MLB Trade Rumors has a piece written by Mike Axisa on ex-Bucco OF'er Nate McLouth titled "Make or Break Year: Nate McLouth."
It covers the Pirates selling high and Nate the Great, now 29, hitting the free market after the season. Was 2010 just the year from hell or did the NL pitchers put together a book or McLouth? We'll find out soon.
Showing posts with label nate mclouth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nate mclouth. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Thursday, February 5, 2009
A Couple of Interviews
Todd Wright of Sporting News Radio got on the horn and talked to Nate McLouth just before the Super Bowl (hey, better late than never, right?) Here's what McLouth had to say:
* He's not nervous about repeating his All-Star season, even though he admits that hitting is a case of overcoming failure. McLouth said he's excited because he knows he can "improve a lot," specifically citing consistency at the plate.
* He had this to say about the Steelers (and we suspect it carries over to baseball): McLouth likes them because they're "not flashy, but hard-nosed." And he gave the 'Burghers their props - "Steeler fans are crazy," he admitted, adding that they're bonkers supporting all the sports teams in the City, even the Bucco faithful.
* Finally, he said this about the newly discarded red unis - he's glad they tossed them in the garbage. McLouth claimed that he felt like he was "working in the drive-through at McDonalds" every time he pulled the reds on.
He's a big fan of the black & gold scheme shared by the City teams. "Those colors are always associated with the City, and people are proud of them."
Frank Coonelly had his periodic chat with the fans yesterday, and here's a few things he said:
* About the 2009 season - "I would never want to make predictions as to the number of games that we will win, but I am confident that we will play better than we did in 2008 and surprise a lot of people with our performance."
He says improved pitching and having Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss start the year with the Pirates are big reasons for his optimism.
* Why the lack of big free agent interest - "As we have said, we need to build our team from a core of premiere players signed and developed here in Pittsburgh. Secondly, because we value our high Draft choices so highly, it would be very difficult for us to lose a first- or second-round Draft choice as compensation for signing a Type-A free agent."
But there is someone out there he has some love for, although all reports say he wants to go to LA if Manny overplays his hand - "(Adam) Dunn is an interesting free agent because he would not cost us a Draft pick. Right now, the salaries that he is expecting do not fit within our budget. If other moves were made and Dunn fit within our budget, he is someone who we would consider."
* And finally, the plan as he sees it - "We are building this team in the same manner as the Minnesota Twins have built their clubs over the last several years and as the Tampa Bay Rays built their World Series team...We are aggressively spending money on the Draft and in the international markets, and in the Dominican Republic in particular. We have also acquired premiere players via trade. In short, we need to sign and/or develop our own premiere players and then retain them in the system for as long as possible."
And he made a point of adding that the suits are not looking at a window that's down the road: "We expect to win in 2009 and would not find it acceptable to attempt to build a team that will not win until 2010 or 2012."
We'll see about that one.
* He's not nervous about repeating his All-Star season, even though he admits that hitting is a case of overcoming failure. McLouth said he's excited because he knows he can "improve a lot," specifically citing consistency at the plate.
* He had this to say about the Steelers (and we suspect it carries over to baseball): McLouth likes them because they're "not flashy, but hard-nosed." And he gave the 'Burghers their props - "Steeler fans are crazy," he admitted, adding that they're bonkers supporting all the sports teams in the City, even the Bucco faithful.
* Finally, he said this about the newly discarded red unis - he's glad they tossed them in the garbage. McLouth claimed that he felt like he was "working in the drive-through at McDonalds" every time he pulled the reds on.
He's a big fan of the black & gold scheme shared by the City teams. "Those colors are always associated with the City, and people are proud of them."
Frank Coonelly had his periodic chat with the fans yesterday, and here's a few things he said:
* About the 2009 season - "I would never want to make predictions as to the number of games that we will win, but I am confident that we will play better than we did in 2008 and surprise a lot of people with our performance."
He says improved pitching and having Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss start the year with the Pirates are big reasons for his optimism.
* Why the lack of big free agent interest - "As we have said, we need to build our team from a core of premiere players signed and developed here in Pittsburgh. Secondly, because we value our high Draft choices so highly, it would be very difficult for us to lose a first- or second-round Draft choice as compensation for signing a Type-A free agent."
But there is someone out there he has some love for, although all reports say he wants to go to LA if Manny overplays his hand - "(Adam) Dunn is an interesting free agent because he would not cost us a Draft pick. Right now, the salaries that he is expecting do not fit within our budget. If other moves were made and Dunn fit within our budget, he is someone who we would consider."
* And finally, the plan as he sees it - "We are building this team in the same manner as the Minnesota Twins have built their clubs over the last several years and as the Tampa Bay Rays built their World Series team...We are aggressively spending money on the Draft and in the international markets, and in the Dominican Republic in particular. We have also acquired premiere players via trade. In short, we need to sign and/or develop our own premiere players and then retain them in the system for as long as possible."
And he made a point of adding that the suits are not looking at a window that's down the road: "We expect to win in 2009 and would not find it acceptable to attempt to build a team that will not win until 2010 or 2012."
We'll see about that one.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Nate McLouth - Lowballed?
We know that Nate McLouth and the Bucs have miles to go before they agree on a contract. They just swapped arbitration figures, and McLouth asked for $3.8M; the team countered with $2.75M. Either way, it's a nice jump from the $425K he got in 2008, his first year as a starter and a breakout season by every matrix.
He proved durable, playing in 152 games and getting a team-leading 597 at bats. Mclouth's line was .276/26/94 with 113 runs scored and 23 stolen bases. He ran up a .356 OBP, .497 slugging %, and an OPS of .853. Oh, and was a gold glove CF. Pretty good stuff, no matter how you look at. And he wants the Benjamins those stats say that he deserves.
Whoa, say the suits. Can he repeat that performance on the field? Do those numbers, as swell as they are for a CF, hold up as well for a corner OF spot, his probable future position? And his power and RBI production do take a beating when he faces a lefty - .261 with a .710 OPS and only 3 of his 26 long balls.
The Pirates are apparently basing his contract on Ryan Doumit's recent deal. Doumit signed for a guaranteed three years, carrying him through arbitration, for $2.05M, $3.55M, and $5.1M, with a one-time option for $7.25M and $8.25M in 2012-13.
His line was .318/15/69 with 71 runs tallied, though he played a lot less - 116 games, and 465 at bats. Doumit plays a position that is harder to fill than McLouth's, and his production splits aren't as skewered, though he rakes lefties noticeably better than righties - but he still hits RHPs at a .314 clip with an .849 OPS, not too shabby.
Personally, GW thinks that the Bucs got a pretty sweet deal with Doumit. Then again, his history is that he's in the tub a lot, and our guess is both sides recognized that when striking the deal, balancing performance and injury backgrounds.
Instead of comparing apples and oranges, let's take a look at a couple of other players in the same boat as McLouth. The Dodgers are playing out the exact scenario with Andre Ethier, who wants $3.75M and is being offered $2.65M by LA.
His line was .305/20/77 with 90 runs scored. Ethier's OBP is .375, his slugging percentage is .510, combined for an OPS of .885, all a tick above McLouth. Ethier's splits are terrible - he mashes against righties, but hits .243 with a .692 OPS against portsiders. And he plays a corner position, RF. Comparable player, comparable demand.
Or would could look across state and see what the Phillies did to tie up RF Jatson Werth, a first-time arb eligible player. His line was .273/24/67 with 73 runs scored. Werth's OBP was .363, slugging % .498, and OPS .861. He struggles against RHP, hitting .255 with a .767 OPS.
That didn't bother the City of Brotherly Love's suits a bit - they signed him for the next two years, giving him a $1M signing bonus, $2M for 2009, and $7M in 2010. That's on the high side in 2010, we think, but hey - agents and players are looking at arbitration as a poor man's free agency in these economic times.
The battle in Pittsburgh is to set Nate McLouth's baseline salary through his arbitration years. The higher it is, the brighter McLouth's future earning power becomes, and the Bucs want to keep it down while they have him under control. Hey, someone else may want to cash in on a good season, too.
In the Pirate's defense, they generally want back-to-back performances before signing an arb-eligible guy on the dotted line. But they let that balloon get pricked when they inked Ryan Doumit, who never got more than 252 at bats before 2008.
Our take? McLouth has a good case. The midpoint between he and the Pirates is $3.275M. If they can get him anywhere near that figure, they should sign him. His number looks closer to the going rate than the suit's offer. After all, you eventually have to pay the guys that come through for you.
Unless, of course, the Yankees come courting...
He proved durable, playing in 152 games and getting a team-leading 597 at bats. Mclouth's line was .276/26/94 with 113 runs scored and 23 stolen bases. He ran up a .356 OBP, .497 slugging %, and an OPS of .853. Oh, and was a gold glove CF. Pretty good stuff, no matter how you look at. And he wants the Benjamins those stats say that he deserves.
Whoa, say the suits. Can he repeat that performance on the field? Do those numbers, as swell as they are for a CF, hold up as well for a corner OF spot, his probable future position? And his power and RBI production do take a beating when he faces a lefty - .261 with a .710 OPS and only 3 of his 26 long balls.
The Pirates are apparently basing his contract on Ryan Doumit's recent deal. Doumit signed for a guaranteed three years, carrying him through arbitration, for $2.05M, $3.55M, and $5.1M, with a one-time option for $7.25M and $8.25M in 2012-13.
His line was .318/15/69 with 71 runs tallied, though he played a lot less - 116 games, and 465 at bats. Doumit plays a position that is harder to fill than McLouth's, and his production splits aren't as skewered, though he rakes lefties noticeably better than righties - but he still hits RHPs at a .314 clip with an .849 OPS, not too shabby.
Personally, GW thinks that the Bucs got a pretty sweet deal with Doumit. Then again, his history is that he's in the tub a lot, and our guess is both sides recognized that when striking the deal, balancing performance and injury backgrounds.
Instead of comparing apples and oranges, let's take a look at a couple of other players in the same boat as McLouth. The Dodgers are playing out the exact scenario with Andre Ethier, who wants $3.75M and is being offered $2.65M by LA.
His line was .305/20/77 with 90 runs scored. Ethier's OBP is .375, his slugging percentage is .510, combined for an OPS of .885, all a tick above McLouth. Ethier's splits are terrible - he mashes against righties, but hits .243 with a .692 OPS against portsiders. And he plays a corner position, RF. Comparable player, comparable demand.
Or would could look across state and see what the Phillies did to tie up RF Jatson Werth, a first-time arb eligible player. His line was .273/24/67 with 73 runs scored. Werth's OBP was .363, slugging % .498, and OPS .861. He struggles against RHP, hitting .255 with a .767 OPS.
That didn't bother the City of Brotherly Love's suits a bit - they signed him for the next two years, giving him a $1M signing bonus, $2M for 2009, and $7M in 2010. That's on the high side in 2010, we think, but hey - agents and players are looking at arbitration as a poor man's free agency in these economic times.
The battle in Pittsburgh is to set Nate McLouth's baseline salary through his arbitration years. The higher it is, the brighter McLouth's future earning power becomes, and the Bucs want to keep it down while they have him under control. Hey, someone else may want to cash in on a good season, too.
In the Pirate's defense, they generally want back-to-back performances before signing an arb-eligible guy on the dotted line. But they let that balloon get pricked when they inked Ryan Doumit, who never got more than 252 at bats before 2008.
Our take? McLouth has a good case. The midpoint between he and the Pirates is $3.275M. If they can get him anywhere near that figure, they should sign him. His number looks closer to the going rate than the suit's offer. After all, you eventually have to pay the guys that come through for you.
Unless, of course, the Yankees come courting...
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Pirates in the News
A couple of Pirates were rewarded for their play of last season, in different but equally satisfying ways.
In a surprise, Nate McLouth won one of the Rawling Golden Gloves, joining Carlos Beltran and Shane Victorino in the OF. It's a nice honor, being voted on by the managers and players.
Now if you look at run replacement, zone ranges, VORP's and all that other Billy Beane mumbo-jumbo, McLouth is near the bottom of the NL pack as far as snagging a baseball.
And while he did a nice job patrolling PNC (yah, Will, even I admit it), Nate won't be mistaken for Andy Van Slyke, Billy Virdon, or heck, maybe even Kenny Lofton, among Bucs that could fetch a ball like a dog chasing a frisbee.
Your eyes will tell you that McLouth has trouble with balls hit at him, and that he leaves his feet a little more often than a sensible CF should.
But ya know what? The kid came to camp and he had to earn the job. His motor ran at 100% all year, and for every ball that ricocheted past him, he ran down three. Nate was great enough to play the All-Star game, and his throw kept it interesting.
While he only made one error all year, we understand the honor went to him just as much for his bat as his mitt. We also understand that the reason the stat freaks don't give him any love is because of the terrible Pirate pitching. Willie Mays couldn't glove the shots that were roped like clockwork into center.
So we say great job, Nate, and we can't wait until you're in left field, where you'll be a gold glover without any caveats.
Happy Bucco camper #2 is Evan Meek. He made it from Pittsburgh's Rule 5 Wild Thing, a player whose original team wouldn't take back, to being slipped quietly onto the 40-man roster.
Will he end up as another in the long line of AAAA pitchers that the Pirate system methodically churns out of its minor-league factories? Maybe. But for now, he's a neat little success story for a squad that doesn't have all that many of them to tell.
There are 39 spots filled now, counting DL'd Phil Dumatrait and Tom Gorzelanny. Looks like the Pirate suits plan to milk all the drama they can out of the moves, which have to be made by November 20th.
Frank Coonelly said in his chat that "Our plan is to put ourselves in a position where we have roster slots available if we see the right player or players available in the (Rule 5) draft." Should make for a couple of interesting weeks on the roster watch.
Rich Kubatko of MASN On-Line has the latest Jack Wilson rumors from the GM's winter workshop.
An ex-Pirate that's angling for a tummy-rub is Jay Bay. His agents are letting it be known loud and clear that he's all for signing long-term with the BoSox, though Boston hasn't sat down with them yet.
Dave Cameron of Fan Graphs says that one guy definitely missing out on a pat on the head is Damaso Marte. He may be too solid a pitcher for his own good.
How's Jose Bautista's star been shining in Toronto? Patrick at NPB Tracker says that he's on the Japanese League Hanshin Tigers' radar now.
In a surprise, Nate McLouth won one of the Rawling Golden Gloves, joining Carlos Beltran and Shane Victorino in the OF. It's a nice honor, being voted on by the managers and players.
Now if you look at run replacement, zone ranges, VORP's and all that other Billy Beane mumbo-jumbo, McLouth is near the bottom of the NL pack as far as snagging a baseball.
And while he did a nice job patrolling PNC (yah, Will, even I admit it), Nate won't be mistaken for Andy Van Slyke, Billy Virdon, or heck, maybe even Kenny Lofton, among Bucs that could fetch a ball like a dog chasing a frisbee.
Your eyes will tell you that McLouth has trouble with balls hit at him, and that he leaves his feet a little more often than a sensible CF should.
But ya know what? The kid came to camp and he had to earn the job. His motor ran at 100% all year, and for every ball that ricocheted past him, he ran down three. Nate was great enough to play the All-Star game, and his throw kept it interesting.
While he only made one error all year, we understand the honor went to him just as much for his bat as his mitt. We also understand that the reason the stat freaks don't give him any love is because of the terrible Pirate pitching. Willie Mays couldn't glove the shots that were roped like clockwork into center.
So we say great job, Nate, and we can't wait until you're in left field, where you'll be a gold glover without any caveats.
Happy Bucco camper #2 is Evan Meek. He made it from Pittsburgh's Rule 5 Wild Thing, a player whose original team wouldn't take back, to being slipped quietly onto the 40-man roster.
Will he end up as another in the long line of AAAA pitchers that the Pirate system methodically churns out of its minor-league factories? Maybe. But for now, he's a neat little success story for a squad that doesn't have all that many of them to tell.
There are 39 spots filled now, counting DL'd Phil Dumatrait and Tom Gorzelanny. Looks like the Pirate suits plan to milk all the drama they can out of the moves, which have to be made by November 20th.
Frank Coonelly said in his chat that "Our plan is to put ourselves in a position where we have roster slots available if we see the right player or players available in the (Rule 5) draft." Should make for a couple of interesting weeks on the roster watch.
Rich Kubatko of MASN On-Line has the latest Jack Wilson rumors from the GM's winter workshop.
An ex-Pirate that's angling for a tummy-rub is Jay Bay. His agents are letting it be known loud and clear that he's all for signing long-term with the BoSox, though Boston hasn't sat down with them yet.
Dave Cameron of Fan Graphs says that one guy definitely missing out on a pat on the head is Damaso Marte. He may be too solid a pitcher for his own good.
How's Jose Bautista's star been shining in Toronto? Patrick at NPB Tracker says that he's on the Japanese League Hanshin Tigers' radar now.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Pellas on the Pirates: Nate McLouth
What Do We Have in Nate McLouth?
'Twould seem an odd question to be asking when Nate the Great has been one of, if not THE, most valuable Pirates over the first half of the 2008 season. Nate's performance is sweet vindication for those of us who have tirelessly beaten the drum for him to be a fulltime regular since he first saw action late in 2005. And yet, as his batting average (though not so much his OPS) has slowly ticked downward over the past few weeks---he's now hitting a still-robust .290---I couldn't help but take a second look at Mr. McLouth and what he's likely to give us going forward.
A significant part of my personal enthusiasm for Number 13 is the fact that he has always been what Rick Pitino calls "a fills-up-the-stats-sheet guy". Versatility is particularly important in the National League, where unlike the A.L. they don't play beer league softball. Over the first two-plus years of his career---when he wasn't being wasted on the bench by Genius Jim Tracy---McLouth looked to me like the baseball version of Pitino's "fills-up-the-stats-sheet guy". I figured, he might never hit for a superlative average, he might never crack 30 home runs, he might not be overwhelming in any one statistical category, but his overall contribution, both offensively and defensively, would make him one of the better all around players in all of baseball.
I still believe that to be true.
So, why am I writing this?
For two reasons. One, if Nate's .290 or lower average is more in keeping with his true talent than his well over .300 figure from April and May, it means that we're back to what even his supporters figured he was. That is, a high .200s hitter who will get a lot of extra bases though not necessarily by hitting a lot of home runs, and who will make a significant portion of his contribution to the team with his glove and with his legs. So far so good, but why does he only have 8 steals all season long despite being an expert base stealer who has been caught a total of 5 times, with 40 SBs, in his CAREER? Surely he ought to be running wild on the basepaths or at least, a lot more often than he has to this point in time.
Which leads me to the second reason I'm asking, "What Do We Have in Nate McLouth". That is, if he isn't going to be the elite base stealer I still believe he's capable of---whether that's because of John Russell's philosophy or because Nate's still bugged by that spring training hamstring strain or what---that means we have to take a hard look at how much "standard" production he'll give us in the future. Again, you may ask, Will, are you crazy? What's wrong with 15 HR and 50 RBI before the All-Star break? Again, nothing. But while those are great numbers for a center fielder, they are merely good numbers for a corner outfielder. And a corner spot is where Nate will be no later than next season, because wunderkind Andrew McCutchen is about to take center stage.
And THAT, boys and girls, is why I'm a wee bit concerned. Mind you, I still believe that Nate is more than capable of being a corner outfielder if he is allowed to run the way he can. With 30-plus steals at a better than 80% success rate and an accompanying 100 runs scored, he is Eric Byrnes and maybe better than that. Without the SBs, he is Luis Gonzalez before Gonzalez started putting up crazy numbers with Arizona.
Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on the running game, and maybe Nate will be a consistent 25 HR, 90-100 RBI guy, in which case he's more than capable of corner OF production and the whole point is moot. But I think he's more likely a .280 15-20 HR with 70-80 RBI kind of hitter on a year in, year out basis, in which case his bat, while still good, is a little light for a corner outfielder. That's why I want to see him running with abandon. We need his whole game, not just the part of it that's been better than expected in 2008.
It's our pleasure to bring Will Pellas' take on the Pirates to the GW periodically.
'Twould seem an odd question to be asking when Nate the Great has been one of, if not THE, most valuable Pirates over the first half of the 2008 season. Nate's performance is sweet vindication for those of us who have tirelessly beaten the drum for him to be a fulltime regular since he first saw action late in 2005. And yet, as his batting average (though not so much his OPS) has slowly ticked downward over the past few weeks---he's now hitting a still-robust .290---I couldn't help but take a second look at Mr. McLouth and what he's likely to give us going forward.
A significant part of my personal enthusiasm for Number 13 is the fact that he has always been what Rick Pitino calls "a fills-up-the-stats-sheet guy". Versatility is particularly important in the National League, where unlike the A.L. they don't play beer league softball. Over the first two-plus years of his career---when he wasn't being wasted on the bench by Genius Jim Tracy---McLouth looked to me like the baseball version of Pitino's "fills-up-the-stats-sheet guy". I figured, he might never hit for a superlative average, he might never crack 30 home runs, he might not be overwhelming in any one statistical category, but his overall contribution, both offensively and defensively, would make him one of the better all around players in all of baseball.
I still believe that to be true.
So, why am I writing this?
For two reasons. One, if Nate's .290 or lower average is more in keeping with his true talent than his well over .300 figure from April and May, it means that we're back to what even his supporters figured he was. That is, a high .200s hitter who will get a lot of extra bases though not necessarily by hitting a lot of home runs, and who will make a significant portion of his contribution to the team with his glove and with his legs. So far so good, but why does he only have 8 steals all season long despite being an expert base stealer who has been caught a total of 5 times, with 40 SBs, in his CAREER? Surely he ought to be running wild on the basepaths or at least, a lot more often than he has to this point in time.
Which leads me to the second reason I'm asking, "What Do We Have in Nate McLouth". That is, if he isn't going to be the elite base stealer I still believe he's capable of---whether that's because of John Russell's philosophy or because Nate's still bugged by that spring training hamstring strain or what---that means we have to take a hard look at how much "standard" production he'll give us in the future. Again, you may ask, Will, are you crazy? What's wrong with 15 HR and 50 RBI before the All-Star break? Again, nothing. But while those are great numbers for a center fielder, they are merely good numbers for a corner outfielder. And a corner spot is where Nate will be no later than next season, because wunderkind Andrew McCutchen is about to take center stage.
And THAT, boys and girls, is why I'm a wee bit concerned. Mind you, I still believe that Nate is more than capable of being a corner outfielder if he is allowed to run the way he can. With 30-plus steals at a better than 80% success rate and an accompanying 100 runs scored, he is Eric Byrnes and maybe better than that. Without the SBs, he is Luis Gonzalez before Gonzalez started putting up crazy numbers with Arizona.
Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on the running game, and maybe Nate will be a consistent 25 HR, 90-100 RBI guy, in which case he's more than capable of corner OF production and the whole point is moot. But I think he's more likely a .280 15-20 HR with 70-80 RBI kind of hitter on a year in, year out basis, in which case his bat, while still good, is a little light for a corner outfielder. That's why I want to see him running with abandon. We need his whole game, not just the part of it that's been better than expected in 2008.
It's our pleasure to bring Will Pellas' take on the Pirates to the GW periodically.
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