Monday: About That Rest Day...

Yep, the ol' Clay Holmes day of rest for the starters kinda backfired; seems like the Pirates "overcooked" that one and it may have cost them the series in San Francisco (although after his previous start, Holmes looked solid; it wasn't a throw-away). Assistant GM Kevan Graves said on yesterday's radio show that the move was driven by biometrics that show recovery time from an outing at Coors Field is increased, hence the move. And we don't doubt that played a part in the decision; the Bucs' FO likes to be included among the IT cool kids. But we wonder...

Some suspect it's because of nagging minor aches that the staff is going through, although we've seen nor heard no reports to substantiate that. Others think it's to align the rotation for the series after the Twins when the Bucs face foes they're fighting for a postseason spot 16 straight times, but that doesn't wash either as everyone gets three turns (one guy will get a fourth start) unless there's some juggling with the couple of off days between the sets, but we think that's doubtful, too.

How many innings will the Bucs allow Jamo? (photo: Joe Guzy/Pirates)

Our read is that the team's concerned about how many innings the relatively green staff will put up. The rule of thumb for young pitchers is a 20%/30 IP increase over the previous season. Warhorses like Chris Archer and Ivan Nova have a track record of eating innings, but what about Jamo, Willy and Big Joe? Per a little back-of-the-envelope math:

With 8-9 starts left if everyone gets their turn, we can assume everyone has 45-55 innings of work left during the regular season. Willy worked 150-1/3 IP last year and is at 123 to date in 2018 so he's in good shape (180 IP max); J-Grove tossed 125 frames in 2017 and is at 91-2/3 now (150-55 IP max), so he's under the wire, too. But Jamo has already equaled his 2017 workload of 134 innings. Throwing Holmes bought JT a brief blow, but he averages six inning per start, and that puts him on track to spin over 180 IP with his 160-65 innings worked being his max.

So our take is that the "biometrics" have more to do with trying to limit the innings worked within that 20%-30 IP parameter, a challenging task in the dog days during a wild card chase. Willy and Big Joe are both projected to approach the outer limit of their innings and Jamo will go well overboard. If the Pirates hang around into September, the FO and Clint will have some interesting - and conflicting - decisions to make.

We'll see how they cope if they remain in the hunt - maybe an "opener" or "bullpenning" start or two, maybe a sixth guy/spot starter inserted again, like Holmes, Nick Kingham, Chad Kuhl or Mitch Keller, or maybe just a regular rotation. Science!