Will Pellas' thoughts on the shortstop position:
I'll say it again: if you have to go with a shortstop who is a one or two dimensional guy---a flawed player, a less than ideal solution---surely he ought to be the one with the best glove unless he is totally incompetent with the bat. To me, that spells "C-I-R-I-A-C-O".
That said, given the weakness of the position all around the majors at the moment, as well as the weakeness of this offseason's free agent class, maybe Cedeno isn't such a bad idea after all, assuming his considerable defensive improvement in 2011 is real and sustainable.
I'd personally be inclined to re-sign him and make Ciriaco the backup, while giving Ciriaco enough starts to get a better idea if his bat---such as it is---and running game would provide enough offense to consider getting rid of Cedeno, either during the season or, surely, by the winter of 2012.
D'Arnaud, I think, probably has the inside track among the guys who are left, but if he doesn't hit a lot better next year, the door is wide open for Mercer. Mercer has power, D'Arnaud has speed; if I had to choose one or the other I'd take speed, at least when we're talking about shortstop, but as the saying goes: you can't steal first base.
Then again this team has a lot worse holes than shortstop, and a lot more of them. So, maybe this is a tempest in a teapot discussion.
Showing posts with label shortstop. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shortstop. Show all posts
Monday, October 10, 2011
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Shortstop
We knew coming into the season that Ronny Cedeno was going to man the middle. Cedeno was on a short leash because of his legendary good SS/bad SS resume, but nobody stepped up to challenge him.
Well, looks like the same situation is about to repeat in 2012. The Bucs lost out on last year's SS market, which pretty much consisted of JJ Hardy, and Chase d'Arnaud showed he wasn't ready for prime time. This year's free market is headlined by Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, and the Pirate grab bag consists of guys like Jamey Carroll, Cesar Izturis, Clint Barmes and maybe Rafael Furcal. So it's likely that the FO will exercise RC's $3M option and bring him back.
Cedeno, 28, hit .249, about what you'd expect from an eight-hole hitter, although his .297 OBP was disappointing. But his Ultimate Zone Rating/150 of +6.8 was excellent, he had his best professional season of fielding balls in his zone, and had a career high 66 plays outside of his zone. He was the ninth ranked SS in MLB, and third in the NL, with his glove. All in all, he finished the year with a 1.4 WAR, OK for a glove-first position.
Funny how the Bucs seemed to be loaded back in the day with Brent Lillibridge, who went to Atlanta, and Brian Bixler, now of the Nats. Neither lived up to their billing, and the hope is that Chase d'Arnaud doesn't join them.
d'Arnaud is an exciting player, and was taken in the fourth round of the 2008 draft. He flies around the sacks and is an accomplished base stealer. It's just getting him on base that's proved troublesome. In his tiny 2011 MLB sampling of 151 PAs, he hit .217 and only had a .248 OBP. His main problem was discipline, proving a sucker for pitches off the dish. Cedeno, by contrast, hit .249/.297, not very strong numbers but considerably stronger than d'Arnaud's line.
For all his quickness, d'Arnaud was just league average in range and committed 6 errors in 206 innings, not the SS numbers you want behind a pitch-to-contact staff. Again, Cedeno trumped him with above-average range and 13 errors in 1,050 frames.
He'll probably start 2012 at Indy, getting some at-bats; d'Arnaud has only played 70-some games at the AAA level. The 24 year old is considered to be the shortstop of the future, and is toolsy enough to eventually claim the spot.
There's also a chance, since he's also played third and second, that Pittsburgh keeps him on the big team instead of Brandon Wood or Pedro Ciriaco. d'Arnaud is a sparkplug off the bench, but exposed when he's out there every day.
Right behind him is Jordy Mercer, who was actually taken a round earlier than d'Arnaud in the 2008 draft. Mercer is a better fielder with a strong arm - he was a closer in college - and has some pop with the bat. He's had 30 doubles three years running, and knocked 19 balls out of the yard in 2011, split between Altoona and Indy.
But Mercer has discipline problems at the plate, and his OBP for the Tribe was just .304. He is a streak hitter, too - he had to finish strong to end up with a .239 BA at Indy after a terrible August run. Mercer isn't on the 40-man roster, and has to be protected this year from the Rule V draft.
So the Bucs have two minor league guys behind Cedeno, and both have holes. There are also holdovers Pedro Ciriaco and Brandon Wood.
Ciriaco, 25, is a terrific SS with the leather and can run well, but he joins the crowd with a so-so BA (.270) and terrible OBP (.297) in the minors, although he was competent with the stick in his few outings in Pittsburgh. But judging by the way Clint Hurdle buried him, we don't see much organizational love for Ciriaco.
Wood, 26, a waiver wire pick up, also filled in at short, his original position, though he handled third base well. He put together a line of .220/7/31 in 236 ABs. His major drawback is that the other three can also play second - heck, so can RC - and that lack of versatility could haunt him. At least, it makes him a better bench corner candidate than middle infield soldier. Wood can play first, and if the FO can't sign Derrek Lee and returns to platooning with Garrett Jones there, he's a better fit there.
Altoona's Brock Holt, 23, may eventually work his way into the mix, too. He has a good bat and an eye at the plate, but profiles more in the field as a second baseman than shortstop. We may get to see him at Indy in 2012, but if Mercer and d'Arnaud both start there, he could also tread water with the Curve a bit longer.
So the Bucs have four young shortstops - d'Arnaud is 24, Mercer and Ciriaco are 25, and Wood is 26 - but none who is a complete package. Two can field, two can run, and two have some pop, but none have all three tools. So it will be interesting to see how the FO handles the jam, especially if the team feels that d'Arnaud and Mercer both still need work at Indy.
That would leave their choice for back-up SS between Wood, who held the spot most of the season, and Ciriaco, who probably needed a few doses of Dramamine to counter his rapid trips between Indy and Pittsburgh in 2011. Or they could bring in a free agent, which has not exactly been the FO's forte (do Ramon Vazquez, Bobby Crosby and Josh Rodriguez ring a bell?)
If the Bucs hope to find a good field, good hit shortstop, they'll likely have to go outside the system. If one out of two works, they're set.
Well, looks like the same situation is about to repeat in 2012. The Bucs lost out on last year's SS market, which pretty much consisted of JJ Hardy, and Chase d'Arnaud showed he wasn't ready for prime time. This year's free market is headlined by Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, and the Pirate grab bag consists of guys like Jamey Carroll, Cesar Izturis, Clint Barmes and maybe Rafael Furcal. So it's likely that the FO will exercise RC's $3M option and bring him back.
Cedeno, 28, hit .249, about what you'd expect from an eight-hole hitter, although his .297 OBP was disappointing. But his Ultimate Zone Rating/150 of +6.8 was excellent, he had his best professional season of fielding balls in his zone, and had a career high 66 plays outside of his zone. He was the ninth ranked SS in MLB, and third in the NL, with his glove. All in all, he finished the year with a 1.4 WAR, OK for a glove-first position.
Funny how the Bucs seemed to be loaded back in the day with Brent Lillibridge, who went to Atlanta, and Brian Bixler, now of the Nats. Neither lived up to their billing, and the hope is that Chase d'Arnaud doesn't join them.
d'Arnaud is an exciting player, and was taken in the fourth round of the 2008 draft. He flies around the sacks and is an accomplished base stealer. It's just getting him on base that's proved troublesome. In his tiny 2011 MLB sampling of 151 PAs, he hit .217 and only had a .248 OBP. His main problem was discipline, proving a sucker for pitches off the dish. Cedeno, by contrast, hit .249/.297, not very strong numbers but considerably stronger than d'Arnaud's line.
For all his quickness, d'Arnaud was just league average in range and committed 6 errors in 206 innings, not the SS numbers you want behind a pitch-to-contact staff. Again, Cedeno trumped him with above-average range and 13 errors in 1,050 frames.
He'll probably start 2012 at Indy, getting some at-bats; d'Arnaud has only played 70-some games at the AAA level. The 24 year old is considered to be the shortstop of the future, and is toolsy enough to eventually claim the spot.
There's also a chance, since he's also played third and second, that Pittsburgh keeps him on the big team instead of Brandon Wood or Pedro Ciriaco. d'Arnaud is a sparkplug off the bench, but exposed when he's out there every day.
Right behind him is Jordy Mercer, who was actually taken a round earlier than d'Arnaud in the 2008 draft. Mercer is a better fielder with a strong arm - he was a closer in college - and has some pop with the bat. He's had 30 doubles three years running, and knocked 19 balls out of the yard in 2011, split between Altoona and Indy.
But Mercer has discipline problems at the plate, and his OBP for the Tribe was just .304. He is a streak hitter, too - he had to finish strong to end up with a .239 BA at Indy after a terrible August run. Mercer isn't on the 40-man roster, and has to be protected this year from the Rule V draft.
So the Bucs have two minor league guys behind Cedeno, and both have holes. There are also holdovers Pedro Ciriaco and Brandon Wood.
Ciriaco, 25, is a terrific SS with the leather and can run well, but he joins the crowd with a so-so BA (.270) and terrible OBP (.297) in the minors, although he was competent with the stick in his few outings in Pittsburgh. But judging by the way Clint Hurdle buried him, we don't see much organizational love for Ciriaco.
Wood, 26, a waiver wire pick up, also filled in at short, his original position, though he handled third base well. He put together a line of .220/7/31 in 236 ABs. His major drawback is that the other three can also play second - heck, so can RC - and that lack of versatility could haunt him. At least, it makes him a better bench corner candidate than middle infield soldier. Wood can play first, and if the FO can't sign Derrek Lee and returns to platooning with Garrett Jones there, he's a better fit there.
Altoona's Brock Holt, 23, may eventually work his way into the mix, too. He has a good bat and an eye at the plate, but profiles more in the field as a second baseman than shortstop. We may get to see him at Indy in 2012, but if Mercer and d'Arnaud both start there, he could also tread water with the Curve a bit longer.
So the Bucs have four young shortstops - d'Arnaud is 24, Mercer and Ciriaco are 25, and Wood is 26 - but none who is a complete package. Two can field, two can run, and two have some pop, but none have all three tools. So it will be interesting to see how the FO handles the jam, especially if the team feels that d'Arnaud and Mercer both still need work at Indy.
That would leave their choice for back-up SS between Wood, who held the spot most of the season, and Ciriaco, who probably needed a few doses of Dramamine to counter his rapid trips between Indy and Pittsburgh in 2011. Or they could bring in a free agent, which has not exactly been the FO's forte (do Ramon Vazquez, Bobby Crosby and Josh Rodriguez ring a bell?)
If the Bucs hope to find a good field, good hit shortstop, they'll likely have to go outside the system. If one out of two works, they're set.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Pirates by Position: Shortstop
OK, whether you loved Jack Splat or are glad that he's gone, his era is done. The question is, does it belong to Ronny Cedeno?
He hit .258 for the Bucs, with a .309 OBP, five homers, and 21 RBI in 155 at-bats, very Wilson-esque numbers. Cedeno's fielding was not in Wilson's league, though - his UZF was slightly below average, his range factor slightly above - and the eye confirms the data. He also missed the final three weeks of the season, thanks to some sore hammies.
GW finds him to be a very average player - oh, where are you, Cesar Izturis? -and it's possible they may plug him in as a stop-gap in the hopes that Brian Friday can make the leap to the show in 2011.
Friday, 23, Altoona's shortstop, is the closest player to being MLB ready in the Pirate system. He was a third round pick of the 2007 draft from Rice, hit .265/7/46 with a .361 OBP for the Curve, and his glove is considered above-average.
The good news is that he's working on his craft in the winter league, unlike some of those lay-abouts that the Pirate suits harumphed. The bad news is that Scottsdale has eight infielders on its roster, and six are shortstops.
One, in fact, is Chase d'Arnaud, 22, the fourth round selection in the 2008 draft from Pepperdine. He rocked in Lynchburg, hitting for a .295/.402/.481 line with four homers in 210 at-bats as the Hillcats' plate setter, stealing a combined 31 sacks for the Hillcats and West Virginia in 2009.
The 6-1 d'Arnaud was voted the best defensive shortstop in the Carolina League, and was the league's #13 prospect, according to Baseball America.
He split his time between second and short almost evenly at Lynchburg, though, as he's on the same track as 2008's third round pick, SS Jordy Mercer, 23, from Oklahoma State. Mercer is a big guy for the position, 6-3, 195 pounds, and hit .255/10/83 for Lynchburg. He got the lion's share of work at short, but also played 27 games at third base.
Where either of these guys ends up in the field is yet to be determined, but they both have a decent shot at landing in Pittsburgh by 2012-13.
The Pirates also have a couple of youngsters that could challenge in time, Jarek Cunningham and Brock Holt. Cunningham, 19, was drafted out of high school in 2008, and batted .328 with five home runs and 22 RBIs in 148 at-bats at Bradenton.
But he had ACL surgery, and lost this season. He played quite a bit at third for the baby Bucs because of the knee, and it's tough to project where he'll line up on the field until the results of his visit to the chop shop become known.
Holt, 22, this year's 9th round pick from Rice, hit .299/.361/.449 for Low A State College, with six homers, 33 RBI, and nine stolen sacks. He played 18 games at second base and 48 at shortstop, and is a good glove guy.
So the lower levels of short look OK, the caveat being that except for Friday, all the others are playing musical chairs in the infield until the suits slot them. That leaves us with the here and now.
As with second, the depth behind Cedeno is Ramon Vazquez, Brian Bixler, and Luis Cruz. Short-term inconvenience, hey?
You can add Argenis Diaz, 22, obtained in the Adam LaRoche deal, to that list. He's on the 40-man roster and is a great glove man. His problem is he can't hit a lick. At Indy, Diaz hit .233 with a slugging percentage of .240, your classic banjo hitter. But he could push Bix or Cruz out as Vasquez's pine partner.
The other option is to go outside the system and get a body that can play short until the wave of young 'uns splashes over PNC. There are a couple of guys available - J.J. Hardy, maybe Stephen Drew and Reid Brignac/Jason Bartlett could find new teams, if the price is right.
So the Pirates are faced with either plugging in Ronny Cedeno or going outside the organization to patch the shortstop hole until the minor league cavalry arrives.
CONTRACTUAL ISSUES: Ronny Cedeno and Luis Cruz are out of options; Cedeno is arbitration-eligible. Ramon Vazquez is under contract for 2010. The others are under team control.
He hit .258 for the Bucs, with a .309 OBP, five homers, and 21 RBI in 155 at-bats, very Wilson-esque numbers. Cedeno's fielding was not in Wilson's league, though - his UZF was slightly below average, his range factor slightly above - and the eye confirms the data. He also missed the final three weeks of the season, thanks to some sore hammies.
GW finds him to be a very average player - oh, where are you, Cesar Izturis? -and it's possible they may plug him in as a stop-gap in the hopes that Brian Friday can make the leap to the show in 2011.
Friday, 23, Altoona's shortstop, is the closest player to being MLB ready in the Pirate system. He was a third round pick of the 2007 draft from Rice, hit .265/7/46 with a .361 OBP for the Curve, and his glove is considered above-average.
The good news is that he's working on his craft in the winter league, unlike some of those lay-abouts that the Pirate suits harumphed. The bad news is that Scottsdale has eight infielders on its roster, and six are shortstops.
One, in fact, is Chase d'Arnaud, 22, the fourth round selection in the 2008 draft from Pepperdine. He rocked in Lynchburg, hitting for a .295/.402/.481 line with four homers in 210 at-bats as the Hillcats' plate setter, stealing a combined 31 sacks for the Hillcats and West Virginia in 2009.
The 6-1 d'Arnaud was voted the best defensive shortstop in the Carolina League, and was the league's #13 prospect, according to Baseball America.
He split his time between second and short almost evenly at Lynchburg, though, as he's on the same track as 2008's third round pick, SS Jordy Mercer, 23, from Oklahoma State. Mercer is a big guy for the position, 6-3, 195 pounds, and hit .255/10/83 for Lynchburg. He got the lion's share of work at short, but also played 27 games at third base.
Where either of these guys ends up in the field is yet to be determined, but they both have a decent shot at landing in Pittsburgh by 2012-13.
The Pirates also have a couple of youngsters that could challenge in time, Jarek Cunningham and Brock Holt. Cunningham, 19, was drafted out of high school in 2008, and batted .328 with five home runs and 22 RBIs in 148 at-bats at Bradenton.
But he had ACL surgery, and lost this season. He played quite a bit at third for the baby Bucs because of the knee, and it's tough to project where he'll line up on the field until the results of his visit to the chop shop become known.
Holt, 22, this year's 9th round pick from Rice, hit .299/.361/.449 for Low A State College, with six homers, 33 RBI, and nine stolen sacks. He played 18 games at second base and 48 at shortstop, and is a good glove guy.
So the lower levels of short look OK, the caveat being that except for Friday, all the others are playing musical chairs in the infield until the suits slot them. That leaves us with the here and now.
As with second, the depth behind Cedeno is Ramon Vazquez, Brian Bixler, and Luis Cruz. Short-term inconvenience, hey?
You can add Argenis Diaz, 22, obtained in the Adam LaRoche deal, to that list. He's on the 40-man roster and is a great glove man. His problem is he can't hit a lick. At Indy, Diaz hit .233 with a slugging percentage of .240, your classic banjo hitter. But he could push Bix or Cruz out as Vasquez's pine partner.
The other option is to go outside the system and get a body that can play short until the wave of young 'uns splashes over PNC. There are a couple of guys available - J.J. Hardy, maybe Stephen Drew and Reid Brignac/Jason Bartlett could find new teams, if the price is right.
So the Pirates are faced with either plugging in Ronny Cedeno or going outside the organization to patch the shortstop hole until the minor league cavalry arrives.
CONTRACTUAL ISSUES: Ronny Cedeno and Luis Cruz are out of options; Cedeno is arbitration-eligible. Ramon Vazquez is under contract for 2010. The others are under team control.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Jack Splat versus the field
Jumpin' Jack Wilson from Wikipedia
We took a look at Gene Alley yesterday, and as we were tossing the BS around while gulping down the morning's first coffee at work, my hot stove buds debated how Jack Wilson would stack up against the other tenured Pirate shortstops. So we put together what we considered the top half dozen shortstops to wear the Buc uniform. They spent 63 years and 8,380 games representing this town. Here's a chart we came up with of some selected stats to see how these long time Bucco SS's compared:
all
player yrs games avg obp rs rbi rp field l-avg dp
Wagner 18 2433 .328 .387 88 82 165 .946 +13 49
Vaughan 10 1411 .324 .409 94 76 162 .950 +2 79
Groat 9 1258 .290 .325 62 50 109 .962 +1 97
Alley 11 1195 .254 .310 40 31 65 .970 +6 64
Bell 8 1106 .269 .339 78 53 121 .976 +1 79
Wilson 7 997 .269 .312 65 48 105 .977 +4 102
(The stats are for years as a Pirate, broken down to season average. rp is runs produced = rs+rbi-hr. l-avg is how many percentage points above the league average the player fielded over his career. The fielding stats are for SS only. We didn't show home runs because of the different eras involved, but Jay Bell was the group's top slugger, averaging 10 dingers/year. No A-Rods in this bunch.)
So what's it tell us? Well, we can start with the obvious - Honus Wagner and Arky Vaughan were head and shoulders above the crowd when it came to hitting a baseball. Jay Bell was a pretty good run producer, and in fact fares better overall than we thought he might. Dick Groat was a good stick, but his run production wasn't that great.
The fielding was a surprise, though. The later the era, the better the fielding percentage, with Jack Wilson being the top gloveman and Wagner the worst. That probably has quite a bit to do with the conditions of the fields they played on, and in Wagner's case, the quality of second basemen he played with - he's also dead last in DP's, and it takes two to turn one.
To normalize that, we took the league average and compared it to the individual fielding percentage (l-avg comparison). When we compare apples to apples, Wagner vaults from dead last in fielding to first, finishing his career a whopping 13 points higher in fielding percentage than the league average during his years.
Wagner and Alley also have somewhat deceiving stats because they played for Pittsburgh as their baseball days wound down while everyone else was in their prime as a Pirate. So their numbers may be a bit devalued overall.
To make a long analysis short, we totaled the obp, rp, l-avg fielding comparison and dp's, 1 point for the best, 6 points for the worst. Hopefully this simple formula gives equal weight to glove and bat. Like golf, the lowest score wins. The best of the Bucco's shortstops according to the Green Weenie are *tada*:
Honus Wagner (9)
Arky Vaughan (10)
Jay Bell & Jack Wilson (14)
Dick Groat (15)
Gene Alley (17)
No matter how you slice it, Wagner and Vaughan are the best we've ever had at short. But Bell, Wilson and Groat are so tightly bunched that you can't separate them with a gnat's eyelash. Alley's glove was one of the Buc's better ones, but his bat drops him down to the bottom of the heap.
And to answer the original question, Wilson more than holds his own in some pretty fast company.
Of course, we'd be remiss if we didn't throw one Jumping Jack Flash factoid into the post. When he was a teenager and playing on a summer travel team, Wilson's roommate was his future Pirates teammate Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez played shortstop while Wilson manned second base. Funny how the more things change, the more they say the same. It just took a couple of decades to get them back together and in their right positions.
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