It was no surprise that Cutch won the NL-MVP last night; only the margin of victory (28-of-30 first place votes) was a stunner. He joins a select Bucco band that consists of Roberto Clemente, Dick Groat, Willie Stargell, Dave Parker and Barry Bonds (twice) to achieve that honor.
There's no question the 27 year old earned it. He hit .317/.404/.508 with a .911 OPS, 21 homers, 97
runs, 84 RBI, 27 stolen sacks, an 8.4 UZR/150 as a defender and a NL-leading 8.2 WAR in 2013. Cutch finished in the NL's top seven for BA, OBP, slugging and OPS. And being on a team that finally made a post season appearance didn't hurt the cause. Last year, he put up a better offensive line (.327/.400/.553, .953 OPS) but received just one first-place vote for MVP while finishing third.
The Bucs took him as the 11th overall pick in 2005, passing on guys like Jay Bruce (whom the brass were also considering), Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley. Though most folks think he was stuck in the minors too long (remember when learning to bunt was still on his check list?), the truth is that the Pirates fast tracked the high schooler. He went through the rookie leagues at 18, Class A at 19, and spent the next two seasons and some change in the upper levels. Cutch never disappointed, and was a Baseball America Top Fifty Prospect from the day he was drafted.
Forty-nine games into his 2009 season, Pittsburgh gave him the center field job, trading the popular All-Star Nate McLouth when his value was at its peak to Atlanta for Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernadez, who was later flipped for Gaby Sanchez.
He's had 5+ WAR for the past three seasons for a total of 20.4 WAR over that span, per Fangraphs (20.8 per Baseball Reference). Consider that 4 WAR during a season puts you in All-Star territory and 6 WAR merits MVP consideration. And that's where Cutch has been lately, with three AS berths, a third place MVP finish in 2012 and the whole enchilada this year.
And the cherry on top is that Cutch is a Buc for a long time. Just before the 2012 season opened, Cutch inked a deal that should max out at seven years, $66M (with bonuses, of which he's fairly certain to cash in), with the Bucs holding a 2018 team option. Will his value still be holding up into his age 31?
Sure should. beside being tied up for his prime production years, most indicators are that Cutch has become a more mature and productive player, beginning in 2012. For contract conspiracists, his pre-deal line was .276/.365/.458, while in the past two years it's been .322/.402/.531. Maybe there is something to be said about a nice warm security blanket.
But there's a lot more to base the future on. His line drive rate has increased from 20% to 24.5% over that span. He puts plenty of balls in play, too - his K rate was just 15% last year, and he's approached the MLB average of 20% only once in his career. It also shows in his walk rate; it's never been under 10.4% and his lifetime average is 11.4%. Cutch has the patience to go deep into counts and come out ahead.
McCutchen is a well reputed lefty masher, but in the past couple of seasons he's solved righties pretty well, too. In his first three campaigns he never reached a .280+ BA and had just one .800+ OPS against same-siders, but in the past two years he's hit .309 BA/.900 OPS and .302 BA/.864 OPS against RHP.
His power has pretty much settled in. In the past three years, Cutch has lost 75 baseballs with a .190 ISO or better and about a 12% FB/HR ratio, so a ballpark figure of 25 homers looks to be sustainable. And his slugging percentage (.489 lifetime) will remain strong as long as his wheels do, giving him those extra power-padding leg doubles. It also helps pad his BABIP. Cutch has had one season when his balls-in-play % was under .311, and it sits at .322 lifetime.
His baserunning does more than send caps flying; Bill James estimates that he's created 13 runs on the bases in the past two years.
That elite speed will help him in the outfield, too. Despite low defensive ratings in 2012, McCutchen bounced back with his best season in the field. His range improved: he went from costing the team five runs in 2012 to saving seven last year (per Bill James), and he has a quicker, more accurate release now on his throws, a necessity due to his quite average arm. And a saving grace is that he's not locked into center into his 30s; with Starling Marte on his flank, the loss of a step just requires a switch of spots.
So speed, patience, defense and passable power are all there. Cutch is also said to be the hardest worker on the team; every season there's an aspect of his game that you can see he's dedicated the off season to improving.
There are a couple of cracks in Cutch's armor. While generally patient at the dish, he has to guard against his tendency to pull the ball the way he did in 2011, when he hit .259. He's a more dangerous hitter going gap-to-gap. McCutchen can't exactly be considered a streak hitter, but he seems to settle into a fairly deep funk during some point in the season; fortunately, in 2013 it was at the start of the year rather than the finish.
Defensively, he has to play with a mental edge. He'll get to balls other guys wave at, but his arm will always require forethought to be effective. He averages nine assists a year, and that's more a testament to opponents running on him than his lasers.He could be a more vocal leader, but his on-and-off field example and the times he does take the dugout floor are more than enough. But enough with the quibbling.
Cutch is set up to have a long run as da man in Pittsburgh. His speed and peripherals support his counting numbers, and they should only go higher as Cutch gets deeper into his career and hopefully surrounded by more talent.
It's hard to post WAR numbers like Cutch's, and we doubt that even he could keep running up 6+ WAR every year. But it's easy to see him as the club's automatic All-Star, and there's no reason to believe that won't last through his contract.
"Somehow we have developed this large contingent of know-it-all baseball fans who bay like wounded coyotes at any mention of wins, losses, RBI or batting average. I never know whether I should blame myself for this or not.." (Bill James)
Friday, November 15, 2013
Thursday, November 14, 2013
11/12-13-14: Ground Chuck, Ultimatum, MVP, Beat 'Em Bucs, Stan Rojak, Paul Wagner, Cy Young and 9-Man Trade...
Ground Chuck, Ultimatum, MVP, Beat 'Em Bucs, Stan Rojak, Paul Wagner, Cy Young and 9-Man Trade...
- November 12, 1983 - Charlie Morton was born in Flemington, New Jersey. The promising righty came to Pittsburgh in 2009 as part of the Nate McLouth trade with Atlanta, and has been in-and-out (mostly out) of the rotation ever since because of various injuries.
- November 13, 1956 - The Pirates announced that they would consider moving out of town if a new stadium wasn’t built to replace Forbes Field, the second oldest yard in baseball after Shibe Park in Philly. Buc VP Tom Johnson said in the Pittsburgh Press that “What we need is a municipal stadium in Pittsburgh we both (Pirates & Steelers) can use. If we don’t get one, there’s a chance the Pirates will have to leave this city.” They got their wish, though it took some time. The political football was kicked around for years until Three Rivers Stadium opened in July of 1970.
- November 13, 1979 - For the first time in MLB history, two players shared the MVP. The NL co-winners were Willie Stargell, who hit .281 with 32 HRs, and the Cards 1B Keith Hernandez, who led the NL in runs scored (116), doubles (48), and batting average (.344). With the win, the Pirates have taken (or shared) all four "MVP" awards for the season (All-Star Game, NLCS, World Series, and NL regular season). This was the first award sweep in MLB history. Stargell took the honors for the NLCS, World Series, and NL regular season, while Dave Parker won the All-Star Game MVP.
- November 13, 2010 - Beat ‘Em, Bucs! The Byham Theater hosted a sneak preview of a 50-year-old B&W movie, copied from TV for owner Bing Crosby, of NBC's telecast of the seventh game of the 1960 World Series. Dick Groat and Bob Costas were the event hosts of The MLB Network production, later aired on TV and then made available on DVD. The Post Gazette’s Bob Hoover wrote “Fans hailed the eight members of the '60 team invited for the showing, clapped rhythmically to start rallies, reacted loudly every time Roberto Clemente appeared on the screen and leapt to their feet for the two clutch home runs in the eighth (Hal Smith) and ninth (you know who) innings.”
- November 14, 1947 - The Bucs bought SS Stan Rojek, 29, from the Dodgers with plans to make him the starter in Pittsburgh; he was blocked by Pee Wee Reese in Brooklyn. He played 156 games and hit .290 in 1948, but faded after that season, became a backup in 1950 and was traded to the Cards in 1951.
- November 14, 1967 - RHP Paul Wagner was born in Milwaukee. A 12th round draft pick in 1989, he pitched for the Pirates for six campaigns, from 1992-97, mainly as a starter, and went 26-40/4.58 during that span.
- November 14, 1990 - RHP Doug Drabek, who posted a 22-6 record and a 2.76 ERA, was named the NL Cy Young winner, collecting 23 of a possible 24 first-place votes.
- November 14, 1996: The Pirates sent 2B Carlos Garcia, 1B/OF Orlando Merced and P Dan Plesac to the Toronto Blue Jays for P Jose Silva, IF Abraham Nunez, and OF Craig Wilson plus prospects SS Brandon Cromer, P Jose Pett and P Mike Halperin, who never got out of the minors.
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Byrd Flies Coop, Possible RF, 1B, P, SS Moves, More...
Marlon Byrd signed a reported two year, $16M contract with the Phillies today. With AJ looking less likely to return by the day, the FO is left in the enviable position to have a couple of bucks to spend, presumably on a first baseman and upper end pitcher.
The Bucs would have liked to keep Byrd as a bridge to Gregory Polanco, but weren't going to commit two years to him. And RF was never quite as pressing a need as some other spots. In the last month of 2013 (per Baseball Reference), Byrd went .309/.345/.444 with a .789 OPS and 2 HR, 10 RBI and 10 RS in 87 AB. Over the same span, Jose Tabata went .308/.348/.508 with an .856 OPS, 2 HR, 10 RBI and 7 RS in 70 AB. With Andrew Lambo due a look, the Bucs should be able to keep RF warm for Polanco without leaving the house.
As far as AJ is concerned, the longer he goes without a deal, the likelier it seems to us that he won't be returning to Pittsburgh. The FO doesn't want to blow a hole in the budget by offering him what seems a fair enough $14M; perhaps they're looking for a home-town discount or maybe the relationship has frayed at both ends.
At any rate, it should leave them enough money to bring in either James Loney (who would platoon with Gaby Sanchez) or Corey Hart to fill in at first base.
The three pitchers most often cited in the Bucco sights are Josh Johnson, Dan Haren and Bartolo Colon. They'll have enough to ink one of them, or whomever else strikes their sabermetric fancy, and may have the luxury of mid-season cavalry arriving in the arm of Jameson Taillon.
One last thing; we don't expect them to sign a FA shortstop, but we'd certainly not be surprised if they swung a deal for one. Several organizations are jammed up at the spot, though many others, including the Cards, are trawling the waters just like Pittsburgh, making for a competitive market. The Pirate system does have some pitching to offer, and guys like Jed Lowrey, Alexi Ramirez, Elvis Andrus and Asdrubal Cabrera are available to one degree or another.
Other notes:
The Bucs would have liked to keep Byrd as a bridge to Gregory Polanco, but weren't going to commit two years to him. And RF was never quite as pressing a need as some other spots. In the last month of 2013 (per Baseball Reference), Byrd went .309/.345/.444 with a .789 OPS and 2 HR, 10 RBI and 10 RS in 87 AB. Over the same span, Jose Tabata went .308/.348/.508 with an .856 OPS, 2 HR, 10 RBI and 7 RS in 70 AB. With Andrew Lambo due a look, the Bucs should be able to keep RF warm for Polanco without leaving the house.
As far as AJ is concerned, the longer he goes without a deal, the likelier it seems to us that he won't be returning to Pittsburgh. The FO doesn't want to blow a hole in the budget by offering him what seems a fair enough $14M; perhaps they're looking for a home-town discount or maybe the relationship has frayed at both ends.
At any rate, it should leave them enough money to bring in either James Loney (who would platoon with Gaby Sanchez) or Corey Hart to fill in at first base.
The three pitchers most often cited in the Bucco sights are Josh Johnson, Dan Haren and Bartolo Colon. They'll have enough to ink one of them, or whomever else strikes their sabermetric fancy, and may have the luxury of mid-season cavalry arriving in the arm of Jameson Taillon.
One last thing; we don't expect them to sign a FA shortstop, but we'd certainly not be surprised if they swung a deal for one. Several organizations are jammed up at the spot, though many others, including the Cards, are trawling the waters just like Pittsburgh, making for a competitive market. The Pirate system does have some pitching to offer, and guys like Jed Lowrey, Alexi Ramirez, Elvis Andrus and Asdrubal Cabrera are available to one degree or another.
Other notes:
- Jay Bell was hired as the bench coach of the Cincinnati Reds by Bryan Price, the Reds' new manager, who Bell had worked with in the Arizona organization. Congrats to Jay; it's a nice upward move on the road to becoming a manager one day.
- Neal Huntington lost the Sporting News MLB Exec of the Year award to Ben Cherington of Boston, whose worst-to-first reversal with the Red Sox outpolled Huntington's FA magic.
Monday, November 11, 2013
Monday Notes
As we approach next week's baseball meetings, when the fun should begin...
- AJ Burnett hasn't determined if he will retire or pitch for the Pirates in 2014. The Pirates' refusal to make a qualifying offer could be a factor; Burnett, 36, would have value on the market as a FA and could land a one or two year deal if he feels the Bucs are lowballing him.
- Clint Hurdle is the first Pittsburgh skipper that the local Rotary has named as "Chuck Tanner Manager of the Year." Their awards banquet has been a part of the Pittsburgh scene since 2007.
- Starting tonight, the Baseball Writers' four major awards - Rookie of the Year on Monday, manager of the Year on Tuesday, Cy Young on Wednesday and MVP on Thursday - will be announced on the MLB Network at 6PM each night. The Bucs have two horses in the race: Clint Hurdle for MOY and Cutch for MVP. The Bucs also have 11 nominations for the 2013 GIBBY (Greatness in Baseball Yearly) awards, given out during the baseball meetings later this month.
- MTV Networks and Major League Baseball said Monday they are collaborating on a weekly series that melds pop culture and baseball. Boston's Big Papi Ortiz and the Pirates Andrew McCutchen are the executive producers of the series, set to air next spring.
- Sometimes it pays to clean out the ol' closet. Bill Mazeroski’s collection of 1960 World Series stuff - jersey, spikes, bat, etc. - sold for $1.7M.
- The old gang is getting back together. New Seattle coach Lloyd McClendon is interviewing the Nats' Trent Jewett, who was part of his Pittsburgh staff and expected to join Legendary Lloyd and the Mariners.
- Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs has some team valuation figures for the MLB and the Bucs taken from Forbes and Bloomberg.
- The Braves confirmed that they're moving to Cobb County in 2017 from DT Atlanta and Turner Field.
11/10-11: Big Trade, Alleghenys, Cap'n Willie, Hot Rod, Rabbit, Jake Stenzel, Pie Traynor, George deTore, Jason Grilli...
Big Trade, Alleghenys, Cap'n Willie, Hot Rod, Rabbit, Jake Stenzel, Pie Traynor, George deTore, Jason Grilli...
- November 10, 1897 - The Pirates sent established veterans OF Elmer “Mike” Smith and RHP Pink Hawley along with $1,500 to the Reds for five players - C/1B Pop Schriver, OF Jack McCarthy, P Billy Rhines, 3B Bill Gray and 2b Ace Stewart. Of the players the Bucs received, Stewart never played a game, McCarty, Gray and Rhines lasted a season or two, and Pop stayed with Pittsburgh for three years, batting .260 as a part timer. Smith hit .342 for the Reds and Hawley went 27-11 in 1898 for the Reds. That would be their last hurrahs as neither had a strong campaign afterward and retired after the 1901 season.
- November 10, 1888 - The disbanding Detroit Wolverines sold Jack Rowe and Deacon White to the Pittsburgh Alleghenys. Both players had solid resumes, but were rolling downhill and lasted just a year with the Alleghenys. White, 41, was a Hall-of-Fame 3B, and hit .253 in 55 games, while Rowe, 32, played 75 games at SS, batting .259.
- November 10, 1971 - Joe Torre‚ who led the NL in RBI (137) and batting (.363) while hitting 24 HR‚ won the MVP Award over Willie Stargell (.295/48/125). Torre received 318 points to Stargell's 222.
- November 10, 2011 - The Pirates signed free agent C Rod Barajas to a 1 year/$4M contract with club option for 2013 ($3.5 million with no buyout). Hot Rod hit .206 and threw out just a half dozen baserunners all year; his option wasn’t exercised.
- November 11, 1891 - IF Walter “Rabbit” Maranville was born in Springfield, Massachusetts. The Hall of Famer spent four (1921-24) of his 23 big league seasons in Pittsburgh, hitting .283 during his stay. In 1922, he led the league with 746 PA and 672 AB, scoring 115 times.
- November 11, 1896: CF Jake Stenzel was traded along with bench players RHP Elmer Horton, OF Tom O'Brien and IF Harry Truby to the Baltimore Orioles for CF Steve Brodie and 3B Jim Donnelly. Stenzel, who had a .360 BA over five years with the Bucs, hit .353 with 116 RBI for the O’s in 1897. Brodie was released after 1-1/2 years in Pittsburgh and Donnelly only lasted one season. Brodie was re-signed by Baltimore after the Bucs let him go and hit .308 for them through 1899, replacing Stenzel who was traded to the St. Louis Browns after his big 1897 season.
- November 11, 1898 - Pie Traynor was born in Framingham, Massachusetts. The HoF 3B played 17 seasons (1920-35, 1937) for the Pirates with a career .320 BA. He hit over .300 ten times, had over 100 RBI in a season seven times, and was considered the top third baseman of his era.
- November 11, 1906 - Scout George Detore was born in Utica, New York. He served on Danny Murtaugh's MLB coaching staff during 1959 season, taking the place of Jimmy Dykes when he left the Pirates to become the manager of the Detroit Tigers. Detore joined Pittsburgh in 1950 as a New York based scout/scouting supervisor from 1955–58, 60-63 and then 69–86.
- November 11, 1976 - RHP Jason Grilli was born in Royal Oak, Michigan. Since signing as a minor league FA in 2011 out of the Philadelphia system, the veteran righty has successfully reinvented himself as a dominating back-end reliever, serving as Joel Hanrahan’s set-up man before taking control of the closer reins in 2013.
Saturday, November 9, 2013
11/8-9: Wally Westlake, Jay Bay, Billy Sunday, Nick Maddox, Johnny Gooch, Fred Brickell, Red Witt and Scott Sauerbeck...
Wally Westlake, Jay Bay, Billy Sunday, Nick Maddox, Johnny Gooch, Fred Brickell, Red Witt & Scott Sauerbeck...
- November 8, 1920 - 1B Wally Westlake was born in Gridley, California. He played 4-1/2 seasons for the Pirates (1947-51) and hit .281 with 97 HR in that span. Wally was an All-Star in 1951.
- November 8, 2004 - Jason Bay, who hit .282 with 26 HRs and 82 RBI, became the first Pirate (and Canadian) player to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
- November 9, 1862 - OF Billy Sunday was born in Ames, Iowa. Sunday spent three seasons (1888-90) with the Alleghenys before being traded for two players and $1,100 as an early salary dump because the team was broke. He was a flashy outfielder and speedster, but hit just .243 for Pittsburgh. But his true calling was as an evangelical preacher, and from the turn of the century until his death in 1935 he was renown for preaching non-denominational Christianity across the country. He used his reputation as a ballplayer to advance his later calling during its early years.
- November 9, 1886 - RHP Nick Maddox was born in Govanstown, Maryland. He tossed four years (1907-10) for Pittsburgh, his entire MLB career, with a 43-20/2.29 line. He tossed a no-hitter as a rookie, won 23 games in 1908 and a World Series contest in 1909. Maddox won his first four starts, something no other Pirate would match until Gerrit Cole in 2013. He stayed in Pittsburgh after his brief career ended, raising nine kids while holding down a job at the Fort Pitt Brewery.
- November 9, 1897 - C Johnny Gooch was born in Smyrna, Tennessee. He caught eight years (1921-28) for the Pirates, hitting .286 in a part-time role and was part of the 1925 and 1927 World Series clubs. He was a Pirate pitching coach and scout from 1937-42.
- November 9, 1906 - OF Fred Brickell was born in Saffordville, Kansas. Brickell played for Pittsburgh from 1926-30, hitting .312 as a reserve outfielder. His son Fritz also played in the major leagues from 1958 to 1961.
- November 9, 1931 - RHP George “Red” Witt was born in Long Beach, California. Red tossed for the Bucs from 1957-61, going 10-13/3.93 as a starter/long man, and worked three games in relief against the Yankees in the 1960 World Series without surrendering a run.
- November 9, 1971 - LHP Scott Sauerbeck was born in Cincinnati. The lefty spent the first five years (1999-2003) of his MLB career with Pittsburgh after being selected as a Rule 5 pick from the Mets. He went 19-15-5/3.56 in his Pirate time.
Parity: Show Me the Money...
Parity, schmarity. In the past few seasons, MLB has done all it can to tighten the rules so that small revenue clubs like the Bucs and their brethern have to scuffle even more to keep the pipeline flowing.
The Pirates broke the camel's back in the draft by overslotting Josh Bell. The Pirates picked Bell in the second round (61st overall) of the 2011 draft, although the high schooler told the clubs he wouldn't sign because he had a rock solid commitment to Texas. But the FO was pesistent, took its best shot, and Bell and the Pirates agreed to a contract with a $5M signing bonus shortly before the deadline, the highest bonus ever paid for a player drafted in the second round. In fact, the Pirates gave out a record $17M in signing bonuses to that class, or the equivalent of what you'd pay for one elite FA pitcher.
The grumbling brought about a cap on the amount spent on Top 10 picks, with the amount slotted for a player lost if he didn't sign. So the days of the overslot are gone, a Pittsburgh ploy that landed guys like OF Robbie Grossman (6th round -2008, flipped to the Astros as part of the Wandy Rodriguez deal), RHP Tyler Glasnow (5th round 2011 - $600K), RHP Clay Holmes (9th round 2011 - $1.2M) plus some hefty early round candy spread out to upper tier selections (Gerritt Cole; $8M as first overall in 2011) and generous payments to mid-round HS players.
It bit them in 2012 when RHP Mark Appel fell in their laps, but the Bucs were limited in their ability to negotiate with him by the newly imposed cap system. The offer he reportedly rejected from the Astros that year was equivalent to to Pittsburgh's entire draft pool.
There is a flip side to this; the larger market teams, with the support of the MLBPA, felt like revenues should be spent on major league payrolls, not the draft, which is an argument that led to caps in the NBA and NFL. Another is that if teams like the Pirates continued to be aggressive players in the overslot game, the big boys would eventually join in the fun and elbow them out.
An added benefit to the clubs that can afford offers is a chance to really rub the small market teams noses into it. Because New York and Boston can afford to extend qualifying offers, if they're rejected, the Yankees will have five fraft picks before the Pirates have two; the Red Sox will have four.
Another thing to watch is whether any traction is gained on adding Latino players to the draft. They've already capped the amount that can be spent on those FAs. The Pirates seemed to have worked around that in the early going - time will tell - but would lose a fruitful alternate player source, one that's supplied them with Starling Marte and guys like Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson and Luis Heredia if the international players are added to the draft pool.
The free agent qualifying system has always been a thorn to the smaller revenue clubs, but some managed a work-around by dealing for top players at the deadline and then offering them the qualifier at the end, secure in the knowledge that they were looking for greener pastures after the season. That loophole was removed; now only players that spent a full season with a club can receive an offer.
The offer is based on the average of the top 125 contracts; it was $13.3M in 2012 and $14.1M this season. So it's a bit pricy, although probably fair for the players involved, although for a guy like Kyle Lohse, not always. If the player accepts, he gets a year at the offered salary; if he turns it down, the team that loses him gets a sandwich pick and the team that signs him loses its highest pick (the top ten picks are protected, and of course there's no draft shuffle if he signs with his old team.)
This is a great improvement over the old Elias based "A & B free agent" system that led some players to a tacit agreement that they wouldn't be given an offer; most guys in this position are coming off good years and are looking for multi-year contracts, and a first round pick on top of a juicy agreement was often a deal killer. Most smaller revenue teams have countered by locking up their star players as well as they can with early deals through arbitration and the opening season or two of free agency to keep them off the market and in the home unis for a couple of extra seasons.
There are only two drawbacks. One is due to the inequality of revenues; Boston and the Yankees both gave out three qualifying offers, while teams with payrolls like the Pirates would be suicidal to tie up $42M in three players. Still, that's a market inequity, and that will always be in play.
On the other of the coin is the loss of the draft pick for signing a top gun, which takes development teams like Pittsburgh out of the hunt for elite FA, even if the financial resources are available. That could be fixed quite simply. Continue to give the team that loses a player their sandwich pick as compensation, but don't penalize the team that signed him. That should open up the marketplace to some added competition.
The Pirate model that was used by Neal Huntington to rebuild the system has eroded in the past couple of seasons; the way of all major sports now is to funnel money to the players with resumes, not the rookies. That's especially true of baseball, whose draftees take years to develop. And revenue roadblocks will continue; the Pirates and teams of their ilk with never be able to afford the posting fee for Japanese players, the crazy money for Cuban players, signing their veteran stars or the elite FA crop.
So that's the challenge ahead for Pittsburgh, Oakland, Tampa and the gang. The road is going to get rockier in the years ahead; the MLB is closing the ways the small revenue teams used to game the system. So unless some truer form of revenue sharing, especially of media rights, or a hard team salary cap is somewhere near the horizon, they'll have to continue to adapt develop new player acquisition strategies to keep up with the big boys.
The Pirates broke the camel's back in the draft by overslotting Josh Bell. The Pirates picked Bell in the second round (61st overall) of the 2011 draft, although the high schooler told the clubs he wouldn't sign because he had a rock solid commitment to Texas. But the FO was pesistent, took its best shot, and Bell and the Pirates agreed to a contract with a $5M signing bonus shortly before the deadline, the highest bonus ever paid for a player drafted in the second round. In fact, the Pirates gave out a record $17M in signing bonuses to that class, or the equivalent of what you'd pay for one elite FA pitcher.
The grumbling brought about a cap on the amount spent on Top 10 picks, with the amount slotted for a player lost if he didn't sign. So the days of the overslot are gone, a Pittsburgh ploy that landed guys like OF Robbie Grossman (6th round -2008, flipped to the Astros as part of the Wandy Rodriguez deal), RHP Tyler Glasnow (5th round 2011 - $600K), RHP Clay Holmes (9th round 2011 - $1.2M) plus some hefty early round candy spread out to upper tier selections (Gerritt Cole; $8M as first overall in 2011) and generous payments to mid-round HS players.
It bit them in 2012 when RHP Mark Appel fell in their laps, but the Bucs were limited in their ability to negotiate with him by the newly imposed cap system. The offer he reportedly rejected from the Astros that year was equivalent to to Pittsburgh's entire draft pool.
There is a flip side to this; the larger market teams, with the support of the MLBPA, felt like revenues should be spent on major league payrolls, not the draft, which is an argument that led to caps in the NBA and NFL. Another is that if teams like the Pirates continued to be aggressive players in the overslot game, the big boys would eventually join in the fun and elbow them out.
An added benefit to the clubs that can afford offers is a chance to really rub the small market teams noses into it. Because New York and Boston can afford to extend qualifying offers, if they're rejected, the Yankees will have five fraft picks before the Pirates have two; the Red Sox will have four.
Another thing to watch is whether any traction is gained on adding Latino players to the draft. They've already capped the amount that can be spent on those FAs. The Pirates seemed to have worked around that in the early going - time will tell - but would lose a fruitful alternate player source, one that's supplied them with Starling Marte and guys like Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson and Luis Heredia if the international players are added to the draft pool.
The free agent qualifying system has always been a thorn to the smaller revenue clubs, but some managed a work-around by dealing for top players at the deadline and then offering them the qualifier at the end, secure in the knowledge that they were looking for greener pastures after the season. That loophole was removed; now only players that spent a full season with a club can receive an offer.
The offer is based on the average of the top 125 contracts; it was $13.3M in 2012 and $14.1M this season. So it's a bit pricy, although probably fair for the players involved, although for a guy like Kyle Lohse, not always. If the player accepts, he gets a year at the offered salary; if he turns it down, the team that loses him gets a sandwich pick and the team that signs him loses its highest pick (the top ten picks are protected, and of course there's no draft shuffle if he signs with his old team.)
This is a great improvement over the old Elias based "A & B free agent" system that led some players to a tacit agreement that they wouldn't be given an offer; most guys in this position are coming off good years and are looking for multi-year contracts, and a first round pick on top of a juicy agreement was often a deal killer. Most smaller revenue teams have countered by locking up their star players as well as they can with early deals through arbitration and the opening season or two of free agency to keep them off the market and in the home unis for a couple of extra seasons.
There are only two drawbacks. One is due to the inequality of revenues; Boston and the Yankees both gave out three qualifying offers, while teams with payrolls like the Pirates would be suicidal to tie up $42M in three players. Still, that's a market inequity, and that will always be in play.
On the other of the coin is the loss of the draft pick for signing a top gun, which takes development teams like Pittsburgh out of the hunt for elite FA, even if the financial resources are available. That could be fixed quite simply. Continue to give the team that loses a player their sandwich pick as compensation, but don't penalize the team that signed him. That should open up the marketplace to some added competition.
The Pirate model that was used by Neal Huntington to rebuild the system has eroded in the past couple of seasons; the way of all major sports now is to funnel money to the players with resumes, not the rookies. That's especially true of baseball, whose draftees take years to develop. And revenue roadblocks will continue; the Pirates and teams of their ilk with never be able to afford the posting fee for Japanese players, the crazy money for Cuban players, signing their veteran stars or the elite FA crop.
So that's the challenge ahead for Pittsburgh, Oakland, Tampa and the gang. The road is going to get rockier in the years ahead; the MLB is closing the ways the small revenue teams used to game the system. So unless some truer form of revenue sharing, especially of media rights, or a hard team salary cap is somewhere near the horizon, they'll have to continue to adapt develop new player acquisition strategies to keep up with the big boys.
Friday, November 8, 2013
Hot Stove Trolling, Notes...
Profiles of some potential 2014 Pirates...
- Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects has a "Player Rewind" of RHP Tyler Glasnow.
- Tom Singer of MLB.com checks out the return of RHP Phil Irwin, now working in the Arizona League after losing the 2013 season to surgery.
- Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors looks at FA 1B James Loney of Tampa. As an added twig to toss into the fire, he switched reps and went to Legacy Sports, which is Francisco Liriano's group (although they have different agents).
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs doesn't agree that FA 1B Kendrys Morales of the Mariners is all that.
- Ken Davidoff of the NY Post predicts AJ will sign with the Bucs for one year/$11M and so will Marlon Byrd, for one year/$8M. He rates them as Top-25 Free Agents this season.
- Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated has a Hot Stove preview of the Buccos and the NL Central.
- Russ Martin was selected as the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year for the Pirates.
- Do you recall two-sport star Pirate OF'er Tyler Gaffney, who left the Bucs and returned to Stanford for his senior year? He rushed for 157 yards against Oregon last night.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Silver Sluggers, Pirate Notes
And the beat goes on...
- Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez were named 2013 NL Silver Slugger Award winners, honoring the best offensive players at each position. Cutch won for the second straight season, while Alvarez was a first-time winner. The Silver Slugger, which was first awarded in 1980, is voted on by coaches and managers from both leagues.
- Chris Cotilla of The Daily Dish mentioned free agent SS Rafael Furcal and the Pirates in the same breath...
- JJ Cooper of Baseball America explains how Stolmy Pimentel is out of options at age 23.
- MLB.com's Philly beat writer Todd Zolecki posted that Pirate pitching coordinator Jim Benedict told Philadelphia he was going to remain with Pittsburgh. That's a plus for the Buccos; Benedict was said to have interviewed well and as Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects writes, has mentored his share of success stories for the organization.
- Pirate Fest will be held at the David Lawrence Convention Center on December 14-15th. The Caravan schedule will begin that week.
- Jack Moore from Sports on Earth posts that nothing illuminates the changing of the guard like Brad Ausmus taking over for Jimmy Leyland.
- Speaking of changing the guard, the Astrodome is about to join TRS in the scrap heap of history. Ted Berg of USA Today remembers some of its less known highlights.
11/6-7: SS Swap, Branch Rickey, Candy Man, Stu, Kris Benson...
Shortstop Swap, Branch Rickey, Candy Man, Stu, Kris Benson...
- November 6, 1930 - IF Dick Bartell was traded by the Pirates to the Philadelphia Phillies for IF Tommy Thevenow and Claude Willoughby. Thevenow spent six season with the Bucs and hit .251 while Willoughby went 0-2 for Pittsburgh in his final MLB season. Bartell played 14 more seasons and ended up with a .281 lifetime BA as the Bucs ended up on the short end of the SS swap.
- November 6, 1950 - Branch Rickey signed a five-year contract with the Pirates to become the team executive vice president/GM, replacing Roy Hamey. His son, Branch Jr., assumed the post of Pittsburgh's VP and farm system director.
- November 6, 1953 - LHP John Candelaria was born in New York. The Bucs selected the LaSalle Academy (Brooklyn) star in the second round of the 1972 draft. In 12 years (1975-85, 1993) with the Pirates, his line was 124-8716.3.17, with a 1-1, 3.91 ERA mark in his four post-season starts. The Candy Man earned one All-Star nod in his 19 yeat MLB career.
- November 7, 1932 - 1B Dick Stuart was born in San Francisco. “Dr. Strangeglove” played in Pittsburgh from 1958-62, hitting .273 with 117 bombs as a Bucco, and was a 1961 All-Star after losing 35 baseballs. The slugger’s inability to field was legendary; he was once hit in the back when Roberto Clemente threw behind a runner, and received an ovation for spearing a hot dog wrapper blowing past him at Forbes Field. Stu also mashed 66 home runs for the Lincoln club of the Class A Western League in 1956, so his glove wasn’t the main reason he got a paycheck.
- November 7, 1974 - RHP Kris Benson was born in Kennesaw, Georgia. The first overall selection of the 1996 draft, the Clemson grad pitched for the Pirates from 1999-2004 (missing 2001 after TJ surgery) with a line of 43-49/4.26.
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