Monday, December 10, 2012

Grilli Signs; Bullpen Takes Shape

The Buc bullpen got a little closer to its 2013 shape today when it was announced by everyone but the Pirates that Jason Grilli signed on again, inking a 2 year, $6.75M deal pending a physical. In his time with the Pirates, he's put up a 3-7-3/2.76 slash with 12.5 K/game rate.

It's good news because while there is some risk involved - Grilli is 36, and his flyball/homerun rate jumped while his groundball rate took a nosedive last year though he could still blow it by people - the Pirates needed a guy that misses bats, has had back-end success and can call on ten MLB campaigns worth of experience to share with a still pretty young bullpen. He may end up closing, and judging by last year, he's worth the shot - his eighth inning ERA/OBA was 3.04/.203; in the ninth, with much less work, it was 3.24/.241.

And while not guaranteed, it also looks like the beginning of the end in Pittsburgh for Joel Hanrahan. The big righty is in line for a $7M payday through arbitration, and on top of Grilli's deal, that $10M+ investment seems out of character for a Pirate bullpen. There hasn't been much market for Hanny yet, but he could either be packaged or traded for an equivalent starter's contract like LA's Chris Capuano, a player who the two teams have already discussed.

As for the makeup of the pen, Chris Resop is gone, but Jared Hughes, Tony Watson and Chris Leroux are back. Indy's Bryan Morris is out of options and should stick, too, although his lack of September work last season is a mystery to us. That leaves at least two spots open.

The Pirates have brought in Vin Mazzaro and Zach Stewart, both who will compete for a slot, and maybe Andy Oliver too, if they opt to add him to the pen mix rather than compete as a starter. The FA market should be tapped for another veteran back-ender like Kyle Farnsworth and/or a lefty like Mike Gonzalez.

Grilli's signing gives Pittsburgh some form to its 2013 bullpen, and they'll add another arm or two before camp. With Grilled Cheese wrapped up and and Russell Martin inked, now it's time to look for a starter...

Zach Stewart

The Bucs picked up Zach Stewart from the Red Sox, and are probably hoping to end with another arm somewhat in the mold of Jared Hughes and Tony Watson.

Stewart, 26, is a Texan. He attended Holliday High, and was quite the jock, lettering in baseball, basketball, football, track and tennis. The righty was a standout pitcher who helped lead his team to the state tournament all four years of high school and was an All-State selection his junior and senior seasons.

He made a quick stop at Angelo State University for a semester before transferring to North Central Texas College, where he pitched 2006-07. He had a solid season in his first year as the Lions' sole freshman in the starting rotation. In his sophomore year, he became only the second Lion pitcher to be named to the All-Region Team.

With that resume, he transferred to Texas Tech University in 2008. Stewart was their closer, throwing a sinker that came in between 93-96 MPH with a plus slider, but he stepped into a starting role out of necessity later in the season for the Red Raiders.

Stewart was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the third round of the 2008 draft, and signed for $450,000. The Reds saw him as a bullpen back-ender.

Looked like a smart decision, too. Stewart made his pro debut that summer for the Low Class A Dayton Dragons, allowing one earned run in 11 outings, striking out 13 in 16-1/3 IP. The Reds jumped him to High A Sarasota, where he put up a 1.63 ERA with 23 K in 16-2/3 IP. Combined, his slash was1-4-5/1.09 ERA in 24 games and 36 K in 33 IP. Baseball America ranked him as the Reds 15th best prospect after the season.

Stewart started 2009 back at Sarasota, where he was converted to a starter and went 1-1/2.13 in seven starts with solid peripherals. He moved up to Class AA Carolina 3-0, and in seven more starts there had a slash of 3-0/1.46. That earned him some time at Class AAA Louisville - and it was only late June; that's some fast tracking! The Reds reconverted him with the Bats, and he appeared only out of the pen.

After recording an 0.73 ERA in nine relief appearances with a pair of saves, Cincy made another move with Stewart. No, it wasn't to the show - on August 1st, they traded him, Edwin Encarnación and Josh Roenicke to the Toronto Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. Stewart was treated a little more rudely in the hit-happy PCL, home of the Jays' AAA Las Vegas club, ending his stint there with a 3.38 ERA and 1.8 WHIP in 13-1/3 IP, but averaging a K per frame.

Still, he was the Blue Jays top prospect going into the 2010 season with the best heater in the organization, according to Baseball America. They liked him as a starter. Stewart spent the entire 2010 campaign with the Class AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, going 8-3/3.63 ERA with 132 strikeouts in 26 starts and 136-1/3 innings of work.

Stewart was ranked among the Blue Jays' top five prospects heading into 2011, and was assigned back to New Hampshire. On June 14th, Stewart got the call to Toronto to replace another youngster, the struggling Kyle Drabek. He took his MLB career bow on June 16th, and after making 3 starts (0-1/4.86), Stewart was optioned back to the Fisher Cats in late June. Stewart went 5-5/4.20 there, and was about to pack his bags again.

On July 27th, Stewart was traded to the Chicago White Sox along with Jason Frasor for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen. He was plugged into the rotation, and on August 6th, he earned his first big league victory, 6–1 over the Minnesota Twins. He had another highlight on September 5th, going seven perfect frames against the Twins before Danny Valencia broke it up to open the eighth.

Last season, Stewart spent most of the early season in the White Sox bullpen, and was 1-2/6.00 in 30 IP with pretty weak peripherals. In June, he logged some more plane miles when he was traded to the Red Sox with Brent Lillibridge for Kevin Youkilis and cash.

He was assigned to the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, where he went 3-5/3.94 and pitched pretty well except for a low K rate of five whiffs per nine. He got a couple of late year starts for Boston and was crushed, giving up 14 runs in 5-2/3 innings. He was sent back to Pawtucket, and on November 20th, Stewart was DFA'ed.

On November 28th, the Pirates acquired Stewart from the Red Sox in exchange for a PTBNL, who ended up being Kyle Kaminska.

His sinking fastball sits at ninety and leads to a lot of grounders (50%), and his out pitch is a slider. He also shows a changeup. Stewart has averaged just under six K per nine with two walks, and surrenders 2.2 homers per game, double the usual MLB rate. His velocity is down from his earlier days, but is reported to pick up a couple of ticks when he's working from the pen rather than starting.

Stewart looks like a guy that needs direction; he's spent his entire pro career from Class A to the show yanked between relief and starting. The bullpen looks like his niche; he is basically a two-pitch pony with the sinker/slider combo. His story sounds a lot like that of Hughes and Watson, and we think that's where his future lies. And the guys he was traded for - Scott Rolen, Edwin Jackson and Kevin Youkilis - indicates that scouts see something in his arm.

He's on the 40-man roster, but does have an option remaining, so the FO has a season to fit him into a role if he doesn't claim the Chris Resop spot out of camp.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Andy Oliver

The Bucs big move during the baseball meetings? Swapping out C Ramón Cabrera for Tiger lefty Andy Oliver. Cabrera is an overachiever with potential as a reserve; Oliver has some upside that never was realized for the Motown. The Pirates are hoping a change of scenery will draw that potential from him.

Oliver was all-state performer at Vermilion High School in Ohio, with a senior line of 6-0/0.40 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 52-2/3 innings, As a four year prep pitcher, he was 21-4-3/ 0.96 ERA with 354 K in 196 IP, the epitome of a power pitcher. Oliver ended up as a 17th-round draft pick of the Minnesota Twins, which would eventually get him in a brouhaha with the NCAA; more on that later.

He passed on the Twins offer, and went to Oklahoma State instead after considering offers from other schools like North Carolina and LSU.

Starting part-time as a freshman for the Cowboys, he spent the summer with the Wareham Gatemen of the Cape Cod League and was outstanding, going 1-1 with a 1.41 ERA and 54 punchouts in 45 IP. Baseball America took notice, and ranked him as the circuit's #10 prospect.

That showing primed him for a breakout campaign in 2008, and Oliver became one of the nation's top collegiate performers on the mound for OSU. He put up a slash of 7-2/2.20 ERA, earned first-team All-Big 12 honors and was named a second-team All-American by Rivals.com. Then, the day before he was to pitch in a playoff game, the NCAA came calling.

The organization ruled him ineligible because he had an agent talk to the Twins when they drafted him out of high school back in 2006. It was a tale that exposed baseball's underbelly. His first rep, Tim Barratta, had discussions with the Twins on his behalf, a no-no that to our knowledge has never been enforced and still continues unabated today.

Oliver then switched to Scott Boras, and the spurned Barratta turned in the violation. It ended up not a big deal; Oliver's suit was settled out of court, and he got $750,000 from the NCAA, which managed to keep the rule on the books even if it had no teeth. We'd suppose both sides were happy with the outcome.

He pitched for Team USA during the summer, and made four starts with a 2-0/0.93 slash. Oliver notched 24 K in 19-1/3 innings as part of a national club that went 24-0 record with a gold medal at the World Championships. The lefty looked to be a sure-fire first rounder after he completed his upcoming junior campaign. Well, it didn't quite work out that way.

After some control issues reared their ugly head on Team USA,  he spent his junior year trying to smooth out his pitching mechanics. As a result, he went 5-6 /5.30 ERA. But Oliver still was a lefty with a power arm and sharp hook, recording more than a K per inning over his college career.
 
He was drafted by the Tigers in the second round of the 2009 draft, and signed late for a bonus of $1.495M, more than double the recommended slot. Oliver didn't sign in time to be assigned to a minor league club, but was sent to the Arizona Fall League. He went 1-1/2.81 with 16 Ks in 16 IP. Baseball America rated him as Detroit's #4 prospect.

Oliver made his pro debut in 2010 with the Class AA Erie SeaWolves in 2010. He went 6-4/3.61 in 14 starts there with 70 whiffs in 77-1/3 IP and good peripherals. It got him a quick advancement to Class AAA Toledo. He went 3-4/3.23 with the Mud Hens in nine starts, with 8 K per nine, but also 4 walks.

The Tigers called him up to the majors in late June to make his maiden voyage in the show as a replacement for Rick Porcello. Oliver made five starts, but after the first couple, it didn't go so well - his K rate dropped to seven per game and his walk rate rose to five. The call-up did cost him another shot with Team USA; he had made the roster but the Detroit gig kept him from playing.

The spotty results in the bigs weren't an entirely unexpected result for a fast-tracker. After the season, BA ranked him the #87 prospect in baseball. He won praise from his skipper, too. Tigers manager Jim Leyland viewed the rookie as a potential 15-game winner in the future, according to MLB.com. Leyland said "He had trouble commanding his fastball (but) he was here a little too fast."

He started 2011 at Toledo, and his control went completely south. Oliver was still striking out a batter per inning, but his walks remained at five per game. As a result of his command issues, he ended up with a very modest 8-12/4.71 slash in 26 starts. Oliver was recalled briefly to Detroit in May when Phil Coke was injured. It lasted for two starts, and he walked eight and K'ed five in 9-2/3 frames.

In 2012, he came to camp in the mix to be the fifth starter, but was sent back to Toledo and never appeared for the Tigers. Oliver was moved to pen in July, and made some progress. He went 1-0/3.78 ERA in nine appearances out of the bullpen for the Mud Hens after a line of 4-9/5.06 ERA in 19 starts. The southpaw finished the year with 112 strikeouts and 88 walks in 118 IP. The Tigers FO talked about him as a bullpen candidate in 2013, but that wasn't about to happen.

Oliver, 24, was traded to the Pirates for C Ramón Cabrera. Now the Bucs have to figure out what to do with him.

Baseball America described him as "a power lefty who needs to throw more strikes." His heater comes in at 92-94, though he's not sure where it's going, and his secondary arsenal is weak. His changeup is coming along, but Oliver is having trouble mastering a breaking pitch. He tossed a pretty highly considered curve in college, but lost his feel for it and has alternated between throwing the hook and the slider (he's currently in a slider phase.) Not only has that aggravated his control issues, but without a reliable breaking pitch, it hurts him against lefties, too, who can pretty well sit on his heater.

There's been some debate about whether or not to keep him as a starter, both in Detroit when he was there and we're sure now in Pittsburgh. He has a lot of upside as a rotation guy with the very big if of being able to find the dish and come up with a third pitch.

Oliver still has an option left, and we'd guess that unless he suddenly finds the light switch in the off season, he'll start in Indy as part of the rotation, joining Justin Wilson as a talented but wild lefty.

Still, it's a worthwhile gamble. The Bucs have a couple of young catchers that should be at the A level with Wyatt Mathison and Jin-De Jhang and enough organizational guys in Ali Solis, Carlos Paulino and Jacob Stallings to fill in between, so the loss of Cabrera isn't big. One day, one of those highly-drafted wash-outs the FO loves to collect like Oliver will stick against the wall.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

A Starting Pitcher Next...

The Bucs got their catcher before the baseball meetings; now they're gonna have to get crackin' on lining up some arms to toss the ball to Russell Martin.

As of now, the sure things in the rotation are RHP AJ Burnett, who will be 36 next season, LHP Wandy Rodriguez, who will be 34, and RHP James McDonald, 28. AJ and Wandy have been fairly dependable throughout their careers; J-Mic has to figure out how to finish out a season. Gone are Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia and Erik Bedard.

At best, that leaves two rotation spots open and some needed depth building; most MLB teams like to be eight or nine deep in starters to begin the year.

Those two spots were filled last season by LHP Jeff Locke and RHP Kyle McPherson. Both had flashes of competence, but Locke was plagued by nibbling around the dish, falling into hitters counts and never lasting past six innings in six starts, four outings going five frames or less. McPherson was stronger, but began the 2012 year rehabbing a dead arm and was just pulled from winter ball with the same complaint. That leaves him an iffy candidate to take the hill thirty+ times in 2013.

And make no mistake - when building the back end of the rotation, the one thing a team likes to see is a guy who can eat some innings and not kill the bullpen, and neither Locke nor McPherson has shown that ability yet. So the FO has brought in a few once highly touted but now bargain bin pitchers to compete with them.

LHP Andy Oliver, 25, came over from Detroit. The big lefty pumps smoke and has a decent breaking ball, but has had huge problems locating. He's walked 21 in 31 major league IP, and in his minor league career has issued five free passes per nine innings. Oliver left Detroit's camp as the #5 starter, but ended up working most of the year in AAA Toledo.

RHP Zach Stewart, 26, was acquired from Boston. A third round pick in 2008, the sinker/slider pitcher has yet to translate his upside in either AAA or the show. The FO also brought in RHP Vince Mazzaro, 26, from KC. he was a third round selection in 2005, but has had more success working from the pen than as part of the rotation. All three players are on the 40-man roster, and Oliver and Stewart have an option remaining; Mazzaro doesn't.

Other guys the Pirates have that figure to enter the conversation sometime during the season are RHPs Gerritt Cole, Rick Van Den Hurk and Phil Irwin at Indy, along with Charlie Morton, who should be ready to take the hill after TJ surgery sometime during the summer. LHP Justin Wilson has the upside, once the Bucs decide whether his future lies in the rotation or as a back-end reliever.

So they have a small army of hurlers in contention for that fifth spot, but two questions remain - do they want a pair of unproven arms in the rotation, at least during the first three months of the year before Morton and Cole are ready, and do they have a fallback if McDonald can't get back on the bike?

That's going to require them to find at least one more arm with a track record. From what we've seen - and they've been associated with just about every third tier pitcher in the market, which tells us they're at least acting with some due diligence - these are the most likely candidates on the market:

LHP John Lannan, 28, was non-tendered by the Nats and is a player the Bucs have long eyed. The lefty has a 4.01 ERA over six seasons, but with an unwieldy 1.424 WHIP. Last year, Washington shipped him and his $5M salary to AAA, but called him up to replace Stephen Strasburg in September. In six starts, Lannan went 4-1/4.13 and lasted six frames per outing. He's made 30+ starts in three of the four seasons he was a regular rotation arm. With that durability and being a rotation-balancing lefty, our guess is that he's the most likely guy for Pittsburgh to be in on.

RHP Mike Pelfrey, 28, was non-tendered by the Mets. He's 6'7"; which of course tantalizes the Bucs, even if he's not a power pitcher, and has worked at least 184 innings from 2008-11 with a lifetime 4.36 ERA. On the other side of the coin, Scott Boras is his agent, and he had TJ surgery in April. Pelfrey said that he'd be ready by opening day, and is a guy the Bucs have been reported to have some interest in.

The dark horse is LHP Francisco Liriano, 29. Yah, he's thrown to 5.09 & 5.34 ERAs in last two years. But he's had a couple of very nice seasons as part of his resume and still has decent stuff. He intrigues more than a few teams, and the Bucs will check his availability after the market begins to take form when Zach Grienke and the upper level of pitchers settle on deals.

Other pitchers the Pirates have been mentioned as checking out are Milwaukee's Manny Parro and Atlanta's Jairs Jurrjens, though we think they have red flags that even the Bucs can't ignore. And there will be more arms coming free down the line when 40-mans are readjusted for future signings.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Meetings Close Out Quietly For Pirates

The meetings have been pretty quiet for the Buccos. As the GMs scurried to their planes, the final day has so far included:
  • Waiting on Jason Grilli's decision. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweeted that the Bucs, Jays and  the Cubs are the finalists. Several earlier reports said he would take the Bucco offer unless somebody came up with three years. Apparently they didn't, but someone did jack up the ante, so his agent Gary Sheffield is working a silent auction for his services.
  • The Bucs sent RHP Kyle Kaminska to Boston as the PTBNL in the RHP Zach Stewart deal. Kinda makes that traded draft pick look a bit wasted, hey?
  • The FO passed on the MLB Rule 5 draft for the first time since 2004, and took a guy/lost a guy in the minor league portion. The Pirates claimed RHP Ethan Hollingsworth, 25, from the Kansas City Royals. His stat line suggests he's penciled in as AA depth. They gave away 3B Elevys Gonzalez, 23, a good glove player who took a beating trying to hit AA pitching last year.
  • Jay Bay signed a deal with the Mariners for a year, and reportedly for under $1M (with $2M worth of incentives) in an effort to jump start his injury-cursed career. Don't feel too sorry for him, though - the Mets released him after working out a payment plan for the $21M remaining on his NY contract, so he's not doomed to a life of Hamburger Helper.
  • The Rangers signed Evan Meek to a minor league deal with an invite to camp.
  • "Kevin Correia is mulling multiple multi-year offers, including one from Japan"  per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Various reports have at least the Rox and Royals looking him over.
Well, hey, there's always tomorrow.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Bucs Swap Cabrera For Oliver On Day Three

The Bucs made a move today, trading C Ramon Cabrera, a bubble prospect, to Detroit for minor league lefty Andy Oliver, a once hot prospect whose star is falling.

Oliver, 25, got a cup of coffee with Motown in 2010-11, with a 7.11 ERA in 31-2/3 frames and equally unexciting peripherals. He's spent the last three years at AAA Toledo, mostly as a starter but with some bullpen work added in this past season, which looks like his calling - he went 1-0 with a 3.78 ERA in nine appearances out of the bullpen for the Mud Hens and 4-9 with a 5.06 ERA in 19 starts. Oliver has a pretty good farm K rate at 8.5 per nine, but those five walks per game make him a very wild child.

He was a second round pick in the 2009 draft, so fits perfectly into the Bucco once-highly-touted reclamation mold. Oliver was a top ten Tiger prospect, a candidate for their fifth starter at camp, and tosses his heat at 94 MPH, touching 98 with an average curve. But he's clueless as to where the plate is, and that's why Detroit moved him to the pen; good stuff, bad aim. The Bucs have to determine if they want him to continue his conversion to reliever or try to salvage him as a starter.

Cabrera, 23, was a good stick without any pop, with a career .292 BA and 13 HR in five minor league seasons. He's a switch hitter, and projected as an MLB back-up. He would have likely started 2013 at Indy after hitting .276 for Altoona last season.

Other news:
  • Reports say that Jason Grilli may be getting ready to pick a team; the Bucs keep saying they'd like him back and have made an offer, so we should find out where he lands shortly.
  • Free agent righty Mike Pelfrey is getting a lot of play, with the Mariners, Indians, Twins, and others in the mix. The Pirates were connected to him earlier, so the competition is heating up. Pelfrey, 29 in January, had Tommy John surgery in early May and was non-tendered by the Mets last week.
  • With tomorrow morning's Rule 5 draft fast approaching, Neal Huntington told the Pittsburgh Post Gazette's Bill Brink that they "have Rule 5 guys they like but not sure they'll be there at pick number 13."
  • Clint Hurdle told the media that Neil Walker was done with the PT regimen for his back and is now getting in baseball shape for camp.
  • Mark Strittmatter, a Pirate hitting instructor, returned to the Colorado Rockies, where he was a long-time bullpen coach before joining Hurdle here in 2010. He'll be a roving minor league instructor for the Rox.
  • Nate McLouth stayed with Baltimore, inking a one-year deal worth $2M + $500K in possible bonuses. Sean Burnett signed a two-year deal with the Angels, reportedly for $8M. The D-Backs have an offer on the table for Rod Barajas.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Day Two Baseball Meeting News

Well, too bad for Bucco fans - the big news of the day is that Wisconsin's coach Bret Bielema  is leaving for Arkansas, making Pitt fans as nervous as, well, an oft-jilted bride regarding the future of the Panther bossman, longtime Badger #2 Paul Chryst.

But there is a little bit of Bucco baseball to report:

  • The Pirates are supposed to be on lefties John Lannan and Manny Parra, according to a couple of sources. Let's hope they're talking minor league deals. Rob Beirtempfel of the Tribune Review adds lefty Tom Gorzelanny, and righties Jair Jurrjens and Mike Pelfrey to the list of non-tendered pitchers the Bucs are considering.
  • Both Bill Brink of the Post Gazette and Tom Singer of MLB.com observed that Joel Hanrahan isn't the slam dunk of the closer world, as Neal Huntington is finding out. He had optimum trade value last year, but the Bucs couldn't deal him at the deadline for fear the fans - and team - would march to Nutting mansion with tar and torches. Hanny's gonna get moved, but unless he's packaged, not for a whole lot. John Perralto writes that "The Pirates reportedly asked the Detroit Tigers about right-hander Rick Porcello and were turned down." And the longer it takes to move him, the less likely it is the Bucs can lure Jason Grilli back to the fold. We've seen reports that Milwaukee and the Cubs are checking him out.
  • Garrett Jones may be the other part of the package. Biertempfel reported that the Bucs "were rebuffed after offering to send Jones to Seattle for right-hander Taijaun Walker, the Mariners’ top pitching prospect." The FO must have some high hopes. Beside, they have to factor in the loss of 27 HR in the Pirates' punch-and-judy lineup before they deal Jones. He'll still be pretty affordable this season.
  • The Bucs could also sweeten a deal with an outfielder; it looks like Jose Tabata, who the Bucs had pass on winter ball for conditioning, and Alex Presley will duke it out for the fourth OF spot, so that's one area Pittsburgh is a little bit deep at.
  • In case you're wondering, NH told the media yesterday that Russell Martin's signing was the big move of the off season. Our guess is the FO will be working on a couple of mid-to-back end pitchers, an arm or two for the pen, and maybe a vet for the bench. The potential rotation took another shot when Kyle McPherson was yanked from winter ball with "arm fatigue. This is the second time this year that he's been shut down, and that has to be a major concern going forward.
  • Will Carroll of SI tweeted that "Key free agent to watch is Rod Barajas. A team official said he is only catcher capable if catching knuckler. Might tip Dickey deal." For real?
  • Jay Bay is talking seriously with Seattle, and Kevin Correa is getting his tires kicked by the Orioles.
  • Matt Hague is still a Bucco. He passed through waivers and was assigned back to Indy.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Bucco Bits...Baseball Meeting Rumors

Let the hot stove fire up...

  • Per Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times: "I’ve been told that the Mariners have had talks with the Pittsburgh Pirates concerning first baseman/right fielder Garrett Jones. This is just one of many conversations the Mariners have had with various teams, but I’m told that some actual names were bandied about between the squads. One proposal went something along the lines of the left-handed hitting Jones and Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan going to the Mariners with potentially one other throw-in, in exchange for first baseman Justin Smoak, catcher John Jaso and starting pitcher Hector Noesi. Again, I don’t know that this was the only set of names tossed about and you can be pretty certain that it wasn’t." He's right there; the rumor may be a bit dated, given the Russell Martin signing.
  • Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review adds that the Orioles, who have some excess pitching, may be interested in Jones, and that the Bucs are kicking the tires of non-tendered LHP John Lannan.
  • Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports: "R.A. Dickey is under contract for 2013 for $5 million, the sides are negotiating an extension, and if they can't come to an agreement, Dickey likely will be traded...I like him in Pittsburgh best." Of course, a half dozen or so other teams are said to be in the hunt, too, even if the FO agrees with Brown, which is debateable.
  • Lots of Hanny action. Tom Singer of MLB.com writes that "Teams are intrigued by the perceived availability of closer Joel Hanrahan. Even though they are without two other key relievers from this past season -- Jason Grilli is a free agent and Chris Resop was dealt to Oakland -- the Bucs feel better equipped to restock the bullpen and may be interested in turning Hanrahan into a needed starting pitcher." We don't expect the FO to address the bullpen at the meetings, though. Their MO has been to wait out the market to optimize value at the cost of reduced options.
  • Buster Olney of ESPN (via MLB Trade Rumors) reiterates a popular theme: "The Pirates have let other teams know that closer Joel Hanrahan is available and they are looking for starting pitching."
  • Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reinforces that point, tweeting that the "Pirates are definitely trying to add a starting pitcher, but balking so far at prices on both FA and trade market." 
  • Jeff Moore of Rant Sports with a bit of speculation: "I’ve suggested before that Minnesota Twins outfielder Josh Willingham would be a good fit. He’s not a good outfielder, but he’s consistently been a 2-3 win player, and the majority of that production comes from hitting left-handed pitchers, something the Pirates routinely struggled with in 2012."
  • If the Bucs go Rule 5 again, Tom Smith at Rumbunter identifies some likely targets. Tim Williams at Pirates Prospects adds RHP Kyle Heckathorn to the wish list.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Vin Mazzaro

With Jeff Karstens and Chris Resop's departures, RHP Vin Mazzaro, 26, recently acquired from the Royals, suddenly looks like a guy with a long shot to break camp in April. Here's his tale:

Mazzaro grew up in Rutherford, New Jersey, and attended Rutherford High School where he led the team to two consecutive state championships. The Oakland As took him in the third round of the draft, inking him to a $380,000 bonus. He didn't deliver his John Hancock until late in the process, and the righty didn't get his pro start until the following year.

In 2006, Oakland assigned him to Class A Kane County in the Midwest League. It was an aggressive posting for a 19 year old preppie in his first season, the same track the Bucs gave Jameson Taillon. He started 24 games and went 9-9/5.05. None of his peripherals were strong, but he was a level above his head and held his own.

The As were apparently satisfied, moving Mazzaro another step up the ladder to High A Stockton of the California League in 2007. Like the PCL, the Cal is a hitter's league, and Mazzaro went 9-12/5.53. He gave up two less hits per nine and got his whiff rate close to seven, both of which showed progress, but added an extra walk (4.2/9), an early sign of a problem that's unfortunately with him today. Mazzaro made 28 starts covering 153-2/3 innings, so he was showing himself as a pretty durable guy.

Mazzaro had his breakout year in 2008 for the Class AA Midland RockHounds. He went 12-3/1.90 and won the Texas League ERA title. He reached Class AAA at age 21 when he got three starts for the PCL Sacramento River Cats at the season's end. The righty showed better control, getting his Ks up to 6.9 and walks down to 2.4 per nine innings. In December, Baseball America rated Mazzaro as the #8 prospect in Oakland's system.

He started at AAA in 2009, and was strong in limited action (2-2/2.38 in 10 games) as he spent a big chunk of the year at Oakland. Mazzaro made his major league debut on June 2nd against the Chicago White Sox, and took the victory by going 6-1/3 scoreless innings. He remained in their rotation through the end of August, making 17 starts, but didn't show much at the MLB level, putting up a line of 4-9/5.32. Mazzaro gave up a dozen hits and four walks per nine and only had a whiff rate of 5.8, adding up to a WHIP of 1.741.

Mazzaro was back at Sacramento in 2010, and got off to a strong start, going 3-1/3.13 with nine K and four walks per nine. He made one start for KC one start in early May and later in the month he joined the Royals for good, making 18 starts with six relief outings. Mazzara finished up 6-8/4.57, giving up four walks to six whiffs per nine. Top prospect to top gun is never a given transition, as Billy Beane well knows.

So it wasn't a huge surprise when Mazzaro was traded along with minor league pitcher Justin Marks to the Kansas City Royals for OF David DeJesus in November. He came out of camp in 2011 as the fifth starter, but was sent to AAA Omaha to get in some work while waiting out the early season open dates on the KC calendar.

He was shaky for the Storm Kings, and kept there until Bruce Chen went on the DL on May 10th. Mazzaro didn't pitch very well, putting up a slash of 1-1/8.26 split between starting and the pen, yo-yo'ing back and forth between the minors and the show. In 28-1/3 IP, he gave up 39 hits, 15 walks and only struck out 10 batters. A lot of that bad numerology came from one record-setting outing on May 16th against Cleveland, when he surrendered 14 earned runs in 2-1/3 innings. He not only set a Royal futility mark, but...

...According to Elias Sports Bureau, Mazzaro became the first pitcher in modern history to give up 14 runs in less than three innings and the first relief pitcher to yield 14 runs in a game since Tommy Warren of the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1944, Warren's only season in the show. He's the fifth reliever to be charged with 14 earned runs, and the first since Les McCrabb of the 1942 Philadelphia Athletics (McCrabb wouldn't pitch in the majors again until 1950, and that was his last hurrah).

Not to be outdone, STATS LLC chimed in and added that he became the third pitcher since 1947 (along with Milwaukee's Billy Travers vs. Cleveland, 1977 and Oakland's Mike Oquist vs. the Yankees, 1998) to give up 14 runs in a game and the first pitcher to give up 10 runs in an inning since Texas' Scott Feldman against Boston in 2008.

He was scheduled to be the starter the next night, so probably wasn't prepared mentally to hit the hill, but dang! At any rate, he was returned to Omaha the next day. Without that appearance, he pretty well pitched as advertised, putting up a 4.15 ERA in his other half-dozen outings, again split between starting and the pen.

Mazzaro spent the 2012 season traveling between Omaha and KC as a swingman, but was now getting more calls from the pen opposed to starts. He worked better from the pen, but still put up a 4-3/5.73 line in KC. In 44 IP, he gave up 56 hits, 19 walks, and punched out 26 hitters. But he did work better in AAA, going 2-2 with five saves and a 3.63 ERA while keeping his K rate at 8, where it's been for his past three minor league seasons.

On November 20th, 2012 the Royals DFA'ed Mazzaro, and eight days later the Bucs sent DSL pitchers Luis Santos and Luis Rico to KC for him and 1B Clint Robinson. Both sides are happy; Dayton Moore got a couple of young, warm bodies for two guys he was releasing, and Neal Huntington got a third-round reclamation project in Mazzaro and a player he likely considers undervalued in Robinson.

Mazzaro's bread-and-butter pitch is a 92 MPH sinker, with an average slider and a show-me change up. His headache is control; he's walked nearly four batters per nine in the majors. His K rate of 5.5 per nine is as much a product of falling behind as lacking swing-and-miss stuff.

Guys at the MLB level just don't fish a lot (present company excepted); working ahead in the count is every coach's mantra. Moreover, he doesn't miss low, but over the plate, and that's why Mazzaro has given up 38 HR in 286 IP and has a line drive rate of 21%.

As a result, he's posted a 15-21/5.22 lifetime slash over 66 appearances, including 45 starts in parts of four big league seasons covering 286 innings.

Our take is that the Bucs expect him to compete for the Chris Resop role, as his history as a starter isn't very strong at either AAA or the majors and he is a two-pitch pony. Mazzaro is also out of options, so he'll have to make the team out of camp or pass through waivers to be sent to Indy and become organizational depth.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Bucco Bits

A couple of more bits of Bucco news:
  • Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted that the "Pirates have had Joel Hanrahan on the market for a few weeks; they have talked to the Dodgers about Chris Capuano, and other teams, as well."
  • Blaine Blontz of Sports Nation posted that the Bucs haven't given up on bringing Jason Grilli back in the fold yet.
  • The Pirates announced they signed LHP pitcher Mike Zagurski, 29, to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. In 82 MLB outings covering 69 IP over parts of four seasons with the Phils and D-Backs, he has a 1-0/6.13 slash, with 70 K. It's another depth deal.
  • After the Russell Martin deal, Grant Bisbee of Sports Nation took a look at the Bucs Top Ten FA signings over the last two decades. It's not a pretty picture.
  • Jerry Crasnick of ESPN gave an outsider's take on the Pirate organization going into 2013.
  • For those that are planning a road trip to camp, here's the Buccos spring schedule. Pitchers and catchers report on 2/11 and the full squad checks in on 2/14.