Thursday, January 29, 2009

The Roster Takes Shape

* Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette reported today that Eric Hinske signed a contract worth $1.5M guaranteed for 2009, with maybe another $1M in potential bonus bucks available.

Seems like a bit of an overpay, but hey, as Ralph Kiner said "Home run hitters drive Cadillacs."

The 31-year old LH hit .247 with 20 HR for Tampa Bay last year, and the deal he just inked cinched a spot on the Pirate pine for him. With Ramon Vazquez and a catcher also dugout fixtures, that leaves two spots open in the spring.

It should be an interesting few weeks. And don't forget that Andrew McCutchen is looming as an early summer call-up to the show, so an April job doesn't ensure a steady gig at PNC.

Someone will be bumped from the now-filled 40-man roster, too. We'd expect a borderline reliever like Dave Davidson or Romulo Sanchez to get the ax, though there are a couple of equally worthy candidates taking up space.

That also puts a final nail in Dirt Dog Doug's coffin. Let's face it - the fans (and GW, for that matter) loved him because he was an entertainer and showed some fire, not because of his skills.

He's a good fielding first-baseman with no thunder in his stick, although he was willing to play anywhere that John Russell stuck him. Mientiekiewicz ran the bases with more spirit than sense. Just the fact that he's still looking for a job says it all.

As for leadership, well, he was a vocal, stand-up player. But where the team's at now calls for one of the young guys, like Ryan Doumit or Paul Maholm, to take command of the clubhouse, not a 34-year old bench guy on a year-to-year contract.

There were also some undercurrents that suggested his act didn't really sell that well to everyone in the Pirate clubhouse and front office. GW can't verify that, but it would fit into Dirt Dog's take-no-prisoners MO. All in all, the truth is the Bucs thought they could find a better ballplayer, and Hinske is younger, more versatile, and has more thump in his twig. It's Darwin's Theory as applied to baseball.

* DK also reports that Paul Maholm has agreed to a four-year deal, with the first three guaranteed, seeing him through his arbitration years and giving the suits their much coveted cost certainy.

No figures were released yet - they'll probably come out tomorrow - but using Ian Snell's deal as a barometer, he'll probably get $14-15M over his arb years and $24M or so if the Bucs pick up the club option for his first walk season, as a guess. But Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington are always full of surprises, so we'll see soon enough.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Happy Birthday, Chris Peters

Hey, Chris Peters turns 37 today. You might remember the lefty from the Pirate teams of the late 90's; he was a member of that 1997 gang that was called the Freak Show, the closest thing Pittsburgh has seen to a contender since the Jimmy Leyland days.

Peters was born in Fort Thomas, Kentucky, and quickly moved into the area, parlaying his pitching skills at Peters Township High into a scholarship to Indiana University. He did OK by the Hoosiers, with a career record of 11-9 and a 4.75 ERA in 119-1/3 innings pitched. In his senior season, he had a 6-3 record with a 3.77 ERA, and the hometown team picked Peters up in the 37th round of the 1993 draft.

The first couple of years on the farm were a struggle for him, working out of the bullpen, but in 1995, when he was let loose to start again, he put up some pretty nice numbers.

Peters was 13-5 that year with a 2.32 ERA between high A Lynchburg and AA Carolina, and then was solid again in 1996, going 8-4 between Carolina and AAA Calgary with a 2.25 ERA. That work got him his ticket to the show.

The Bucs put in him the rotation, and the rook got rocked. The next year, they worked him out of the pen, and he looked a little more respectable. In 1998, Peters looked like he had finally figured it out.

He made 39 appearances, 21 as a starter, and had an 8-10 record with a 3.47 ERA. His control was good, he missed a few bats, and kept the ball in the yard - and all three of those areas had been sore spots for him in the past.

But as quickly as it fell together, it fell apart. His ERA soared to 6.59 in 1999, and he was sent back to AAA. That's where he started 2000, but he was called back up and was effective in a few outings with the Pirates. But it was too little, too late, and they released him.

The Expos claimed him for 2001, but after a couple of brutal outings, they let him go at the end of May. In the next several months, the Reds, Yankees, and Blue Jays would took a shot on him, but he never made it back to the bigs.

Peters had his last pro hurrah with the Tigers organization in 2002, pitching for the AA Erie Seawolves. He was cut free after that, and spent his last campaign with the independent Atlantic League's Pennsylvania Road Warriors, Newark Bears, and Camden Riversharks in 2003. He decided that he had enough of the bus rides and got on with his real life after his extended indy road trip.

Peters now lives in Mount Washington and has three children, 10, 9 and an infant, and manages Downtown parking lots for his daily bread. But he's back in baseball, and in a familiar situation.

He signed on as Point Park University's pitching coach during the off-season. PPU, like the Pirates, has a rich tradition of baseball success - John Stuper of the Cards and Reds, and now Yale's manager, led the Pioneers to the 1978 NAIA World Series - but have hit on hard times this decade, much like Peter's MLB club.

Along with manager Al Liberi of Mount Lebanon, a renowned hitting coach, he's hoping to infuse the Downtown nine with the knowledge and confidence to dominate regionally again. And he's depending on his Bucco days to provide that influence.

"Just because I played in the big leagues, immediately I gain a little respect from the kids," he said to Steve Hecht of the Post Gazette in a recent interview.

You should recognize his pitching philosophy: "Keep it as simple as you can, work fast, change speeds and throw strikes," is how he explained his mound credo.

And hey - if it was good enough for Spin Williams, it's good enough for Chris Peters. Who knows? His kids might actually listen.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Bits And Pieces

* The Bucs reupped Ty Taubenheim and Jason Davis, a pair of RHP that are ticketed to add some pitching depth to Indy.

Taubenhiem, 26, was 4-9 with a 5.60 ERA on the farm and was a hot shot in the Astro organization before landing with Pittsburgh. He was an emergency call-up last year and started once, going six innings and dodging the raindrops to yield two runs.

Davis, 28, has seven years in the show with a 22-26 record and 4.82 ERA. He was 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA for the Pirates last year, and rejoined the flock after a brief thought of hooking up with a Japanese team. Davis is a veteran insurance policy if the wheels fall off the pitching wagon again at PNC.

They also signed Virgil Vasquez, 26, a soft-throwing righty who had a long year for Detroit's AAA club in 2008, going 12-12 with a 4.81 ERA at Toledo, but was considered a decent prospect in 2006-07. He was added to the 40-man, and looks like another reclamation project.

* The arb hearing date for Paul Maholm is February 10th and for Nate McLouth, February 17th. Maholm is slowly working his way towards a long-term deal; McLouth will have to prove himself again in 2009 to get on the same page with the suits.

* Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette reports that the Pirates have some interest in 41 year old Luis "Gonzo" Gonzalez. Geez, cut us a break - if they're gonna bring back a lefty, bring back Dirt Dog. He's more versatile and every bit as much a clubhouse force.

He added they're looking at other OFs, but boy, there ain't much left to hassle over if Manny, Bobby Abreu, and Adam Dunn are off the Christmas list. Eric Hinske and Garrett Anderson, both LH, with RH golden oldies Andruw Jones and Moises Alou are still looking for paychecks. Maybe there's a guy that's been DFA'ed that they like, but it looks to us like pretty slim pickings.

As far as new arms go, Braden Looper and Pedro Martinez are still being eyed by the Bucs; Kris Benson isn't, according to DK. Maybe they have some interest in DFA'ed guys Chase Wright, late of the Yankees, and Atlanta-ex Chuck James.

* The Pirates got new unis, kinda. The old home and aways have sleeves now; the old Sunday pinstripe is still a vest. They ditched the red softball top and replaced it with a black jersey with a big ol' gold "P" over the players' hearts.

* Eron of Sitting On The North Side Notch is starting a campaign for a Romulo Sanchez bobblehead. If you want to help put Romulo over the top, visit his blog here and vote.

Monday, January 26, 2009

The Mayor Hangs 'Em Up...

Sean Casey, the Mayor of the Majors, called it quits after 12 pretty good years in the show. The affable Casey said he'd only entertain offers that would give him a shot at starting; otherwise the cost to his clan would be too great. None came, so it's off to the MLB Network. His kids gain a semi-normal dad; baseball loses an elite ambassador.

The ol' first sacker joins an on-air crew of baseball analysts that includes old teammate Barry Larkin. He'll be a regular on the one-hour "Hot Stove" show that will fold into the eight-hour "MLB Tonight" once the season starts.

Casey was born on July 2, 1974 in Willingboro Township, New Jersey, and soon relocated to Upper St. Clair with his parents, Jim and Joan. His dad was a salesman, and Sean no doubt learned his gift of gab from him.

He was kind of a butterball as a kid, but a lovable one. One story has him running for class president in junior high, and he brought a bag of tootsie rolls to school to hand out as campaign fodder. Sean ate them all before he got to class.

Hey, just a minor drawback; every political race has its bumps. When the candidates were gathered together in the auditorium, he tore off his shirt. His tee underneath said "Casey-Mania." He won.

He and his pop were big Buc fans, catching games at TRS back in the Barry Bonds - Bobby Bo era. And as unspectacular as his bod was, even then, that's how spectacular he was as a high school batter.

Casey was taught how to hit by local coaching guru Frank Porco, who has a batting camp in the area. He showed Casey how to turn on offspeed pitches and how to go with the pitch when he saw the ball on the outside half of the dish, lessons he never forgot.

He raked the ball for the Panthers, but still had that body image problem. Casey sprouted to 6'-4" in HS, but still had the look of an overfed Ichabod Crane. The college scouts didn't give him a second look, so he went out and sold himself.

Richmond bit on his spiel, and they're glad they did. He was invited to school as a walk-on, hit the weights, and drilled liners to the tune of a .386 average as a frosh and .371 as a second-year guy. Casey played some in the prestigious Cape Cod wooden bat league as a sophomore, and hit .338 while leading the circuit in RBI.

As a junior for the Spiders, he led all Division-I hitters with a .461 average and put together a 31-game batting streak. He added 14 homers, 26 doubles and 70 RBIs in 55 games. Casey once homered in four straight at bats against Old Dominion. He was chosen as a second-team All-American behind Todd Helton of Tennessee.

Casey was drafted in 1995 in the 2nd round by the Cleveland Indians and was traded to the Cincinnati Reds for Dave Burba before the 1998 season after having fallen behind Jim Thome on the Indian roster.

He wasn't blocked at Cincy, which was in the throes of a Marge Schott youth movement. Casey was penciled in to start, but after two games, he got clocked in the cheek by a warm-up ball gone astray. He missed a month, and then spent another month in the minors, regaining his eye.

But Casey finished with a .272 average and seven homers in 302 at-bats, and showed so much promise that his competition, Paul Konerko, was traded away. He would spend eight years with the Reds, hitting over .300 and driving in over 80 runs for five of them. Casey made the NL All-Star Team three times in that span.

But the Reds couldn't win, and Casey was caught on the wrong side of the next rebuilding effort. He was shipped to his hometown Buccos in 2006 for Dave Williams, putting together a line of .296/3/21 in 236 at bats and winning the hearts of the Pittsburgh faithful, even though he missed huge hunks of time with a fractured vertebra from an early season collision at first, followed later by a pulled rib muscle.

Even a hometown hero can't make the club in the tub, even though there was talk of extending his contract before the second injury. He was dealt to Detroit at the deadline for the immanently forgettable Brian Rogers. And what a pick-up Casey proved to be.

He hit five homers and knocked in 30 runs down the stretch as Detroit held off the Twins for the wild card spot. But he really shined in the post season.

The Motown nine upset the Evil Empire as Casey hit .353 against the Yankees. He missed most of the ALCS sweep of the Oakland A’s, slightly tearing his left calf in Game 1. But he made it back for the Series, even if as a DH.

Casey led all hitters in the series with nine hits, five RBIs and a .529 average, but his teammates folded against the St. Louis Cards, losing in six games. His .432/2/9 in 10 games was one of the top shelf performances in the Tigers' storied postseason history.

The Tigers signed him up for one more year, and he hit .296 for them. Then Casey mosied off to the Red Sox, where he was invaluable off the bench and when injuries hit them. His .322 average helped carry them into the playoffs. That was his last hurrah.

The 34-year old Casey's lifetime stats in 12 MLB seasons were .302 BA/130 HR/735 RBI. And his fielding range was way above the league average, by a guy that might need a head start to beat Sid Bream in a footrace. In his dozen years, he never played another position on the field (except DH).

He banged out the first hit in both the history of PNC Park and Miller Park. Casey got both knocks with the same bat, and then shipped it off to Cooperstown for display the Hall of Fame.

Why the Mayor? Because if elections are indeed just popularity contests, Sean Casey wins hands down as the MLB's nicest guy. In a 2007 SI poll 2007, Casey was voted in "the friendliest player in baseball" by his fellow players. He garnered 46% of the vote with runner-up Jim Thome getting 7%.

His chatfests at first with opposing runners were legendary. Henry Rodriguez of the Cubs got so involved in one conversation that he was picked off in mid sentence. On another occasion, Sean ignored Reds manager Jack McKeon’s calls to play back, holding the Card's Mark McGwire close to first base just so he had someone to talk to.

Every community he played in loved him, too, both for his civic contributions and his friendly persona. Anyone could approach Casey and leave feeling like his best bud. In fact, he was first called the "Mayor" by his Cape Cod manager Mike Kirby while he was still in college, so his sunny disposition goes way back to his roots.

Casey is active in many charitable functions, such as Big Brothers and Make-A-Wish Foundation, as well as the "Casey's Crew" program, where he provided free high-priced tickets to disadvantaged youth. Casey is a co-founder of "Labels Are For Jars", an anti-hunger organization. He gave $10,000 to help build a field for disabled kids in Auburn, outside Detroit - and that was last year, after he left the team.

He's a religious guy, too, heavily involved with the Catholic Athletes for Christ and setting up prayer services for his teams.

Casey and his wife Mandi have three children, ages 7, 5 and 3. They live in Pittsburgh again, after moving back to the Steel City from Florida. Hey, who knows - maybe one day he will end up mayor. The City could sure do worse.

(For a full-tilt life story, visit Jock Bio and settle in for a good read of Sean Casey's career.)

Sunday, January 25, 2009

18 Days To Go...

Hey, it's almost time for the pitchers and catchers to report. So what's the team look like?

* Free Agents - fuhgetaboutit. They said at the end of last season that they were going to stick with the 2008 core, and boy, did they. Ramon Vasquez was inked as a utility infielder, Donnie Veal as a Rule 5 pick-up, and a zillion guys signed deals that earned them an invite to camp.

The Buc bench wandered off to other pastures, except for Dirt Dog Doug, who is in free agent limbo. So there will be competition there, and eight or nine pitchers will duke it out for rotation spots.

Andy Phillips, Jeff Salazar, Craig Monroe, and Garrett Jones are newcomers with a sub shot, and Jason Jamarillo and Robinzon Diaz will vie for Ronny Paulino's spot. The rest of the roster competition will be internal.

Pitching will be almost entirely selected from the current collection of Buc and Indy arms, with only Veal and Brian Slocum having a chance at the 25-man.

Are they done? "The free-agent market is not over," president Frank Coonelly said at the Fan Fest yesterday. "We're still being very active. I would be very surprised if we don't...sign players that you would fall in love with this year, between now and the beginning of Spring Training." So there!

* Injuries - Phil Dumatrait looks more and more iffy, Jeff Karstens was shut down during mini-camp, and Freddy Sanchez still has vision problems and hasn't cut loose with any throws at 100% during the off-season, although he says his achy-breaky shoulder feels fine.

On the plus side, Brandon Moss, Jack Wilson, Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are ready and rarin' to go, physically at least. Andy LaRoche, to his credit, didn't cry about the thumb injury that he played through last season, and is said to be good to go now.

* Contracts - Ryan Doumit, Ian Snell, and Ramon Vasquez are locked up, Freddy Sanchez and Jack Splat have club options for 2010, Adam LaRoche and John Grabow are in their walk years, and Zach Duke, Matt Capps, and Tyler Yates are signed for the season and have arbitration ahead of them. Nate McLouth and Paul Maholm have exchanged figures with the team as they head towards arbitration.

They're both are open to long term deals. Maholm is said to be making progress on his pact; not so for McLouth. Everyone else is safely under team control for the time being.

* "The Plan" - The suits are amassing young talent, and though they claim to be competitive now, it looks a lot like they're building towards a 2011-12 breakthrough season. They've diverted funds into the draft and Dominican, and that will pay off in spades if they stick to the course instead of overpaying for graybeards.

And though they didn't bring in any new blood, they did keep two players, Wilson and Sanchez, instead of giving them away for a bag of balls and a six-pack. That's worth a few props for keeping the team from becoming a Triple-A club in 2009.

Other changes aren't so obvious. They brought Joe Kerrigan and Perry Hill on staff, guys they targeted but couldn't sweet talk into the fold last year. They continue to bring in player evaluation types, from both the old school and sabermetric eras.

* The Outlook - They could win 70 or so games if the pitching returns more to the norm. Anything much better, and Bob Nutting should give the entire organization a free week at Seven Springs for a job unexpectedly well done.

But hey, it's January. Everyone's tied for first and undefeated.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Adam LaRoche - Should He Stay Or Should He Go?

Adam LaRoche is one of the Buc's more enigmatic figures. Laid back to the point that fans think he sometimes just doesn't care, but red-blooded enough to be the face man for a hunting organization.

In a team starved for production, he cranks out 25 homers and 85-90 RBI like clockwork, but spends much of the time batting sixth.

He's 29, so LaRoche is certainly young enough to be a key piece of the Pirates moving into the future. But many feel his dismal performance during the opening weeks of the season is one of the major reasons the Bucs are traditionally behind the eight ball by Memorial Day.

What to do with Adam LaRoche?

The Pirates are apparently unsure themselves, having broken off talks that began last year to ink him to a long-term deal and instead signing him to one year pacts worth $5M and $7.05M. This is it for arbitration, so 2009 is the last year he's under team control.

GW doesn't have a clue what figures LaRoche and the Pirates exchanged. But he does know this - there aren't very many first basemen running around in baseball today that can replace him, and certainly none in the Pittsburgh system (see the post below).

After a little checking, the closest comparable player we could find to LaRoche was the Yankee's Nick Swisher. He's 28, LH, and his 2006-08 batting stats are 1592 at-bats, .246/81/242.

Over the same period, LaRoche, 29, has been up 1547 times, and compiled a line of .275/78/263. Swisher makes $5.3M this year, part of a deal he signed in 2006 while with the Oakland A's.; LaRoche $7.05M. Both are considered above average glovemen.

From 2010-2012, Swisher will make $6.75M, $9M, and $10.25M (club option) for $26M. The Yankees have him on the market, and it's said to be pretty hot for his services, much hotter than the response to Xavier Nady, in fact.

LaRoche has the advantage of 2010 being his walk year when he can finally dive into the free agent market and test the waters. There are a couple of scenarios possible.

One is that the dearth of 1B leads him to the promised land of a sweet contract. LaRoche would be the top first sacker out; Nick Johnson is the next closest thing to a big name coming out to compete with him. Yah, it's that thin next year, although there could be a couple of options not picked up or non-tendered arb guys available, too.

Second would be that the economy continues to floor, and Obama and Congress for some reason decide not to bail out baseball. LaRoche could be treading water, looking for a deal that never materializes, falling into the category of a solid but not difference-making player.

The Pirates, too, are taking a roll of the dice. There is no one to replace him, and the market is bone dry in 2010. They can hope that the second scenario is the one that happens and he comes back home, but if LaRoche defies history and comes out hitting the ball in April, there will be virtually no chance to get him back in the fold.

And his status as a free agent after the season really puts a cap on what value the team can get in return for him if they decide to move him at the deadline.

The Pirates have said many times that they don't negotiate during the season. If that's the case, they don't have the luxury of seeing if LaRoche is past his April no-show. They have a span of a few weeks to hammer out a deal or in all likelihood lose him.

We say offer him three years at $30M - $8.5M in 2010, $10M in 2011, and $11.5M in 2012, with incentives for 30 HR and 100 RBI, plus the usual All-Star, Golden Glove, etc. honors. Hey, we could also live with a bit of an overpay if that's what it takes, considering both the upcoming market and the Pirates' depth.

Three years gives the Bucs a chance to groom someone, and lets LaRoche hit the market again at age 33, not very long in the tooth for a first sacker.

That's fair to us, although we have no idea what he's asked for; maybe Adam would think we're low-balling him, or the suits think we're throwing money away. C'est la vie.

But that's his value as we see it, and the team needs another contract out of him to compete in the coming seasons. We hope they do sign him, April follies or not.

Then we'll be convinced that they do intend to be a MLB contender by 2011 or 2012. He's a piece they can't replace in the near future.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Farm Fresh - First Base

Hey, this is another easy one - behind Adam LaRoche at first base is a whole lot of maybe, and that ain't good.

LaRoche just signed on the dotted line for $7.05M, a fair salary for his production. The good news is that he's been pretty productive - he's had 20+ homers and 85-90 RBI for the past three years, with a batting average ranging from .270-.285.

And being a lefty, LaRoche is built for the friendly confines of PNC Park, although when he's on, his power is more to the gaps. His glove is more than decent, and at 29, he's young enough to fit into the Bucs plans going down the road.

The bad news is that his bat doesn't warm up until the dog days. In the past three seasons, he's hit .251, .239, and .251 during the first half of the season (we won't even talk about April), and .304, .312, and .323 in the second half. And by that time, the Bucs are eating dust in the Central Division.

The Pirates wanted to sign him to a long-term deal last year, but the gap was so vast that they didn't even broach the subject this year. 2009 is his walk season, and you can be assured he'll stick his toes in the free agent pool in 2010.

So who is lining up behind him? Well, his back-up from 2008, Doug Mientkiewicz, is still unsigned and isn't really a long term answer any way. Looks like Steve Pearce, 1B turned OF, may be flipped again.

The 25-year old RH has hit .266 in 177 big league at-bats, but his 4 long balls aren't what the suits are looking for from a corner infielder. In 2006 and 2007, he smacked 57 homers during stops at every level from Hickory to Indianapolis, but only added a dozen for the Tribe in 2008. Will the real Steve Pearce please stand up?

Does he deserve a shot? The Bucco tribe is divided on that question, but it may be a moot point. If LaRoche heads to greener pastures at the deadline or off season, there may be no choice.

Andy Phillips will be in camp, and the 31-year old has been around the big league block. A Yankee prospect that lost out to Jason Giambi, he's played for three teams and batted 557 times with 14 HR and a .250 average. He's mostly been a third baseman in his MLB appearances, but has played first and second in AAA. But he's a utility guy all the way, not a replacement by any standard.

Huntington also brought in long-time Twin minor league muscle man Garrett Ford, but more than likely as Indy's first-sacker, not Pittsburgh's. The 29-year old LH has hit 20+ homers at AAA for three of the past four seasons, but only gotten 77 at-bats in the show, homering twice and hitting .266 - and that was two years ago.

The much jerked-around Neil Walker may add a first baseman's mitt to his growing collection of leather. He made the transition from catcher to the hot corner well enough to be named the best fielding 3B in the International League, so he shouldn't have much problem with the defensive part of moving across the diamond.

Like another switch-hitting catcher that was athletic enough to play the corners, Ryan Doumit, Walker may get a little love. But unlike Doumit, Walker's bat has yet to explode. He had his best power year in 2008, hitting 16 HR for Indy, but batting just .244.

Some folk think he was rushed to AAA last year and should have put in a full season at Altoona. True or not, this much is sure - Pedro Alvarez is on a fast track behind him, and Andy LaRoche looks immovable for the time being ahead of him. So it would make sense to give Walker another season at Indy and some quality time at 1B.

Jamie Romak, who was part of the LaRoche deal, has big time power but not much else. The 23-year old converted OF has 61 HR in his three minor league seasons, with 340 K in 1322 AB (26%), and in a couple of months at Altoona hit just .208 (his minor league lifetime is .255). And his glove and speed won't take him far.

But he does have the one thing a first baseman needs - a big stick. Romak's not ready for prime time, and how he adjusts to a whole season in AA may make or break his career. He's young enough, but has to quit missing so many pitches.

25-year old Miles Durham showed some spark last season, hitting a combined .293/18/81 between Hickory and Lynchburg, and following up with a brief but effective fall stint in Hawaii. Still, he's awfully long in the tooth for level he's playing at, so...

Altoona 1B Jason Delaney rounds out the list. The 26-year old hit .292, but has never reached double-figures in HR in four years of college and four years in the minors. And that's just not first base performance.

A couple of guys with a darkhorse pedigree are Calvin Anderson, 21, and Justin Byler, 23. Both are young, have some power, and are light years away from the show.

Maybe it's best if Pedro does eat his way to first base...

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Baseball America: The Pirates Future...Is In The Future

Baseball America came out yesterday with the Pirate's Top Ten Prospects and a couple of other juicy barroom tidbits, like the best tools and the 2012 lineup, conjured up by long-time Bucco scribe John Perrotto, formerly of the BC Times and now with the Nutting family's West Virginia paper.

You know you're in trouble when the article starts out with "The Pirates are likely to set a record for infamy in 2009 as their never-ending rebuilding process continues..." That's kind of a downer, hey?

So with no further ado, the hopes for the future, BA's Top Ten:

01. Pedro Alvarez, 3b
02. Andrew McCutchen, of
03. Jose Tabata, of
04. Brad Lincoln, rhp
05. Bryan Morris, rhp
06. Neil Walker, 3b
07. Jeff Sues, rhp
08. Shelby Ford, 2b
09. Daniel McCutchen, rhp
10. Robbie Grossman, of

No real shockers there, except that GW still has a distaste for ranking a kid without an at-bat as the alpha dog. We hope he does something soon to earn the recognition.

The toolsy guys? Perrotto picks Alvarez as the guy with the potential for the best average and power as a hitter, McCutchen as the best athlete and oufield glove, and in a bit of a surprise, Ron Uviedo having the best changeup. Uviedo is a 22-year old Venezuelan RHP and closer with just two years in the minors, although he is a vet of the VSL and was protected on the Pirates' latest 40-man roster.

Most interesting was the projected 2012 lineup:

Catcher: Ryan Doumit
First Base: Adam LaRoche
Second Base: Shelby Ford
Third Base: Pedro Alvarez
Shortstop: Jarek Cunningham
Left Field: Nate McLouth
Center Field: Andrew McCutchen
Right Field: Jose Tabata
No. 1 Starter: Brad Lincoln
No. 2 Starter: Ian Snell
No. 3 Starter: Bryan Morris
No. 4 Starter: Paul Maholm
No. 5 Starter: Tom Gorzelanny
Closer: Matt Capps

GW doesn't share Perrotto's optimism that LaRoche, McLouth, and Capps will still be sporting Pirate double-knits in 2012. We wouldn't be surprised to see Alvarez at first, little LaRoche manning the hot corner, Brandon Moss in LF and Jeff Sues closing.

Jim Negrych will be on the bench, if he hasn't found a position of his own by then. We wouldn't bet against Dan McCutchen being in the pitching mix, either. Neil Walker could end up the new Dirt Dog Doug, filling in at the corner infield and outfield spots.

It's certainly possible that high school standout Cunningham could beat out Jordy Mercer and Chase d'Arnaud at short, but that trio and possibly Brian Friday should have a real battle royale to claim the spot. That sure beats having someone anointed to the position. One of the losers could be shifted to the right side to keep Ford honest.

And also on the horizon will be Robbie Miller and Wesley Freeman, who should be in AAA, and Uviedo, Justin Wilson, and Quinton Miller, all with a chance to land in Indy by 2012.

OK, we've stolen enough from Perrotto for one day. Go click on his article from the link in the lede; it's a good read.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Nate McLouth - Lowballed?

We know that Nate McLouth and the Bucs have miles to go before they agree on a contract. They just swapped arbitration figures, and McLouth asked for $3.8M; the team countered with $2.75M. Either way, it's a nice jump from the $425K he got in 2008, his first year as a starter and a breakout season by every matrix.

He proved durable, playing in 152 games and getting a team-leading 597 at bats. Mclouth's line was .276/26/94 with 113 runs scored and 23 stolen bases. He ran up a .356 OBP, .497 slugging %, and an OPS of .853. Oh, and was a gold glove CF. Pretty good stuff, no matter how you look at. And he wants the Benjamins those stats say that he deserves.

Whoa, say the suits. Can he repeat that performance on the field? Do those numbers, as swell as they are for a CF, hold up as well for a corner OF spot, his probable future position? And his power and RBI production do take a beating when he faces a lefty - .261 with a .710 OPS and only 3 of his 26 long balls.

The Pirates are apparently basing his contract on Ryan Doumit's recent deal. Doumit signed for a guaranteed three years, carrying him through arbitration, for $2.05M, $3.55M, and $5.1M, with a one-time option for $7.25M and $8.25M in 2012-13.

His line was .318/15/69 with 71 runs tallied, though he played a lot less - 116 games, and 465 at bats. Doumit plays a position that is harder to fill than McLouth's, and his production splits aren't as skewered, though he rakes lefties noticeably better than righties - but he still hits RHPs at a .314 clip with an .849 OPS, not too shabby.

Personally, GW thinks that the Bucs got a pretty sweet deal with Doumit. Then again, his history is that he's in the tub a lot, and our guess is both sides recognized that when striking the deal, balancing performance and injury backgrounds.

Instead of comparing apples and oranges, let's take a look at a couple of other players in the same boat as McLouth. The Dodgers are playing out the exact scenario with Andre Ethier, who wants $3.75M and is being offered $2.65M by LA.

His line was .305/20/77 with 90 runs scored. Ethier's OBP is .375, his slugging percentage is .510, combined for an OPS of .885, all a tick above McLouth. Ethier's splits are terrible - he mashes against righties, but hits .243 with a .692 OPS against portsiders. And he plays a corner position, RF. Comparable player, comparable demand.

Or would could look across state and see what the Phillies did to tie up RF Jatson Werth, a first-time arb eligible player. His line was .273/24/67 with 73 runs scored. Werth's OBP was .363, slugging % .498, and OPS .861. He struggles against RHP, hitting .255 with a .767 OPS.

That didn't bother the City of Brotherly Love's suits a bit - they signed him for the next two years, giving him a $1M signing bonus, $2M for 2009, and $7M in 2010. That's on the high side in 2010, we think, but hey - agents and players are looking at arbitration as a poor man's free agency in these economic times.

The battle in Pittsburgh is to set Nate McLouth's baseline salary through his arbitration years. The higher it is, the brighter McLouth's future earning power becomes, and the Bucs want to keep it down while they have him under control. Hey, someone else may want to cash in on a good season, too.

In the Pirate's defense, they generally want back-to-back performances before signing an arb-eligible guy on the dotted line. But they let that balloon get pricked when they inked Ryan Doumit, who never got more than 252 at bats before 2008.

Our take? McLouth has a good case. The midpoint between he and the Pirates is $3.275M. If they can get him anywhere near that figure, they should sign him. His number looks closer to the going rate than the suit's offer. After all, you eventually have to pay the guys that come through for you.

Unless, of course, the Yankees come courting...

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Pirate Payroll - 2009

OK, the Pirate payroll is starting to fall in line now - 4 arb players, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, John Grabow, and Tyler Yates, signed on the dotted line; Paul Maholm and Nate McLouth are playing it out a little longer, having exchanged arbitration figures with the team, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette. The payroll so far:

Jack Wilson, SS - $7.25M (club option $8.4M in 2010 with $600K buyout)
Adam LaRoche, 1B - $7.05M (2010 free agency year)
Freddy Sanchez, 2B - $6.1M (club option $8M in 2010 with $600K buyout)
Ian Snell, SP - $3M ($4.25M in 2010, club option in 2011 for $6.75M, club option in 2011 for $9.75M)
Nate McLouth, OF - exchanged salary figures; $2.75M team; $3.8M, player (2010 and 2011 - arbitration years)
Paul Maholm, SP - exchanged salary figures; $2.65 team; $3.8M, player (2010 and 2011 - arbitration years)
Matt Capps, RP - $2.3M (2010 and 2011 - arbitration years)
John Grabow, RP - $2.3M (2010 free agency year)
Zach Duke, SP - $2.2M (2010 and 2011 - arbitration years)
Ryan Doumit, C - $2.05M ($3.55M in 2010, $5.1M in 2011, club option for next two years must be exercised in 2012; $7.25M in 2012, $8.25M in 2013 with $500K buyout)
Ramon Vazquez, IF - $2M ($2M in 2010 - not sure of annual splits, 2-year deal for $4M)
Tyler Yates, RP - $1.3M (2010 - arbitration year)

With the gap between the Pirates and their two arb guys, the payroll for the dozen signed players will fall between $40.95M - $43.15M. Throw in thirteen near or minimum wage workers and a few bucks to pay off Matt Morris and a couple of other ex-Bucs, and you have a base payroll in the range of $49 or $50M as it now stands, without bonuses or incentives.

Last year's opening day payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, was $48.7M.

So much for rolling in the extra cash freed up by dumping Jay Bay and Matty Mo's money, hey?