) is a big plus, and should help mitigate the inevitable growing pains that will surely come.

The fielding behind the pitch-to-contact staff should improve, too, both physically and mentally. Tabata and McCutch can cover some acreage in the pasture, allowing Gary Varsho to plot even more exotic shifts, while Walker and Pearce are infield ball-snagging machines. And given time to play together as a unit, the invisible game of positioning, cutoffs and communication can only get better.

There are holes to be filled for sure; right handed power, an everyday banger at first and a steadier shortstop than the competent but streaky Cedeno top the list, and there's no one on the farm to fill those job descriptions, at least in the near term.

They could and should be looking to move Ryan Doumit, too. His bat doesn't play well enough to make up for his glove and his health is always a question. They may take their chances with Jason Jaramillo and Eric Kratz or a free agent during the 2011 campaign with the hope that Tony Sanchez becomes a fast-tracker.

They may also have to do some shifting if Pedro does move to first sooner rather than later, but that's a question that will be answered down the line rather than now.

The next wave of baby Bucs isn't ready for prime time; Sanchez, Starling Marte, and Jarek Cunningham lead what's left of the position up-and-comers, and of the top dozen prospects in the system according to The Scouting Book, five are in or near Pittsburgh and two were just taken in the 2010 draft.

The fly in the ointment will be the pitching. The Pirate staff is populated by #3 and lower starters; there is no ace here and none on the horizon. Lincoln's upper limit seems to be as a #2 guy, and he probably fits more comfortably in the three hole.

Still, three guys like Lincoln, Ross Ohlendorf, and Paul Maholm can eat innings and keep games competitive when they're on; good glovework and some crooked numbers on the scoreboard should make the staff better even without attrition.

They may have to look outside for that top gun. Kevin Hart and Donnie Veal both went under the knife, and Charlie Morton is...well, who knows? Bryan Morris, Tim Alderson and Rudy Owens are starting to bubble to the top, but the trio don't offer any immediate help; youngster Zack Von Rosenberg holds promise, too.

Top pick Jameson Taillon has an outside shot of joining that list, but that's a lot to expect from an 18 year-old who in all likelihood will join the system too late to pitch in 2010. And we do expect him to sign; there's a lot of risk involved in going to college for a couple of seasons, and not much upside. After all, he can't improve his draft position by more than one position no matter how well he pitches.

The last two draft classes have been loaded with young arms, but they're seasons away if they do make it. Maybe by 2012-13 the organization will have some internal solutions, but that's not a sure thing at this point.

But hey, the gray clouds are beginning to break up. And it's been a long time since Pittsburgh has let the sunshine in. As the old chestnut goes, it's darkest right before dawn. The future is beginning to dawn over Pittsburgh.