Bucs Pass On Cedeno, Maholm, Dewey & Snyder

The Bucs had four contract options going into the off season, for Paul Maholm, Chris Snyder, Ryan Doumit and Ronnie Cedeno, and passed on them all.  Cedeno's was a surprise, not so much based on performance as affordability, a dearth of MLB ready SS's in the system and a weak class of FAs. The others were long expected.

Maholm had an option year worth $9.75M, with a buyout of $750K. Snyder's option was for $6.75M, also with a $750K buyout. Dewey had a double option; if the Pirates picked it up, they would be on the hook for $7.25M in 2012 and $8.25M for 2013. His buyout is $500K. The Pirates may try to cut a deal with Maholm and/or Dewey for a more team-friendly contract, but now they're competing against an open market and that is likely to drive their price beyond the FO's comfort level.

With RC, it looks like a matter of just running out of patience and finally severing ties. His option year was an affordable $3M with a $200K buyout. While his fielding has been above par during his Pittsburgh stay (he came to town in 2009 as part of the Jack Wilson deal with Seattle), Cedeno never showed the day-in and day-out consistency the team sought, just frustrating flashes of his talent when he was on his game. The fact that he spent half of the past season in Clint Hurdle's doghouse had to have an impact, too.

The FO says it will keep the lines of communication open with the four during free agency, meaning that if their price drops significantly, they'll deal. But the catchers are competing in a weak market, as is Cedeno, and a LHP that can take the mound every fifth day has value to contending clubs. So we wouldn't expect them to return, even if the Bucs haven't slammed the door and nailed it shut.

It cost the Bucs $2.2M to release the four, not a very hefty parting gift, and cleared $18.65M in 2011 salary (and $26.75M in 2012 payroll) from the books. But now they have two very big holes to fill behind the plate and at short and need an inning-eater to join the staff.

The internal candidates at short are Chase d'Arnaud, Pedro Ciriaco, and Jordy Mercer. None appear ready to step in everyday, but the Pirates may have decided that this was time to end the Cedeno bottleneck and audition their young infielders. Brock Holt is also in the mix, but at least a year away.

Assuming the Bucs will pass on Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, the free market SS's the Pirates may look at are John McDonald, Clint Barmes, Cesar Izurtis, Yuniesky Betancourt, Nick Punto and Jamey Carroll plus a couple of veteran heads. Rafael Furcal may hit the market, too, but is probably out of the Pirates price range.

The Pirates got through a few weeks without Dewey and Snyder, but Mike McKenry and Matt Pagnozzi haven't shown that they can become a regular tandem behind the plate. Eric Fryer has some promise, but his game needs polished. The wild card is Jason Jaramillo, who is out of options this year but is the most experienced and accomplished catcher remaining in the organization.

The market has a pair of guys that can catch 120 games in Ramon Hernandez and Rod Barajas. The rest are career back-ups or players on the downside of their careers.

The pitching will be a poser, especially with Charlie Morton recovering from surgery. Brad Lincoln may have enough to hold down the bottom of the rotation, but Rudy Owens and Justin Miller hit a wall at Indy while Jeff Locke's audition failed to impress. The FO will kick the tires of Edwin Jackson, Jeff Francis, and Chris Young along with a long list of available back-enders.

During the end of last season and into the fall, the FO has made noise about pulling the trigger on a trade or two to fill in the holes. We'll see where that chatter leads. There haven't been any signs of smoke along that front yet, but the rumors won't really heat up until the winter meetings begin on December 5th.

The first log has been thrown in the hot stove.

• The Braves tweeted that they picked up Eric Hinske's $1.55M option and declined Nate McLouth's, which was $10.65M.
• A-Ram declined his $16M mutual option with the Cubs and will try his luck on the market.
• Javier Lopez agreed to a two-year, $8.5M deal with the Giants.
• Still no word on Octavio Dotel or Zach Duke's options; the betting line is that the Cards will pick up Dotel ($3.5M) and the D-Backs pass on the Zachster ($5.5M).
• Tony LaRussa retired while on top at St. Louis, and there should be a long line forming in St. Louis for the skipper job. He's exactly the kind of guy that opponents hated and the home crowd loved.

Decision Time Approaching

Congrats to the St. Louis Cards. They proved that playing to the last strike is sometimes rewarded by the baseball gods. That's a lesson that the young Buccos should take to heart - grind it out through the dog days, even if it looks like pride is the only thing left to play for.

Of course, it helps when the players who are digging deep are named Pujols, Holliday and Carpenter, with role players like David Freese and the bullpen contributing mightily, and filling in that kind of roster is a job for the FO. And decision time for 2012's roster is just around the corner.

The Pirates have quite a few personnel decisions to make in the coming weeks. The winter meeting starts December 5th, and that's the traditional starting gun for wheeling and dealing.

There's been no smoke concerning free agents Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick, so we're assuming that Lee is going to dive into the FA market, as will Ludwick. They can declare for free agency this week, on November 3rd.

The club also holds options on Paul Maholm, Chris Snyder, Ryan Doumit and Ronny Cedeno. No mystery involved there. The FO has announced that they're not going to tender offers to Maholm or the catchers, and there's been no indication that they're working on signing the three to more team-friendly contracts.

Our guess is that they'll keep RC and allow the rest to dip their toes in the marketplace before talking turkey, especially in the case of the catchers. They have no depth there, and if one of the pair drops into the $3-4M range, the Pirates may have some interest in bringing one of the two back. If they don't fall back to earth, then the Bucs will dust off Plan B, either going the FA route or filling in internally.

The team does have a boatload of players up for arb: Jason Grilli, Joel Hanrahan, Garrett Jones, Jeff Karstens, Evan Meek, Charlie Morton, Ross Ohlendorf, Steve Pearce, Chris Resop, Jose Veras and Brandon Wood.

Pearce and Ohlie are almost certain to be non-tendered, with Veras and Wood on the bubble. We'd be surprised if the others aren't brought back via contract. That deadline is December 12th, a week after the meetings.

But it's the under-the-radar moves that will be telling during the off season. The Pirates, whether they planned to or not, built fan expectations with their first half run. The only way to continue the buzz among the base is to stay competitive - not contending, just competitive - until the young guns like Coles, Taillon, Marte, Bell and company arrive a couple of years down the road.

They can only do that now through free agency; the major league ready guys in the system are already in Pittsburgh. The FO knows it has holes in the pitching, catching, first base and shortstop positions, and have to patch them, in that order.

Even more telling will be the composition of their 40 man roster. November 18th is the deadline to set the rosters for the 2011 Rule 5 draft. The roster already is full, and Kevin Correia has to be added to it from the DL. Maholm, Snyder, Pearce and Kevin Hart are also on the DL, but we assume that they won't be added.

There are, of course, guys likely to be removed without much soul searching - Lee, Ludwick, Aaron Thompson, Brian Burres, Ohlie, Dewey, and possibly Pedro Ciriaco, Daniel McCutchen, Jose Veras, and Xavier Paul.

The balancing act requires that a spot be open for a replacement player - the Pirates are almost assuredly going to bring in a pitcher or two, a catcher and maybe a first baseman - and leave room to protect first-time draft eligible players like Starling Marte, Rudy Owens, Justin Wilson and Matt Hague, along with a handful of others who are on the bubble.

The Cards put a dramatic ending to the 2011 MLB season, and the foundation for 2012 is already being poured in Pittsburgh and around the league.

Third Base

The FO inherited Jose Bautista at third base, and dumped him unceremoniously in 2008, sending him to Toronto for long-gone C Robinzon Diaz and clearing a spot for Andy LaRoche. They also drafted Pedro Alvarez that same season, so the hot corner looked to be in good shape for years down the road.

Well, funny thing about that. La Roche is working on a .226 career BA and looking for work after a gig in Oakland while Pedro is coming off a season that he and the Pirate Nation would like to forget. There was great anticipation for his coming-out party after a hot September in 2010 when he put up a .306/6/27 batting line, but reality set in this year when the April pitchers reclaimed the hill.

The big third basemen hit .191 with 4 homers and 80 K's in 235 at-bats. He tore the cover off the ball at Indy, but there are a long list of folk who crush AAA pitching but can't hit a major league slider. In early May, he was showing some small signs of coming out of his slump before injuring his quad.  By the time he came back in late July, he was lost at the dish.

It's said that the FO wanted El Toro to play winter ball, but he declined. Let's hope he spends the off season in the gym. The Pirates retooled their training staff, and we suspect Pedro - and the teamwide sprain and strain epidemic - had a lot to do with that. Maybe a more specific PT regimen will benefit him and the whole squad. And the team could really use what he brings to the table.

The truth is that right now, Pedro is the lone egg in the Bucs' third base basket. Brandon Wood can field the position, but his .220 average won't help the attack untrack though he does have some pop. Josh Harrison can hit the ball (.272) but has no power to speak of and a questionable mitt. Chase d'Arnaud saw time at the hot corner too, but profiles strictly as a middle infielder.

In the minors, Altoona's Jeremy Farrell, 24, has hit the ball OK, with a career .271 BA, but has neither corner power nor very much leather. A better chance at playing the hot corner belongs to Indy's Jordy Mercer, a shortstop who's played 75 games at third in the minors, although not in 2011. Mercer has some pop in his bat and probably profiles the best at third base among the Bucco minor league prospects now.

The third base FA class is really weak. There's no one who has Pedro's upside, except for A-Ram, on the market. Some hot stove talk involves switching The Pittsburgh Kid to third. While technically viable (Neil Walker was a dandy glove at the hot corner), after two seasons in the show, it looks like his bat profiles well for a middle infielder but it's not very special for an everyday corner infielder. Second base looks like Walker's home.

We once thought sending Pedro to first ASAP was a no brainer, and it may be someday if he regains his stroke. But now the cupboard is bare, and his fielding, while pedestrian, isn't blood curdling, and so there's no compelling reason to add to his challenges by moving him across the diamond. 

The Pirates are between a rock and a hard place right now, playing the waiting game. There's no point in looking for a third baseman until Pedro takes himself out of the running, and a bad sophomore season hardly does that. There is no guarantee that Pedro will even start the year in Pittsburgh, but there is no doubt that the position is his to lose, at least in 2012. The hot corner may require a little baby-sitting while Alvarez looks for his missing mojo, but the two go together now.

First Base

The Bucs were set going into 2011. Veteran Lyle Overbay would man first base and Garrett Jones would platoon with Matt Diaz in right, adding some pop to the Pittsburgh lineup. Well, you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men...and FOs.

Overbay crapped out after a line of .227/8/37 in 103 games and Diaz delivered not one long ball. Alex Presley bumped Garrett Jones to first, and he got bumped in turn by the late season acquisition of Derrek Lee. Steve Pearce was injured again while Matt Hague raked at Indy. It all adds up to one highly unsettled position going into 2012.

The Pirates would like Lee to baby-sit the position, but that seems improbable. The 36 year old Lee is a free agent, and his 2011 stat line - .267/19/59 - will probably net him a nice deal on the market. And he was in the City during the Pirate nosedive, with no first-hand experience of Pittsburgh's boisterous crowds or winning baseball, so there's not much to recommend the Buccos to him except for a juicy overpay.

Internally, the Pirates could go with Jones, 30, ideally in a platoon situation. His lifetime BA against righties is .275 compared to .199 vs southpaws, with equally disparate production numbers. So getting 350-400 at-bats against righties wouldn't be a bad thing, even if his glove is at best average.

Finding a righty to compliment Jones might be a problem. Steve Pearce is out of options and the FO is probably out of patience with him, even with the occasional flash.

Matt Hague, 26, is unproven, but has hit at all levels in the minors (.302 career BA), is a good defender at first, and has some experience and the arm to play third. He also has noticeable splits, so a platoon, if he's ready for the show, should be the answer.

Hague doesn't provide much home run power, but he's had 30 doubles or more over the past three seasons. But he'll have to shine to come out of camp with the team. Like Presley, the FO wants a follow-up year before moving him up.

And after Hague, there's not a lot more in the cupboard. Third round pick Alex Dickerson, 21, is in the process of being converted to first base, and after a strong start at State College, expected for a major-college player (he played for Indiana), he should be fast-tracked to High A Bradenton in 2012.

The other guys all have holes and need to pick it up to make the radar. Matt Curry, 23, is the highest rated of the remaining players, though he hit a bump at Altoona last year, batting just .242 with a 26% K rate. But he was moved aggressively and skipped a level, so his second go-round with the Curve should give us a better idea of his potential.

There are a couple of FAs floating around that could fill the bill in Pittsburgh. Casey Kotchman (29) could be a longer term fit, although he doesn't bring much pop to the lineup. Carlos Pena was a player the Bucs were supposed to have interest in, and he's on the market this off season. The rest of the pack, minus Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, are quite pedestrian; that's why Lee may take his chances in the market this year.

Like much of the infield, first base is a position with a variety of routes available, and the off season will tell which road they choose.

Catching

Well, ya can't say the Bucs didn't give everyone a look - Chris Snyder, Jason Jaramillo, Ryan Doumit, Dusty Brown, Wyatt Toregas, Eric Fryer, Mike McKenry, Matt Pagnozzi...heck, everyone caught except for the anointed one, Tony Sanchez. Go figure.

Anyway, you're all aware of the travails of the Pittsburgh catching corps. You're also probably aware that both Dewey and Snyder are in costly option years - $7.25/$8.25 in the next two years for Doumit and $6.75M for Snyder in 2012. Both will be bought out, and it's possible if unlikely that the FO will try to sign one or the other to a more team-friendly contract.

The Pirates template is for a defense-first receiver who can call a game. Neither of those attributes are generally associated with Dewey. While his stick is welcome (.271/67/266 in 611 games), he can't seem to stay in one piece very long. In fact, he's started behind the plate 100 times in a season just once, and had over 300 at-bats twice.

Chris Snyder, while a well respected glove man, came to the Pirates with a rep for a bad back and sure enough, a herniated disc in early June ended his 2011 season after just 34 games and 119 at-bats. He started the year on the 15-day DL because of a lower back injury. It's too bad he's so fragile, because he was the perfect candidate for the spot.

Of the other guys, Brown and Toregas have left the team, Fryer will start in the higher minors, and Jaramillo, McKenry and Pagnozzi are returning. There are a few catchers out on the free market, but they are the usual second-line suspects. To hold the fort a couple of seasons until the next wave hits Pittsburgh, the Bucs could go for 36 year olds Ramon Hernandez or Rod Barajas.

It's an interesting position that Jaramillo, McKenry & Pagnozzi are in. If the Bucs don't make a move, two of the three will be catching quite a bit in Pittsburgh. And that's not real good news.

Jaramillo, 29, is probably the best two-way guy of the trio, even with a lifetime BA of .235. The switchhitter  is a good glove, and has started 90 games the past three seasons for the Bucs. But when the two big league catchers went down, JJ was out with what became a lengthy elbow injury caused when he was caught flush by a foul ball and it opened the door for the catcher derby.

That gave Scooby Doo McKenry, 26, a chance, after Brown and Toregas auditions in the show fizzled. He was a good receiver and game-caller, but not so hot at throwing out runners, making plays at the plate or hitting a baseball.

Eric Fryer, 26, got a shot, too, and looked OK if very green. Jaramillo came back eventually, but Pagnozzi, 29, a late-season waiver claim taken from Colorado is widely seen as a challenger to JJ as a Pirate insurance policy. Pagnozzi is reputedly another good glove, bad hit backstop.

The trio can't hit a lick - Jaramillo's lifetime BA is .235, Scooby-Doo's is .213, and Pagnozzi's has a .276 MLB average, but in just 76 at-bats; his minor league BA is .220 in 625 games, a little better indicator, we think, of his stick. To make it a little more interesting, JJ is out of the options, while the other pair each have one remaining.

And it looks like that's the trio that will remain in the 2012 mix from the last season's catcher posse, with Fryer still in the organization but learning his craft. It's possible that two of the three will split catching duties, although the main scenario involves a three-way fight for the back-up role.

It's more likely the Pirates will bring someone aboard to catch in the 110-game range like Barajas or  Hernandez. We know Chris Iannetta is available, and the Bucs were asking about Geovany Soto.

The Pirate future is invested in Tony Sanchez and Eric Fryer. Sanchez looked like he had it all going at Bradenton in 2010 before a broken jaw limited his season to just 59 games. The lack of reps showed at Altoona, when he hit just .241 although his defensive skills looked sharp. The reports we've seen say he needs to shorten his swing. The more he goes for the fence, the less solid contact he makes, a familiar conundrum for young hitters.

But now it looks like he'll start 2012 with the Curve, and that means he's at least a year behind the schedule the Pirates had him on as the number one pick in 2009.

Fryer came to Pittsburgh as part of the 2009 Yankee deal for Eric Hinske. He began 2011 with Altoona, where he hit .345/5/16 in 37 games. In 38 Indy games, he put up a line of .269/2/11. He needs time behind the dish; he's only caught 225 games in the minors. That's partially due to being fairly athletic, as he's spent considerable time playing the outfield, and also because he's been Sanchez's caddy, backing him up rather than starting.

While he's no sure thing, he does have some potential, and we'll see if the Pirates give him some time to develop his skills. Fryer is penciled in to start out at Indy, but whether he'll be the man or continue as a jack-of-all-trades player will tell us a lot about how he's considered by the FO.

There are some intriguing prospects at the A level like Ramon Cabrera who won the Florida State batting crown with a .343 average, but all are works in progress and don't appear to be fast-track candidates.

Catching is a position in flux, and the Pirates have several routes they can take in 2012 to fill the spot, going internal, signing a FA, or swinging a trade. Add it to your checklist of hot stove items that need addressed.

Notes

- Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors has his offseason outlook for the Bucs. Among his points:

• Expect the team to pass on Ryan Doumit & Chris Snyder, and look at guys like Ramon Hernandez and Rod Barajas for the short term.
• Check out Paul Maholm's perceived value before reaching a final decision on letting him go.
• Sign all the arb-eligible relievers.
• Pluck another Kevin-Correia-type pitcher from the FA class.
• Pass on the top FA's because the team isn't close enough to winning for it to make financial sense.
• Try to lock up McCutch and Neil Walker.

- Rob Biertempfel of the Trib reports in his notes that at least one group is pleased with the Bucs 2011 performance. Root Sports Pittsburgh saw its ratings for Pirates games jump by 49 percent over last year.

- John Manuel and Jim Callis of Baseball America rate the Buc's 2011 draft as the third best in baseball. They think highly of Gerritt Cole and Josh Bell, and have both rated highly in their "Closest to the Majors" category, which is good news indeed for the ever-patient Pirate Nation.

- RHP James McDonald is 27 today.

- It's early in the fall season, but Pirate OF prospect Robbie Grossman is hitting .375 with 4 homers and 10 RBI after 13 games for Mesa in the AFL.

Second Base

At the turn of the decade, second base was a one-and-out position for the Pirates. Warren Morris, Pat Meares, Pokey Reese, Jeff Reboulet and Abraham Nunez all manned the spot.

Then in the middle of the decade, Jose Castillo claimed second from 2004-06 before Freddy Sanchez took the position. He lasted three years before being shipped to the Giants for Tim Alderson, and Delwyn Young and Aki Iwomura took their shots there.

That leads us to Neil Walker, who came up in 2010 as a utility infielder and ended up the regular second baseman a heartbeat later in one of JR's more inspired moves. The good news is that The Pittsburgh Kid is young (26), profiles nicely for a middle infield bat (.280/24/189 in 286 games), and made great strides in fielding the position. He still has room to grow, considering he had all of 21 games of minor-league experience at second before being thrown in the fire.

More good news is not only is Walker young, but he's an ironman. A throwback player, he needs to be dragged off the field for a day off, and he only had three in 2011.

The bad news is that his backup on the depth chart was Ronny Cedeno, the shortstop, when the 2011 season started (Chase d'Arnaud & Josh Harrison are the current reserves). And that about tells us where the Bucs are at the position.

When Sanchez left, Delwyn Young was tossed in the position in hopes that he could hold the fort until Shelby Ford or Brian Friday were ready. Well, Young is playing AAA for the Phils (as an outfielder), Friday is considered an organizational player now, and Ford is a minor-league free agent. How's that for depth? So they brought in a hobbled Aki Iwomura to start with Bobby Crosby and then Josh Rodriguez as security blankets until Walker showed up.

The Pirates actually have quite a few guys that can play the spot as their middle infielders have been multi-tasking in the minors. It's just that the second base list is just about the same as the shortstop list.

SS candidates d'Arnaud, Jordy Mercer and Brock Holt have all been given substantial time at second. d'Arnaud has played 290 games at SS and 64 at second, Mercer 278/83 (with 75 games at third) and Brock 126/116, almost an even split.

Last year's big league backup, 24 year old Harrison, played 152 games at second in the minors to 161 games at the hot corner. He started five games in Pittsburgh at second, and looked OK in the field while hitting a quiet .272, quiet because he has little power and less discipline. But at least we know that he's not overmatched at the plate, can put a ball in play and fits into Clint Hurdle's go-go attack with his wheels.

d'Arnaud, 24, despite his game changing speed, had his problems with the stick. He struck out 36 times in 143 at-bats and drew just four walks while hitting .217. Many project him as a better second baseman than shortstop, but he only saw three innings at second base in 2011.

Mercer, 25, has been a 30 double - 15 homer guy so far in the minors, and is a good fielder with a strong arm that can play both middle infield positions and third. But he had a rough start at Indy when he was promoted during the year, and only a strong September allowed him to finish with a .239 BA. He'll need to be added to the 40-man roster this year.

Holt, 23, played his first full professional season this year after being injured in 2010, and hit .289 with a .356 OBP at Altoona. He's a contact hitter who will draw a few walks and steal the occasional base, although he's not a burner. Holt projects to be a second baseman because of his range and arm. 

Brian Friday won't be 26 until December, but he's already been bypassed by the above group. He's a steady defender, puts the ball in play and has a decent eye, but was the utility guy for the Tribe and won't be on the 40-man roster.

Our take is that no one in the above group is ready to chase The Pittsburgh Kid.  We think the likeliest to be kept on the major league roster is Josh Harrison because of the questions surrounding Pedro Alvarez. Who knows if El Toro will even start the year in Pittsburgh?

But another from that group could step in, depending on the status of Brandon Wood. We're not as sure as some of the other Pirate followers that he'll be let loose in the off season, not so much due to his performance as much as the need to fill the hot corner with a guy with a little muscle should Pedro falter again. But he didn't see much playing time in September, so we'll see how the Pirates craft their infield or 2012.

It Was 40 Years Ago Today...

...that Steve Blass threw his gem against the Baltimore O's to take the seventh game of the 1971 World Series 2-1, capped by his iconic leap into Bob Robertson's arms. His four hitter was backed by a Roberto Clemente homer and Pops Stargell RBI single, just enough to send Mike Cuellar to his second defeat of the October Classic, both times outdueled by Blass.

The series started with the Bucs losing the first two games at Baltimore, getting thumped 5-3 after blowing a 3-0 lead and then 11-3. But they came back to win the next three at Pittsburgh in the friendly confines of TRS. Pitching fueled that home-sweet-home run. Blass started with a complete game, three hit 5-1 win, followed by Bruce Kison's 6+ inning scoreless relief stint in the next contest, which was the first night game in Series history. The cherry on top was Nellie Briles' complete game, two hit shutout in the fifth match.

With a chance to take it in six, the Bucs faltered 3-2 in ten innings. Bob Moose started and Dave Guisti tossed three shutout innings from the pen, but Bob Miller was tagged with the loss. Hey, it only put off the inevitable by a game, and we know that the Bucs do like to take their series to seven. Drama is everything, no?

Arriba and Manny Sanguillen carried the Buc attack, hitting .414 and .379 respectively, but the O's staff held the Pirates to a .235 team average. The Big Bad Bird's fared worse; they had a collective .205 BA. Blass led the Pittsburgh staff with two complete game wins and a 1.00 ERA; Dave McNally was 2-1 for the Orioles with a 1.98 ERA, starting twice and coming out of the pen twice.

Danny Murtaugh retired after the win, although he would return in 1974. The Great One would have one more season in the sun, reaching 3,000 hits in 1972 before being called home. And the Bucs would be back at the end of the decade to face the same foes, with the same results.

The 1971 Pirate championship team, celebrated at PNC Park this summer.

Pellas on the Pirates: The Case for Trading (Gulp!) Andrew McCutchen

No, wait! Hear me out! Put the pitchforks and torches down....that's it.....deep breaths, everybody. I'm here tonight, with Pirates Nation in front of me and PNC Park in the background, to discuss a course of action that might---might---possibly make sense for the Pirates at this point in time. That course of action is: trading Andrew McCutchen.

Before you have me keelhauled, consider these points: first and most importantly, it appears that he doesn’t want to be here long term. Not really. Why’s that, you ask? Well, according to at least one voice in the blogosphere, the much-maligned (often rightly, but not in this case) Pirates front office actually tried to emulate the Rays’ early career, pre-emptive, big-but-not-obscene-money signing of Evan Longoria when the team suits offered Andrew a long term deal of his own---and this not once, but twice.

Both times, Andrew said no. Before you respond by saying, “What’s so unusual about that? Players and their agents do that sort of thing all the time”, consider the examples of two other current major leaguers: the Angels’ Jared Weaver and our own Jose Tabata.

Weaver, one of the best starting pitchers in the American League, ignored the, ahem, “advice” of his agent, Scot Beelze-Boras, and signed a 6 year contract extension for about $85 million. His reasons? One, he was happy in Anaheim and wanted to put the distraction of contract negotiations behind him so he could get back to playing ball. Two, as he himself put it, “If I can’t live the rest of my life on $85 million, I’m pretty stupid”.

In other words, how much does any one man need….really? Once you factor in taxes and living expenses, both of which are going to be considerably higher in the large markets Andrew is presumably eying once his time in Pittsburgh is done, is a few million more or even $10 or $20 million more in another city really going to make that much difference to a player’s bottom line?

I don’t think so, yet Andrew has said no. Twice.

And now Tabata. While no one disputes the fact that Jose is not the elite or near-elite talent that Andrew is, nevertheless he’s pretty good. Tabata, like Weaver, told his agent(s) to jump in the lake and signed an early career contract extension that made him a multimillionaire while also giving him the opportunity to play right field in Pittsburgh ---like his longtime role model, Roberto Clemente

Certainly Tabata is no Clemente. But there is no doubt---zero---that he can really hit (just not with a lot of home runs) and really play defense and even steal some bases. With him, it’s all a question of whether he can stay healthy. If he’s on the field, he’s hitting and he’s catching everything in the vicinity, it’s that simple.

But the most important factor with him is this: he wants to be here. Obviously. So he got a deal done, and done quickly. Not so McCutchen. Why not?

Of course, it’s entirely possible that Andrew is waiting to see what will happen with the current rebuilding plan before he commits to staying in town past the maximum six years the Pirates can retain him before he hits the open market as a free agent. You only live once, Andrew is a big market talent, and maybe he wants the experience of being in the national spotlight to look back upon as he bounces his grandchildren on his knees. Okay. I get that.

But it only returns us to the first point: he doesn’t, or at least apparently doesn’t, want to be here, in Pittsburgh , long term. At minimum, he’s given no indication that that is what he wants to do.

Well, okay. Let’s assume for the sake of this discussion that Andrew wants to bolt for the brighter lights and bigger stage once his six year stay in Pittsburgh is over. Or even sooner than that, if the right scenario were to present itself. If…IF…that’s true, it makes sense to deal him now or in the next off season at the latest. That’s because he’ll be all the more valuable in a down economy as a trading chip who combines elite or near-elite talent with a salary that is not yet in the stratospheric locale that it will reach soon enough.

In other words, right now, and for the next year or two, he will be just about the most bang for the buck any team could possibly have in its starting outfield. There might be a handful of better ballplayers around the majors, but few if any play as well as Andrew does for the money he makes. Therefore, his potential value in trade is never going to be as high as it is now and for the next year or two. After that, his salary will zoom climb, even over his last couple of Pirates seasons if he spends the full six years in black and gold.

In other words, there’s more than one way to maximize the asset that is Andrew McCutchen. Hanging onto him for six years as the reluctant centerpiece of the current rebuilding project, all the while making long term, multimillion dollar offer after fruitless offer, is not the only road down which the team can travel.

Trading him alone or with other major and/or minor league Pirates in a blockbuster deal that would net 2 or 3 or 4 players in return, in some combination of productive, current major leaguers and top prospects, should definitely not be out of the question for the Pirates. Of course, trusting Neal Huntington to be the man who would pull the trigger on such a trade is….well, it would be interesting, let’s put it that way.

The GM who has proven more than capable of making very astute junkheap pickups like Garrett Jones is the same one who evidently either can’t be bothered with the most basic medical due diligence (Iwamura, Hart, Ascanio, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen, Matt Diaz) or else is knowingly gambling on players who are already hurt before they ever get here.

We’re talking about the guy who gave former National League batting champion Freddy Sanchez to the Giants in exchange for a fading A-ball pitcher with diminished velocity. We’re talking about the guy who is hoping against hope that Bryan Morris will prove to be some modicum of return for Jason Bay, because everyone else the Pirates got in exchange for Bay long ago washed out of Pittsburgh and down the Ohio River.

On the other hand, this is also the guy who made excellent trades with the Yankees and the Dodgers and turned the likes of Octavio Dotel, Xavier Nady, and Damaso Marte into Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, and others.

Andrew McCutchen, without question, is a very good major league baseball player. But he is not great. Definitely not. Want proof? In terms of his raw athletic tools, he is no worse than a righthanded batting version of Carl Crawford. Another player from the recent past who was quite similar to Andrew was Marquis Grissom.

But despite being in the same class as those two and other fleet-footed types in terms of pure foot speed, McCutchen is not a good base stealer. In fact, he’s barely average. And he is a significantly lesser player in terms of his base thievery than a guy with his speed ought to be. Even in an era of baseball dominated by sabermetric thinking - which postulates that it is better to steal smaller numbers of bases at an 80% or better success rate than to force the action in higher risk situations - even with all that, any player with McCutchen’s blazing speed should be logging 40 or more swipes every season.

Andrew’s career high of 33, set last season, is a respectable total but nowhere close to what he is capable of doing. And those 33 steals came with 10 caught stealing. This year his total regressed to 23, with another 10 caught stealing. His success rate over the past two seasons combined is a middling 74%, though it is higher for his career thanks to his 22 for 27 effort as a rookie. But the rather surprising downward trend in his steals leads us to our final point.

When I watch Andrew McCutchen, I see a player who, while definitely, indisputably, and consistently pretty good since the very start of his career, is also a guy who’s just not getting much better as he approaches what should be his peak seasons. This is very odd, especially for a guy with his talent, but it is not without precedent in major league history.

Fred Lynn, the old Boston Red Sox standby, rarely approached and never exceeded his incredible rookie season despite a long and productive career. Andrew’s rookie season, which did not begin until June of that year, did not approach the heights that Lynn reached, but he still posted a .286 average average with 12 home runs and 22 steals. This year his average sank to .259, though this was offset to some extent by his career-high 23 home runs.

As mentioned above, his steals also fell off this year from 33 to 23, and he had the worst success rate of his career, just under 70%. Now, maybe he’s still a young guy who’s “adjusting to the adjustments” and he’ll put it all together next year or the year after. But maybe not. Maybe he’s as good as he’ll ever be, right now, in which case it would be better to get another team to overpay for his potential, especially if by overpaying they strengthen our lineup at 2 or 3 or 4 positions.

I can already see some of you picking up your pitchforks again, and I can already hear the hue and cry that will certainly be the result of this piece. And if McCutchen had already said and done the things that would indicate he really, truly wants to be in Pittsburgh for the long haul, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. But he hasn’t. And if trading him would actually make this team stronger, overall, from top to bottom, it’s something the “best management team in sports” should strongly consider.

Head To Forbes Field...

Well, the little bit of brick wall that's left of it, anyway. It's October 13th, time for the 51st anniversary of the shot heard 'round the City, celebrating the day that Billy Maz became a Pittsburgh legend. The festivities start at noon, highlighted by the NBC broadcast that will be replayed by the wall on Roberto Clemente Drive beside Mazeroski Field. Don't let the gray skies deter ya; there's a tent up in Schenley Plaza if it rains on the Pirate parade. Beside, you never know what old Bucco may stop by to say "hi."

The home run:


And some home video of Maz being honored last year at PNC: