- Jeff Karstens was limited to tossing off flat ground the past couple of sessions and will miss his early live pitching slot because of bicep tightness. Neither he nor the Bucs seem concerned, shrugging it off to pre-season rust and some chilly weather.
- Mike Sanserino of the Post Gazette reports that the Bucs believe it's Jason Grilli's time to shine.
- Carson Cistulli of Fangraphs projects RHP Kyle McPherson as the #2 rookie pitcher entering the league this season. If he makes the roster, that is...
- Keith Law of ESPN had earlier selected Gerrit Cole as a Top 20 impact rookie.
- RHP Vic Black, one of the top Pirate back-end prospects who features some nasty heat and an intimidating Mohawk, told Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review that his secret is...yoga.
- David Miller of Rant Sports wonders if Kris Johnson's moment has arrived. Maybe not yet, but the lefty has put himself on the Pirate radar.
- John Morosi of Fox Sports thinks Kyle Lohse would be a clutch addition to the Bucs, even as he notes they've shown no interest in the righty. Between the draft pick compensation and his salary (he turned down $13M to become a FA), we don't expect the FO to take the bait.
- Pittsburgh has five of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects. Three are pitchers - Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Luis Heredia.
- MLB this year has taken the fake-to-third, throw-to-first pickoff off the books so that now you have to throw directly to third or it's a balk. The O's Buck Showalter thinks it'll have an impact; we're not so sure.
Showing posts with label pirates pitching 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pirates pitching 2013. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Pitching Notes
Pitching is the name of the game...
Friday, February 8, 2013
Liriano In The Fold Finally
Well, it took a couple of months, but lefty Francisco Liriano, 29, finally inked a deal with the Pirates. The timing is about right; we figured he would take his physical sometime around the pitcher's reporting date, which is Monday. The deal will require a corresponding move on the 40-man roster, which was full. (EDIT - Kristy Robinson reported that Vin Mazzaro was outrighted to Indy.)
The Bucs had a lot of young guys penciled in to battle for the last spot or two, but with The Cisco Kid, Jonathan Sanchez and Jeff Karstens all recently in the fold, it'll make for an interesting spring. A little depth is a good thing, and this is about as deep as the Pirate starting staff has been, even if question marks abound.
As for Liriano, from what we've heard, his contract is still for two years, but with performance markers he has to reach this season to protect the Pirates if his arm ends up being a major issue. (EDIT - the Bucs announced that it's a one-year deal that includes a vesting option for 2014. $1M is guaranteed, but the entire $12.75M can be reached). He's still a big if until he's mended and ready to fire.
His signing gives the Bucs a lot of options. Assuming he'll not be ready to go at the opening bell, the FO could stick to Plan A, with JK holding down the four spot and Jeff Locke duking it out with Kyle McPherson for the fifth spot.
But they can go a couple of directions: Karstens could get bumped to the pen (and that's not etched in stone; Vin Mazzaro is a mini-Karstens). Then Locke, McPherson, and Sanchez can go after two open slots (with the caveat that all three can be safely sent to Indy in 2013) along with Jeanmar Gomez, who is out of options, as a darkhorse.
And whatever configuration breaks camp will likely be temporary - both Liriano and Charlie Morton will be back sometime during the season, and it's widely believed that this is the year Gerrit Cole joins in the PNC fun.
The jam will filter through the upper levels - Cole, Justin Wilson (if he doesn't become the bullpen's second lefty, which we think is unlikely), Andy Oliver and Phil Irwin will be starting at Indy with whoever loses out in Bradenton, with some nice young arms behind them at Altoona, led by Jameson Taillon. The Buc position youngsters may be a few steps away, but the pitching prospects are in the MLB pipeline.
The Bucs had a lot of young guys penciled in to battle for the last spot or two, but with The Cisco Kid, Jonathan Sanchez and Jeff Karstens all recently in the fold, it'll make for an interesting spring. A little depth is a good thing, and this is about as deep as the Pirate starting staff has been, even if question marks abound.
As for Liriano, from what we've heard, his contract is still for two years, but with performance markers he has to reach this season to protect the Pirates if his arm ends up being a major issue. (EDIT - the Bucs announced that it's a one-year deal that includes a vesting option for 2014. $1M is guaranteed, but the entire $12.75M can be reached). He's still a big if until he's mended and ready to fire.
His signing gives the Bucs a lot of options. Assuming he'll not be ready to go at the opening bell, the FO could stick to Plan A, with JK holding down the four spot and Jeff Locke duking it out with Kyle McPherson for the fifth spot.
But they can go a couple of directions: Karstens could get bumped to the pen (and that's not etched in stone; Vin Mazzaro is a mini-Karstens). Then Locke, McPherson, and Sanchez can go after two open slots (with the caveat that all three can be safely sent to Indy in 2013) along with Jeanmar Gomez, who is out of options, as a darkhorse.
And whatever configuration breaks camp will likely be temporary - both Liriano and Charlie Morton will be back sometime during the season, and it's widely believed that this is the year Gerrit Cole joins in the PNC fun.
The jam will filter through the upper levels - Cole, Justin Wilson (if he doesn't become the bullpen's second lefty, which we think is unlikely), Andy Oliver and Phil Irwin will be starting at Indy with whoever loses out in Bradenton, with some nice young arms behind them at Altoona, led by Jameson Taillon. The Buc position youngsters may be a few steps away, but the pitching prospects are in the MLB pipeline.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
The Pitching Shuffle
Just a couple of days ago, the Pirate pitching rotation was coming into focus; a little fuzzy, but everything other than the fringe pieces were falling in place. Now...
Jonathan Sanchez was signed to a minor league deal, and apparently Francisco Liriano is a physical away from getting his Pirate papers in order, too. That leaves a lot of guys in line to vie for a spot on the staff this year. That may be routine for many clubs, but in Pittsburgh...well, it seems like a long time since so much jostling has gone on.
The starting core will remain the same, with AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez and James McDonald locks to open in 2013. Wandy is the only guy, though, who has shown true consistency in his career. Since 2009, he's answered the bell 30-34 times per season, worked between 191-206 innings, posted ERAs of 3.02-3.76 and FIPs of 3.50-4.15; Wandy is one of the breed who outperforms his FIP on a regular basis. He's not an ace, but slots nicely in the two or three hole.
AJ posted his best walk numbers (7.3%) since 2006, his best ERA (3.51) since 2005 and his best FIP (3.52) since 2008. So repeating his sterling 2012 campaign isn't a given; although switching divisions and becoming the alpha dog could be the drivers behind the season. One thing you can be sure of is that he'll show up. Since 2008, he's started between 31-33 games and worked 186-221 IP.
James McDonald is trying to become more than a tease. He's got the tools, but now needs to grow into a pitcher. His pitch count problems and last season's post-All Star meltdown indicate his troubles are more rooted in approach and command rather than ability, and we're waiting for the light to come on.
Until that time, the team can't be sure what they'll get from J-Mac. He is a true results pitcher; last year his ERA and FIP matched at 4.21, and in his career his ERA is 4.10 with a FIP of 4.23. His stuff plays well enough that he could easily slot in the #2-#3 holes of a rotation, so the Bucs will put forth the effort into developing him.
So the main question among those three is how they're slotted. Burnett and Rodriguez are historically workhorses, and J-Mac has the strongest arsenal of the trio. They'll start as the top three, but there are some upside arms behind them.
Jeff Karstens was sitting in the four hole, and Jeff Locke, pushed by Kyle McPherson and Jeanmar Gomez, had the last spot a couple of days ago. But that's changed now.
Karstens may end up bumped back to his old role as spot starter/mid-to-long reliever; the Pirates don't seem all that eager, given his injury history, to hand him a rotation spot, and now they don't have to. Sanchez, for all his problems last year, was shut down by tendinitis over the last two months of 2012, and may have been pitching hurt all year. That would make him a bounce-back candidate with a bullet.
Liriano has been plagued with inconsistency; he's been the opposite of Wandy in that he underperforms by his metrics. His lifetime FIP is 3.75, which is a nice number, but his career ERA is a quite pedestrian 4.40, especially considering his stuff. The Cisco Kid's ERA has beat his FIP just once, and that was in 2006. But his toolkit is loaded, and he can still get guys to swing and miss.
We know the Bucs are taking fliers on Sanchez and Liriano, but both are young (Liriano is 29, Sanchez 30), have some pretty good seasons behind them, and want to reestablish their value. The FO could be looking at them as more than rentals.
Throw into the equation that Charlie Morton, who is out of options, should return sometime after the All-Star game. Gerrit Cole will be called up when he's ready and there's an every-fifth-day spot open for him. They have plenty of guys available for emergency starts; when they bring up Cole, we'd assume it'll be for good.
Phil Irwin and Justin Wilson both could become challengers to Locke and McPherson at Indy. The rule of thumb is that a staff should be at least eight guys deep to get through a season; looks like the Bucs should be able to cover that this year, for the first time in the Huntington/Coonelly era.
All those those tumbling dominoes will complicate the bullpen choices. If JK rejoins the pen, that means that he, Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes and Tony Watson are in.
That leaves Chris Leroux, Bryon Morris, Vin Mazzaro and Jeanmar Gomez battling for two spots, and all four of those guys are out of options. They may get a temporary reprieve if Liriano can't go by Opening Day, but that's only delaying the inevitable. And don't count out Wilson as a candidate to break camp, especially if Clint Hurdle wants a second lefty.
Pitching will be the biggest sidebar of the spring, not just concerning the roster but as possible trade pieces. And for a change, that sidebar should be a good thing.
Jonathan Sanchez was signed to a minor league deal, and apparently Francisco Liriano is a physical away from getting his Pirate papers in order, too. That leaves a lot of guys in line to vie for a spot on the staff this year. That may be routine for many clubs, but in Pittsburgh...well, it seems like a long time since so much jostling has gone on.
The starting core will remain the same, with AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez and James McDonald locks to open in 2013. Wandy is the only guy, though, who has shown true consistency in his career. Since 2009, he's answered the bell 30-34 times per season, worked between 191-206 innings, posted ERAs of 3.02-3.76 and FIPs of 3.50-4.15; Wandy is one of the breed who outperforms his FIP on a regular basis. He's not an ace, but slots nicely in the two or three hole.
AJ posted his best walk numbers (7.3%) since 2006, his best ERA (3.51) since 2005 and his best FIP (3.52) since 2008. So repeating his sterling 2012 campaign isn't a given; although switching divisions and becoming the alpha dog could be the drivers behind the season. One thing you can be sure of is that he'll show up. Since 2008, he's started between 31-33 games and worked 186-221 IP.
James McDonald is trying to become more than a tease. He's got the tools, but now needs to grow into a pitcher. His pitch count problems and last season's post-All Star meltdown indicate his troubles are more rooted in approach and command rather than ability, and we're waiting for the light to come on.
Until that time, the team can't be sure what they'll get from J-Mac. He is a true results pitcher; last year his ERA and FIP matched at 4.21, and in his career his ERA is 4.10 with a FIP of 4.23. His stuff plays well enough that he could easily slot in the #2-#3 holes of a rotation, so the Bucs will put forth the effort into developing him.
So the main question among those three is how they're slotted. Burnett and Rodriguez are historically workhorses, and J-Mac has the strongest arsenal of the trio. They'll start as the top three, but there are some upside arms behind them.
Jeff Karstens was sitting in the four hole, and Jeff Locke, pushed by Kyle McPherson and Jeanmar Gomez, had the last spot a couple of days ago. But that's changed now.
Karstens may end up bumped back to his old role as spot starter/mid-to-long reliever; the Pirates don't seem all that eager, given his injury history, to hand him a rotation spot, and now they don't have to. Sanchez, for all his problems last year, was shut down by tendinitis over the last two months of 2012, and may have been pitching hurt all year. That would make him a bounce-back candidate with a bullet.
Liriano has been plagued with inconsistency; he's been the opposite of Wandy in that he underperforms by his metrics. His lifetime FIP is 3.75, which is a nice number, but his career ERA is a quite pedestrian 4.40, especially considering his stuff. The Cisco Kid's ERA has beat his FIP just once, and that was in 2006. But his toolkit is loaded, and he can still get guys to swing and miss.
We know the Bucs are taking fliers on Sanchez and Liriano, but both are young (Liriano is 29, Sanchez 30), have some pretty good seasons behind them, and want to reestablish their value. The FO could be looking at them as more than rentals.
Throw into the equation that Charlie Morton, who is out of options, should return sometime after the All-Star game. Gerrit Cole will be called up when he's ready and there's an every-fifth-day spot open for him. They have plenty of guys available for emergency starts; when they bring up Cole, we'd assume it'll be for good.
Phil Irwin and Justin Wilson both could become challengers to Locke and McPherson at Indy. The rule of thumb is that a staff should be at least eight guys deep to get through a season; looks like the Bucs should be able to cover that this year, for the first time in the Huntington/Coonelly era.
All those those tumbling dominoes will complicate the bullpen choices. If JK rejoins the pen, that means that he, Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes and Tony Watson are in.
That leaves Chris Leroux, Bryon Morris, Vin Mazzaro and Jeanmar Gomez battling for two spots, and all four of those guys are out of options. They may get a temporary reprieve if Liriano can't go by Opening Day, but that's only delaying the inevitable. And don't count out Wilson as a candidate to break camp, especially if Clint Hurdle wants a second lefty.
Pitching will be the biggest sidebar of the spring, not just concerning the roster but as possible trade pieces. And for a change, that sidebar should be a good thing.
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